RYDE MARKET OUTLOOK
ARTISTS IMPRESSION, INDICATIVE ONLY —
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OUTLOOK
AUGUST 2015
RYDE
A CONTEXT ON BUSINESS, CULTURE, LIFESTYLE AND RESIDENTIAL
THE WESTCONNEX M4 EAST EXTENSION
A VIBRANT SHOPPING, DINING AND SOCIAL DESTINATION
LOCATION
B
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
C
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
Local amenity including considerable recreational areas. / PG02 2YDEÒISÒWELLÒPOSITIONEDÒTOÒBENEµTÒFROMÒ ALREADYÒESTABLISHEDÒINFRASTRUCTURE Ò Ò0' ÒÒ The Ryde LGA has emerging employment nodes with over 25,000 new jobs ANTICIPATEDÒBYÒ Ò Ò0'
D POPULATION GROWTH
Ryde is located approximately 11km north west of the Sydney CBD
IMPROVED CONNECTIVITY TO THE CITY AND AIRPORT
A
The Ryde LGA is projected to grow by Ã’OVERÃ’THEÃ’NEXTÃ’ Ã’YEARS Ã’ Ã’0'
E
SALES PRICE GROWTH
F
RENTAL GROWTH
1
POP
-EDIANÃ’APARTMENTÃ’PRICEÃ’GROWTHÃ’OFÃ’ Ã’ in the last 12 months. / pg06 Median two bedroom apartment rents HAVEÃ’RECORDEDÃ’AVERAGEÃ’ANNUALÃ’GROWTHÃ’OFÃ’ Ã’INÃ’THEÃ’LASTÃ’DECADE Ã’ Ã’0'
A SPORTING, CULTURAL AND LEISURE PRECINCT – COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENSIVE PARKLANDS
SYDNEY OLYMPIC PARK
2
INF
3
EMP
The Ryde LGA accommodates all three of the Urbis economics and research fundamentals that make a sustainable suburb – Population, Infrastructure and Employment. TOP RYDE CITY SHOPPING CENTRE
ACCESSIBILITY & WALKABILITY
NORTH SYDNEY CBD
Rhodes Waterside Shopping Centre
2
Gladesville Shopping Village
3
Birkenhead Point Outlet Centre
4
Sydney Olympic Park
5
Top Ryde
6
Macquarie Centre
7
Putney Public School
8
St Charles Catholic Primary School
9
Holy Cross College Ryde
10
Ryde Secondary College
11
St Joseph’s College
12
Ryde Aquatic Leisure Centre
13
Gladesville Hospital
14
Cabarita Swimming Centre
15
Tyagarah Park
16
Bremner Park
17
Morrison Bay park
18
Boronia Park Ovals
19
Peel Park
20
Bill Mitchell Park
21
Cabarita Park
20
9
MACQUARIE PARK (15 MIN)
RIA TO VIC
Parks & Recreation
10
Bus stop Airport 6
12 MINS
5
4 MINS
Ryde is located approximately 11km north west of the Sydney CBD and forms part of the Ryde Local Government Area (LGA).
2
URBIS RYDE MARKET OUTLOOK © URBIS.COM.AU
12 1 2
8 AD
1
RO
Health
Education
Retail & Entertainment
Key Legend
SYDNEY CBD
3
11
2
13 21
14
18 19
17
16 15 7
10 MINS 1 PARRAMATTA (15 MIN)
The region boasts new residential development that is within close proximity to recreational areas and water side amenities (Parramatta River to the south), as well as shopping precincts, hospitals, schools and employment. 4HEÒREGIONÒALSOÒPROVIDESÒSIGNIµCANTÒEMPLOYMENTÒNODESÒ including the North Ryde and Macquarie Park Commercial
15 MINS 4
and Business Precinct, Gladesville Industrial Precinct, Top Ryde, Meadowbank and Sydney Olympic Park. Lane Cove Road provides the area with accessibility to the M2 and M4 motorways, and in turn these motorways connect residents to other areas throughout Sydney.
