COMMENT | 31
Is BREXIT a runaway train?
From where I'm sitting - Howard Knott - howard@fleet.ie
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t the time of writing, the big issues on radio and TV are COV ID-19 and the Government formation. Soon, all will be calm on both matters and the slow climb back to whatever the new normal is in both health and politics will have got underway. Maybe the sun will be shining, and people may be tempted to think of long lazy days on the beach stretching ahead. The bad news is that that would be a forlorn hope, as the thundering freight train that is Brexit will be bearing down on all the European Union (EU) and on Ireland in particular. It is a train that might have got buried in the COVID undergrowth for a number of months, but as the June deadline for the UK to request an extension of the Transition period towards the fi nal separation passed, the whole picture has become much scarier. Neither side can claim that any real progress had been made in the discussions and with complete silence from the UK side on the extension, more talk of ‘terrific’ trade deals is required. Th is morning I listened in to a Zoom talk organised by the Irish Exporters Association and addressed by Máiréad McGuinness, Vice-President of the European Parliament. As ever, she was extremely succinct and calm and appeared to be willing to give all of those involved in the negotiations between the EU Text: Howard Knott - howard@fleet.ie
and the UK the benefit of any possible doubt. Her message was crystal-clear however, that come 31 December next the Transition period will be over and whatever form of agreement has been negotiated will swing into place. If there is no agreement, then we are all in for an extremely difficult few years. Just to make things even gloomier, I had not realised that, in order to get any sort of Trade deal into place in time for the breakup, it will have to be agreed by, at the latest, mid-October. Then it will have to go to each of the EU Parliaments and to the UK Parliament for ratification, before coming into effect. I recall that a couple of years ago when the EU fi nally got a trade deal agreed with the Canadian Government after, I think, it was seven years of negotiation, the whole thing was held up for months by a Belgian Regional Government. Th is time only national Governments will be making decisions, but that’s still twentyeight parliaments agreeing to something that impacts in quite different ways on each Government. All of this means that the promised supercharged negotiations that are planned to start in early July will have to be wrapped up by the end of September, all during a period in which some, at least, would like to be taking their annual holidays.
Clearly some deal is better than no deal, particularly one that enables trade to continue without any tariff s, quotas or other trade impediments. However, even then any business making or buying any of the one billion euro a week worth of product traded between Ireland and the UK is facing into a completely new world of controls and regulations. Freight Forwarders and others involved in the facilitation of the movement of goods across the Irish Sea, together with the carriers of those goods will be at the sharp end of all of this. Despite the promises of no visible border on the island of Ireland, businesses trading between both parts of Ireland will not be able to escape some form of surveillance to ensure that products that do not meet the technical standards being maintained in the other bloc do not slip through. The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed the BREXIT preparedness training for all parties involved in trading involving the UK to one side. It is now imperative that all of that is dusted down and everybody is fully brought up to speed. Th is must involve not just putt ing the paperwork and IT into place, but also real live trials at ports and airports as well as on board ships and aircraft . 1 January, 2021, when ferries are queuing up outside Irish Sea ports, will be too late to fi nd out that something was missed in the preparation. www.fleet.ie
