TRAC3 Emerging Research Results 2015

Emerging Research Results

Are We Adapting to Climate Change?

In recent years adaptation has gained considerable interest around the world and adaptation actions have been reported in different contexts and at different administrative levels. Although existing studies examining the state of the adaptation landscape provide valuable first steps in gaining contextual understanding of the adaptation process across scales, it is still a fragmented picture of adaptation, at best.

New questions emerging that require different explanatory approaches to study adaptation include: How has adaptation progress been taking place globally? Is society adapting more than previously? What conditions drive adaptation?

Why have some countries progressed as they did? Which variables can explain how countries have arranged their governance of adaptation? Have investments in concrete adaptation policies been legitimate and effective? What are valuable predictors of how adaptation takes place?

How does adaptation policy perform?

Challenge of Tracking Adaptation

Measuring adaptation progress is a unique challenge because unlike for mitigation, where GHGs provide a measurable outcome by which the effectiveness of climate policy can be assessed, there are no ‘off-the-shelf’ metrics for adaptation. Tracking adaptation therefore requires overcoming conceptual, methodological and empirical challenges.

Conceptual Challenges: What constitutes adaptation is unclear and indistinctive; some of the existing policy efforts contribute to reducing climate variability but are not framed as such whereas other efforts are labeled as adaptation, but hardly contribute to solving

any of the adaptation challenges. Tracking adaptation therefore requires further conceptual disentangling of what adaptation means, better understanding of the key components and identification of comparable measurement indicators across cases.

Methodological Challenges: The idea of tracking adaptation is to go beyond the descriptive and contextualized, and search for methods of standardization, develop indicators and proxies, test hypotheses, identify predictors of adaptation action, and construct a baseline for analysis. Such methods have been used in other domains, but only sporadically in the context of adaptation. Considering the conceptual challenges, these methods need to be developed and tailored to adaptation characteristics in order to engage with adaptation tracking.

Empirical Challenges: Tracking adaptation requires the production of comprehensive datasets. Existing datasets are often static, capturing only a small timeframe. In most cases datasets are non-existent and need to be developed from qualitative data in order to properly track adaptation.

This systematic data collection process needs to be repeated in order to construct a longitudinal database from which to start tracking adaptation over time.

TRAC3 Emerging Results

TRAC3 was launched in 2014. Here, we present early TRAC3 research outputs, as well as relevant pre-2014 publications. Though some of these publications were not developed as TRAC3, they were all led by authors that are now members of TRAC3, reflect the research directions of the consortium, and demonstrate the foundational research that led to the creation of TRAC3.

Tracking adaptation ... requires overcoming conceptual, methodological and empirical challenges.

Key Publications Dupuis, J., & Biesbroek, R. (2013). Comparing apples and oranges: The dependent variable problem in comparing and evaluating climate change adaptation policies. Global Environmental Change, 23(6), 1476-1487.

Ford, J. D., Berrang-Ford, L., Lesnikowski, A., Barrera, M., & Heymann, S. J. (2013). How to Track Adaptation to Climate Change: A Typology of Approaches for National-Level Application. Ecology and Society, 18(3), 40.

Bangkok, Thailand: Flood 2011 Photo by Chrisgel Ryan Cruz (Flickr)

Climatic extremes were found to be more important in motivating action than anticipated long-term changes in climate.

Key Publications

Oregon, United States: Ice Storm Damage 2014 Photo by Wolfram Burner (Flickr)

Araos, M., Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J., Austin, S. E., & Biesbroek, R. (in preparation). Adaptation in large cities: a systematic global assessment.

Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J., and Paterson, J. (2011). Are we adapting to climate change? Global Environmental Change (21): 25-33.

Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., Barrera, M., Berry, P., Heymann, J. (2014). How are we adapting to climate change? A global assessment.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

Global Trends

Berrang-Ford et al. (2011) Summary

A key method used by TRAC3 is systematic review.

Berrang-Ford et al. (2011) is an early example of how systematic literature reviews can be applied to the field of adaptation research. The review analyzed peer-review, English language literature to assess if and how adaptation is occurring globally, documenting 87 articles that described human adaptation to climate change. Across regions, and where adaptations were recorded, climatic extremes were found to be more important in motivating action than anticipated long-term changes in climate.

Nonetheless, higher levels of government were found to be more likely to undertake anticipatory adaptations in some nations, with individuals and households more likely to respond to existing stimuli like market conditions and resource availability. This trend is mediated by national socio-economic status, however, as low-income countries were generally characterized by reactive adaptations and high-income countries were characterized by anticipatory adaptations.

