MARKET OUTLOOK CARINA Carina is an established, well connected community, located just eight kilometres to Brisbane CBD and in close proximity to sprawling parklands and key health, education and retail infrastructure.
02 Connectivity & Accessibility 04 Infrastructure & Employment 05 Demographics & Education 06 Residential Market 07 Rental Market Prepared exclusively for
Frasers Property
August 2019
Top Left: Meadowlands Road Dog Park; Top Right & Middle: Minnippi Parklands; Bottom Left: Creek Road Bus Stop; Bottom Right: Westfield Carindale. Image Credit: Louise Hawson Photography
CONNECTIVITY & ACCESSIBILITY
The Carina Catchment (Carina, Carina Heights, Camp Hill, Cannon Hill and Carindale) is a well-established middle ring Brisbane area located just eight kilometres to the Brisbane CBD - Queensland's largest employment hub and three kilometres to the Gateway Motorway (M1). The Gateway Motorway connects Carina to several major employment nodes including, Port of Brisbane, Brisbane Airport and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.
PARKS & COMMUNITY
01 Seven Hills
Bushland Reserve
02 Carina Leagues Club /
Clem Jones Centre / Sporting Grounds
03 Worship Centre
Christian Church
04 BSHS Sporting Grounds 05 Meadowlands Picnic Ground 06 Carindale Recreation Reserve
Brisbane CBD (8km)
HEALTH 07 Belmont Private Hospital 08 Greenslopes Private Hospital 09 Mater Hospital Brisbane 10 Carina Medical & Specialist Centre RETAIL 11 Cannon Hill Kmart Plaza 12 Bunnings Cannon Hill 13 Westfield Carindale 14 Coorparoo Square
09 14
08 18 24
EDUCATION 15 Carina State School
19
26
16
23
16 San Sisto College 17 Mayfield State School
07
18 Griffith University Mount Gravatt Campus 19 QUT – Gardens Point Campus
13
20 St Oliver Plunkett Primary School
Ro a
d
21 Seeds Early Learning
an d
22 C&K Carindale Community Kindergarten
Cl e
ve l
23 Cavendish Road State High School
Ol d
24 Whites Hill State College 25 Citipointe Christian College 26 Little Wishes Early Learning Centre INFRASTRUCTURE 27 Brisbane Transport Bus Depot 28 Bulimba Creek Bikeway
RECENT INVESTMENT INTO TRANSPORT, SCHOOLS AND RETAIL HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ACCESSIBILITY AND LIFESTYLE FOR CARINA RESIDENTS 2
Market Outlook Carina
Creek Road
25 Gold Coast (60min drive)
06
22
15
St
an
le
y
The Carina catchment is home to more than 150 hectares of reserved green space, including the Minnippi Parklands, Carindale Recreation Reserve and Bulimba Creek providing bikeway access links to surrounding suburbs and Brisbane CBD.
Looking forward, there is over $12 billion of investment in major infrastructure projects across Brisbane. These projects include the Cross River Rail, Queens Wharf, Brisbane Live and Brisbane Airport redevelopment, all having a flow-on benefit for Carina residents, given it's proximity to the Brisbane CBD.
Sunshine Coast (75min drive) Brisbane Airport (15min drive)
01
yR
20
02
11
12
17 oa
Gateway Bridge/ Motorway
d
10 27
04 Bulimba Creek
Minnippi Parklands
03 21
28
Gateway Motorway
05
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property
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INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT INFRASTRUCTURE GREENDALE SHOPPING CENTRE $18 Million (Planned)
Proposed construction of shopping centre with 3,359sqm supermarket, specialty shops, amenities and parking for 306 vehicles. BELMONT PRIVATE HOSPITAL $12 Million (Planned)
Construction of a six-storey building to provide a new 48-bed ward. CANNON HILL ANGLICAN COLLEGE $8 Million (Planned)
Construction of two new buildings, a single-storey amenities block and two-storey multi-purpose building. Work is anticipated to be completed late 2020. CANNON HILL KMART PLAZA $5 Million (Planned)
Renovation and refurbishment to existing centre. Work is expected to commence late-2019. SAN SISTO COLLEGE DOMINIC CENTRE REDEVELOPMENT $5 Million (Recently Completed)
Construction of new two-storey wing to include dry laboratory, science laboratory, classroom and amenities on ground floor. The project also includes co-laboratory, IT support, gymnasium and office/administration area on upper level. ST OLIVER PLUNKETT PRIMARY SCHOOL $3 Million (Recently Completed)
Construction of a new two-storey building with ground floor (undercroft) covered play space, upper floor - three multi-purpose rooms and one room for outside school hours care. ALLSPORTS PHYSIOTHERAPY & SPORTS MEDICINE $2 Million (Planned)
Proposed construction of a two-storey health care services building to comprise physiotherapy clinic, geriatric care, consulting rooms, paediatrics, pilates, administration and support services area.
