Gleadell Viewpoint Spring 2011

SPRING 2011 VOL 9, ISSUE 1 www.gleadell.co.uk

Where next for Grain prices?

Worldwide grain prices have again caught the attention of the popular media over the past six months as we have seen a fundamental supply squeeze translated into sky rocketing price levels for all grains and oilseeds.

The Russian export ban, the Ukrainian export ban and subsequent quota system, the USA’s insatiable appetite for corn (maize) in bioethanol plants - which is expected to grow to 40% of total US production in 2011/2 - and an extremely tight supply and demand situation in EU grain markets have all combined to push the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation’s global price index to an all time high. It is now above the levels seen in 2008.

Contents MARKET PROSPECTS

The chart below here looks back at the last twelve years for the November LIFFE wheat contract and, if projected forwards, it would indicate two things. Firstly, that prices will remain extremely volatile and will move more dramatically than we have seen before.

Secondly, that farmers will be given good opportunities to secure a profit for forward marketing years by locking into attractive grain prices at the same time as booking their nitrogen requirement.

The price trend is still upwards – the dips will be like falling off a cliff and the rallies will be like looking at the north face of the Eiger – but being involved in food and feed production will be an essential, profitable and at times an extremely exciting business.

David Sheppard, managing director, Gleadell Agriculture

UK NOVEMBER LIFFE WHEAT CONTRACT 2000 - 2011

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Gleadell's traders discuss market prospects for feed grain, milling wheat, oilseed rape, pulses, organic sector and oats.

FOCUS ON MALTING BARLEY

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A look at current and future malting barley markets, consumer customers and innovations.

A PARTNERSHIP FOR FARMING SOLUTIONS

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Gleadell's new partnership aims to discuss farming challenges, share relevant resources, swap technical knowledge and seek new opportunities in cropping and technology options for UK agriculture.

VARIETIES FOR AUTUMN 2011

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Newly HGCA-recommended winter oilseed rape and wheat varieties bring yield and agronomic pluses to growers this autumn.

FOCUS ON FERTILISER

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Supply and demand changes, commodity prices, production costs and freight costs continue to direct the market.

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FOCUS ON GLEADELL

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A look at how Gleadell's grain terminal has benefited a leading farming company in the region.

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Gleadell Agriculture Limited

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Continuing developing prompts a move to new and larger offices for Gleadell's southern team.

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Feed Grain

Milling Wheat As amazing as the old crop market has been, it is now just about finished. The international buyers are covered and the pace of exports has slowed down. The demand situation both at home and abroad has been exciting this year, with a whole host of new markets and opportunities. We have forged new business this year to Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey and Italy and we believe that we have now firmly established UK milling wheat in the minds of these very important customers.

The UK market looks to be just about covered, the trade is thin and the old crop market is quiet. Farmers, traders and millers have all been bullish for a long time, so there is not much fresh buying to come into the market.

Despite this, it is also true that we are now coming into the traditional ‘weather market’ period, so prices will remain volatile and, as we write, wheat is at very attractive prices for arable farmers.

We are keen to talk to growers about contracts for the coming planting season.

We have some excellent buybacks available for Group 1, Group 2 and a range of biscuit wheats, so please contact us if you are growing or thinking about growing some of this wheat.

The quality end of the market has been well worthwhile for farmers this year and we see no reason why it will not continue to be interesting. It is certainly true that locking into a contract can guarantee you the outlets and offers you protection in this marketplace.

Fundamentals have returned to the markets as dwindling stocks of quality wheat and US corn reignited buying interest following the most recent commodity ‘sell-off’.

Economic concerns and the Japanese earthquake/ Tsunami disaster caused mass commodity liquidation, driven by fears of lower demand, before normality returned to the markets.

For 2011, the projection is for record global grain production, although, with demand predicted to rise, ending stocks are still projected to fall from this season’s already tight scenario. Global wheat production is forecast to increase to 670-673mln/t, with a recovery in Black Sea production after this year’s drought reduced output. This potential rebound in production should allow governments to review, or even remove current export restrictions, albeit not until crops are known.

