From fictional citiesto the cities of tomorrow the need to green and redesign an urban world for a sustainable future This research study is exploring how green solutions and policies (natural solutions such as trees, community garden, green walls, … ) can help to design smarter, healthier and more resilient cities and proposing a modelling green scenario for London
for more information contact: francesco.papa@urbandna.eu www.urbandna.eu
Main results show that green solutions help to • Create happier and healthier places • Support economic development • Mitigate climate change • Offer an affordable cost solution compared technology-based solutions • Create more valuable benefits for cities and people than technology-based solutions.
RESEARCH SUMMARY Method: Part 1: Mapping successful case studies on green solutions and policies by conducting primary and secondary research on several cities around the world such as London, Vienna, Singapore, Copenhagen, Guangzhou including an in-depth assessment of what, how and why cities and experts were implementing these natural solutions. Part 2: Qualitative assessment of the main benefits of green policies identified through our mapping exercise Part 3: Modelling exercise on several green policies for London
Conclusions and implications Reconsider the greenness of our world and create a new society that cohabits in harmony with nature. The rise of the population, the threat of Climate Change, the growth of urban places and many other urban challenges call up the urgency to design a new city model. Natural solutions offer an opportunity to design this new urban age and sustain a healthy living for all.
BRINGING BACK THE NATURE solution for communities and societies Health and well-being value
Economic and developmental value
Mitigation and environmental value
The new habits of modern dwellers like watching TV have strongly decreased physical activity and led to health’s issues like obesity. Human activities have increased mortality with air pollution. Recent studies demonstrated that green covers promote active lifestyles, heal from mental health and reduce carbon emissions’ exposure. If every individual was spending $4 each year on planting trees they could save between 11,000 and 36,00 lives each year.
Greening cities improve the local economy. Green landscapes increase property value. The green industry is also a fast-growing segment creating jobs for millions of people. Greening gardens help individuals to save energy and water. In tourism, green parks are attractive and generate millions of benefits. Finally, urban agriculture embraces substantial opportunities to serve abundant food to all surrounding local communities at much higher volume than current industrials.
Urban communities are suffering from the impact of Climate Change. Fortunately, introducing green structures can strengthen cities to become more resilient and less vulnerable. Green covers enrich wildlife, improve air quality, generate energy savings, protect from extreme weathers and decrease temperature.
WHAT IF LONDON WAS A GREEN CITY? Policies and programs A severe driving charge in zone 1-2 that exponentially increases every 6 months. The charge will be monitored by an effective video camera system. Tax exemption will apply for Taxis and buses and will be less expensive for electric cars. A high garbage tax that exponentially increases every 6 months for every household who does not recycle. A strict plastic bag charge that exponentially increases every 6 months in every London stores. Planting trees and plants in streets, undergrounds, parks, places, parking, buildings and pedestrian areas. Financial incentives given to every household or community building to create fruit and vegetable gardens. Installation of smart meters in every London homes, houses and buildings. Mandatory public community vegetable gardens in each district of London. Investments in safe biking lane in the city. Expansion of the public electric car sharing vehicles e.g. Blue city. Investments in electric charging stations. All taxis and buses will be electric. Elevator parking Mandatory Sustainability & Climate Change module in schools, high-schools and university programs.
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Green Life Plan Ideas, Designs and Plans to create a better future for London
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To concretely illustrate the aim of this research, we tried to draw a map of policies based on the primary research to green the city of London with a 6 year plan including simple and realistic programs already applied around the world. Green Life Plan is a comprehensive outlook towards a sustainable future with fewer cars, more green covers and more social interactions. The plan will produce results over a 6-year period from 2018 to 2023 and will be self-financed by the population of London due to the application of strong taxes and regulations.