Global Assessment of National Adaptation Lesnikowski et al. (2013) Summary

A critical component of tracking adaptation is the creation of comprehensive datasets that provide a baseline for analysis over time. Lesnikowski et al. (2013) is the largest dataset to date from TRAC3 collaborators.

The goal of the project was to establish a baseline understanding of the state of adaptation across high, medium, and low-income countries around the world. In total 4,104 discrete adaptation initiatives were identified from 117 countries using information contained in the National Communications to the UNFCCC. Findings

are characterized on a country level, and contribute to our understanding of where adaptation is occurring, the nature of initiatives being pursued, and which sectors and stakeholders are more frequently engaged in adaptation.

Nearly three-quarters of the reported adaptation initiatives constituted capacity-building work to inform and prepare for adaptation implementation. The remaining initiatives constituted tangible steps to reduce vulnerability, for example legislative reform or infrastructure improvements.

The agriculture, environment, and water sectors emerged as leading sectors in adaptation implementation, reflecting high levels of concern with water, food, and ecosystem vulnerability. Some of the countries with the highest levels of adaptation implementation included Australia, Belgium, Saint Lucia, and Finland.

Global Assessment of Urban Adaptation Araos et al. (in preparation) Summary

Cities globally face significant risks from climate change, and are taking an increasingly active role in formulating and implementing climate change adaptation policy. Yet there are few, if any, global assessments of adaptation taking place across cities. This study tests a framework to track urban climate change adaptation policy using municipal adaptation reporting, and presents baseline trends in reported adaptation among global cities. We analyze 401 local governments globally in urban areas with >1m people, and find that only 61 cities (15%) report any adaptation initiatives, and 73 cities (18%) report on planning towards adaptation policy. Results and the full publication are forthcoming, and will be followed by continued TRAC3 work focusing on adaptation tracking in cities globally.

Adaptation in Europe

National-level progress on adaptation

Biesbroek et al. (2010) & Massey, Biesbroek et al. Lesnikowski et al. (2015) Summary (2014) Summaries As adaptation obligations under the UNFCCC In recent years, European countries have progressed significantly on adaptation. Finland was the first EU country to adopt a national adaptation strategy in 2005, and by 2008 only 8 European countries had adopted a formal adaptation strategy. Increasingly countries have begun to exchange ideas, share experiences and develop new tools.

This policy diffusion process across Europe has resulted in a steady increase in the formal adoption of national adaptation strategies and plans. In mid-2014, the European Environment Agency – supported by, amongst others, Dr. Robbert Biesbroek (TRAC3 member) – published their national assessment report finding that 21 out of the 30 European countries have now adopted a national adaptation strategy, with a number of sector specific and regional plans being developed and adopted. Analyzing progress within countries suggests that in the UK adaptation has progressed further than elsewhere in Europe. Our research shows that with the incremental increase of adaptation strategies and plans, European countries increasingly converge in how they tackle adaptation; for example, most countries have similar forms of horizontal and vertical coordination, dedicated knowledge programs, soft policy instruments, and dedicated institutions or organisations to deal with adaptation. The observed learning effect is mostly due to early adopting countries such as the UK and Finland that were considered to have good institutions for adaptation and have served as examples for lagging countries. The EU’s recent efforts to push for adaptation policies increasingly focus on local and regional initiatives, providing a new need for tracking adaptation.

evolve, more rigorous approaches to measuring adaptation progress among Parties are critical. This paper presents evidence on policy change for 41 high-income countries between 2010 and 2014. We examine whether countries that were in early stages of adaptation planning in 2010 are making progress to close adaptation gaps, and how the landscape of adaptation in these countries has evolved.

In total we find an 87% increase in reported adaptation policies and measures, and evidence that implementation of concrete adaptation initiatives is growing. Reflecting on the strengths and challenges of this early methodology, we further discuss how adaptation tracking practices could guide development of a robust framework for monitoring global adaptation progress and inform future research on policy change across countries.

Public Health Adaptation in OECD Countries Austin et al. (submitted) Summary

National governments play a key role in coordinating and facilitating adaptation to protect population health from climate change risks. In this study we systematically review and evaluate how national governments are adapting to the health risks posed by climate change in ten OECD countries. The findings suggest that national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasising capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We identify three key dimensions of national governance that are critical for public health adaptation: inter-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national adaptation planning.

The EU’s recent efforts to push for adaptation policies increasingly focus on local and regional initiatives, providing a new need for tracking adaptation.

