March 13, 2014 GBAHB 2014 Housing Forecast Seminar Grayson Glaze, CCIM, CPM ACRE Executive Director
Special Thanks to our Founding Partners Since 1996 -‐ Formed by Alabama Legislative Act
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ACRE’s CORE PURPOSE
PROVIDE RELEVANT RESOURCES IN THE AREAS OF….
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
v 5-‐Year Window (‘09-‐’13) v Annual Comparison (2013 vs 2012) v Month – Latest Data (February 2014) v Birmingham New Home Production v Housing Forecast v Economic Outlook v Potluck Thursday v Take Home ”Resources”
BIRMINGHAM
JANUARY 2011
v v v v v v
62 Total New Home Sales compared 425 in Jan ‘08 14.1 Month of Supply (8.3 ‘08) YOY Sales down 35% YOY Permits down 5% YOY Starts down 25% YOY Avg Sales Down 15%
v 2nd
to Last of 5 Metro Market
ROCK APARTMENT ADVISORS BIRMINGHAM,ALABAMA
In Memory – Marshall O’Neil Photo at 2010 ACRE/GBAHB VIP Party/Mike Wedgeowrh’s The Viridian
Count your Blessings… YOU survived
7
ALABAMA SUPPLY – AVERAGE # LISTINGS
Inventory down only 15% since 2009 | Equilibrium = 21,580 units
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BIRMINGHAM SUPPLY – AVERAGE # LISTINGS Inventory down 27% since 2009 | Equilibrium = 6,000+/-‐ units
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BHAM NEW HOME SUPPLY – AVERAGE # LISTINGS | Equilibrium = 500+/-‐ units Inventory down 58% since 2009
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ALABAMA -‐ TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES Still 27% from 2006 Peak of 59,222 @ 5% (last 3-‐yr average) = YR 2020
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BIRMINGHAM -‐ TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES Still down 37% from 2006 peak (18,805) | @ 7% (last 3-yr avg) = Yr 2021
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BIRMINGHAM -‐ TOTAL NEW HOME SALES
Still down 61% from 2008 (3,635 units) & 30% from 2009 @ 13% (last 2-yr avg growth) = Yr 2021-2022 to reach 2008
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ALABAMA -‐ DAYS ON MARKET BEFORE SOLD DOM still up 5% vs ‘09
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BIRMINGHAM - DAYS ON MARKET BEFORE SOLD is Goods News for Market DOM down 19% since 2009 | Trend
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ALABAMA -‐ MEDIAN SALES PRICE Median Price UP 5.4% since 2011 bottom
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BIRMINGHAM -‐ MEDIAN SALES PRICE Median Price UP 16% since 2011 (8% per year)
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BHAM NEW HOME -‐ MEDIAN SALES PRICE
Median Price UP 26% since 2010 bottom (9% avg per year)
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BHAM NEW HOME -‐ AVERAGE SALES PRICE
Average Price UP 24% since 2010 bottom (8% avg per year)
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ALABAMA -‐ ANNUAL COMPARISON
2013 VS 2012 | 3rd Consecutive Yr of Sales Growth – 2% in’11, 6% in ‘12)
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BIRMINGHAM -‐ ANNUAL COMPARISON
2011 was first positive sales growth @ 2% since 2006 2012 was also up 10% over 2011 -‐ Trending in Right Direction
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BHAM NEW HOMES -‐ ANNUAL COMPARISON 2012 was first positive sales growth @ 16% since 2006) Trending in Right Direction
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
41% dn from Peak New Home Inventory = 705 units or 10% Supply Dn 4% from Feb 13 |
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Months of Supply: DOWN 5% from February 2013 | 45% down from Peak(Feb’10)
New Home I/S in February = 6.8 months
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Sales Up .5% from Feb 2013 | 42% down from Peak in Feb 2006
New Home Sales = 104 units or 14% of all sales vs 12% in Feb 2013
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
YOY Monthly Comparison: DOM Unchanged from Feb 2013 | 6% Down from 3-‐yr Avg (110)
No Bham DOM data for New Construction
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Prices UP 8.3% from Jan 2013 1-2% Avg. Annual Growth since 2004 | 6% off peak February 2006
New Home Median Price up 26% or $53,922
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BHAM TREND LINES RED
= NEW HOMES SOLD | GREEN= USED SOLD
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BHAM TREND LINES RED
= NEW HOMES LISTED | BLUE = NEW SOLD
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BHAM TREND LINES TOTAL
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
SALES VOLUME BY $ (2006-2014)
ACRE
Bham New Home – Market Share by Closed Transactions (last 12 months thru 2/2014) DR
HORTON 12% / SIGNATURE HOMES 7%
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
BHAM TREND LINES AVERAGE
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
PRICE – NEW HOMES BLUE
ACRE
Bham New Home – Market Share by SALES PRICE (last 12 months thru 2/2014)
$200,000-299,000
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
= 40% | $300,000-$399,000 = 30%
ACRE
NEW HOMES SUPPLY Building Permits still off 29% from 2008 Housing Starts still off 33% from 2008 2013 – Permits up 18% / Starts up 19% BHAM JANUARY PERMITS Down 20% | Start Dn 7%
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Missed by 1.5% or short by 218 units
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Sales Forecast = 41,799 units | Actual = 43,079 units
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
Missed by: 3%
|
ACRE
Sales up 8.2% or 80 more units per month | NEW HOME 7-‐12% RANGE
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Sales up 5% or 180 more units per month
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
GRADUAL
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
Progress
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
GRADUAL
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
PATIENCE
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK AL
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
1.1% / US 2.09% (Dec ‘13)
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK AL
TYPICAL LAGS US BY 12-18 MOTNHS
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
STABLE
ACRE
ROCK APARTMENT ADVISORS BIRMINGHAM,ALABAMA
Potluck
THURSDAY 52
TRULIA: RENT VS BUY In
100 markets – on average 38% cheaper to BUY Birmingham was 56% cheaper to BUY
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ALABAMA -‐ MEDIAN SALES PRICE
Median Price Average Annual Appreciation since 1975 – 7% per year
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ALABAMA Multifamily OCCUPANCY
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
RATE TRENDS
ACRE
US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
EXPANSION
ACRE
US ECONOMIC LONG-TERM OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
STEADY
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
FAVORABLE (Starts up 30% in’15, 10% in ’16)
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
FAVORABLE
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
Ground ZERO – Good News – 175,000
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK Keyword:
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
EXCITING
ACRE
US HOUSING OUTLOOK THRU 2015 ARE
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
YOU CONFIDENCE?
ACRE
www.acre.cba.ua.edu
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Interactive Housing Data
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
150+ Articles per Year ACRE / al.com Strategic Partnership
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Organize for Growth Launched January 2013 -‐ Critical Funding for ACRE Digitial Multimedia Newwork
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Organize for Growth Leadership Council provide market insight to ACRE ! Now over 80 members
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ACRE RESEARCH
Weekly WiRE | 15 Local/State Monthly Reports | Fee-‐Based Projects
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Research -‐ Community Impact
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Research -‐ Collaboration
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ACRE EDUCATION
70+ CE COURSES | PUBLICATIONS | ACREcon & Summits
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
ACRE OUTREACH
INDUSTRY– 10 Events per Yr | STUDENT– 12 Events | ALUMNI – 80+ Yrs
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE
Build Community – ACRE in ACTION Samaritan's Purse
www. acre.cba.ua.edu
ACRE