Census & National Household Survey 2011: Strathroy-Caradoc Introduction
Contents
Most of these graphs and tables have been sitting on my computer for a while and would have just stayed there but for two things. First, I saw a report for a local area that covered some of the same ground, which told me I wasn’t the only person interested in this stuff. There were also some inaccurate figures in the report (one very significant) and I realized there aren’t many of us going over these numbers who can help spot each other’s mistakes … and mistakes will happen. There may be some here.
Introduction .............................................................. 1 Population................................................................. 2 Median age ............................................................... 5 Occupations .............................................................. 7 “Creative” occupations ........................................... 10 Population density .................................................. 11 University degree .................................................... 12 Any university or college degree, diploma, certificate ................................................................ 13 Employment in manufacturing ............................... 15 Employment in agriculture ..................................... 16 Relative strengths in employment.......................... 17 Median family income ............................................ 18 Median dwelling value ............................................ 19 Immigrants .............................................................. 20 Visible minorities .................................................... 21 Family doctors......................................................... 22
Second, SWEA recently started distributing reports about Southwestern Ontario that are also based on Statistics Canada data, although ones updated much more frequently. Information from the Census and National Household Survey is a good complement to those reports. It’s mostly a personal interest or hobby, partly fuelled by my experience in helping create the startup community in Waterloo and—after moving to Strathroy in 2010—analyzing differences between communities as I looked at how to adapt the success we had in Waterloo and the lessons learned there to help boost entrepreneurship-based economic development in other parts of Southwestern Ontario. For the last year, I’ve been doing this as a roving executive-in-residence at Communitech, covering the region. It’s written from a Strathroy-Caradoc perspective, but includes a lot of data about all of Southwestern Ontario. Apologies for some of the text sizes. Reading glasses … or a zoom … may be required! Gary Will gary@garywill.com www.garywill.com January 2014
Almost all of the data used in these pages came from the 2011 Census and National Household Survey, the final batch of which were released by Statistics Canada in 2013. There’s also data from the 2006 Census used for period-over-period comparisons.
Population In the five-year period from 2006 to 2011, the population of Strathroy-Caradoc grew by 5.1%—the second-highest among municipalities in both Middlesex County and the London metropolitan area, trailing only Middlesex Centre. It also had the 11th highest population growth rate in Southwestern Ontario among 97 lowest-tier municipalities and the 6th highest outside of Waterloo Region (which had, by far, the highest population growth among Southwestern Ontario regions). That growth came mostly from older residents. In the 20 to 44 age range, the population of Strathroy-Caradoc shrank 6.1% from 2006 to 2011. Because of aging baby boomers, this age range that showed declines across the province (although the average was only -0.3% thanks to some gains in the GTA and Ottawa). Across Southwestern Ontario, the Strathroy-Caradoc decline in the 20 to 44 range was middle-of-the-pack, with the steepest losses found in the Windsor-Essex and Chatham-Kent regions. Over the 10-year period from 2001 to 2011 (see next page), Strathroy-Caradoc’s population growth of 9.5% was again behind only Middlesex Centre among municipalities in Middlesex County. It was well above the 10-year growth rate for Middlesex County (6.2%) and also higher than the average growth rate for the London metro area (9.0%). Among the regions of Southwestern Ontario, the highest 10year population growth rate was in Waterloo Region (15.6%) and the lowest was Chatham-Kent (-3.4%) followed by Huron County (-1.0%), the only regions in Southwestern Ontario to record population declines in the 10-year period.
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Median age At the time of the 2006 Census, the median age in Strathroy-Caradoc was only slightly higher than the provincial average (39.2 years versus 39.0 years). With the growth in the older population, the gap has widened and the median age in Strathroy-Caradoc is now two years higher than the Ontario median (42.2 years versus 40.4 years). Among Southwestern Ontario municipalities, Strathroy-Caradoc is middle-of-the-pack for median age, which is also where it ranks within Middlesex County (which ranges from Lucan Biddulph at 38.9 years to Southwest Middlesex at 45.3). Regionally, London-Middlesex had the third-lowest median age in Southwestern Ontario at 39.8, up from 38.5 in 2006. At 37.7, Waterloo Region had the lowest median age among all regions in Southwestern Ontario and the second-lowest in the province.
