2014 Housing Forecast – Tammie Smoot, Builders Digital Experience

Page 1


Tammie Smoot Digital Marketing Consultant * Building Industry Specialist – 19 Years • MIRM, MCSP, CAPS, CGA, AA, Broker • 2013 NSMC Chair • 2011 NAHB PWB Woman of the Year • 2011 NAHB NSMC Bill Molster Award • 2010 NAHB MCSP of the Year! • 2009 NC Distinguished Associate of the Year!


BDX : Who we are A team of online marketing experts. Solutions to create the complete digital experience Â


Distribution  partners Â


Advertising Partners Contextual

Lifestyle

Mobile (Tablet)

Paid Social

+ VAN

5


May I Ask a Favor? 1.  7 Brilliant Things Tammie Said 2.  Facebook : Builders Digital Experience 3.  Tweet -­‐ #the_BDX 4.  Who is Bill Barnes? 5.  Thank You to our HBA Staff


Agenda •  Industry Initiative 2013 •  New Home Shopper Tracking Study •  BDX Toolkit •  Insights & Implications


Strategic Industry Initiative Expanding the New Home Market

The New Home Industry has a problem & It is 8me to do something about it! 8


What is Start Fresh. Buy New? –  Large scale, industry wide campaign promoting the advantages of newly-­‐built homes to home shoppers. –  Comprehensive, national research plan to gain insights from both consumers and agents.

–  First-­‐of-­‐its-­‐kind consumer marketing & promotional campaign reaching millions of home shoppers in 2013. .


Examine Significant Industry Questions How is the generational cohort shift affecXng the shopping process?

How is the face of today’s home shopper changing?

Why is appeal for new growing/waning?

What are the primary barriers to “New” home purchases?


Capture “Pulse of Shoppers” How financially confident are home shoppers at the moment?

What type of appliance brands are most appealing to shoppers?

What type of incentives are most motivating to shoppers? Which options are most popular today?


Website www.star<reshbuynew.com

* Video views: >360k *Total site visits: >1.1MM Engagement: Time spent: 03:20 min



Most Popular Site Content


Start Fresh. Buy New. Digital Ads


Research Â


Insights from Home Shoppers, Recent Buyers & Real Estate Agents Summer 2013 Tracking Study BDX & Hanley Wood 17

Š 2013 Builders Digital Experience, Inc. All rights reserved.


Additions and Changes to Research in 2013 •  2012/13 National R.E. Agent Study •  >4k active agents across 25 MSAs

•  Completed 2nd Annual National Home Shopper Study • Added 6 new markets (31 total MSAs) • Included recent home buyers • Deep dive into “Quality” and value/cost perception • More extensive list of builders for brand awareness section

18

© 2012 Builders Digital Experience, Inc. All rights reserved.


Agent Study Executive Summary 1 2

Realtors overwhelmingly rely on MLS to learn about new builder properties •

While realtors have a good understanding of why people are buying, they overestimate why buyers work with realtors •

Buyers look to realtors for help finding a home and negotiating price rather than mkt knowledge

3

About half of all realtors prefer to sell existing homes

4

Nearly two-­‐thirds of realtors believe that builders are not offering useful training about how to sell new homes

5

As expected, realtors recognize that new homes outperform existing homes on energy efficiency, customization, etc.

19

Beyond MLS, realtors learn about new homes through builder announcements and from other agents/brokers

Those that are not likely to recommend new homes to prospective buyers cite difficulties with pricing and convincing buyers of the value

Similar to prospective buyers, realtors have varying opinions about whether new homes offer higher quality construction than existing homes


90%

of homes sold are “Used”

But 18% of Home Shoppers Preferred New


of shoppers are considering both New and Used


of  shoppers  who

initially prefer New,

ultimately buy Used


Longer Buying Cycle


Resulting Marketing Gap & Opportunity‌

The Majority of the Realtors and Home Shoppers think that used homes are more affordable