URBIS RYDE MARKET OUTLOOK © URBIS.COM.AU
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INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT
Ryde LGA is expected to provide upward of 25,000 new jobs by 2031
FORECAST EMPLOYMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
The Ryde LGA boasts several major employment precincts that are projected TOÒRECORDÒSIGNIµCANTÒGROWTHÒOVERÒTHEÒNEXTÒ ÒYEARS Ò4HEÒCOMBINATIONÒOFÒTHESEÒ employment nodes equates to approximately 25,595 new jobs by 2031. Employment within the LGA is projected to rise by around 30% by 2031. In addition to the 10,150 new jobs anticipated within the Macquarie Park Precinct by 2031, improved transport links will make the area more accessible TOÒAÒNUMBERÒOFÒKEYÒEMPLOYMENTÒNODESÒANDÒTHEÒLOCALÒAREAÒMOREÒATTRACTIVEÒTOÒ PROFESSIONALÒWORKERS
RYDE LGA
OTHER MAJOR CENTRES
North Ryde Commercial and Business Precinct
Sydney Olympic Park
2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
8,660 11,362 2,702
Macquarie Park Commercial and Business Precinct 2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
37,125 47,275 10,150
Gladesville Industrial Precinct 2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
2,041 2,619 578
Top Ryde 2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
2,603 3,448 845
Meadowbank 2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
1,968 2,561 593
Elsewhere in the LGA 2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
31,981 42,708 10,727
RYDE LGA TOTAL 2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
4
2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
NORTH WEST RAIL LINK ($8.3 BILLION) Proposed Completion 2019 The North West Rail Link is currently Australia’s LARGESTÒPUBLICÒTRANSPORTÒINFRASTRUCTUREÒPROJECTÒANDÒ AÒPRIORITYÒRAILÒPROJECTÒFORÒTHEÒ.37Ò'OVERNMENT Ò 7HENÒCOMPLETED ÒTHEÒRAILÒLINKÒWILLÒBEÒTHEÒµRSTÒ FULLY AUTOMATEDÒRAPIDÒTRANSITÒRAILÒSYSTEMÒINÒ Australia, delivering eight new railway stations and 4,000 commuter car parking spaces to Sydney’s growing North West and is estimated to cost $8.3 billion.
14,676 22,236 7,560
WESTCONNEX M4 EAST EXTENSION (OVER $10 BILLION) Proposed Completion 2019
Parramatta CBD 2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
46,589 65,522 18,933
#ONSTRUCTIONÃ’OFÃ’AÃ’NEWÃ’MOTORWAYÃ’TUNNELÃ’TOÃ’ connect existing M4 to City and Airport.
Port Botany 2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
WESTCONNEX M5 EAST DUPLICATION
12,684 16,342 3,658
(OVER $10 BILLION) Proposed Completion 2019
Sydney CBD 2011 CURRENT 2031 FORECAST NEW JOBS
313,945 404,346 90,401
Source: NSW Bureau of Transport Statistics (2014)
$UPLICATIONÃ’OFÃ’EXISTINGÃ’MOTORWAYÃ’TUNNELÃ’TOÃ’ increase capacity to the City and Airport.
PARRAMATTA LIGHT RAIL PROPOSAL To accommodate the growing Parramatta CBD Potentially will connect Westmead health PRECINCT Ã’0ARRAMATTAÃ’#"$ Ã’5NIVERSITYÃ’OFÃ’7ESTERNÃ’ Sydney at Rydalmere, Eastwood town centre and Macquarie Park.
PARRAMATTA URBANGROWTH PROJECT Continued effect from WestConnex The project aims to create a mixed use precinct INÒ0ARRAMATTAÒ.ORTH ÒASÒWELLÒASÒTHEÒREFURBISHMENTÒ OFÒ#UMBERLANDÒ(OSPITAL Ò0ARRAMATTAÒ3TADIUM Ò Parramatta Park and the Old King’s School site.
TOP RYDE CITY
84,378 109,973 25,595
URBIS RYDE MARKET OUTLOOK © URBIS.COM.AU
Redevelopment Completed in 2010.
SYDNEY OLYMPIC PARK Existing Infrastructure that will continue to grow as a major event hub and business destination.