For percentage of residents in the 20 to 44 age range (see next page), Strathroy-Caradoc ranked above the median In Southwestern Ontario with 28.6% of the population in that range. That was also above the Middlesex County average of 27.5%. The larger urban areas dominate the top of the list. Outside of the cities, Lucan Biddulph had the highest concentration of 20 to 44-year-olds in Southwestern Ontario at 32.2%. As the age distribution line on the next page illustrates, StrathroyCaradoc scores slightly higher than the provincial average for percent of residents aged 0 to 19. Then, as with most communities without a university or college campus, it drops well below the provincial average at age 20 and remains there for ages 20 to 35, when it starts Gary Will 路 www.garywill.com 路 gary@garywill.com 路 Twitter: garywill 路 Page 5
to get closer to the average. At around age 60, it climbs above the provincial average and remains there for all ages 60 and older (the much flatter line for London-Middlesex is also shown for comparison).
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Occupations
Retail positions account for four of the top 10: Overall, the most common occupation among residents of Strathroy-Caradoc was retail salesperson, the occupation of 4.2% of the working population. Retail sales was the second most common occupation of residents in both the 15 to 24 age range (behind food counter attendants/kitchen helpers) and the 45 to 64 age range (behind truck drivers). It was not one of the top jobs in the 25 to 44 age group, but retail management was. Overall, retail management was the fifth most common occupation, with food counter attendant/kitchen help sixth and cashier seventh. Gary Will 路 www.garywill.com 路 gary@garywill.com 路 Twitter: garywill 路 Page 7
Motor vehicle assembly/inspection/testing was the second most common occupation overall and the most common job among residents aged 25 to 44. Truck driving was the third most common job across all ages, in addition to being the most common occupation of residents aged 45 to 64. Construction/labourers was the second most common occupation in the 25 to 44 age range and eighth overall. Registered nurse was the fourth most common occupation in the municipality and was third in both the 25 to 44 and the 45 to 64 age ranges. Farming was the top occupation in the 65+ age category and ninth overall. Farm worker was the most common non-retail job in the 15 to 24 age range.
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“Creative” occupations Using definitions from Toronto’s Martin Prosperity Institute, Strathroy-Caradoc had a low score for its concentration of “creative class” workers—defined as “high autonomy jobs where workers are paid to think.” Among the working residents of StrathroyCaradoc, 19.4% worked in occupations classified as creative. That fell below the average for Southwestern Ontario (27.6%), London-Middlesex (31.5%) and Middlesex County (22.9%). Creative class occupations are typically more concentrated in larger urban areas. Within Middlesex County, Strathroy-Caradoc ranked behind Middlesex Centre and Thames Centre but ahead of the other municipalities. The most common occupation in Strathroy-Caradoc classified as creative was registered nurse. Across the regions of Southwestern Ontario, Waterloo Region had the highest concentration of “creative class” workers (32.2%) with London-Middlesex second, slightly ahead of Guelph-Wellington. Huron County had the lowest concentration (19.9%) followed by Haldimand County and Oxford County. Strathroy-Caradoc led the county and was wellabove average for Southwestern Ontario in “working class” occupations (30.7%)— “occupations that depend on physical skills and repetitive tasks.” It was about average for “service class” occupations—ones that “perform routine work directly for, or on behalf of, clients.” This is the largest of the classes. In the final class, farming, Strathroy-Caradoc (4.5%) had the lowest concentration in Middlesex County but was still above average for Southwestern Ontario due to the small numbers from the larger urban centres, which drag the average down.
