SUPPLY SECURIT Y & DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT
SITTING ON THE HORNS OF A DILEMMA
South Africa’s post-insurrection, water-constrained economy SPVs are being designed to make the water sector investor-friendly
The recent failed insurrection has shown the weakness of government. The South African economy is confronted by a specific dilemma from a water perspective. The two horns of this dilemma are about solving the water shortage problem in the face of a collapsing fiscus. By Anthony Turton
A
dilemma is defined as a conflicting situation in which alternative solutions are equally unappealing or problematic. This is why we refer to sitting on the horns of a dilemma, because if I do this then that will happen, but if I do that then this will happen. A dilemma is technically unsolvable. When government decision-makers have to deal with them, they rapidly become fraught with politics.
Anthony Turton, professor: Centre for Environmental Management, University of the Free State
Our role as technical specialists is to convert that dilemma into a series of sub-problems because a problem is solvable. Stated simply: a dilemma is bad but a problem is good. The South African economy is confronted by a specific dilemma from a water perspective when framed as a post-insurrection issue. The most eloquent way to present that dilemma is to say that the South African economy is fundamentally water constrained while the fiscal cliff is becoming an increasing reality. The two horns of this dilemma are about solving the water shortage problem in the face of a collapsing fiscus. To get the economy going to the point where it can employ the growing number of angry unemployed people, we need water (and energy), but to do that we need capital that is not forthcoming in an economy that is collapsing and investor-unfriendly. With this as a clear focal point, we can now begin to unpack the two elements of the dilemma – a water-constrained economy (one horn of the dilemma) under threat from the fiscal cliff (the other horn). First horn of dilemma: waterconstrained economy Billion cubic meters per annum (BCM) is a measurement that we will use to
define the reality of South Africa’s water supply. Here are three important numbers: • 48 BCM – the annual average flow of all the water in all the rivers across the entire country • 38 BCM – total volume of water available in all our dams • 63 BCM – the volume of water needed to create full employment by 2035. The annual average flow of all the water in all the rivers across the entire country is technically known as mean annual run-off (MAR). It used to be around 52 BCM two decades ago, but the improvement in mathematical algorithms, combined with the effects of global warming, has now forced a systematic revision down to about 48 BCM. It is unknown if this downward trend will continue as global warming accelerates, or whether it is part of a natural, long-term cycle that might again reverse. The total volume of water available in all our dams represents the strategic
S E P / O CT 2021
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