Bianco Research L.L.C.
An Arbor Research & Trading Affiliated Company Independent · Objective · Original
———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
The Yen Carry Trade Howard L. Simons Global Interdependence Centre June 11, 2007
Long-Term Interest Rates - 1900 to 2004
Topics ToIntr Be Covered
• Short-term (3-month LIBOR) carry trade and its components: – Interest rate spread – Spot rate changes – Total carry
• The importance of the yen carry trade to: – Emerging markets – G-10 markets
• Reading Bank of Japan policies • The Bank of Japan’s task ahead
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
2
Universe Examined •
A total of 29 different currencies have three-month LIBOR histories over the post-January 1999 timeframe
ISO Code ARS AUD BRL CAD CHF CLP COP CZK DKK EUR
Country Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Switzerland Chile Colombia Czech Rep. Denmark Eurozone
ISO Code GBP HKD IDR INR JPY KRW MXN NOK NZD PEN
Country United Kingdom Hong Kong Indonesia India Japan Korea Mexico Norway New Zealand Peru
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
ISO Code PHP PLN SEK SGD THB TRY TWD USD ZAR
Country Philippines Poland Sweden Singapore Thailand Turkey Taiwan United States South Africa
3
Constructing The Carry •
•
Spread returns for each individual currency are based on borrowing at the three-month LIBOR rate of the lower-yielding currency (LY3) and lending at the three-month LIBOR rate of the higher-yielding currency (HY3) The net carry return is the difference between the long return (top) and the short return (bottom)
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
4
Short-Term Interest Rates And Their Variance •
Even when presented on a semilogarithmic scale, short-term JPY rates are an outlier –
• •
CHF LIBOR has averaged 12.29 times JPY LIBOR since the January 1999 introduction of the EUR
Two currencies, the TRY and ARS stand out on the opposite end for having unusually high short-term rates Several G-10 countries with high-yielding currencies (NZD, AUD and GBP) have unexpectedly low σ. The opposite is true for several Asian currencies (TWD and KRW) –
One possibility here is the G-10 central banks have adopted greater transparency and hence provide fewer surprises to the markets
Three-Month Interest Rate Returns On Selected Currencies January 1999 Onwards
Standard Deviation IR Return (Right Scale)
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
JPY
CHF
SGD
EUR
TWD
SEK
HKD
DKK
CZK
USD
THB
CAD
NOK
KRW
GBP
CLP
AUD
NZD
INR
PEN
PLN
0.000%
ZAR
0.000%
PHP
0.001%
COP
0.001%
IDR
0.010%
MXN
0.010%
BRL
0.100%
TRY
0.100%
Standard Deviation Of Daily Return (Blue Line)
1.000% Average IR Return (Left Scale)
ARS
Average Daily Return (Roseate Columns)
1.000%
5
Correlation Matrix Of IR Spread Returns • •
While we might feel safe in concluding IR spreads are correlated positively (blue font, green cells) While generally true for 25 of the 29 currencies examined, it is not true for the BRL, ARS, AUD and NZD. These exhibit large swaths of negative correlation (red font, yellow cells) – All four of these currencies have had to maintain high and contracyclical interest rates
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
6
Yen Carry Risk And Return •
Let’s look at the total return of borrowing in the JPY and lending elsewhere – –
•
The TRY and ARS still stand out as having the highest total returns The AUD and ZAR, two currencies with heavy commodity linkage, have exceptional σ in their returns
Several currencies switched rank – –
The PLN moved higher The COP moved lower
Risk And Return In Three-Month Carry Against JPY Since January 1999
Standard Deviation JPY Carry Return (Right Scale)
Average JPY Carry Return (Left Scale)
1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%
Standard Deviation of Daily Returns (Blue Line)
1.5%
Average Daily Return Vs. JPY (Roseate Columns)
0.10%
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
CHF
TWD
HKD
SGD
CLP
USD
EUR
DKK
THB
SEK
GBP
COP
CAD
ZAR
NOK
PHP
INR
PEN
KRW
BRL
CZK
NZD
AUD
IDR
MXN
PLN
TRY
0.01%
ARS
0.6% 0.5%
7
Decomposing The Yen Carry Trade • • • •
We can break the total return (blue line) into interest rate spread (green column) and spot rate (red column) components The TRY and ARS both had interest rate gains high enough to offset spot rate losses The BRL’s rate gains were insufficient to prevent it from sliding lower in rank The PLN’s spot rate component was positive, accounting for the aforementioned shift higher. The COP’s was a robber, though
40%
35%
Rate
30%
Total
35%
Spot
30%
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
CHF
TWD
HKD
SGD
CLP
USD
EUR
DKK
THB
SEK
GBP
COP
CAD
ZAR
NOK
PHP
INR
PEN
CZK
KRW
AUD
BRL
NZD
-20%
IDR
-15%
-20%
MXN
-15% PLN
-10%
TRY
-10%
ARS
Decomposition of Average Annual Return On Yen Carry Trade
40%
Average Annual Total Return On Yen Carry Trade
Analyzing The Yen Carry Trade Since January 1999
8