EU soft wheat production for 2011 is projected by Coceral, at 131.4mln/t, up 3.5% from 2010, a result of increased area and yield. Market direction will be influenced by any news on exports from the Black Sea in the medium to long term although, with governments unlikely to change policy pre-October, the harvest position looks well supported.

UK area planted to wheat as of December 1st was recently reported at 1.94mln ha. Assuming ‘normal’ post-December plantings and a rise in yield, production should be approximately 15.6 to 15.8mln/t. With domestic demand reduced from previous estimates, the exportable surplus remains less than 2.0mln/t, compared with 2.5 to 2.7mln/t that is expected to be shipped this season.

In summary, the world is projected to produce, and needs, a record crop. Stocks are historically tight and demand is rising. Currently, there are enough weather related problems to encourage the support for prices, and any confirmation of supply issues, especially for US corn or ‘quality’ wheat, will entice further buying interest.

We would like to take this opportunity to wish all of our customers a very productive and happy harvest!

Marc Rogerson, trading manager

Pulses The first thing that comes to mind for 2011 crop figures is that the DEFRA winter planting figures for beans are down 23%. Translate this to possible production, and it looks like we will have a winter crop of around 238,000 tonnes, assuming we return to a normal yield - which looks possible in some areas and unlikely in others.

Spring pulse plantings are expected to show a similar fall, with beans likely to be down by up to 25% and peas down 30%. This will clearly reduce availability for the markets we enjoy at present.

Increased rape production is the main catalyst for this reduction in area and, whilst this is understandable, it must be pointed out that once we relinquish our pulse outlets they are very difficult to recapture. And with the French prepared to stay with pulses, this will hamper UK sales in the future.

Looking at what we can expect from this reduced area, feed usage in the UK is pretty constant, and the human consumption market to the Middle East is also going to remain static at current usage levels, so prices should remain firm.

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Ian Skinn, pulses trader

Oilseed Rape OLD CROP We have seen violent price moves in the oilseeds complex as the markets were caught up in the fear created by the uncertainty surrounding the fallout from the earthquake in Japan.

Following the disaster, markets ceased trading fundamentals and for about a week we suffered price moves that bore no resemblance to our expectations and highlighted the danger of having significant non-agricultural based money involved in our markets. When they press the sell button, they do it in style and traditional traders can’t stand in the way.

At the time of writing, old crop UK ex-farm prices are over £400/tonne and it is our opinion that farmers with old crop rapeseed should now be looking to close out their positions – crush margins in the old crop are on the floor and the time for gambling is over.

NEW CROP Looking forward to new crop, the outlook remains friendly. Unlike the old crop, crush margins are more than healthy for new crop processing and demand for rapeseed continues to grow.

Crop conditions in Europe have been far from ideal with winterkill reported across parts of Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic and we have consequently reduced our production estimates by 500,000 tonnes.

These issues further increase Europe’s dependence on third country imports. Also worries about winterkill in the Ukraine, and the world’s need to have a problem-free growing season, is helping to support prices.

Jonathan Lane, trading manager

David Woodland, trader

Oats The harvests of 2008 and 2009 produced a glut of oats which the free market was unable to absorb in order to give the grower a satisfactory return.

The natural reaction to these low prices was a predictable UK decrease in plantings for harvest 2010 and, combined with world supply problems in Europe, Australia and Canada, the milling oat pricing structure changed dramatically.

Harvest 2011 should see a tight oat market with demand in particular chasing the early harvest supply. Spring sowings in Finland, Sweden and Canada will need to increase to take the pressure off the world market in order to supply the right quality to the millers.

The varieties Gerald and Mascani continue to produce the required quality, with the shorterstrawed Balado suiting certain locations. Growers planning their autumn 2011 sowing campaign could consider linking all or some of their tonnage to a wheat futures contract which also allows the seller to price when market conditions suit.

