By Appointment to her Majesty The Queen. Supplier of Quality Seeds Gleadell Agriculture Ltd Lincolnshire
SPRING 2012 VOL 10, ISSUE 1 www.gleadell.co.uk
Relatively high prices - here to stay? Contents It was less than two years ago that Gleadell loaded a 50,000 mt ship on Immingham’s Humber International Terminal berth with wheat bound for The Philippines. What may surprise many is that much of that wheat was bought at around £90 per tonne ex farm.
Relatively minor crops such as oats and linseed have to justify their production vs wheat, barley, oilseeds and - on a worldwide basis - maize and soya. Indeed our recent purchase of Dunns, one of the largest UK pulse processors, indicates clearly that pulse prices will also need to be competitive vs other crops to ensure that this valuable market is maintained. We will do all we can to make sure that this happens.
Since then we have seen wheat prices rocket to £200 per tonne and fall back to around £130. Today’s levels for harvest 2012 have fluctuated between £130 and £150. Of course, currency parities have a large part to play in setting UK prices, and it is certainly true to say that Sterling has weakened vs the Euro and US Dollar in the last two years. It is also true that increased input costs, particularly fertiliser, have impacted on the cost of production during this period.
What can stop this trend from continuing? Of course, we can expect to see volatility - and that may well mean steep price falls and rises as short term supply and demand become unbalanced - and these may be prolonged from time to time.
However, it is also true that markets have reacted positively to the steepening demand curve that all pundits suggest we are now embarked on, which is evident on the graph shown below. Competition for acres across the world’s main producing regions has ensured that forward prices have to be sufficiently high to get the crops planted - and farmers have choices to make that are not just ‘rotation based’, but are also keenly focused on gross margins and profitability.
But, over the medium and long term, if the forecasts for population growth and increasing biofuel demand prove to be correct - and if Europe fails to grasp productivity gains that the rest of the world is adopting - we can surely expect, at the very least, high enough prices to ensure that arable crop production remains profitable as long as risk-managed crop marketing is a key focus for farmers. Gleadell will be here to help you do that by providing a wide range of crop marketing strategies to enable farmers to benefit from opportunities across all crops, as they occur. David Sheppard, managing director, Gleadell Agriculture
MARKET PROSPECTS
02
Gleadell’s traders discuss market prospects for milling wheat, feed grain, malting barley, oilseed rape, pulses, oats and the organic sector.
A NEW PULSE FORCE IS CREATED
04
Dunns and Gleadell join forces to promote pulses in the UK domestic and export markets.
FOCUS ON SEED
06
A review of the latest winter wheat, winter barley and winter oilseed rape varieties.
FOCUS ON FERTILISER
07
As Gleadell continue to develop their fertiliser business, an important partnership is the sole distribution agreement in the UK with SKW Piesteritz GmbH.
ANNUAL DEMAND PER PERSON FOR WHEAT, MAIZE AND SOYA 260
GLEADELL AROUND THE COUNTRY
250 240
Our offices and facilities around the country to service our farmer customers, trade customers and end users.
220 210 200 190 180 170
Gleadell Agriculture Limited
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kg/person
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www.gleadell.co.uk
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