201704

NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update Jake Crouch Climate scientist, climate monitoring branch, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

Jordan McLeod Regional climatologist, Southeast Regional Climate Center @ Univ. of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

Dan Collins Meteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Operations Prediction Branch April 2017

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April 2017

• March: +1.05°C above 20th century average – 2nd warmest Mar on record

Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles March 2017

– Largest non-El Niño monthly departure from average – 5th largest monthly departure from average

• Land: +1.98°C – 2nd warmest Mar on record – 3rd largest monthly departure from average

• Ocean: +0.71°C – 2nd warmest Mar on record

The global temperature record dates to 1880 (138 years) April 2017

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Jan-Mar 2017: +0.97°C above average, 2nd warmest on record.

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Temperature: 46.2°F, +4.7°F, 9th warmest March on record Precipitation: 2.56”, +0.05”, near median March Temperature Percentiles March 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

• Rockies and Great Plains were much warmer than average.

• CO and NM were record warm.

• The Northeast and parts of the Northwest were colder than average.

April 2017

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Precipitation Percentiles March 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

• Northwest, Northern Rockies, Central to Southern Plains, and Great Lakes were wetter than average.

• Southwest, Northern Plains, and Southeast were drier than average.

• Above-average snowpack for most locations in the West.

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Temperature: 40.3°F, +5.1°F, 2nd warmest year to date Temperature Percentiles Jan-Mar 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

Contiguous U.S. Jan-Mar Temperatures 1895-2017 Temperature Departures from 20th century average (F)

8 6 4 2

0 -2 -4 -6 -8 1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

2010

• Most of the contiguous US was warmer than average, with the exception of the Northwest • LA, MS, NM, OK, SC, and TX were record warm for Jan-Mar • Only Jan-Mar 2012 was warmer at 41.4°F April 2017

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8.2%

of Contiguous U.S. in Drought (

5.9 percentage points since late Feb)

• Improvement: Parts of the West, Great Plains, interior Southeast, and Northeast • Degradation: Parts of the Southwest and coastal Southeast to Mid-Atlantic • Outside CONUS: Drought expanded in Hawaii with abnormally dry conditions in Alaska

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Minimum temperatures on March 15th

Minimum temperatures on March 16th

Image source: SERCC Climate Perspectives April 2017

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April 2017

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Image source: SERCC Climate Perspectives

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March 1–15

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Image source: NOAA/NCEI

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Dec 1, 2016 – Feb 28, 2017 Mean Temperature Ranks

An exceptionally warm winter set the stage for a spring freeze to cause significant agricultural impacts across the Southeast. Many locations observed their top 5 warmest winter on record.

A persistence of above-average temperatures from December through February accelerated the growth cycle of many fruit crops across the region.

Premature budding and blooming of these crops were observed as early as January in some locations, which increases their vulnerability to spring frosts or freezes.

April 2017

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Image source: SERCC Climate Perspectives

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 Fruit crops were particularly hard hit, with over $1 billion in losses across Georgia and South Carolina. About 90% of South Carolina peaches and as much as 80% of blueberries in southern Georgia were destroyed by the freeze.  Other significant damage: – – – – –

Image source: Southeast Farm Press

April 2017

Peaches and pears in Georgia Strawberries and blueberries in South Carolina Blueberries and peaches in North Carolina Peaches and cherries in Virginia Various fruit and vegetable crops in northern and central Florida

 Moderate-to-severe frost damage was reported in winter wheat fields in nearly every state across the region. The seasonal green-up of livestock pastures, which were already struggling to recover from the drought, was further delayed.

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• Sea surface temperatures – Above normal SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific – Small area of below normal SSTs remains in the central Pacific

– Away from the equator, above normal SSTs across the Pacific and in the Gulf of Mexico – ENSO neutral conditions are present, while the La Niña of last winter has ended

• ENSO forecast – ENSO neutral is likely to persist through spring 2017 – The chances of El Niño increase to about 50% in late summer 2017 into the winter – A repeat of La Niña is unlikely in 2017 April 2017 April 2017

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May Average Temperature Probability

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May Total Precipitation Probability

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May-June-July Average Temperature Probability

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May-June-July Total Precipitation Probability

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April 2017 April 2017

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For More Information TODAY’S PRESENTATION: • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov

• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ • Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov Climate Portal: www.climate.gov Southeast Regional Climate Center: http://www.sercc.com/

NOAA Media Contacts: • John.Leslie@noaa.gov , 301-713-0214 (NOAA Communications/NESDIS) • Brady.Phillips@noaa.gov, 202-482-2365 (NOAA Communications/HQ)

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