Investment Themes
WisdomTree.com
866.909.9473
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Q4 2017
Selected G7 10-Year Yields
3.5% 3.0% 2.5%
Yield (%)
2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 12/31/2012
12/31/2013 U.S. 10-Year
12/31/2014 German 10-Year
12/31/2015 Japan 10-Year
12/31/2016
12/31/2017
United Kingdom 10-Year
Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Bond markets chosen represent most popular markets.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
2
U.S. Treasury Note 10-Year Yield vs 2-Year Yield Spread History
400
Spread (Basis Points)
300 200 100 52 0 -100 -200 -300 1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
US Recessions
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Yield Spread
Source: Bloomberg, National Bureau of Economic Research from 12/31/1977 - 12/31/2017. Gray bars represent U.S. recessions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
3
“U.S. Equities are Expensive”: P/E Ratios Rising Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio Valuation of the S&P 500 Index (September 30, 1977 to December 31, 2017) 30.00x
Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio
25.00x
22.34x 20.00x
19.50x 17.14x 16.59x
15.00x
10.00x
8.49x
Sep-17
Sep-16
Sep-15
Sep-14
Sep-13
Sep-12
Sep-11
Sep-10
Sep-09
Sep-08
Sep-07
Sep-06
Sep-05
Sep-04
Sep-03
Sep-02
Sep-01
Sep-00
Sep-99
Sep-98
Sep-97
Sep-96
Sep-95
Sep-94
Sep-93
Sep-92
Sep-91
Sep-90
Sep-89
Sep-88
Sep-87
Sep-86
Sep-85
Sep-84
Sep-83
Sep-82
Sep-81
Sep-80
Sep-79
Sep-78
Sep-77
5.00x
S&P 500 Index Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio Full Period Average Average when U.S. Federal Funds Rate was above 10% Average when U.S. Federal Funds Interest Rate was between 5% & 10% Average when U.S. Federal Funds Interest Rate was below 5% Sources: WisdomTree, Bloomberg as of 12/31/2017. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
4
U.S. Equities Less Expensive With Respect to U.S. Fixed Income Equity Risk Premium of S&P 500 Index relative to U.S. 10-Year Note interest rate (September 30, 1977 to December 31, 2017)
8.00% 6.00%
Equity Risk Premium
4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00%
-4.00%
Oct-17
Sep-16
Aug-15
Jul-14
Jun-13
May-12
Apr-11
Mar-10
Feb-09
Jan-08
Dec-06
Nov-05
Sep-03
Oct-04
Aug-02
Jul-01
Jun-00
May-99
Apr-98
Mar-97
Feb-96
Jan-95
Dec-93
Nov-92
Oct-91
Sep-90
Aug-89
Jul-88
Jun-87
May-86
Apr-85
Mar-84
Feb-83
Jan-82
Dec-80
Nov-79
Oct-78
Sep-77
-6.00%
Equity Risk Premium (S&P 500 Index Earnings Yield minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Interest Rate) Average Dec. 29, 2017 Sources: WisdomTree, Bloomberg as of 12/31/2017. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
5
Trailing vs Estimated P/E Ratios: Tax Impact and Earnings Growth
% Domestic Taxes
Effective Tax Rate
Trailing 12M Price to Earnings
Forward 12M Price to Earnings
Estimated Earnings Growth
S&P 500
69.3%
28.0%
23.0
17.4
32.0%
S&P 400
74.9%
31.1%
22.3
18.0
23.9%
S&P 600
80.4%
32.2%
27.2
19.4
40.2%
Russell 1000
69.5%
28.3%
23.4
17.7
31.9%
Russell 2000
77.7%
30.4%
41.3
25.0
65.4%
Russell 3000
68.1%
28.8%
24.2
18.1
33.4%
% Domestic Taxes
Effective Tax Rate
Trailing 12M Price to Earnings
Forward 12M Price to Earnings
Estimated Earnings Growth
WT U.S. Earnings
75.1%
28.6%
18.6
15.3
21.8%
WT U.S. Earnings 500
74.1%
28.1%
19.3
15.3
25.9%
WT U.S. MidCap Earnings
79.7%
32.1%
14.5
15.4
-6.4%
WT U.S. SmallCap Earnings
82.3%
33.1%
16.3
13.6
20.1%
Market Cap Indexes
Earnings Indexes
Source: WisdomTree calculations using FactSet fundamentals. Effective tax rate: calculated as sum of income tax expense divided by sum of operating earnings. Estimated Earnings Growth: Analyst estimates for earnings growth for the next 12 months. % Domestic Taxes and Effective Tax Rate as of 12/31/17. Price to Earnings and estimated earnings growth data as of 2/28/2018. cannot invest directly in an index.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
6
How Dividends Have Helped Determine Long-Term Returns
Total Return = Average Dividend Yield + Price Change Price Change = Dividend Growth + Return From Valuation Changes
A link between dividend growth and total return: the starting dividend yield…the ending dividend yield (valuations matter)
Two Key Drivers of Dividend Growth: • ROE: How Profitably One Has Reinvested in the Firm
