Judgment
Question # 1 How will you simplify a judgment problem?
Break down a judgment problem into a series of smaller tasks.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 page 313.
Evaluate each task independently of the others.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 page 313.
Question # 2 To what extent do you put focus on present and short term?
Research shows that long term predictions about specific events are impossible. The world is a messy place, where minor
events can have large consequences.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 page 123.
Question # 3 To what extent do you use checklists to help make judgments?
Checklists help reduce noise and improve decisions.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604
Question # 4
To what extent do you use AI to help you make judgments
Algorithms can outperform human beings on whatever combination of criteria we select.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 page 286.
Question # 5 To what extent do you get independent opinions from people with different views?
Diversity of skills in a group of professionals is an asset because different professionals will cover different aspects of the problem and complement one another.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 178.
Register views of people in a group independently. Why? Because when people learn about the estimates of other people, groups do worse.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 90.
Mini-delphi method Round 1: each participant in a meeting is asked to produce a silent estimate about whether something will happen and then to explain and justify it. Round 2: Each participant is asked to make a new estimate in response to the estimates and explanations of others.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 223.
Question # 6 To what extent do you calculate the average of judgments?
Make the judgment again, after some time has passed. Then compare the two judgments.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 78.
Average all estimates you have.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Pages 78 and 222.
Question # 7 To what extent do you use nudges to help people make better judgments?
Automatic enrollment has proved to be effective in increasing participation rates. Example: Automatic enrollment in free school meal plans.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 204.
In supermarkets, put healthy foods in prominent places.
https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 204.