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11. Fewer commuters to the CAZ creates a challenge, relative to its global rivals
The Economic Future of the Central Activity Zone (CAZ) Phase 1: Office use trends and the CAZ ecosystem Report to the Greater London Authority (GLA)
There is a longer-term opportunity to drive more CAZ footfall through a greater residential population
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Compared with London, New York and Paris have a much denser population within their central areas, and shorter travel distances overall, meaning that approximately 3x more people live within a short walk or cycle of their centre. A permanent shift to home working therefore risks impact more substantially on CAZ footfall than in central areas in these global cities, both because of the first order impacts from working at home, and the second order impacts from a reduced number of people willing to make a journey into the CAZ from their home location after work. Looking towards the long term, future increases in the CAZ’s residential population, in line with or even exceeding Mayoral and government plans, would partly mitigate this, and continue the pre-COVID-19 trends. London’s cycle route network is currently concentrated on the CAZ. The travel distances involved suggest that the CAZ is well-placed to benefit from a growth in travel in active modes such as cycles and e-scooters, if licensed, especially given the CAZ’s key dependency on middle-distance trips from inner London. In order to encourage greater footfall in the CAZ, it is imperative that the CAZ is a more attractive location so that office workers and others will want to visit. Longer term, there is a case for significantly increasing CAZ residential populations in line with the Publication London Plan (2020b) and the December 2020 government statement on housing need.
Unsplash: Clay LeConey
The Economic Future of the Central Activity Zone (CAZ) Phase 1: Office use trends and the CAZ ecosystem Report to the Greater London Authority (GLA)
11. Fewer commuters to the CAZ creates a challenge, relative to its global rivals
The CAZ is less densely populated than central Paris and lower Manhattan
Population density in London and the CAZ (Source: ONS, Population Estimates, 2019 and LSOA shapefiles from the London Data Store to calculate the surface for each LSOA)
Population density in Ile de France and central Paris
ISource: NSEE, 2017, and IRIS shapefile from the IGN Institut de l’information geographique et forestiere to calculate the surface for each IRIS)
Population density in New York and lower Manhattan
(Source: US Census Bureau, 2019 ACT 5-year estimates and census tract shapefile from US census bureau to calculate the surface of each census tract)
The Economic Future of the Central Activity Zone (CAZ) Phase 1: Office use trends and the CAZ ecosystem Report to the Greater London Authority (GLA)
11. Fewer commuters to the CAZ creates a challenge, relative to its global rivals
The CAZ’s walking and short cycle catchment is smaller than that in central Paris and New York
~45,000 residents live within 1.25km / 15 minute walk of Trafalgar Square ~355,000 residents live within 3km of Trafalgar Square ~120,000 residents live within 1.25km / 15 minute walk of Notre Dame de Paris ~700,000 residents live within 3km of Notre Dame de Paris ~140,000 residents live within 1.25km / 15 minute walk of Times Square ~600,000 residents live within 3km of Times Square
London, Paris and New York 15-min walking (1.25km) and cycling catchment areas (3km) (Sources: ONS, Population Estimates, 2019; INSEE, 2017; US Census Bureau, ACT 5-year, 2019)
The Economic Future of the Central Activity Zone (CAZ) Phase 1: Office use trends and the CAZ ecosystem Report to the Greater London Authority (GLA)
12. Opportunities for change in the CAZ and across London