• Earnings Retention: How Much of Earnings One Reinvests • Sustained Dividend Growth = ROE x Earnings Retention
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
7
Dividend Growth and Total Return Data for S&P 500
25%
Avg. Ann. Dividend Growth & Avg. Ann. Return
21.8% 20% 15.8% 15% 11.4% 9.4%
10% 7.1%
10.7% 8.5%
7.5% 5.8%
5.9%
7.2% 5.7%
5%
0%
Dividend Growth 1-Year
Total Return 3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
20-Year
12/31/1957*
Source: Bloomberg, CRSP, Professor Robert Shiller, as of 12/31/2017. *12/31/1957: Represents the point in time after which live performance data was available for the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
8
Decomposition of S&P 500 Shareholder Yield 8.0% 6.0% 4.0%
3.59% 1.82% 1.76%
Yield
2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 1997
1999
2001
2003
Dividend Yield
2005
2007
2009
Net Buyback Yield
2011
2013
2015
2017
Shareholder Yield
Source: WisdomTree, FactSet as of 12/31/2017. Shareholder Yield is Dividend Yield + Net Buyback Yield. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
9
WisdomTree’s U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Strategy
+ Quality Screen • Strong ROE is a common attribute of companies which tend to raise their dividends
• Adding ROA helps screen out companies which have inflated their ROE figures with excess leverage
+ Growth Screen • Long Term Growth Estimates seek to forecast the direction in market earnings
+ Dividend Coverage Ratio • Aims to seek out companies earning enough to meet their dividend payment schedule
Start with Dividend Paying Stocks United States: WisdomTree U.S. Dividend Index
- Earnings Yield > Dividend Yield
Rank Based Upon: Long Term Earnings Growth Estimates
3 Yr Avg. Return on Equity 3 Yr Avg. Return on Assets
Select Top 300 from Parent Dividend Index
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
10
Higher Quality Measures Are Less Expensive Than the S&P 500 WT U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Index 20.84 10.73% 4.80% 44.98% 21.17% 4.92% 11.65% 2.16% 2.04% 4.20%
Price/Earnings Earnings Growth Expectations Earnings Yield Dividend Yield/Earnings Yield Return on Equity Return on Assets ROE x Earnings Retention Dividend Yield Net Buyback Yield Shareholder Yield*
S&P 500 Index 23.28 11.77% 4.30% 42.48% 13.75% 3.11% 7.91% 1.82% 1.76% 3.59%
WT Over/Under-Weight to S&P 500 8.04%
Industrials Consumer Staples Health Care Energy Materials Consumer Discretionary Telecommunication Services Real Estate Utilities Information Technology Financials
-10.00%
3.72% 3.05% 0.69% 0.21% 0.04% -2.06% -2.23% -2.51%
-3.83% -5.11% -8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg as of 12/29/17. Chart shows the WisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Index against S&P 500 Index. Subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Characteristics selected in order to demonstrate important characteristics of “Quality� as a factor as well as screening metrics such as ROE and ROA. Growth expectations represent consensus analyst estimates for the next 12 months; performance not guaranteed. *Shareholder Yield: A data point that references the combination of dividend yield and buyback yield. You cannot invest directly in an index. Index performance does not represent actual fund or portfolio performance. A fund or portfolio may differ significantly from the securities included in the index. Index performance assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or other expenses that would be incurred by a portfolio or fund, or brokerage commissions on transactions in fund shares. Such fees, expenses and commissions could reduce returns.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
11
Quality Discount in U.S. an Outlier: Attractive at Current Prices
Estimated Index Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratios
Index Shareholder Yield (Dividend + Net Buyback Ratio)
WisdomTree Quality Dividend Growth Index
WisdomTree High Dividend Index
Quality P/E Ratio Premium (%)
WisdomTree Quality Dividend Growth Index
United States
18.23x
17.52x
4.01%
4.20%
4.15%
-0.05%
Developed International
18.90x
13.67x
38.23%
2.58%
4.59%
2.00%
Emerging Markets
15.89x
9.18x
73.09%
2.36%
4.52%
2.16%
Regional Exposure
High Dividend WisdomTree High Shareholder Yield Dividend Index Premium