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Population density Population density mostly separates rural and urban communities, although there are some very small rural communities (such as Newbury) that also have higher densities. Southwestern Ontario has a mix of urban, small urban, and rural communities, and that is reflected in the population density rankings. Most municipalities are small urban or rural, and outside of the cities and larger towns, Strathroy-Caradoc had one of the higher population densities across the region. Because the City of London has a lot of land area, its population density ranked below St. Thomas among the municipalities in the London metro area and Strathroy-Caradoc ranks third. Other than Newbury, Strathroy-Caradoc had the highest population density in Middlesex County, well ahead of the next-highest in Thames Centre (with Middlesex Centre close behind). Across Southwestern Ontario, Waterloo Region, with its three cities, had by far the highest population density among the regions. LondonMiddlesex was third.
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University degree Only 12.5% of Strathroy-Caradoc residents aged 25 to 64 have a university degree, which places it well below the average for Southwestern Ontario (20.9%) which itself is well below the provincial average (28.9%). Strathroy-Caradoc was also below the average across the five-county SCOR region (13.7%). Within Middlesex County, Middlesex Centre had the highest percentage at 26.6%—only slightly behind London’s 27.9%. Across Southwestern Ontario, the City of Waterloo’s score fell just below Richmond Hill’s for the highest in all of Ontario. Despite that, among the regions, Waterloo Region (26.1%) placed just behind Guelph-Wellington (27.4%) for top spot Southwestern Ontario for concentration of university graduates among its residents. London-Middlesex was third (26.1%) St. Thomas-Elgin had the lowest score among the Southwestern Ontario regions at 11.9%, followed closely by Chatham-Kent (12.0%). All regions of Southwestern Ontario fell below the provincial average (28.9%) as only five regions in province had above average scores—Ottawa and four in the GTA.
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Any university or college degree, diploma, certificate Broadening the filter from university degrees to any degree, diploma or certificate from a university or college, StrathroyCaradoc remained in about the same spot relative to other Southwestern Ontario municipalities and still below the median. In this case, though, London-Middlesex had the highest score among all Southwestern Ontario regions, driven by strong numbers for Middlesex Centre, London, Lucan Biddulph and Thames Centre, all of which had more than half their population aged 25 to 64 with some form of university or college certification. The average across London-Middlesex was 56.7%. Strathroy-Caradoc was at 42.3%. London-Middlesex fell just below the provincial average of 57.0% and, as with university degrees, it was Ottawa and the GTA that pushed the average up across the province. Outside of the GTA, only Ottawa and Kingston-Frontenac placed higher than LondonMiddlesex. Among the Southwestern Ontario regions, Guelph-Wellington was second behind London-Middlesex and Waterloo Region was third. Stratford-St. Marys-Perth County had the lowest score at 41.6%, followed by Huron County.
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When you break down the degrees, diplomas and certificates by major field of study (and this table also includes trades certificates and diplomas), it’s not surprising, given the previous numbers, that Strathroy-Caradoc places in the bottom half among the 97 lowest-tier municipalities in Southwestern Ontario for nearly all fields. The one exception is health and related fields, where Strathroy-Caradoc places in the top quartile among Southwestern Ontario municipalities and just out of the top quartile provincially. Postsecondary Studies Health and related fields Agriculture, natural resources and conservation Mathematics, computer and information sciences Humanities Visual and performing arts, and communications tech Physical and life sciences and technologies Personal, protective and transportation services Social and behavioural sciences and law Business, management and public administration Architecture, engineering, and related technologies
Ontario Rank (of 340) 89 119 176 177 178 184 206 232 233 251
SWO Rank (of 97) 21 55 54 59 53 58 57 65 66 65
And, while Strathroy-Caradoc doesn’t rank as highly in the other fields, it’s only slightly below the median for mathematics and computer science and fore visual and performing arts, so there is at least a base of residents with degrees and diplomas in those fields. Strathroy-Caradoc does not score well for graduates in business or architecture and engineering.