The millers are obviously keen to support oat production with the continued increase in demand for their products on the shelves. Growers who have recently eased back their acreages may consider a return to this crop with the benefits of a pre-harvest contract.

Robert Leachman, oats trader

Organics COMPOUND FEED RAW MATERIALS Despite consumer reservations on spring and summer orders for finished products, we continue to discuss opportunities to supply home grown products. We expect demand to materialise at some point. However, the volumes required to the end of season remain uncertain.

HUMAN CONSUMPTION COMMODITIES Milling wheat continues to be supported and good premiums are still available for Group 1 and Group 2 varieties. Milling oats are also in good demand, including the varied niche markets. Feed beans are required for forward months (June onwards) as consumers have adequate cover in the short term. Due to the volatility of supply, some consumers switched to peas for continuity when pricing up pre-spring orders.

NEW CROP PROSPECTS There is no doubt that UK production will be supported by all consumers. However, we are told usage throughout the year will be hard to predict - particularly on feed raw materials. Human consumption commodities that make the grade will be easier to market to suit growers’ month of movement. For those who have milling wheat varieties in the ground, it would be advisable to establish quality as soon as possible to allow millers to plan their requirements before deciding on volumes of imports. Hard and soft wheat varieties also have the opportunity of obtaining premiums particularly for the niche markets.

Brian Wilburn, organic trader

MARKET PROSPECTS

FOCUS ON MALTING BARLEY Market Prospects The prediction for growth in world beer markets is still very positive, outside of the mature markets such as the EU. The short term outlook for malting barley is therefore for strong prices, good premiums and positive returns for growers. However, there will be continuing volatility based around harvest yields, quality and supply and demand.

The longer-term trend for all world barley is for the continuation of a reducing area/ supply. The effect this will have on world malting barley supply will be great: whilst there is a feed barley crop, there is always the opportunity of growers planting malting barley. But if growers choose not to grow barley at all, then you lose any opportunity for growing malting barley.

Stuart Shand, sales director

Working with our consumer customers Gleadell is working closely with old and new consumer customers trying to identify new, innovative ways of securing malting barley supply whilst ensuring all parts of the supply chain receive a benefit, in what is a price sensitive market. As well as working with agronomists, breeders, brewers and maltsters to bring new products to the market, we are also managing market, cost and price risk for both growers and consumers. Managed properly, both sides benefit greatly.

Our focus on collaborating with all parts in the supply chain is progressing well and we are pleased to announce that we have recently been awarded a supply contract into Molson Coors. Molson Coors are one of the UK’s leading brewers and are the No.1 brewer/maltster. Molson Coors are at the forefront of the supply chain and are a major supporter of the UK farmer, offering attractive

Null-Lox

for deliveries – and Null-Lox seed prices are the same as for other spring barleys.

So what is Null-Lox spring malting barley?

Null-Lox is a conventional spring barley type developed by Carlsberg and Heineken Research and bred using traditional breeding techniques. Null-Lox varieties have the staling enzyme LOX bred out to produce fresher-tasting beer for longer and with better head retention.

For 2011, we have five new varieties for evaluation – Cheers, Chapeau, Chief, Cheerio and Chiraz – all with yields at least as good as the new conventional UK varieties.

Carlsberg and Heineken are committed to brew all of their branded beer with Null-Lox. Their research is solely focused on beer and malting barley and it has the facilities and the resources to succeed. There are 82 scientists and technicians working on NullLox and other exciting new projects, so this development is just the beginning.