The Yen Carry Trade And Equity Markets •
•
If we map average annual stock market returns in USD terms against the average annual total return on the yen carry trade, we find a strong positive relationship (β=1.54) between equities and the yen carry once Turkey & Argentina are excluded If the total return on the yen carry trade is dependent more on interest rate spreads than on spot rate returns, we would have to conclude capital inflows outweigh the negative effects of higher interest rates Positive Correlation Between Yen Carry And Equities
Average Annual Equity Market Return, USD
30.0% 27.5% 25.0% 22.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0%
Turkey
12.5% 10.0% 7.5% Argentina
5.0%
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
2.5%
Average Annual Return On Yen Carry Trade
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
9
Decomposing Equity Market Relationship
30% 28% 25% 23% 20% 18% Turkey
15% 13% 10% 8%
Argentina
5% 3%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
Average Annual Return On Interest Rate Spread Component Of Yen Carry Trade
No Correlation Between Spot Component of Yen Carry And Equities 30%
25%
20%
15%
Turkey
10% Argentina
5%
Average Annual Return On Spot Rate Component Of Yen Carry Trade
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
10
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%
-2.5%
-5.0%
-7.5%
-10.0%
-12.5%
-15.0%
-17.5%
0% -20.0%
•
Positive Correlation Between Rate Component of Yen Carry And Equities
Average Annual Equity Market Return, USD
•
If we exclude Turkey & Argentina from the analysis, we can see the strong positive relationship (β=1.08) between the interest rate spread component of the carry trade and equity returns (top chart) The relationship between the spot rate component and equity returns (bottom chart) is nearrandom (β= -.085) Restated, equity markets in high-interest rate spreads benefit directly from the capital inflows engendered by the carry trade. An increase in JPY LIBOR or a narrowing of the spread poses a threat to these markets
Average Annual Equity Market Return, USD
•
Emerging Market Equity Impact • • •
The Bank of Japan’s two moves to raise rates in 2006 and 2007 (green lines) had an immediate and visible impact on emerging market equities The BOJ moved to restore funds in its current account balance in June 2006 and assured the world no further rate increases would be coming in short order in 2007 Is there a “BOJ put” in global markets if their moves to raise rates become disruptive? And, if so, is this really a bad thing?
Short-Term Yen Rates Matter 950 900
Three-Month JPY (Left Scale)
850 800
MSCI Emerging Markets (Right Scale)
750 700
0.10% 650 600 550 500
MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index (Blue Line)
Three-Month JPY LIBOR (Thin Red Line)
1.00%
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
Apr-07
Feb-07
Dec-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Jul-06
Mar-06
May-06
Jan-06
Nov-05
Sep-05
Jul-05
Mar-05
May-05
Jan-05
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
0.01%
Apr-04
450 400
11
The Yen’s Post-Yuan Peg Divergence • •
The JPY/EUR cross-rate began to diverge after the Bank of Japan ended quantitative easing in May 2006 While Europeans have been noisy regarding the JPY/EUR, the JPY/CNY cross is far more important to Japan’s global position – In a mercantilist culture within a mercantilist region, the concept of competitive devaluation is accepted – Just as in French, there is no word for laissez faire Comparative Currency Strength After Yuan Peg Loosened 107.5%
110%
Euro Index (Right Scale)
106.5%
108%
106.0%
106%
105.5%
104%
105.0% 102% 104.5%
Yen Index (Right Scale)
100%
104.0%
98%
103.5%
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
Mar-07 Apr-07
Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07
Dec-06
Oct-06 Nov-06
Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06
Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06
92%
Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06
102.0%
Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06
94%
Nov-05
102.5% Dec-05 Jan-06
96%
Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05
103.0%
Yen andEuro, July 20, 2005 = 100% (Thick Blue And Hatched GreenLines)
Yuan Index (Left Scale)
Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05
Chinese Yuan, July 20, 2005 = 100% (Thin Red Line)
107.0%
112%
12
The Yen Carry And Long-Term Treasury Rates: Long View •
The yen carry, as measured by the forward rate ratio between JPY LIBOR and ten-year UST, reached its apex equilibrium in late 1995 – Ten-year UST rates continued their secular decline – Modest flattenings (arrows) in mid-1998 and late 2000 preceded global equity market downturns, but had no negative impact on ten-year rates
•
The multi-generational low in ten-year UST (green line) occurred three years before the carry started to decline Did The Carry Trade Matter In The Long-Term?