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Employment in manufacturing Although Southwestern Ontario is known as the manufacturing heartland of the province, the concentration of manufacturing jobs in the London metro area has long been the lowest among the region’s CMAs. Across Southwestern Ontario, Strathroy-Caradoc ranked middle-of-the-pack for the percentage of working residents employed in manufacturing, at 15.3% (down from 20.3% at the time of the 2006 Census). Other than Newbury, that was still the highest percentage in Middlesex County, where the average was 12.5%. While high for Middlesex County, the level of manufacturing employment in Strathroy-Caradoc fell below the average for Southwestern Ontario (15.4%) and for the five-county SCOR region (16.8%) but well ahead of the provincial average (10.2%). London-Middlesex had the second-lowest concentration of manufacturing employment among all Southwestern Ontario regions at 10.5%, ahead of only Bruce County (7.3%). The highest was Oxford County at 20.7%, followed by essentially a three-way tie between Guelph-Wellington, Waterloo Region and WindsorEssex. The top nine manufacturing regions in the province by percentage of total employment were all in Southwestern Ontario. LondonMiddlesex ranked 22nd.
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Employment in agriculture Statistics Canada includes farming in the “agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting” category, which—for Southwestern Ontario—will largely be farming. Like manufacturing, this is another sector that Southwestern Ontario is particularly known for, and at 4.6% Strathroy-Caradoc fell below the median for Southwestern Ontario municipalities in its percent of working residents employed in farming, although it was ahead of the 3.9% average for Southwestern Ontario (the average is lowered by the cities which have high populations and low employment in farming). Strathroy-Caradoc was also well below the 8.1% average for the SCOR region, which was also the average for Middlesex County—which is pushed up by Adelaide-Metcalfe, which had one of the highest concentrations of agriculture employment in Ontario. Outside of the cities, the entire region placed above the provincial average of 1.5% (which is for the entire agriculture-forestry-fishinghunting category). The London-Middlesex region had the second-lowest concentration of agriculture employment in Southwestern Ontario at 1.7%, ahead of only Waterloo Region. The highest was Huron County at 13.4%.
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Relative strengths in employment Compared to all of Ontario, Strathroy-Caradoc has well-above-average concentration of residents working in manufacturing, finance and insurance, and health care and social assistance. But the first two are strengths of Southwestern Ontario in general, and within the region, Strathroy-Caradoc doesn’t stand out for manufacturing and is only a little above the median for finance and insurance. Relative to other Southwestern Ontario municipalities, Strathroy-Caradoc has a notably high concentration of residents working in health care/social assistance as well as in retail. Industry Manufacturing Finance and insurance Health care, social assistance Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation, warehousing Construction Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Accommodation and food services Professional, scientific, technical Admin/support, waste management/remediation Real estate Arts, entertainment, recreation Information and cultural industries Educational services Public administration
Provincial rank (of 340) 66 79 81 102 115 118 131 137 165 181 189 203 216 219 245 264
SWO Rank (of 97) 44 35 12 36 10 34 34 64 46 46 55 64 70 67 65 60
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Median family income Strathroy-Caradoc fell in the bottom half of Southwestern Ontario municipalities for median family income (and for median individual income as well). It was also in the bottom half among municipalities in Middlesex County. Middlesex Centre had the highest median household income in Middlesex County and the fifth highest in Southwestern Ontario (and three above it are municipalities in Wellington County the border on the GTA). Thames Centre also placed highly on the list. Strathroy-Caradoc’s median household income of $72,743 was up 5.4% from $68,991 at the 2006 Census. Across the regions of Southwestern Ontario, Guelph-Wellington and Waterloo Region were the only two to place above the provincial average of $80,987. The Ontario average is pushed up by high medians in large urban areas in Ottawa and parts of the GTA (although not the City of Toronto itself). Chatham-Kent had the lowest median family income in Southwestern Ontario.