There are extensive variety trials and evaluation in all the main EU malting countries. We have two main UK trial sites in Wiltshire and Lincolnshire with two other evaluation sites in East Anglia and over 165 commercial Null-Lox growers in the UK. Null-Lox seed is grown here in the UK with seed producers strategically placed throughout the country in partnership with three quality seed processors. There are four seed distribution points, well situated

In summary, the benefits of growing Null-Lox are that it is the present and the future of EU malting barley, with exciting new traits and varieties in the pipeline. Null-Lox is endorsed and supported by two of the world’s largest and influential brewers, so can be grown knowing that it has a guaranteed and secure end market, is backed and needed by brewers and maltsters, and is a market not in oversupply.

buybacks ensuring growers have a secure end market and the confidence to plant their crops. To underline this development, we are pleased to announce that we have various competitive one-year buyback contracts available for crop 2012, and of course Molson Coors are active supporters of winter malting barley.

Carlsberg and Heineken are also in the top four brewers in the world as well as in the UK. They are both committed to UK malting barley, and this is highlighted by their growing contracts and their commitment to only using Null-Lox spring barley for their main brands, utilising the benefit that they have developed through their R&D work. But Null-Lox is just the beginning.

Their research teams are working hard at producing new traits which will have agronomic, processing and taste benefits for all parts of the supply chain for many years to come.

UK Null-Lox Survey Results 2010 Null-Lox growers reported an average yield of 5.43 T/ha.

The estimated English spring barley yields according to DEFRA were: Yorkshire & the Humber 5.0 T/Ha East Midlands 5.3 T/Ha West Midlands 4.6 T/Ha Eastern 5.0 T/Ha South East and London 5.4 T/Ha South West 5.2 T/Ha Crop establishment 93% of growers reported that establishment was good • 7% said that it was average • 0% reported poor establishment

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Agronomic and Disease performance 100% of growers reported that there were no performance issues

• GROW NULL-LOX FOR REDUCED COST AND RISK

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Null-Lox can be just a one year contract, no long term tie-in.

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Null-Lox contracts are varied and flexible: Premium over, Min/Max, Fixed, Feed + Premiums.

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Up to 1.92 nitrogen, reducing contract risk.

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Premium over wheat futures, so is transparent and flexible.

Harvest date compared to Tipple/Quench 34% of growers reported that Null-Lox varieties were earlier • 52% of growers were similar • 14% of growers were later

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Crop performance vs. other spring barleys • 38% of growers reported that the crop performed better than other springs • 55% no difference • 7% worse Growing Null-Lox varieties again 69% of growers said yes 24% said maybe 7% said no

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PROVIDING THE BEST FARMING SOLU The issues and challenges that UK farmers face might be expected to be predictable and therefore easy to solve – but that rarely seems to be the case. Weeds, pests and diseases that were once easy to control can develop resistance to agrochemical control, and new problems arise to exploit the space that has been left by successful control of a former pest.

The introduction of new varieties to supply specific end-user processor requirements needs the development of variety specific agronomy advice to reliably deliver grain of the quality the end user demands.

Sometimes the best farming solutions are achieved by partnerships and alliances rather than individual companies operating in isolation. Hutchinsons and Gleadell Agriculture both share the common interest of providing farmers and growers with the best advice for their businesses, and both companies recognise that quality of produce from the farm and the efficiency of production are the prime drivers when supplying food and drinks manufacturers.

To this end, Hutchinsons and Gleadell have agreed, through discussing farming challenges and sharing relevant resources, to provide each other with technical knowledge and seek new opportunities in cropping and technology options for UK agriculture.

Hutchinsons – a national family business Founded in 1938 in Wisbech, Cambridgeshire this private familyowned business has since grown to be one of the largest crop protection distributors and providers of agronomic advice to UK farmers. Although Hutchinsons operates nationally, it has retained its local focus on the specific needs of its customers depending on their objectives and cropping. The Hutchinson family is actively engaged in the management of the business.

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Ripe blackgrass seed heads in wheat

Blackgrass Centre of Excellence Hutchinsons have invested in a national knowledge development programme using their Regional Technology Centres, which focus on both the main arable crops and also some of the niche crops grown in the UK. A major development is the National

Work in the first year is focusing on:

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The impact of cultivation techniques to reduce the soil-borne burden of weed seed.