EMPLOYMENT The Carina Catchment is projected to see employment increase by 10.2 per cent over 25 years to 2041, with Health Care and Social Assistance forecast to be the largest employment sector. Significantly, Carina is located just eight kilometres south of Brisbane CBD which is the largest employment hub across Queensland, with more than 148,000 jobs at 2016 and is forecast to increase to around 234,300 jobs by 2041. Brisbane CBD is easily accessible to residents of Carina via TransLink bus services and is only around 11 kilometres from Carina.
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CLEM JONES CENTRE $2 Million (Planned)
Proposed construction of a two-storey health care services building to comprise physiotherapy clinic, geriatric care, consulting rooms, paediatrics, pilates, administration and support services area. WESTFIELD CARINDALE
Westfield Carindale is home to over 450 specialty stores, along with David Jones, Myer, Harris Scarfe, Big W, Target, Coles, Woolworths and Aldi. A refurbishment will be undertaken to include the addition of Kmart with completion due mid 2020. CANNON HILL BUS INTERCHANGE
Regular bus services run from the Cannon Hill Bus Interchange to the city and other areas. BULIMBA CREEK BIKEWAY
The Bulimba Creek Bikeway travels 3.6 kilometres along Bulimba Creek, past the back of the Westfield Carindale Shopping Centre, through the Carindale Recreational Reserve to Meadowbank Street Park in Carindale.
MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE BRISBANE CITY CROSS RIVER RAIL $5.4 Billion QUEENS WHARF $3.6 Billion BRISBANE LIVE $2 Billion BRISBANE AIRPORT REDEVELOPMENT $1.3 Billion HOWARD SMITH WHARVES $100+ Million KINGSFORD SMITH DRIVE UPGRADE $650 Million BRISBANE INTERNATIONAL CRUISE TERMINAL $158 Million
TOP 5 EMPLOYMENT SECTORS Carina Catchment* Number of jobs in 2016
Number of jobs in 2041
Health Care & Social Assistance
2,234
2,907
Retail Trade
3,942
2,271
Accommodation & Food Services
1,778
2,144
Education & Training
1,229
1,740
734
1,582
6,823
7,810
16,740
18,454
148,399
234,345
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Other Sectors
Prepared by Urbis; Source: Urbis. *Catchment includes the suburbs of Carina, Carina Heights, Carindale, Cannon Hill, Camp Hill.
TOTAL CATCHMENT
Market Outlook Carina
BRISBANE CBD
DEMOGRAPHICS & EDUCATION The Carina Catchment is dominated by family households living in separate dwellings, employed mainly in the White-Collar sector and earning a higher income than the wider Brisbane population.
WHO LIVES IN CARINA? Carina Catchment*
DEMAND IN THIS POPULAR FAMILYORIENTED INNER-CITY AREA WILL MOST LIKELY OUTSTRIP SUPPLY. Between 2016 and 2041 the Carina Catchment is projected to increase by approximately 270 residents each year. At 2016, the highest proportion of residents were aged from 20 to 35 years. Looking forward to 2041, this moves to 35 to 50-year old residents who will dominate the resident population. This older demographic are more likely to accept medium density living as they move towards down-sizing and eventually, retirement.
Private Schools Public Schools Child Care Centres
$114,151
$96,367
Family households
73.7%
73.1%
White collar workers
80.0%
70.9%
Separate dwelling
75.9%
77.0%
Attached dwelling
23.6%
22.8%
Owned or purchasing
71.9%
65.9%
Renting
29.9%
35.9%
Born overseas
26.4%
27.8%
6
5,066
6
3,354
Schools
Schools
27
2016
2041
Distance to Griffith University
Students
Students
12 Km
11 Km
*Catchment includes the suburbs of Carina, Carina Heights, Carindale, Cannon Hill, Camp Hill.
85+
80-84
70-74
75-79
65-69
55-59
60-64
Age bracket
Prepared by Urbis; Source: Queensland Government Population Projections 2018 edition.
Centres
Distance to QUT
50-54
45-49
35-39
40-44
25-29
30-34
15-19
20-24
10-14
05-09
9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 00-04
Period (annual) Prepared by Urbis; Source: Queensland Government Population Projections 2018 edition.
EDUCATION
Average household income
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS Census 2016.
Proportion of total population
59,097
53,449
45,093
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
36.1
AGE DISTRIBUTION Carina Catchment*
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041
Resident projected population
POPULATION GROWTH Carina Catchment*
36.9
Average age
Historic population growth in the Carina Catchment has been trending upward over the 20 years to 2016, recording a rate of 1.7 per cent per annum. The latest population projections are indicating the growth rate will slow further. This is most likely due to the lack of suitable development sites available for medium density projects, hence population growth is restricted.