DEMOGRAPHICS
4HEÒ2YDEÒ,'!ÒHASÒAÒSIGNI¾CANTÒWHITEÒCOLLARÒLABOURÒFORCE Ò COMPRISINGÒ ÒOFÒEMPLOYEDÒRESIDENTS ÒWHICHÒISÒABOVEÒTHEÒ 3YDNEYÒAVERAGEÒ Ò4HISÒINCLUDESÒAÒHIGHÒPROPORTIONÒOFÒ MANAGERSÒANDÒPROFESSIONALS ÒACCOUNTINGÒFORÒAPPROXIMATELYÒ ÒOFÒWORKERS 4HEÒWELL EDUCATEDÒANDÒPROFESSIONALÒWORKFORCEÒISÒREšECTEDÒ BYÒAÒHIGHÒAVERAGEÒHOUSEHOLDÒINCOMEÒINÒTHEÒ2YDEÒ,'!ÒOFÒ Ò ÒABOVEÒTHEÒ3YDNEYÒAVERAGE
RYDE LGA POPULATION
200,000
3.5%
RYDE LGA ANNUAL GROWTH RATE SYDNEY ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
140,550
2.5%
128,650 120,000
117,400
108,700
2.0% 1.5%
80,000 1.0% 40,000
0.5% 0.0%
0 2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Prepared by Urbis; Source NSW Planning and Environment (2014)
INDUSTRY RYDE LGA V. SYDNEY 7%
Labourers Machinery operators & Drivers
3%
SYDNEY RYDE LGA
6% 9% 9%
Sales Workers Clerical & Administrative Workers
The signiďŹ cant population growth and afuent white collar residents within the Ryde LGA represents a key demand driver for apartments in the area.
3.0%
153,000
160,000
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH (%)
0OPULATIONĂ’FORECASTSĂ’DEVELOPEDĂ’BYĂ’5RBISĂ’BASEDĂ’ONĂ’.37Ă’ $EPARTMENTĂ’OFĂ’0LANNINGĂ’ANDĂ’%NVIRONMENTĂ’DATAĂ’PROJECTĂ’THEĂ’ POPULATIONĂ’OFĂ’2YDEĂ’,'!Ă’WILLĂ’GROWĂ’BYĂ’AROUNDĂ’ Ă’NEWĂ’ residents between 2011 and 2031, equating to growth INĂ’NEWĂ’RESIDENTSĂ’OFĂ’ Ă’PERĂ’ANNUM Ă’(OWEVER Ă’WHILEĂ’THEĂ’ PROJECTEDĂ’RATEĂ’OFĂ’POPULATIONĂ’GROWTHĂ’ISĂ’DECREASING Ă’ITĂ’ISĂ’ ABOVEĂ’THEĂ’PROJECTEDĂ’GROWTHĂ’RATEĂ’FORĂ’3YDNEY Ă’4HISĂ’PROJECTEDĂ’ POPULATIONĂ’GROWTHĂ’COMBINEDĂ’WITHĂ’LARGEĂ’SCALEĂ’INFRASTRUCTUREĂ’ SPENDINGĂ’BODEĂ’WELLĂ’FORĂ’CONTINUEDĂ’POPULATIONĂ’GROWTHĂ’INĂ’THEĂ’ Ryde LGA.
PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH RYDE LGA V SYDNEY
POPULATION (NO.)
&ORĂ’THEĂ’PURPOSEĂ’OFĂ’THISĂ’PROÂľLE Ă’THEĂ’2YDEĂ’#ATCHMENTĂ’HASĂ’ BEENĂ’DEÂľNEDĂ’ASĂ’THEĂ’,OCALĂ’'OVERNMENTĂ’!REAĂ’ ,'! Ă’ OFĂ’2YDE Ă’
16% 17% 9% 8%
Community & Personal Service Workers Technicians & trades workers
12% 11% 26%
Professionals
32%
14% 14%
Managers 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
SHARE OF POPULATION (%)
Prepared by Urbis; Source ABS 2011 Census Data
WHO LIVES IN THE RYDE LGA?
!VERAGEĂ’!GEĂ’OFĂ’ Residents Employed as 0ROFESSIONALS Employed in White Collar Jobs Bachelor Degree or Higher
RYDE LGA
SYDNEY
38 years 32% 80% 33%
37 years 26% 74% 24%
Occupied Dwelling Owned Outright Average Household Income Household Income Above $130,000
33% 24% $96,032 $94,428 28% 26%
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS Census 2011
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RESIDENTIAL MARKET
The Ryde LGA has historically recorded strong price growth for apartments
RYDE LGA HOUSE MARKET
NUMBER OF HOUSE SALES
2YDEÃ’,'!Ã’RECORDEDÃ’ Ã’HOUSEÃ’SALESÃ’INÃ’THEÃ’*UNEÃ’ Ã’HALFÃ’ YEARÃ’PERIOD Ã’Ã’!CTIVITYÃ’PEAKEDÃ’INÃ’ Ã’BEFOREÃ’DECLININGÃ’OVERÃ’ the next three years and then stabilising at around 900 transactions per year.
