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Teachers Development Program

Global trends an developments in the Print Media Industry Detlev Dierkes, Print Media Academy

Print Media Academy

Global population

332,331

Asia / Pacific

385,803 6%

Africa / Middle East

8% 552,850

Latin America Eastern Europe

9% 53%

Western Europe North America

19% 1,215,473

3,416,594 Global population: 6,415,443

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

512,392

Print Media Academy

Global print production €12.74 billion

€3.75 billion 1% 3.4%

€13.11 billion

Western Europe €128.86 billion

3.5%

North America Asia / Pacific

€100.02 billion 34.4% 26.7%

Latin America Eastern Europe Africa / Middle East

€115.31 billion

Global print production: €373.79 billion

31%

Print Media Academy

Development of print production

37% 42%

Asia/ Pacific

3.4%

Central Europe

23% 22%

2.9%

2000

North America

33% 29% 2% 2% Proportion of global print production

Eastern Europe

3% 4%

Middle East / Africa Latin America

6.1%

2.0%

1.5%

Average growth 3.5%

2000 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2010

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

2% 3%

2010

Print Media Academy

The future of print media Print media world market billion â&#x201A;Ź

Source: Pira survey 2004

600

73%

500 400 300

100 0 1998

2003

2008

2011

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

200

Print Media Academy

The future of print media / growth 1998- 2011 € billion Source: Pira survey 2004

200

54%

180 160 140

1998 2003 2008 2011

35%

100 80

580%

65% 60 40

700%

240%

20 0 Germany

Russia

China

Japan

USA

India

120

Print Media Academy

The future of print media / growth 1998- 2011 â&#x201A;Ź billion Source: Pira survey 2004

140 120 100 1998 2003 2008 2011

80 60

20 0 Newspapers Magazines

Books

Security

Commercial Packaging

Ads

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Print Media Academy

The future of print media / growth 1998- 2011 â&#x201A;Ź billion

Source: Pira survey 2004

140

120

100

80 1998 2003 2008

2011

0 Sheef-fed offset

Web (coldset)

Web (heatset)

Gravure printing

Screen printing

Flexographic printing

Letterpress printing

Digital printing

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Print Media Academy

The useful life of packaging is getting shorter

The number of relaunches and new introductions is increasing

Print runs are getting shorter and shorter â&#x20AC;&#x201C; warehousing is becoming a thing of the past

Products are requested more frequently and with shorter notice

The need for information on packaging is growing

Safety elements protect against liability risks

Environmental protection and recycling are becoming more important

Packaging strengthens the brand

The demands in terms of quality and technology are increasing

10. Use of electronics in packaging is becoming increasingly important (RFID)

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Trends in packaging printing

Print Media Academy

1. Printing formats are growing( 50+/ 76,2 cm) 2. Revolution in High Speed Inkjet Technology ( 122 m/ min.) 3. Number and kind of printing substrates is increasing ( Flexo/ Packaging) 4. Target market is the commercail offset market 5. Very low costs per page( 1 Cent 4c/ 0,15 Cent b/w) 6. No waste sheets/ fast make ready 7. Print on Demand 8. Web to Print 9. Hard fight for market leadership between HP and Xero 10. Also new technologies in toner ( Dimensional Toner, magnetic readable toner, gloss coatingâ&#x20AC;Ś)

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Trends in digital printing

Print Media Academy

The future of print media / paper consumption kg per capita 350

Source: Pira survey 2004

335

300

250 250

230

222 195

200

155

150

25 5

0 USA

Japan

Germany

France

Korea

Hongkong

Russia

China

India

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

100

Print Media Academy

The future of print media / paper consumption kg per capita 350

Source: Pira survey 2004

335

300

250 250

230

222 195

200

155

150

50 50

20 10 0 USA

Japan

Germany

France

Korea

Hongkong

Russia

China

India

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

100

Print Media Academy

Future of Print Media/ Paper Consumption What does this mean for the paper production ? •

Just for China and India it is more than 72 mill.tons more every year

•

The use of energy and resources is a very crucial issue for the industriy (Canada:245 000 football fields per year are used for wood supply ) The production of 1kg of paper uses

2,2 kg wood 100 l water 5 kWh primary energy On what substrate will we print in 25 years?

www.fpc.fi

Bild: Greenpeace

Print Media Academy

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Energy- will it be affordable in the future

Print Media Academy

CO2 Emissionen Not only the PMI but also the IT industry is affected by the very serious discussions,e.g

All PC`s connected to the internet, causing more CO2 emission than the worldwide air traffic

1 Quatar -45 2 Kuwait - 25 3 UAE - 24 4 Luxembourg - 23 5 Bahrain - 22 Source: World Resources Institute

6 USA - 20 26 Germany - 11 75 China - 3,5 120 India -1,1

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

CO2 Emissions per head/ per year/ in kilos

Print Media Academy

Future markets for the Print Media Industry • When we are looking for the most important developing markets, everybody will agree on the BRIC markets • Brasil, Russia, India and China have a huge potential for the PMI • The general economic growth in these countries will automatically generate a huge demand for printed products

• e.g. China is likely to be the world's most important market from 2008 onwards for the PMI