Know your Competition


agents are crucial

85% of recent home buyers worked with an agent

91%

of those preferring new yet bought used worked with an agent


Boomers Are an “Easy-er” Sell Have a home ownership rate of 76%, 21% higher than the US overall home ownership rate 86% of Home Owning Boomers live in Single Family Detached homes Are 13% more likely to prefer new homes over existing homes (and 14% less likely to prefer existing over new) Boomers have higher incomes, better credit, more wealth…

27

Top triggers: •  Favorable home prices •  Favorable interest rates •  Considering retirement •  Tired of current house •  Relocated to new city •  Desire to live closer to family/friends

February Source: Metrostudy Analysis; BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey

6,


Especially Compared to Boomers, Gen Y Is a Harder Sell, But They Are Looking Have an estimated ownership rate of only 44% Most impacted by tougher credit and down payment standards Are 14% less likely to prefer new homes over existing homes (and 5% more likely to prefer existing over new) Top triggers: •  Favorable home prices •  Favorable interest rates •  Planning to increase to family size •  Increase in income •  Getting married/moving in with partner •  Increasing rent

28

Source: Metrostudy Analysis; BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey February

6,


Realtors’ Focus on What’s Most Important Does Not Align with Buyers Or What Helps Sell New Homes Most Important Home Features for Driving Recommendations to Clients

100

A

O

S

H

J L

75

T

P

Importance*

50

Average

K

Q

E

D

F

M

C

U

V

N

R

B

25

Overall Importance 0

Attribute *Derived Importance: The scores are shown as relative importances using TreeNet Analysis

29

G

I

A Lower cost per square foot/More space for the money B Lower maintenance costs (money and time spent) C More living space D Less living space E Proximity to good schools F Convenient to shopping/ entertainment/activities G Safer neighborhood H Character/Uniqueness of home I Convenient to work J Convenient to friends/family K Larger yard or lot/More space between houses L Established neighborhood M Ability to customize house to best suit you and your family N Community amenities (pool, park, golf course, etc.) O Quality of construction P Architecture/Overall design (appearance of house) Q Better floor plans for me and my family R Energy efficiency S Sense of community within neighborhood T Mature trees & landscaping U Prestige/Exclusivity V Storage space

Base: All (3,044) ● Q19: For each attribute below please indicate the extent to which you believe existing and new homes offered by builders differ? Use your mouse to slide the marker towards your answer. ● Q15: When working with a client to purchase a home, how likely are you to recommend they purchase….


Changing Market Conditions Have Spurred More Traffic and a Higher Percentage of First Time Buyers % 1st Time Homebuyers

Educa8on

60%

60%

38

27

40%

40%

20%

Prospects Wave 1

58

34

29

26

29

0%

Prospects Wave 2

<Bachelors

Bachelors

Graduate or Pro. Degree

Age

Income

60%

49

40%

30

40%

27

20%

22

15

0%

$50-­‐$100k

$100-­‐$150k

Prospect Wave 1

30

42

20%

0%

60%

40

$150k+

20%

29

33

20

23 25

11

18

11

18 10

0%

25-­‐29

30-­‐39

Prospect Wave 2

Source: BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey

40-­‐49

50-­‐59

60+


More Renters Are Shopping

Foreclosures ??

Current (Prospect) Primary Residence

100% 75%

5

78

50% 25%

Prospect Wave 1

Prospect Wave 2 Own Rent

61

57

39

43

Prospect Wave 1

Prospect Wave 2

83

52

39

0%

31

3

48

61

Type of Home

Type of Construc8on

Ownership

17

14

Prospect Wave 1

Prospect Wave 2

Custom built on own lot ExisXng Home Brand new home offered by builder

Source: BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey

Single Family Detatached Other


Once Again, Life Drives Home Buying

32

Source: BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey


Realtors Remain a Critical Partner in the Buying Process

Reasons for Using a Realtor

Intend to Use Realtor Don't Know

No

Prospect Wave 1

Yes

100%

Prospect Wave 2 70

Help negotiate terms/price

66

Coordinate viewings/appointments

75%

73 68 72 65 71 63 67 61 67 63 67 61 65

Find homes with your specifications

84

Draft offers and contracts

85

Assistance navigating you through the purchase process

50%

Have more up to date information on available properties Knowledge of market conditions