Key Publications Austin, S. E., Biesbroek, R., Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J. D., Parker, S., & Fleury, M. D. (submitted). Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries.

Biesbroek, G. R., Swart, R. J., Carter, T. R., Cowan, C., Henrichs, T., Mela, H., . . . Rey, D. (2010). Europe adapts to climate change: comparing national adaptation strategies. Global Environmental Change, 20(3), 440450.

Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J., Biesbroek, R., Berrang-Ford, L., & Heymann, S. J. (2015). National-level progress on adaptation. Nature Climate Change.

Massey, E., Biesbroek, R., Huitema, D. and A. Jordan (2014) Climate policy innovation: The adoption and diffusion of adaptation policies across Europe, Global Environmental Change.

London, United Kingdom: Heatwave 2013 Photo by David Mills (Flickr)

Some Canadian cities have implemented coordinated approaches to health adaptation, while others have yet to develop adaptation plans.

Key Publications Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., and Paterson, J. (2011). A systematic review of observed climate change adaptation in developed nations. Climatic Change 106(2): 327-336.

Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., Paterson, J., Barrera, M., & Heymann, S. (2011). Adapting to health impacts of climate change: a study of UNFCCC Annex I parties. Environmental Research Letters, 6(4).

Austin, S. E., Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., Araos, M., Parker, S., & Fleury, M. D. (2015). Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12(1), 623-651.

Calgary, Canada: Flood 2013 Photo by Wilson Hui (Flickr)

Adaptation in UNFCCC Annex I Countries

Public Health Adaptation in Canadian Jurisdictions

TRAC3 researches how systematic methodologies can be applied to different data sources. This flexibility is critical because it diversifies our knowledge of adaptation across scales, sectors, and stakeholders. In one study conducted by TRAC3 collaborators, amongst others, (Ford et al., 2011) we drew on a global adaptation dataset we previously created from peer-reviewed literature about adaptation actions (Berrang-Ford et al., 2011).

From the dataset we examined stimuli behind adaptation efforts, barriers in the adaptation process, sectors and stakeholders involved in adaptation, and activities or outcomes that constitute adaptation. In another study we used policy documents to create an inventory of health adaptation actions among Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC (Lesnikowski et al., 2011). Specifically, the work assessed self-reported adaptation progress from the National Communications, which are the UNFCCC’s reporting mechanism on adherence to the convention goals. This framework focused on characterizing adaptation actions and capturing the sectors and stakeholders involved in their design and implementation. We achieved the first systematic inventory of adaptation actions within the health sector, and provided the foundation for future studies on adaptation across sectors using the National Communications (e.g. Lesnikowski et al., 2013). The findings from these studies demonstrate the similarities and differences in information that can be gathered from different kinds of data sources.

methodologies are particularly effective in identifying adaptation gaps within or between sectors and across scales of governance. In Austin et al. (in review), we applied a systematic review of grey literature in the Canadian public health sector to assess federal, provincial, territorial, and municipal adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. Federal health adaptation initiatives were found to generally emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address primarily general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Under Canada’s jurisdictional structure, responsibility for health and environment fall to the provinces and territories, limiting the federal role, yet provincial and territorial adaptation is widely varied.

The province of Quebec emerges as a leader in climate change adaptation, stemming from a supportive political climate, stable funding and public willingness. Most other provinces and territories have adaptation plans but are still in the early stages of adaptation, implementing few health adaptation initiatives. Adaptation in Canada’s six largest municipalities is piece-meal and ad-hoc.

Some cities have implemented coordinated approaches to health adaptation, while others have yet to develop adaptation plans. Provincial and territorial adaptation also does not appear to exert a strong influence on municipal adaptation: Quebec is a leader in provincial adaptation, while Montreal, Quebec’s largest city, reported few health focused adaptations; British Columbia has implemented few health adaptation initiatives, but its largest city Vancouver is progressing autonomously.

Ford et al. (2011) & Lesnikowski et al. (2011) Austin et al. (2015) Summary Summaries Systematic adaptation tracking

Drivers of Adaptation

Berrang-Ford et al. (2014) Summary

A key focus of adaptation tracking work conducted todate is the identification and characterization of adaptation actions being undertaken. Increasingly we are beginning to ask: what drives adaptation? In one of the first studies of its kind in the adaptation field, TRAC3 collaborators, amongst others, we tested whether theorized determinants of adaptive capacity are associated with adaptation policy outcomes at the national level for 117 nations (BerrangFord et al., 2014). The research shows that institutional capacity, in particular measures of good governance, are the strongest predictors of national adaptation policy.