$1,600,000
1,400
$1,400,000
1,200
$1,200,000
1,000
$1,000,000
800
$800,000
600
$600,000
400
$400,000
200
$200,000
0
RYDE LGA APARTMENT MARKET
NUMBER OF APARTMENT SALES NUMBER OF SALES MEDIAN APARTMENT SALE PRICE
2,000
$700,000
1,800
$600,000
1,600 1,400
$500,000
1,200
$400,000
1,000 800
$300,000
600
$200,000
400
$100,000
200 0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Data compiled by Cordell Connect indicates that there are an estimated 2,949 residential apartments proposed to be COMPLETEDÒINÒTHEÒ2YDEÒ,'!ÒOVERÒTHEÒNEXTÒµVEÒYEARS Ò*USTÒ over 1,000 apartments are anticipated to be completed in ÒALONEÒINDICATINGÒTHATÒTHEÒMAJORITYÒOFÒPROPOSEDÒSUPPLYÒ is in the construction stage.
0REPAREDÒBYÒ5RBIS Ò3OURCEÒ20Ò$ATAÒ Ò ÒµGURESÒRE¹ECTÒUPÒTOÒ*UNEÒ
SALES (NO.)
Apartment product within the Ryde LGA has historically SHOWNÒCONSISTENTÒANDÒCONµDENTÒPRICEÒGROWTHÒRECORDINGÒAÒ TENÒYEARÒMEDIANÒPRICEÒINCREASEÒOFÒ ÒPERÒCENTÒPERÒANNUM Ò 3HORTÒTERMÒGROWTHÒISÒALSOÒSTRONGÒWITHÒAÒµGUREÒOFÒ ÒPERÒ cent recorded in the twelve months to December 2014.
5.2%
5.0%
KNOWN FUTURE APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT IN RYDE LGA
2,949 TOTAL FUTURE APARTMENT
1,125 611
252
2016
2017
Prepared by Urbis; Source RP Data
1 YEAR GROWTH
Prepared by Urbis; Source RP Data
6
URBIS RYDE MARKET OUTLOOK © URBIS.COM.AU
5 YEAR GROWTH
756
205
5.4% 2015
APARTMENT
0
0REPAREDÒBYÒ5RBIS Ò3OURCEÒ20Ò$ATAÒ Ò ÒµGURESÒRE¹ECTÒUPÒTOÒ*UNEÒ
The apartment market has recorded strong average price growth over the last decade, which has picked up SIGNIµCANTLYÒSINCEÒTHEÒENDÒOFÒTHEÒGLOBALÒµNANCIALÒCRISIS APARTMENT SALES PRICE GROWTH 2014
$0
10 YEAR GROWTH
2018
2019
MEDIAN SALES PRICE ($)
$URINGÃ’THEÃ’*UNEÃ’ Ã’HALFÃ’YEARÃ’PERIOD Ã’THEÃ’2YDEÃ’,'!Ã’ RECORDEDÃ’AÃ’MEDIANÃ’APARTMENTÃ’PRICEÃ’OFÃ’ Ã’ BASEDÃ’ on 349 settled transactions). Activity has generally remained relatively stable over the past 10 years with the LGA registering on average 1,400 transactions per year, indicating that new apartment stock has been readily absorbed.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
SALES (NO.)
1,600
MEDIAN SALES PRICE ($)
(OUSESÒRECORDEDÒAÒMEDIANÒSALESÒPRICEÒOFÒ ÒINÒ THEÒµRSTÒHALFÒOFÒ ÒRE¹ECTINGÒAVERAGEÒANNUALÒGROWTHÒOFÒ ÒPERÒANNUMÒOVERÒTHEÒLASTÒµVEÒYEARS Ò4HISÒFOLLOWEDÒAÒ µVEÒYEARÒPERIODÒOFÒSTABLEÒPRICESÒBETWEENÒ ÒANDÒ
NUMBER OF SALES MEDIAN HOUSE, SALE PRICE
RENTAL ANALYSIS
The Ryde LGA provides strong locational amenity as a more affordable price than comparable middle ring locations MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT GROWTH FOR 2 BEDROOM UNITS $500
RYDE LGA SYDNEY MIDDLE RING
MEDIAN PRICE ($)
$400
$300
Two bedroom apartments represent the major component OFÒRENTALÒAPARTMENTSÒINÒTHEÒ2YDEÒ,'! ÒRE¹ECTINGÒTHEÒ larger unit sizes in the area compared to most other areas THROUGHOUTÒ3YDNEY Ò4HEÒLARGERÒUNITÒSIZESÒRE¹ECTÒAÒPOINTÒOFÒ DIFFERENCEÒTOÒTHEÒWIDERÒAPARTMENTÒMARKETÒINÒ3YDNEYÒTHATÒISÒ attractive to a wider demographic. !CCORDINGÒTOÒTHEÒ.37Ò$EPARTMENTÒOFÒ(OUSING ÒTWOÒ bedroom apartments in the Ryde LGA registered an increase INÒMEDIANÒWEEKLYÒRENTÒOFÒ ÒOVERÒTHEÒ ÒMONTHSÒTOÒ March 2015.