U.S. Ten-Year Notes (Thin Red Line)
9.00%
1.0275 USD 10-Year Notes (Left Scale)
8.50%
1.0250 1.0225
8.00%
1.0200
7.50%
1.0175
7.00%
1.0150
6.50% 1.0125
6.00%
1.0100
5.50%
1.0075
5.00%
1.0050
4.50%
1.0025
4.00%
3.00%
JPY 3-Mo - USD 10-Yr FRR (Right Scale)
Nov-89 May-90 Nov-90 May-91 Nov-91 May-92 Oct-92 Apr-93 Oct-93 Apr-94 Oct-94 Apr-95 Oct-95 Apr-96 Oct-96 Apr-97 Oct-97 Apr-98 Oct-98 Apr-99 Oct-99 Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07
3.50%
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
JPY 3-Mo - USD 10-Yr FRR (Thick Blue Line)
9.50%
1.0000 0.9975
13
The Yen Carry And Long-Term Treasury Rates: Short View •
If we confine our view to the period after the CNY began to revalue, we see a complete lack of connection between the yen carry and ten-year UST yields – Prior to May 2006, UST rates rose in a wide carry – Between May 2006 and February 2007, UST rates fell and rose parallel to a flattening and widening yen carry – After February 2007, UST rates rose and that kept the carry positive Rising U.S. Note Yields Keeping Yen Carry Positive 1.02600 1.02575 U.S. Ten-Year Notes (Thin Red Line)
5.125%
1.02550 JPY 3-Mo - USD 10-Yr FRR (Right Scale)
5.000%
1.02525 1.02500 1.02475
4.875%
1.02450 4.750%
1.02425 1.02400
4.625%
1.02375 1.02350
4.500%
1.02325 4.375%
1.02300 1.02275
4.250%
1.02250
USD 10-Year Notes (Left Scale)
4.125%
1.02225
JPY 3-Mo - USD 10-Yr FRR (Thick Blue Line)
5.250%
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
Mar-07
Jan-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
Nov-06
Dec-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Jun-06
Apr-06
May-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Sep-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
1.02200 4.000%
1.02175
14
Forward Yen Demand
Yen volatility has tracked the yen itself closely since the May 2006 withdrawal of liquidity by the Bank of Japan
20%
18% 1.0255 JPY 3-Mo - USD 10-Yr FRR (Left Scale)
1.0250
16%
1.0245 14%
1.0240
Quantitative Easing Ended
1.0235
12%
1.0230 10%
1.0225 1.0220
8% 1.0215
Yen Volatility (Right Scale)
1.0210
6%
Little Fear Of Yen Appreciation 108
10.75%
Yen Volatility (Right Scale)
110
10.25% 9.75%
112 9.25% 114
8.75%
116
8.25% 7.75%
118
Yen (Left Scale)
120
7.25% 6.75% 6.25%
Jul-05 Aug-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Mar-07 Apr-07
122
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
15
Three-Month JPY Volatility (Thick Blue Line)
1.0260
JPY-USD 3-Month Volatility (Thick Blue Line)
•
1.0265
Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07
– The drop in the yen carry to ten-year UST after May 2006 had no significant effect on yen volatility (top chart) – If there was a panic to unwind the yen carry trade and sell long-term UST in the process, it was invisible in the data
Reduced Carry Leads To Reduced Demand For Yen
FRR, 3-Mo. JPY to 10-Yr. USD (Thin Red Line)
Yen borrowed in a carry trade have to be repaid
JPY Per USD, Inverse Scale (Thin Red Line)
•
Forward Yen Demand: The Longer-Term View • •
Over a longer period of time, the volatility on three-month JPY forwards has led changes in the yen by 23 weeks on average As the yen carry trade was years in the making, we should expect to see a long-term rise in this volatility lead any immediate change in the yen
Price Of Insuring Against JPY Appreciation 20% Quantitative Easing Ended
Three-Month JPY Volatility (Right Scale)
105
19% 18% 17%
110
16% 15%
115
14% JPY Per USD Led 23 Weeks (Left Scale)
120
13% 12% 11%
125
10% 9%
130
8%
Three-Month JPY Volatility (Thick Blue Line)
JPY Per USD (Thin Red Line, Inverse Scale)
100
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
Dec-06 Mar-07
Sep-06
Mar-06 Jun-06
Jul-05
Sep-05 Dec-05
Dec-04 Apr-05
Jul-04 Oct-04
Apr-04
Jan-04
Oct-02
Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03
Jul-01
Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02
Apr-01
Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99
7% 135
6%
16
The BOJ’s Situation •
The world became addicted to cheap yen – When low rates failed to stimulate the Japanese economy, quantitative easing (green lines) was employed
•
The first yen carry shock in May 2006 was far more a response to reduced quantity of yen (red columns) than higher price (blue line) – The BOJ restored ¥10 trillion in June 2006; this ended the first shock
