U.S. Political Violence Risk Assessment

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C O R P O R AT E RISK SERVICES PHOTO CREDIT: REUTERS / SHANNON STAPLETON

Many people who gathered on Jan. 6 remained peaceful and may never have intended to participate in the violence themselves. However, there were individuals and groups present that expressly stated the above objectives both before and after Jan. 6. This includes social media discussions by accounts seen as leaders within far-right organizations (i.e. not by unknown potential ‘infiltrators’ of these groups).

Figure 7. Examples of Negative Sentiment Towards Police (Telegram / Proud Boys)

TRENDS Figure 5. Individual supporting domestic terrorism (Telegram)

Figure 6. Individual supporting domestic terrorism (Telegram)

Claim: These protestors can’t be far-right or pro-Trump because those individuals support law enforcement. Response: There are several frictions between and within far-right and pro-Trump groups at the moment. One of these includes attitudes toward law enforcement. While many Trump supporters support them, there are increasingly groups of pro-Trump supporters and the far-right that do not. In addition to the above Figure 4, G4S has identified a large number of conversations that highlight negative sentiment toward police and other law enforcement.

7 U.S. Political Violence Risk Assessment

Fragmenting Groups Despite the calls on social media for some type of violent altercations, the breach of the U.S. Capitol, while on some level successful for those participating in the violence, did not ultimately appear well coordinated. In reviewing video footage and first-hand accounts, once the protestors were inside there was little coordinated effort about what to do next or where to go. Most of the iconic photos from inside the capitol showed individuals wandering around, taking selfies and stealing items. There is no unifying organization or ideology among these groups, which makes identifying the threat a challenge. The emerging threat of political violence demonstrates evolving group dynamics both within and among various alt-right groups,such as Proud Boys, the III%ers, Oath Keepers,and multiple white supremacist groups. There are serious divides amongst those who reject violence versus those that support it, individuals and groups who support President Trump and those who do not, those who no longer support law enforcement versus those who adamantly do and those who are motivated primarily due to race and specifically white-supremacy and/or anti-Semitism versus those who are not. G4S Corporate Risk Services


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