Participatory Scenario Planning in the Arctic

Page 1

Participatory

Scenario planning [ in the Arctic ] A background on using the participatory scenario planning approach in Arctic climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability research. Flynn et al. 2017.

Traditional Livelihoods

Resource Management & Extraction

29%

21%

Sectors using scenario planning

Other

6%

Health

19%

Tourism

8%

Community Planning

Shipping

8%

9%

*N=43

THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF SCENARIO APPROACH

84%

Forecasting

16%

Considering the future from the vantage point of the present

BAckcasting

Creating a desirable future situation & identifying steps to achieve that future

6

Though most studies identified used the forecasting approach... We found that the backcasting approach had higher community participation

Stages of scenario planning Which stages did the studies complete?

1

Gather context

2

Identify key drivers

3

Create Scenario

4

Review scenario

5

Identify options

6

Rate options Completed without community participation

Legend

Completed with community participation

USE OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE 67% Of studies utilized local (LK) or traditional knowledge (TK)...

Not completed

KEY CHALLENGES Time taken to complete the process Large distances to travel to reach community Difficulty in integrating LK/TK Difficulty in integrating global data with local data Limited data availability

...Though some studies identified challenges in integrating LK or TK in the process soURCE:

Requires significant financial input

Flynn M., J. D. Ford, T. Pearce, S. L. Harper & IHACC Team. 2017. Participatory scenario planning and climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability research in the Arctic. Environmental Science and Policy.. 79, 45–53. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2017.10.012


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