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Maximising the effectiveness of stale-seedbed techniques for seedling eradication.

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Herbicide stacking and sequencing to investigate grassweed control in wheat and oilseed rape.

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Novel product adjuvant systems to increase herbicide performance on target species.

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Application and sprayer enhancements to deliver more effective herbicide loading on the weed.

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Variety and seed rate interaction for greater weed competition from the crop against weeds.

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Small scale ‘detail’ demonstration plots alongside field-scale practical assessment trials.

Blackgrass Centre of Excellence based at Brampton, Huntingdon. This is a five-year rotational investigation of how to control resistant blackgrass.

The 90 hectare experimental site covers six fields of clay-loam soil – all of which have been sampled for blackgrass resistance within the field population and soil-mapped using GPS technology. This will provide a base-point to compare the impact of cultivation and input strategies on the control levels of blackgrass achieved.

The aim of these activities is to always be delivering practical, working solutions that can then be applied by growers on-farm to overcome their local problems.

A PARTNERSHIP FOR FARMING SOLUTIONS

UTIONS BY PARTNERSHIPS Specialist variety agronomy Other research work has focused around understanding how best to grow Red Wheat (Canadian hard wheat) and Null-Lox spring barley (specialist malting barley with improved processing qualities for superior beer/lager production).

Colin Button, Hutchinsons Seed Manager, has been closely involved with development work to gather the knowledge and deliver blueprints for best agronomy for these crops.

“Our work began in 2009 with Red Wheat and quickly produced excellent information for managing the crop. A key part was crop nutrition management and balancing fungicide and PGR requirements to handle this crop when grown under UK climate conditions. Our agronomists are now using this knowledge with customers to deliver high yields of grain which meet the quality criteria of the end-user (millers and bakers).

“We’re also in our second year of work with Null-Lox spring barley to fine-tune the agronomy package for producing the best quality, high-yielding grain output from these

Null-Lox spring barley, a specialist malting barley with improved processing qualities for superior beer/lager production.

varieties. It is already clear that just adopting what has worked for Tipple or Quench does not equate to the best agronomy for Null-Lox barley.

“The relationship between fertiliser and the other inputs is critical, in order to promote maximum yield without compromising grain nitrogen levels.

Higher nitrogen inputs will also increase leaf canopy and crop vigour, which must be managed very closely with fungicide and growth regulators.

In 2011 we are continuing to investigate the impact that the new generation SDHI fungicides could make to Null-Lox barley production.”

Colin Button examines oilseed rape trials at the Brampton site.

Harvesting Red Wheat.

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FOCUS ON SEED

The consistent favourite Excalibur is likely to be popular again this season with farmers who have got on well with the variety – with consistent results over the past seasons – Excalibur scores a 6 for maturity, so is early to mature.

WINTER OILSEED RAPE

We would recommend drilling two to three varieties to spread maturity dates and your harvest workload.

Sesame secured its position at the top of the HGCA recommended list following on from its candidate year. The conventional variety was in limited supply in autumn 2010 and as such will certainly be of interest this year. With 110% treated gross output in the E&W region, it is 3% higher yielding than its conventional rival DK Cabernet, and some 13% ahead of Castille.

Moving to hybrids, the highest yielding variety on the Recommended List is PR46W21 – a consistent variety with strong stem stiffness and very high oil content. At 109% of treated gross output – the variety is 7% higher yielding than Flash. Compass from DSV has cemented its position on the Recommended List this year in both the E&W and Northern regions – once again with excellent high oil content and short stiff straw. The LSPB hybrid Palace combines solid gross output figures with a 7 score for light leaf spot resistance.

All three of the above varieties score a 5 for earliness of maturity and therefore will be slightly earlier than the conventional varieties mentioned previously.

Three new varieties of note have been added to the HGCA Recommended List for drilling this autumn. There are two new group 3s and a Group 4.