Brisbane LGA
Image Credit: Louise Hawson Photography
RESIDENTIAL MARKET HOUSING
LAND
Carina has recorded strong long-term house price growth, recording 8.6 per cent growth per annum over 20 years. This is stronger growth than recorded across the Carina Catchment and the wider Brisbane LGA area.
Vacant land in the suburb of Carina is scarce. Over the last three years, only 14 vacant blocks of land have transacted.
The median house price in Carina recorded a peak level during the six months ending December 2018 with a price of $677,000. Preliminary figures for 2019 are recording a further increase to $710,000. Over the last five years the number of settled house transactions in Carina reached a peak of 84 during the first half of 2014, with an average of 68 sales each six-month period. This low level of transactions indicates a sought-after area with limited houses being placed on the market.
Of these 14 settled sales, the highest price paid for a vacant block of land in Carina was $615,000. The last half of 2018 recorded a median land price of $470,000 in Carina which compares to $410,000 across the wider Brisbane LGA. This highlights the premium place on vacant land in a suburb with strong infrastructure and proximity to the city. MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH 20 year growth UNIT/TOWNHOUSE
HOUSE Brisbane LGA median house price
UNITS & TOWNHOUSES In a similar trend to the housing market, Carina has recorded strong long-term unit and townhouse price growth, recording 6.3 per cent growth per annum over 20 years. The chart on the right highlights the price bracket creep occurring across the suburb of Carina. Townhouses and units priced from $450-$549,999 have recorded a slowing in sales rates over the last five years while those priced from $550-$649,999 have increased. Sales priced at $750,000 and over began to emerge during 2018, highlighting the premium residents and investors are willing pay in Carina for new modern welldesigned product. The Brisbane City Council is proposing to remove the ability for further townhouse developments in low density residential zoned areas. If this proposal is approved, then areas such as Carina will see townhouse development limited to what is already approved, limiting the supply pipeline in the Catchment. This will lead to no new supply of townhouse product. With only 23.6 per cent of the Carina Catchment made up of units and townhouses, this product type will become sought after if the council proposal is approved.
6
Market Outlook Carina
Brisbane LGA median unit price
5.2%
Carina Catchment median house price
8.5%
Carina Catchment median unit price
5.3%
Carina median house price
8.6%
Carina median unit price
6.3%
Data six-months ending December 1998 and 2018. Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder.
UNIT / TOWNHOUSE SALES BY PRICE BRACKETS Carina Catchment* $250 - $349,999 $550 - $649,999
Number of settled transactions
PROJECTED CHANGES TO COUNCIL'S STRATEGIC PLANNING WOULD LIMIT TOWNHOUSE SUPPLY, POTENTIALLY CREATING DEMAND FOR CURRENT STOCK AND AN INCREASE TO PRICES
7.6%
$350 - $449,999 $650 - $749,999
$450 - $549,999 $750,000 and over
100 80 60 40 20 0
2014
2015
2016
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder.
2017
2018
RENTAL MARKET Strong infrastructure spending, employment growth and a lack of new dwelling commencements in Carina and the wider Catchment area will lead to a tightening rental market. Over ten years, between the 2006 and 2016 Census periods, residents living in separate houses in the Carina Catchment declined by 6.7 per cent. At the same time, the proportion of residents living in semi-detached, flats, units and apartments increased 7.0 per cent. This change in dwelling structure is highlighting the emerging preference for higher density living and a shift away from the traditional separate home. Current advertised weekly rents for new and near-new townhouses and units are tracking above the median weekly rents provided by the Residential Tenancies Authority (RTA), and are attracting a premium, as the table on the right highlights. Three-bedroom townhouses had the widest range of advertised rents with a range from $460 up to $800 per week. No new and near-new two-bedroom townhouses were being advertised for rent in the Catchment, indicating a lack of supply of this product type with the RTA recording only 26 new bond lodgements during the March 2019 quarter. The residential vacancy rate across Australian capital cities is varied. When compared to the Eastern seaboard capitals, Brisbane is performing well with an overall residential vacancy rate of 2.3 per cent. Melbourne is sitting at a vacancy rate of 2.1 per cent – both Brisbane and Melbourne are well below Sydney, which has a vacancy rate of 3.0 per cent. Median Weekly Rent*
OTM Rents**
2-bed townhouses
$390
None Available
3-bed townhouses
$468
$460 - $800
N/A
$565 - $730
4-bed townhouse
Prepared by Urbis; Source: realestate.com, APM PriceFinder. *Source: RTA Q1 2019 based on postcode 4152 Carina, Camp Hill, Carindale **On-The-Market Rents, new and near-new product.
THE CARINA CATCHMENT IS MOVING TOWARDS HIGHER DENSITY LIVING
Image Credit: Louise Hawson Photography Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property
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P0010063/B
This publication is prepared on the instruction of Frasers Property and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effort to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by known, or unknown, risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Frasers Property and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers.