• Name des Autors • Datum • Dateiname

Print Media Academy 18

Growing market China • At the end of 2010 the chinese printing industry will generate 2,5 % of the chinese GDP ( 44 Bn. Euro) • Development of printing companies : Dozens of companies with a revenue of more than 100 mill. Euro. Several hundred companies with a target of more than 10 Mill. Euro

Shanghai Shenzhen ( 15.500 print shops 530.000 employees, 900 Mill.Euro revenue half the size of Germany, 80 mil. people) source: Chinese Print & Publishing Report

Beijing

Print Media Academy

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China - The growth market

Print Media Academy

But, be careful………

800

500

Print Media Academy

Change is not new Western- Europe Russia, East Europe

Allocation of GDP, worldwide Year 1000

1500

US/Kan/Mex/Aus/NZ Latin America Japan

Asia (w/o Japan) Africa

1950

2000

source: OECD

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

1870

Print Media Academy

Quality standards in the print media industry 100% 90%

Distribution 28%

27%

80%

35%

36%

45%

High-end products

Storage

70% Standard products

60% 50%

49%

34%

30%

10%

Binding

Low-end products

Folding

40% 30%

45%

20% 10%

23%

24%

31%

34%

Cutting

Printing

0% 1973

1981

1986

1990

2010

Source: Accenture 2002

Layout

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Prepress

Print Media Academy

Increase in net productivity of sheetfed offset printing • In 1975 one printer printed around 4,500 m2 of paper in 8 hours

Year

1975

1980

1990

Today

6,000

10,000

18,000

• With current technology this figure can reach 226,000 m2

• Today's technology is made up of around 45% mechanical systems, 35% electrical/electronic systems • and 20% software

Printed area

Productivity

4,500 m2

100%

24,000m2 59,000 m2 226,000 m2

500%

1,300%

5.000%

• In 1980 around 80% of the technology used was based on mechanical systems and just 20% on electrical/electronic systems

Sheets per hour

Print Media Academy

Evolution and innovations of printing presses: Productivity Technology

size/cm

pages

Gravure

432 width

60.000 rph

144 p. A4

8.640.000

Offset

151x205

12.000 sph

64 p.A4

768.000

Offset

75x105

18.000 sph

16 p. A4

288.000

Digital

31x45

2.400 sph

4 p. A4

KBA TR12B

A4/h

9.600

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

speed

Quelle: KBA

Print Media Academy

How will the world look like in 2015 ?

Boss

• Name des Autors • Datum • Dateiname

Print Media Academy 26

Heidelberg is analyzing various market scenarios, to prepare itself for the future

Print Media Industry

Communication Industry

Overall business climate

• Differentiation support new growth in the innovative printing industry

• Price pressure in parts of the printing industry: mainly niches can earn profit •

Print Service Provider

• Name des Autors • Datum • Dateiname

By constant consolidation the printing industry protects its traditional businesses

Printing Machines

Print Media Academy

As the overall media business is growing we expect print with a key role within the communication industry also in the future Printing means ... Telecom..

•

~20%

Telecom.

Radio

~30% •

Internet Radio Internet

...differentiation, to stand out from the crowd of electronic media ... easy handling

2007

2015

Assumption: Growth rate within Communication industry: 5.8% (=average/year), Growth rate in printing industry: 1%

Print Media Academy 28

Some of these innovation will have strong impact on printing

Wireless

Intellig. Packaging Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)

•

• •

Portable, with new display technology, easy handling, nearly as easy handling as paper Mobile-Commerce – new media for advertising industry

Could replace Bar-Code within next 5 – 10 years Conventional printing (e.g. Offset or Flexo) could have key role

•

Print Media Academy 29

How competitive will print be in 10 years? Optimistic scenario: „Print keeps its key role within the media mix” 100%

Radio Internet TV

Telecommunication

2008

2015

•

Print looses only little market share to electronic media

•

Printed paper will keep big advantage “see and feel”

•

Improvement in printing technology (personalization, short make ready, decreasing costs per sheet, etc.)

100%

Print Media Academy 30

How competitive will print be in 10 years? Pessimistic scenario: “Print will dramatically loose market share other media" 100%

100%

Radio

•

Improvements in display technology improve competitiveness of electronic media

•

Increasing pressure from environmental side with hit printing hard

•

High production costs: printing becomes luxury

Internet TV

Tele communication

2008

2015

Source: HEIDELBERG – Studie basiert auf internationalen Studien und Prognosen

Print Media Academy

Information technology Performance improvement of PCs 1990-2010 (Moore's Law)

Higher main memory

Higher bandwidth for networks Year Source: The Future of Print, Pira/Prima 2000

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Higher speed

Print Media Academy

New technologies and their possible impact on the printing industry Microsystem technology

Digital Micro Mirror Array (an array of rotatable aluminum mirrors)

Photonic

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Material technology

Future of Printing: Deepblack or pink?

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Print Media Academy

… what happens to printers’ business?

2015 Chance of tasks

Change of the structure of the printing industry

Change of technology

2008

Change of customer needs and – behavior

• Name des Autors • Datum • Dateiname

Print Media Academy

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

The future is impossible without highly skilled people

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Print Media Academy

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Print Media Academy

Thank you for your attention Detlev Dierkes, Print Media Academy

ÂŠ Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG

Executive Forum, Dubai