Gleadell viewpoint autumn 2010

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AUTUMN 2010 VOL 8, ISSUE 2 www.gleadell.co.uk

Russia lights the fire of another bull market… The dramatic move in global grain markets has taught us, yet again, that we live in volatile and extremely fast moving times. The London November 2010 LIFFE market moved from £105 in early July to close to £160 in less than five weeks. The catalyst for this dramatic move was the end of summer extreme heat and drought in much of Russia’s grain belt which slashed production to the point that the barriers went up and Russia banned exports. The knock-on effects of the cancellation of sales under the GAFTA prohibition by government clause, and the rush to replace existing contracts, added fuel to the fire and pushed demand

Many pundits say that we are not in a 2007/8 situation and point to the world wheat stock situation - 174.66 million tonnes as of today vs. 124.1 million tonnes in 2007. However, the location of today’s stocks puts a different slant on these figures. According to the USDA, of the wheat stocks in the world, nearly 50% will be held by the world’s major importers, people who won’t or can’t sell. Additionally, with another 15% held by India and regions operating under current, or potential future grain export restrictions, demand has moved firstly to the EU and, we predict, will soon move to the USA whose stocks are large, but whose prices are currently above those of the EU. Of course, most wheat that trades internationally is almost all milling wheat and the feed grain market has alternatives to use - maize, feed barley, sorghum, rye, tapioca - alongside feed wheat.

from importing countries such as Egypt towards France at a rate that may see 8 million tonnes of France’s 11 million tonne surplus exported by Christmas.

The need is therefore very apparent for another large world wheat crop in 2011 and on the Australian / Argentine crops to deliver soon. Continued dryness and a closing planting weather window is already casting doubts on whether Russia will resume exports anytime soon and we don’t need a lot to go wrong to see what started as a July weather market turn into a multi-year bull market that would signal a significant departure from the boom / bust scenario we saw in 2007/8 and 2008/9. We firmly believe that Gleadell has a defined, positive role to play in helping the evolution of all grain markets of the future in many sectors of what will continue to be fast moving and volatile markets. David Sheppard, managing director, Gleadell Agriculture

Gleadell Agriculture Limited

Contents MARKET PROSPECTS

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Gleadell’s traders discuss the market prospects for feed grain, milling wheat, pulses and the organic sector.

FOCUS ON OILSEED RAPE

03

With a likely 5-8% increase in the oilseed rape area, we take a look at varieties, oilseed market prospects and the Gleadell Harvest 2010 Oilseed Rape Pool results.

FOCUS ON FERTILISER

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Our fertiliser business continues to expand based on our global knowledge and the strength of the supply contracts initiated by our parent company, AC Toepfer. We examine market prospects, global perspectives and recent trials that show the value of AN as a fertiliser for wheat.

FOCUS ON MALTING BARLEY

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In recent years the specialist malting barley grower has had a roller coaster ride, but now the future is bright for malting barley - and also Null-Lox varieties provide a new market outlet.

GREAT YARMOUTH GRAIN TERMINAL

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The Great Yarmouth Grain Terminal opened in time for harvest and has been busy ever since – with a brief pause for the official opening in the autumn.

GLEADELL AROUND THE COUNTRY The new north-west office is the latest stage in Gleadell’s development around the country.

www.gleadell.co.uk

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