Without Trucks, America Stops

Carbon

BY JOHN EICHBERGER

We have all seen the bumper stickers—“Without trucks, America stops.” And it’s true. According to American Trucking Associations (ATA), 72% of the nation’s freight is moved by trucks. At the same time, as the industry and the nation consider strategies to reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector, these vehicles must be a focus of our efforts. They account for 24% of U.S. transportation greenhouse gas emissions. In doing so, we also must recognize the complexity and unique characteristics of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDV) to find solutions that balance environmental progress with economic activity.

WHAT IS AT STAKE?

To really understand the market, it is important to put it into context. The following data again comes from ATA:

• Gross freight revenues from trucking were valued at $875.5 billion in 2021, 80.8% of the nation’s total freight bill. This is equal to 4% of the U.S. gross domestic product.

• Commercial trucks paid $48.46 billion in federal and state highway-user taxes in 2020 (a pandemic year). This accounts for 24% of all government spending on roadways.

• There were 38.9 million trucks registered and used for business purposes in 2020.

• Registered trucks drove 302.14 billion miles in 2020 (again, a pandemic year) and consumed 44.8 billion gallons of fuel.

• 95.7% of for-hire carrier companies on file with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration operate 10 or fewer trucks.

• 7.99 million people were employed in jobs related to trucking in 2021, excluding those who were self-employed.

Because this sector is extremely diverse, reducing emissions will require a multifaceted approach that applies customized solutions to different vehicle types and use applications. According to a Fuels Institute report published in April, 94% of commercial vehicles sold are deployed in 17 different use-case applications, each of which carries with it unique operating characteristics and energy requirements.

MARKET SHARE OF ALTERNATIVE MHDVs IS LIMITED

According to data provided by Statista, 99.5% of commercial vehicles in the U.S. in 2020 were powered by diesel or gasoline-fueled engines. And despite growing discussions about electrification of the MHDV market, forecasts for market penetration remain relatively anemic.

The primary reason for the slow rate of adoption is price. Statista reports that electric-powered medium-duty trucks in 2025 will cost twice as much as comparable diesel vehicles, while heavy-duty electric trucks will cost more than 2.5 times as much.

For some applications, such as parcel delivery vehicles that travel a consistent range and return to a base each night and school buses that have prolonged downtime throughout the day, electrified powertrains are attractive for both emissions and economic reasons. Other segments of the MHDV market, however, do not present the same opportunities for electrification.

More Options For Mhdv Market

The diversity of vehicle type and duty cycle within the MHDV market makes application of some decarbonization strategies more challenging than within the light-duty market, but it also creates opportunities for more options that may not be viable with passenger vehicles. For example, incorporating more biodiesel and renewable diesel into the fuel supply can dramatically reduce the carbon intensity of the fuel these vehicles burn. In fact, these fuels represent a 68% reduction in carbon intensity compared with straight diesel fuel and can be blended in higher concentrations (thereby improving the associated carbon benefits) than most light-duty vehicles can accommodate with gasoline-ethanol blends.

MHDVs are also capable of running on a wide variety of gaseous fuels, like natural gas, which can lower carbon emissions. When renewable natural gas is used in these vehicles, the carbon intensity has the potential to be negative due to the nature of renewable gas.

In an era where decarbonizing transportation has been identified as a key objective, addressing the MHDV sector is critical. There are strategies that will fit certain use-case applications but not others. Recognition of this reality is important, especially when considering public policy initiatives.