•
The second yen carry shock was solely a price affair and ended as soon as the BOJ signaled a lack of hostile intent Price And Quantity Of Yen
32.5
27.5
22.5 0.10% 17.5
12.5
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
Mar-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Jan-06
Mar-06
Jul-05
Oct-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Apr-04
Oct-03
Jan-04
JPY LIBOR (Right Scale) Aug-03
May-03
Nov-02
Feb-03
Aug-02
May-02
Nov-01
Aug-01
Mar-01
May-01
Dec-00
Jun-00
Sep-00
Mar-00
2.5
Current Account (Left Scale)
Oct-04
7.5
Three-Month JPY LIBOR (Blue Line)
1.00%
Feb-02
BOJ Current Account Balance, ¥ Trillion (Roseate Columns)
37.5
0.01%
17
Conclusions • •
The yen carry trade is very real A wide range of global equity market returns have a strong positive beta to the interest rate spread between local currencies and the JPY – Capital inflows outweigh high local interest rates – This is prima facie evidence of yen-dependence
• •
Surprisingly, the carry to long-term UST is unimportant in the course of U.S. interest rates Two different attempts by the Bank of Japan to reduce its impact have contributed to global financial shocks – Both shocks were ended quickly by the BOJ itself, giving rise to the moral hazard of a “BOJ put” in world markets
•
•
The ease with which both shocks ended is consistent with a negativesum game reaction by markets to a perceived danger. It is neither the level of the yen carry nor the quantity of yen provided that are important, but rather a sense no one else has an incentive to panic The BOJ needs, therefore, to engage in a policy of “deposit insurance,” a public signal it will not engage in injurious policies. Then a restoration of normal interest rates in Japan can proceed
Bianco Research, L.L.C June 11, 2007
18
Bianco Research L.L.C.
Arbor Research & Trading, Inc.
Clybourn Galleria 1731 N. Marcey Street Suite 510 Chicago IL 60614
1000 Hart Road, Suite 260 Barrington IL 60010
Phone: (847) 304-1511 Fax: (847) 304-1749 e-mail: research@biancoresearch.com http://www.biancoresearch.com
For more information about the contents/ opinions contained in these reports: President (847) 756-3599 James A. Bianco jbianco@biancoresearch.com Strategist/Analysts (847) 304-1511 Howard L. Simons hsimons@biancoresearch.com Greg Blaha gblaha@biancoresearch.com Ryan Spokas rspokas@biancoresearch.com
For subscription/service Information: Arbor Research & Trading, Inc. Director of Sales & Marketing (800) 625-1860 Fritz Handler fritz.handler@arborresearch.com Norma Mytys norma.mytys@arborresearch.com
Phone: (847) 304-1560 Fax: (847) 304-1595 e-mail: inforequest@arborresearch.com http://www.arborresearch.com
Domestic - For more information about Arbor Research & Trading and its services:
Chicago Sales Office 1 N. LaSalle Street, 40th Floor Chicago IL 60602 Daniel Lustig dan.lustig@arborresearch.com Phone (866) 877-0266
New York Sales Office The Chrysler Building 405 Lexington Ave New York, NY 10174 Edward T. McElwreath ed.mcelwreath@arborresearch.com Phone (212) 867-5326 Fax (212) 370-1218
International - For more information about Arbor Research & Trading and its services: Director of International Sales (847) 304-1560 James L. Perry james.perry@arborresearch.com Brent Glendinning brent.glendinning@arborresearch.com
Arbor Research & Trading (UK) LTD 4 Broadgate, 2nd Floor – Room 57 London England EC2M 2QY Phone 44-207-965-4784 Fax 44-207-965-4787 Neil Tritton neil.tritton@arborresearch.com Ben Gibson ben.gibson@arborresearch.com
Copyright  2007 Bianco Research, L.L.C. This message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the designated recipients named above. If you are not the intended recipient of this message you are hereby notified that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. This communication is for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial product, an official confirmation of any transaction, or as an official statement of Bianco Research LLC. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. Therefore, we do not represent that this information is complete or accurate and it should not be relied upon as such. All information is subject to change without notice.