McVEAN Trading & Investments, LLC
GLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE CENTER
Stockholm, Sweden September 29, 2011
WORLD SHARES OF GDP 2010
40%
30%
20%
10%
EU
US
CHINA, BRAZIL, CANADA, RUSSIA, AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA
JAPAN, S.KOREA, TAIWAN
0%
Source: World Bank Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
1
China’s Share of World Commodity Consumption Commodity
China % of World
Cement
53.2%
Iron Ore
47.7%
Coal
46.9%
Pigs
46.4%
Steel
45.4%
Lead
44.6%
Zinc
41.3%
Aluminum
40.6%
Copper
38.9%
Eggs
37.2%
Nickel
36.3%
Rice
28.1%
Soybeans
24.6%
Wheat
16.6%
Chickens
15.6%
PPP GDP
13.6%
Oil
10.3%
Cattle
9.5%
GDP
9.4%
Source: Barclays 2010
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
2
GDP LEVELS FOR CHINA AND US Trillions of US Dollars
25.00
??? 20.00
102.1%
Lehman
Now
15.00
2001 Recession
SARS
Asian Crisis
10.00 50% yuan devaluation
46.7% 32.4%
5.00
5.8%
11.1%
12.3%
14.8%
0.00 1994
1997
2001
2003 China
2008
2011
2016
US
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
3
WTI vs Brent Crude Oil 150
130
110
90
70
50
30 Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09 WTI
Feb-10
Brent
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Feb-11
Sep-11 4
Gasoline
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Gasoline Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Sep-11 5
Corn
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100 Jan-89
Jan-93
Jan-97
Jan-01
Jan-05
Jan-09
Sep-11 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
6
COPPER 11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000 Jan-89
Jan-93
Jan-97
Jan-01
Jan-05
Jan-09
Aug-10 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
7
Cotton 210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
30 Jan-89
Jan-93
Jan-97
Jan-01
Jan-05
Jan-09
Sep-11 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
8
CONSUMER SERVICES VS GDP NOMINAL DOLLARS – 4 QTR % CH 15%
10%
5%
0%
-5% Jan-80
Jan-83
Jan-86
Jan-89
Jan-92
Jan-95
PCE-SERVICES
Jan-98
Jan-01
GDP
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-10
Q2 2011 9
MANUFACTURING AND NON-MANUFACTURING ISM INDEXES 0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30 Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
MANUFACTURING ISM
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
NON-MANUFACTURING ISM
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
July 2011 10
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
CORE CPI MEASURES
3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM 3 MONTHS AGO SAAR
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0% Jan-91 Feb-92 Mar-93 Apr-94 May-95 Jun-96
Jul-97 Aug-98 Sep-99 Oct-00 Nov-01 Dec-02 Jan-04 Feb-05 Mar-06 Apr-07 May-08 Jun-09
CORE SERVICES CPI
CORE CPI COMMODITIES
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jul-10
Jun 2011 11
NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS EX AIRCRAFT THREE MONTH AVERAGE
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30% Jan-92
Jan-95
Jan-98
Jan-01
IMPORTS / CONSUMPTION
Jan-04 EXPORTS / PRODUCTION
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-07
Jan-10
May 2011 12
CPI MEASURES
3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM 3 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0% Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
CORE SERVICES CPI
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
HOMEOWNERS' EQUIVALENT RENT
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-09
Jan-11
June 2011 13
HOUSING STARTS 3 MONTH AVERAGE IN MILLIONS OF UNITS 0.600
2.0
0.500 1.6
0.400 1.2
0.300
0.8
0.200
0.4
0.100
0.0 Jan-87
0.000 Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
SINGLE FAMILY
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
MULTI FAMILY
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
July 2011 14
APPRECIATION ON NEW & APPRECIATION HOMES 3 MONTH AVERAGE %CH FROM 3 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO
12.0%
8.0%
4.0%
0.0%
-4.0%
-8.0%
-12.0%
-16.0% Jan-85
Jan-87
Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
CHANGE IN WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF AVERAGE PRICES OF NEW & EXISTING HOMES
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
June 2011 15
US 10 YR NOTE YIELD VS FED FUNDS TARGET RATE 7
7
6.5 6 6 5
5.5
5 4 4.5 3 4
3.5
2
3 1 2.5
2 Jan-00
0 Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05 US 10YR YIELD
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
FED FUNDS
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Aug-11 16
CHINESE GDP GROWTH QTR / QTR YR AGO
12.0
15.0
10.0
8.0
12.5
6.0
4.0
10.0
2.0
0.0
7.5
-2.0
5.0 Mar-02
-4.0 Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
REAL GDP
Mar-07
Mar-08
GDP DEFLATOR
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Q2 2011 17
US CORN ENDING STOCKS 5,000 4,500 4,000
3,500
MIL BU
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Source: McVean Trading Calculation
PIPELINE
USDA ESTIMATE
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
18
COPPER 11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000 Jan-89
Jan-93
Jan-97
Jan-01
Jan-05
Jan-09
Aug-10 19 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
BRENT CRUDE OIL 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 Jan-89
Jan-93
Jan-97
Jan-01
Jan-05
Jan-09
Sep-11 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
20