$200
$100
$0 JUN-05 JUN-06 JUN-07 JUN-08 JUN-09 JUN-10 JUN-11 JUN-12 JUN-13 JUN-14
Prepared by Urbis; Source NSW Department of Housing Rent Data (2015)
Ryde LGA has recorded modest rent growth over the last decade
RENTING HOUSEHOLDS RYDE LGA
12,930
14,801
13,468
HOUSES
2001
HOUSES
HOUSES
2006
2011
Prepared by Urbis; Source ABS Census
MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS FOR 2 BEDROOM UNITS RYDE LGA V BENCHMARKS
2
RYDE LGA
)NÃ’LINEÃ’WITHÃ’LOWERÃ’RENTS Ã’THEÃ’2YDEÃ’,'!Ã’HASÃ’ALSOÃ’OFFEREDÃ’ modest rental returns. RP Data Scorecards show that the catchment apartment market had an indicative gross rental YIELDÃ’OFÃ’ Ã’PERÃ’CENT Ã’FORÃ’THEÃ’ Ã’MONTHSÃ’TOÃ’-AYÃ’ Ã’ WHICHÃ’WASÃ’SLIGHTLYÃ’BELOWÃ’THEÃ’3YDNEYÃ’APARTMENTÃ’AVERAGEÃ’OFÃ’ Ã’PERÃ’CENT Ã’4HISÃ’ISÃ’REPRESENTATIVEÃ’OFÃ’AÃ’LOCATIONÃ’WITHÃ’STRONGÃ’ demand drivers.
RENTAL APARTMENT BY SIZE
$420
MARCH Q 2014
The Ryde LGA has primarily been an owner occupier MARKET Ã’(OWEVER Ã’THEÃ’NUMBERÃ’OFÃ’HOUSEHOLDSÃ’RENTINGÃ’INÃ’ THEÃ’,'!Ã’HASÃ’INCREASEDÃ’BYÃ’ Ã’OVERÃ’THEÃ’LASTÃ’DECADE
7.1% ANNUAL GROWTH
$455
MARCH Q 2015
1
SYDNEY MIDDLE RING
$455
MARCH Q 2014
5.1% ANNUAL GROWTH
$480
MARCH Q 2015
2
SYDNEY INNER RING
$630
MARCH Q 2014
$650
MARCH Q 2015
3.2%
3
RYDE LGA
SYDNEY
27% 65% 8%
25% 63% 12%
ANNUAL GROWTH
Prepared by Urbis; Source ABS 2011 Census Data
SYDNEY OUTER RING
MARCH Q 2014 MARCH Q 2015
$375 $390
4.0% ANNUAL GROWTH
Prepared by Urbis; Source NSW Department of Housing Rent Data (2015)
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7
Sydney Level 23, Darling Park Tower 2 201 Sussex Street Sydney NSW 2000 02 8233 9900 This publication is prepared on the instruction of Frasers Property Australia by Urbis for a fee. This publication is not an opinion or representation by or on behalf of Frasers Property Australia and Australand accepts no responsibility for the content of the publication and any reliance upon it. This report does not represent financial or investment advice as the publication involves projections and assumptions that can be affected by a number of unforseen variables, any investment decision must allow for the risk that, the accuracy of the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. It must also be remembered that pastperformance is not a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Neither Urbis nor Frasers Property Australia accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of this publication for your personal circumstances and you should take independent advice before making any decision to invest. The information is current as at the date of publication August 2015 but subject to change without notice and Urbis and Frasers Property Australia are under no obligation to contact recipients of this report to update the information or correct any assumptions or inaccuracies which may prove to be incorrect at a later date so any matter of particular interest should be checked prior to any decision to invest. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior permission. Enquiries should be addressed to the publisher, Urbis.
1300 080 080 PUTNEYHILL.COM.AU VISIT THE SALES CENTRE 78 LARDELLI DRIVE, RYDE ENTER VIA 59 CHARLES STREET OPEN DAILY 10AM - 5PM
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