25%

4 12

3 12

Prospect Wave 1

Prospect Wave 2

Determine what comparable homes sell for References for inspectors, contractors, lawyers, etc.

0%

33

Knowledge about the neighborhood

Source: BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey

0%

75

53

58 51 53 25% 50% % of respondents

75%


Top Criteria Remain Largely Unchanged: Quality Reigns Supreme

12.00

Mean importance

10.00

Quality of construction Safer neighborhood

8.00

6.00

Average

Top 10 Most Important Considerations for Home Purchase

Better floor plans

Lower maintenance costs Energy efficiency More Lower cost living space per sq. footArchitecture/Larger yard Overall design or lot Convenient to work

4.00

Wave 1 New Segment Wave 1 Indifferent Segment 2.00

Wave 2 New Segment Wave 2 Indifferent Segment

0.00

34

Source: BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey


New Homes Have Improved/Maintained Performance in Many Areas But Lost Ground on Quality Attribute Performance (sorted from high to low based on gap between new minus existing) New is Better

Existing is Better

Prospect Wave 1 Prospect Wave 2

100%

75%

50%

2 2 5 7 7 6 6 6 9 8 10 11 12 11 14 13 18 20 11 13 25 29 25%

77 80

Energy efficiency 63 61 58 58

Ability to customize house Lower maintenance costs 47 49

Beger floor plans for me and my family

34 41 35 38 36 39

Community ameniXes More living space Storage space 23

PresXge/Exclusivity

31 31 33

Architecture/Overall design 20 21

Safer neighborhood

31 30

Quality of ConstrucXon 0%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Note: Movement of approximately 4 pp is considered meaningful

Items rated on an 11pt slider scale with anchored ends. Data shown excludes middle 3 points. Items sorted by gap score (new-existing). Existing is Far Better (4pts)

35

No Difference (Middle 3pts)

Source: BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey

New is Far Better (4pts)


Buyers Use Essentially the Same Factors to Determine Quality of New and Existing Homes How do we combat this? Importance of Criteria for Determining Quality (among shoppers who will or did consider each type of home) Existing Quality New Quality 14

Durability 11 12 12 12 11 11

Workmanship/Craftsmanship Structural Materials Fit and finish

11 11 11 11 10 10

9 8

Warranty

9

10 10 9 9 9

11 10

Architectural Design

9 9

Performance specifications Energy ratings

7

7

8 8

6 5 5 5 5 4

Built to specifications Newest technology Good for the environment/green

Prospects

0

5

5

Recent Buyers

0 0

Other Â

36

13 13

16

10

15

20

7 7 6 6 6

0 0 0

5

Source: BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey

10

15

20



Segment Summaries

Who are they? (Compared to other segments)

What have they done?

Which features are most important to them? Are new construction homes differentiated* these features? What are perceived barriers to purchasing a new construction home?

Indifferent Segment

Existing Segment

18% of the market

36% of the market

47% of the market

•  Slightly more educated •  Over index on Entry Level, Renters

•  Slightly younger •  Most likely to work full time •  More likely to be first time purchasers •  Expect to spend less •  More likely to be planning for an increase in family size •  Over index on Feature & Location, AA Entry Level, Renters

•  More likely to have visited model homes •  Spoken with builders

•  Engage in both new and existing behaviors (looking at model homes, looking at home listings online, and driving around looking of homes) •  More likely to have watched TV shows about local homes/real estate