The first new Group 3 is Tuxedo from RAGT, a high yielding soft wheat that meets all end market requirements and suits all farm situations, with excellent disease resistance particularly to Yellow rust and Septoria tritici along with sound grain quality including high hagberg. This variety is available with a buyback contract.

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Gleadell will also have buyback contracts to offer on the full range of quality milling wheats. Gallant seed looks like it will be in tighter supply this year and, as such, will run short. We will have other buybacks on Group 2 varieties, including Cordiale and KWS Sterling.

Chris Guest, seed manager

Key drivers have all influenced the fertiliser market over the last six months: supply and demand changes, commodity prices, production and freight costs will continue to direct the market.

As stated in previous publications, the world fertiliser market is now a truly global affair.

With a rapidly growing demand for food and Urea being the preferred nitrogen

The third variety is KWS Santiago – another addition from breeder KWS – and is the highest yielding variety on the list. An outand-out Group 4 feed wheat, but with barn busting yields (108% of treated control – 2% ahead of Oakley). KWS Santiago has better Yellow rust resistance than its competitor Oakley (scores of 6 against 2). The variety is better suited to heavy land.

WINTER WHEAT

FOCUS ON FERTILISER China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of fertilisers, continue to operate under the restraints of their high/low export tax windows. This system helps to keep their internal fertiliser prices under control but, more importantly, in a huge economy like China this keeps down the costs of food production and, ultimately, inflation. With fertiliser demand growing on average a further 3–4% per annum, when China is not exporting Urea and Phosphates onto the world market, firm commodity prices plus higher fuel and gas prices will mean the rapid changes in prices we keep witnessing will continue to take place.

The second new Group 3 is KWS Target from breeder KWS. This variety is similar in yield to Tuxedo, with good agronomics including Orange Wheat Blossom Midge resistance.

choice of the world’s agricultural sector more Urea production is needed to support this growth.

Major projects in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman are all due to come on stream during 2011 adding a further 4.5 million tonnes to global production. Oman are now the largest producer of quality Granular Urea in the Middle East and a recently signed 25,000 tonnes per month off-take supply contract, initiated by our joint shareholder Toepfer International alongside their Egyptian contacts, guarantee that Gleadell will remain at the forefront

of quality Urea supply into the UK market.

Some traders and speculators have already started to second-guess the forward Urea market as prices have trended downwards a dangerous game with no supply contract.

They would appear to have short memories after the carnage seen in the 2008 global fertiliser market.

Calum Findlay, fertiliser trader

FOCUS ON GLEADELL

GREAT YARMOUTH GRAIN TERMINAL A look at how Gleadell's grain terminal has benefited a leading farming company in the region The first full season of Gleadell’s Great Yarmouth Grain Terminal has been a success with over 150,000 tonnes of wheat, barley, oilseed rape and pulses shipped through the facility to destinations including Ireland, France, Portugal, Spain and Italy to as far afield as Mauritania.

“Just before Christmas, we loaded the largest grain ship ever in Norfolk or Suffolk with 17,000 tonnes of feed wheat bound for Mauritania in north west Africa,” says Trevor Gates, Gleadell’s East Anglia regional manager.

“This shipment underlined the benefit our new facility is bringing for farmers in the region, opening up new end user destinations for their grain” John Barrett is the Business Manager for Sentry Farms in Norfolk with the responsibility for six farms totalling some 4,500 acres.

Sentry is a private company with farming as its core business having farms spread geographically from Scotland to East Anglia and Kent to Dorset covering a wide variety of storage facilities, soil types and yield capabilities.

He comments that: “The new terminal at Great Yarmouth has given us a new destination in a good location. We are just a bit too far away to always economically reach the mills and other outlets in the Midlands. Also our land and soil types are more suited to feed wheat than milling, so the export markets that the Great Yarmouth facility have opened up suit our cropping and marketing needs”.

John has already booked a good proportion of his 2011 wheat forward for movement into Great Yarmouth: “In addition to the geographical advantage, we can move grain there at 16% for harvest movement and with one handling cost.”

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