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Median dwelling value The median value of a house (or other residential dwelling) is lower in Strathroy-Caradoc than in most of Southwestern Ontario. Among Middlesex County municipalities, the ranking for dwelling value roughly follows the same order as income, with Middlesex Centre at the top, followed closely by Thames Centre. AdelaideMetcalfe, North Middlesex and Lucan Biddulph placed third, fourth and fifth (for household income they were fourth, fifth, and third, respectively), followed by Strathroy-Caradoc, Southwest Middlesex and Newbury. The median dwelling value in Strathroy-Caradoc was $210,760, which was about $20,000 below the median for LondonMiddlesex ($230,121). At the time of the 2006 Census, the median for Strathroy-Caradoc was $202,435 Three of the four municipalities with the highest median dwelling value were in Wellington County, and the Guelph-Wellington region had the highest median dwelling value among the regions of Southwestern Ontario at $300,421, followed closely by Waterloo Region. Chatham-Kent had the lowest regional median dwelling value at $149,775, followed by Windsor-Essex and Lambton County.
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Immigrants Strathroy-Caradoc scored in the top quartile of Southwestern Ontario municipalities for percentage of residents who are immigrants, although it did fall below the regional average (the average is pushed up by urban areas that have large populations and higher concentrations of immigrants). At 12.2%, Strathroy-Caradoc ranked 21st among the 97 lowest-tier municipalities in Southwestern Ontario. The average across Southwestern Ontario was 16.3%, led by Windsor at 27.1%. Strathroy-Caradoc placed well above the 10.8% average in the SCOR region as well as the 10.1% average in Middlesex County. No municipality in Southwestern Ontario was above the provincial average of 28.5%, but every municipality in Ontario outside of the GTA was below that average (some GTA municipalities were above 50%). The average among Ontario municipalities outside of the GTA was 15.1%, with Hamilton placing highest in that group. Across the regions of Southwestern Ontario, Waterloo Region had the highest concentration of immigrants at 22.3%, followed by Windsor-Essex and London-Middlesex, while Huron County had the lowest at 7.3%.
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Visible minorities In Southwestern Ontario, visible minorities are primarily concentrated in the larger urban areas with only a couple of exceptions. Only 1.8% of Strathroy-Caradoc residents were visible minorities, but that was still good enough for a middle-of-the-pack ranking in Southwestern Ontario. It was an increase from 1.3% in 2006. The average across Southwestern Ontario was 9.9%, pushed up by the urban areas. Strathroy-Caradoc also fell below the 2.0% average for the SCOR region. Every municipality in Southwestern Ontario fell below the provincial average of 25.9% (as with immigrants, only GTA municipalities had scores above the Ontario average). The average outside of the GTA was 9.6% with Ottawa receiving the highest numbers. The counts for some municipalities were likely less than the sampling errors, since the numbers get very small. Among Southwestern Ontario regions, Waterloo Region had the highest score for visible minorities at 15.4%, followed very closely by Windsor-Essex. London-Middlesex was third. Huron County had the lowest concentration at 0.8%.
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Family doctors Strathroy-Caradoc scored well above average in Southwestern Ontario for family doctors per capita (this does not include specialists, where the municipality also receives a high score thanks to the hospital). Among the regions of Southwestern Ontario, London-Middlesex had more family doctors than any other area, narrowly ahead of GuelphWellington. And, aside from Newbury, Strathroy-Caradoc had the most family doctors per capita of any municipality in LondonMiddlesex. Family doctors typically serve a roster of patients that includes many from outside of their own municipality, so a community could be well-served even if it doesn’t have a large number of physicians within its own border, as long as there are doctors nearby. So it is not necessarily the case that the further down the list a municipality falls, the less access its residents have to a family doctor. If specialists are added to the count, London-Middlesex had by far the most physicians per capita of any Southwestern Ontario region, with 3.00 per 1,000 residents. Well back in second place was Stratford-St. Marys-Perth with 1.74. Data on the number of family doctors is from the Ontario Physician Human Resources Data Centre (OPHRDC); population data is from the 2011 Census.
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