•  •  •  •  •

•  Quality of Construction

•  Quality of Construction

•  Quality of Construction

•  Better Floor Plans

•  Better Floor Plans

•  Better Floor Plans

•  Safer Neighborhoods

•  Safer Neighborhoods

•  Safer Neighborhoods

•  Lower cost per sq. foot •  Larger lot •  Character/uniqueness

•  •  •  •

•  •  •  •  •

Slightly older More likely to be retired Less likely to be first-time purchasers Slightly higher incomes Over index on Elite

•  Lower cost per sq. foot •  Larger lot •  Less living space

*Performance gap (new-existing) score: than existing (<0) 38

New Segment

Much better than existing (20+ higher),

Looked at home listings Visited an existing home Spoken with a realtor Sought pre-approval for a loan Bid on a property

Quality of Construction Lower cost per sq. foot Overall Design Larger lot

On par with or slightly better than existing (0 to 19),

Source: BDX 2012 and 2013 Homebuyer Insights Study, Hanley Wood, Chadwick Martin Bailey

Worse


Builder Toolkit


Builder Toolkit

Available on‌.







46


Insights & Implications


The process is lengthy & emotional… the joy gap is real Life in a NEW home

Excitement “I’m ready for a new adventure!”

Exhilaration “I found the house!”

Tentative Excitement “We did it, but now what?”

Joy

-  Joy! -  Relax – focus on your “wantto-do” list

JOY Gap Life in an EXISTING home - Joy (guarded) -  Stressed – list of “to-do’s” is long

Worried “I hope I make the right choice.” “Who can I trust?”

BEGIN JOURNEY

Nervous “Can I afford it?” “Did I buy a lemon?”

Cautious “Will the build process go okay?” (new) “What will the inspectors find?” (existing)

OFFER ACCEPTED

MOVE-IN DATE


9 out of 10 buyers start their new home search online.

Are your new homes on the HBA Website?



For effective consumer messaging…

…illuminate shortcomings of Used homes


…and emphasize the attributes shoppers value most Designed for Living

Low Cost of Ownership

Energy Efficiency

Quality Construction


Start with quality content: image quality

+15% Average

-­‐15%


Set Yourself Apart????


Builder Insights Initiative


1,500,000 Â unique monthly shoppers

Interest

Desire

Behavior

Unleash the value and power of BDX Audience


Brand Awareness, Perception & Opinion What is your local brand How do you stack up with awareness, aided & unaided?

regards to value?

How likely would a shopper refer you to a friend?

What can I do to improve my image?

How would you rate each of these builders as far as construc8on quality is concerned?


Realtors Primarily Rely on MLS to Learn about New ProperXes Sources of Informa8on

Mul8ple lis8ng service (MLS) Builder announcements (e.g., e-­‐mails, etc.) Other agents/brokers New community/model home visits New home open houses hosted by builders Local real estate lis8ng websites Local Real Estate/New Home Publica8ons Online search engines (i.e., Google, Yahoo, etc.) Online adver8sement Local newspaper adver8sements Billboards and roadside signage Local newspaper ar8cles Na8onal real estate lis8ng websites Social media (i.e., Facebook, Twiier, etc.) Local magazine/publica8on Television adver8sement Radio adver8sing Other None of these

80 49 45 38 37 29 25 20 18 18 16 16 13 13 7 5 5 8 1 0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

% of respondents Base: All, 3,044 ● Q14: How do you become aware of new homes offered by builders that are available to prospecXve (residenXal) buyers that you work with? Select all that apply.

58


Ask Your Home Owners


THANK YOU FOR ATTENDING Tammie Smoot MIRM, MCSP, CAPS, CGP Digital Marke8ng Consultant– Building Industry Specialist Builders Digital Experience 2011 NAHB Professional Women In Building – Woman of the Year 2013 NAHB NSMC Chair The Carolinas 704-­‐507-­‐4411 Tsmoot@theBDX.com

Builders Digital Experience


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.