Key findings
2,500,000
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
£2 million gain net value 272 million trees planted 8000 electric car sharing vehicles 2000 more Electric Charging stations 600 Km of biking lane The usage of plastic bag decreased by 99% The number of drivers decreased by 83% 99% of the Londoners recycled wastes Daily bike journeys increased to 2.6 million 23 000 lives saved due to a better air quality 71% decreased in number of people affected by obesity 50% decreased in number of people affected by mental disorders 92% decreased in road accidents 700 000 jobs created Property value increased by 100% 159 million of ton of Co2 avoided 3 million ton of Co2 absorbed £4 Billion avoided cost of Climate Change Impacts Education in Climate Change raise awareness and actions
3,500,000
250
3,000,000 2,000,000
200 2,500,000 150
1,500,000
2,000,000
100
1,000,000
1,500,000
50
1,000,000
500,000
The findings are based on the analysis of the impact of my 6- year plan modelled on two scenario: Scenario 1 is the forecast of the impact from 2018 to 2023 without the application of my plan and Scenario 2 is the forecast with the application of green policies. This study helped us to understand that the key drivers of Co2 emissions were not necessarily the core drivers of air pollution and this important distinction must be apprehended while tackling Climate Change, and quality of life in the city. Emitted Carbon Emissions
Ton of Ton of Ton of Ton of Total
CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2
from from from from
Plastic bag Car Garbage Households
Ton of CO2
%
Carbon Cost Ton of CO2
540,471 1,385, 460 10,234,284 98,536,603 109,312,743
0 1 9 90 100
£13,511,775 £34,636,500 £255,857,100 £2,463,415,075 £2,732,818,575
CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2
from from from from from
Plastic bag Car Garbage Households Public Transport
2018
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2019
2020
2021
%
Carbon Cost Ton of CO2
1,921,920 4,743 648 29,405,376 123,170,754 2,294,556 159,241,698
1 3 18 77 1 100
£48,048,000 £118,591,200 £735,134,400 £3,079,268,850 £57,363,900 £4,038,406,350
2023 2018
Scenario 1: Deaths by road accidents
London Households Not Recycling Scenario 2 from 2018 to 2023
2019
2020
2021
Cumulated Ton of CO2 Removal
Scenario 2: Deaths by road accidents
London Road Accident Deaths from 2018-2023
2022
2023
Property Average Value £
London Property Value evolution from 2018 to 2023 in Scenario 2 2,500,000
4,000,000 3,500,000
2,000,000
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Deaths Scenario 1
20,500
22,601
24,918
27,472
30,288
33,392
Deaths Scenario 2
156,600
626,400
1,409,400
2,505,600
3,915,000
5,637,600
2,000,000
Ton of Co2 Removal
19,600
17,693
15,228
12,075
8,738
5,714
1,500,000
Life Savings
900
4,908
9,690
15,397
21,550
27,678
1,000,000
3,000,000 2,500,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
500,000 -
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2018
2023
2019
2020
Scenario 1
London Daily Bike Journey under Scenario 2 from 2018 to 2023
Ton of CO2
2022
-
2023
Scenario 1
Avoided Carbon Emissions
Ton of Ton of Ton of Ton of Ton of Total
500,000
-
2021
2022
Scenario 2
Scenario 2
London Obesity Evolution from 2018-2023
London Mental Disorders Evolution from 2018 to 2023 3000000
60,000
2500000
50,000
2000000
40,000
Absorbed Carbon Emissions
30,000
1500000
Ton of Ton of Ton of Ton of Ton of Total
CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2
from from from from from
Street Trees Park Trees Parking, Places Trees Underground Plants Building Plants
Ton of CO2 393,120 204,750 786,240 31,590 1,638,000 3,053,700
% 13 7 26 1 54 100
Net Value of Ton of CO2 Emitted Cost of CO2 Emitted Avoided Climate Change Impact Cost
Carbon Cost Ton of CO2 £9,828,000 £5,118,750 £19,656,000 £789,750 £40,950,000 £76,342,500
20,000
1000000
10,000 500000 2018
0 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
107,643,118 £2,691,077,950 £4,038,406,350
London Carbon Emissions under scenario 2 from 2018 to 2023
2023
2019
2020
2021
Air Pollution Effects From 2018 to 2023
Francesco Papa October 2018
2023
2023 Scenario 1: Accidents in Road Collisions
London Car Type Evolution under Scenario 2 from 2018 to 2023
2022
Scenario 1: Causalities
London Accidents evolution from 2018 to 2023