Adaptation at the national level is limited in countries with poor governance, and in the absence of good governance other presumed determinants of adaptive capacity show limited effect on adaptation. The work highlights the importance of institutional good governance as a prerequisite for national adaptation, with other elements of theorized adaptive capacity unlikely to be sufficient, effective, or present at the national level where national institutions and governance are poor.

Barriers to Adaptation

Massey, Biesbroek et al. (2014) Summary

Where there are drivers of adaptation there are also numerous factors that complicate adaptation. These barriers are increasingly being studied to understand how they can be addressed in practice. Research in Europe shows that while external factors (e.g. extreme weather events, international policies) are important drivers of country engagement in adaptation, internal barriers have a stronger influence on whether countries really start adapting. Findings from Massey, Biesbroek et al (2014) suggest that lack of resources, lack of political awareness

and lack of institutional capacity are the three key internal barriers. External barriers, including connection to other countries, EU policies, and language barriers, exercised a significantly lower influence on national adaptation decisions. In addition, adopting a national policy does not automatically translate into action on the ground as it can merely be symbolic policy. Prutsch, Biesbroek et al. (in review) suggest that in Europe the move from policy planning to adaptation implementation is confronted by serious barriers, making implementation a key hurdle.

These findings suggest that efforts to enable countries to adapt are largely determined by different ideas on how to overcome the barriers, for example by learning from experiences or encouraging innovative practices.

Continuously tracking progress on adaptation is, therefore, necessary to see if attempts to overcome barriers are effective.

Adaptation tracking for a post-2015 climate agreement Ford et al. (2015) Summary

A post-2015 climate agreement will require systematic approaches for tracking adaptation progress across Parties to the UNFCCC. A number of steps need to be taken to improve adaptation measurement and reporting herein, including: the development of an operational definition of adaptation; Parties need to decide what information needs to be tracked; an adaptation baseline is required; and systematic reporting on adaptation is needed.

Adopting a national policy does not automatically translate in action on the ground

Key Publications Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J., Lesnikowski, A., Poutiainen, C., Barrera, M., and

Heymann, S.J. (2014). What drives national adaptation? A global assessment. Climatic Change Letters 124 (1-2), 441-450.

Biesbroek, G. R., Klostermann, J. E. M., Termeer, C. J. A. M., & Kabat, P. (2013). On the nature of barriers to climate change adaptation. Regional Environmental Change, 13(5), 1119-1129.

Ford, J. D., & King, D. (2013). A framework for examining adaptation readiness. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1-22.

Ford, J. D., Berrang-Ford, L., Biesbroek, R., Araos, M., Austin, S. E., & Lesnikowski, A. (2015). Adaptation tracking for a post-2015 climate agreement. Nature Climate Change, 5(11), 967-969.

Massey, E., Biesbroek, R., Huitema, D., & Jordan, A. (2014). Climate policy innovation: The adoption and diffusion of adaptation policies across Europe. Global Environmental Change.

Adaptation policies in Europe: from planning to action.

New York City, United States: Hurricane Sandy 2012 Photo by Metropolitan Transport Authority / Patrick Cashin (Flickr)

About TRAC3 TRAC3 was created in 2014 by Drs Ford, Berrang-Ford, and Biesbroek to tackle the challenges of adaptation tracking. Combining separate but complementary research efforts on the topic, and integrating expertise from geography, political science, and epidemiology, TRAC3 seeks to: develop and test new scientific conceptualisations of adaptation; develop new and innovative methodologies for tracking adaptation across nations, regions, and sectors; build empirical datasets of adaptation actions in multiple contexts; catalyze research on adaptation tracking at various scales; inform assessments on the state of adaptation at national and regional levels; and provide strategic advice to the public and private sectors on gaps and needs in adaptation policy and action. The Consortium is based out of McGill University in Canada and Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

TRAC3 Main Collaborators Dr. Lea Berrang Ford McGill University Montreal, Canada www.leaberrangford.ca lea.berrangford@mcgill.ca Dr. Robbert Biesbroek Wageningen University Wageningen, the Netherlands robbert.biesbroek@wur.nl

Dr. James Ford McGill University Montreal, Canada www.jamesford.ca james.ford@mcgill.ca

For more information, visit: www.trac3.ca Twitter: @tradaptccc Designed by Stephanie Austin Cover Photo by U.S. Air Force / Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen (Flickr) (New Jersey, United States: Hurricane Sandy 2012) 2015