Gleadell Viewpoint Spring 2015

Page 1

SPRING 2015

By Appointment to Her Majesty The Queen. Supplier of Quality Seeds Gleadell Agriculture Ltd Lincolnshire

VOL 13, ISSUE 1

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www.gleadell.co.uk

How to avoid selling at the bottom of the market The graph below shows two things – the blue columns indicate the volume of wheat sold by farmers to Gleadell on a monthly basis in the period February 2014 to December 2014 for the 2014/15 marketing season, while the orange line shows the futures market price during the period, which ranged from over £160/t down to £115/t.

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The story of a market

It’s going to the moon – I’m going to be loaded!

170 165 160

Damn – I missed the top! I’ll sell on the next wave...

155 It’s going to the moon! I’m not selling...

Ouch! As soon as it goes up I’m selling!

Ah – the price is going up... let’s watch the market.

145 I knew it was too cheap.

140

It can’t go much lower, surely?!!

The basic story of this graph is that the lower the market fell, the more wheat was sold.

135

What the hell? I’m not selling it here – it has to come back. It looks cheap!

130 125

Volume of ex-farm wheat sold versus market price movement.

There’s no hope – I’m selling everything!

120

180

140

£/t

120

Thousand tonnes

100 80 60 40 20

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

0

2014

This is not a new phenomenon. Indeed, in 1997 Banks Agriculture looked at the same sort of data for that marketing season, and the figures were very similar, albeit the wheat price was significantly lower! What are the reasons for this sort of behaviour – and why does it keep on happening? The answer is we are all human, and fear and greed are the key drivers for all markets and always have been. The chart to the right illustrates the ‘story of a market’ and the emotions that are probably familiar to most who market grain.

GleadellAg

@gleadells

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

115

You what???

Glad I sold all of my wheat!

160

Key

150

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

110

Given that not many farmers hit the top of the market, and that avoiding market lows should be the key aim, what can be done to assist farmers’ grain marketing? Here are some key points that may help: Use a good grain pool for a percentage of grain. The amount allocated should reflect the time any individual can commit to grain marketing and their appetite for risk. It should be remembered that it is in the interests of a good pool to return good results. Look ahead for forward prices that allow one to lock into values that cover anticipated costs of production. Understand that fundamental market factors such as supply and demand are not the only market drivers nowadays. Fund activity, technical market analysis and currency movements are worthy of some understanding and need to be taken into account. Grain marketing on one’s own account takes time and effort. Farmers should be prepared for this if they are marketing their own grain. Don’t be forced into marketing purely to suit movement or cash flow requirements. Use the HGCA sellers’ checklist – this useful guide reminds farmers to check the terms they trade on once a trading decision has been made. Whilst there is no guarantee that following these sorts of guidelines will achieve market highs, we are sure that this sort of template will, over the long term, achieve better-than-average prices, which is surely a realistic, achievable aim for all farmers. David Sheppard, managing director, Gleadell Agriculture

Gleadell Agriculture Limited


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