Sources: WisdomTree, data as of 12/31/17. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an Index. Table shows the WisdomTree Quality Dividend Growth Index and WisdomTree High Dividend Indexes corresponding to the listed regions. You cannot invest directly in an index. Index performance does not represent actual fund or portfolio performance. A fund or portfolio may differ significantly from the securities included in the index. Index performance assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or other expenses that would be incurred by a portfolio or fund, or brokerage commissions on transactions in fund shares. Such fees, expenses and commissions could reduce returns.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
12
Rising Correlations Signaling Caution Pick Up in Average Correlations 12/31/2007 - 2/08/2018 Signal Hedging Out on Jan 31st 2018, Before Correlations Spiked & Markets Corrected
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Avg. Correlations Spike as of Feb 8th 2018: 0.25
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
WisdomTree Proprietary Hedging Signal
Avg. Correlations in S&P 500
Summary Table: Average S&P 500 Returns Months Where Hedging indicator Was ON
All Other Months
-1.06%
1.09%
Sources: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. Period covered 12/31/07 to 2/8/18. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
13
King Dollar Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index 1300 1280 1260 Index Level
1240 1220 1200 1180
1160 1140 1120 1100 Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
“The Trump Administration and the Republicans in Congress have passed one of the best pro-growth tax bills ever. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act ranks in the all-time hall of fame of legislation, along with Ronald Reagan's 1981 and 1986 Tax Acts and John F. Kennedy's posthumous tax cuts of 1964….. When this is combined with President Donald Trump's deregulation agenda, we see no reason why the economy cannot grow for a sustained period at 3 to 4 percent growth — up from 1.6 percent in Obama's last year. But there is still a missing pillar of prosperity in the Trump economic agenda, and that is a sound dollar strategy. The dollar weakened in 2017 and we want it stabilized.” Sources: WisdomTree, Bloomberg, from 3/14/16 to 3/13/18. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
14
International Markets Look Compelling. Current and Historical Earnings and Bond Yields: Significant Spread Advantages in Europe and Japan Country
Historical Median (1/31/1998 - 12/31/2017) Earnings 10-Yr Spread 1 Govt. Bond Yield Yield
Current (12/31/2017) Earnings 1
10-Yr Govt. Bond Yield
Spread
2.02%
5.50%
Italy
7.07%
4.33%
2.74%
Yield 7.51%
Germany
7.24%
3.52%
3.72%
7.29%
0.42%
6.86%
Spain
6.99%
4.23%
2.76%
7.58%
1.57%
6.01%
United Kingdom
7.05%
4.25%
2.79%
6.65%
1.19%
5.46%
France
6.95%
3.69%
3.25%
6.65%
0.78%
5.87%
Netherlands
6.69%
3.56%
3.13%
5.92%
0.52%
5.40%
Sweden
6.24%
2.04%
4.20%
5.87%
0.77%
5.10%
Switzerland
5.91%
2.24%
3.67%
5.30%
-0.15%
5.45%
Denmark
5.59%
3.72%
1.87%
5.25%
0.48%
4.78%
Belgium
7.44%
3.98%
3.46%
5.03%
0.63%
4.41%
United States
6.09%
3.82%
2.27%
5.26%
2.41%
2.86%
Japan
5.68%
1.30%
4.39%
6.52%
0.05%
6.47%
Note: 1Earnings Yield: Calculated on the broad MSCI Country Index for each respective country listed, with the exception of the United States which uses the S&P 500 Index. You cannot invest directly in an index. Historical mean period chosen to reflect live calculation history of MSCI shown Indexes. Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg, FactSet. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
15
While U.S. Was Driven by Multiple Expansion in 2013-2017, Japan Experiences Growth in Earnings 180%
Profit Increase
160%
165.2%
Price Increase
140%
% Increase
120%
104.7%
103.7%
100%
113.6%
123.2% 92.7%
88.8%
80%
55.0%
60%
31.6%
40%
60.4%
53.1%
42.7%
28.2% 12.9%
20% 0% S&P 500
Index
MSCI EAFE Index
MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index
MSCI Europe Index MSCI Europe Small MSCI Japan Index Cap Index
MSCI Japan Small Cap Index
S&P 500 Index
MSCI EAFE Index
MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI Europe Small Cap Index
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI Japan Small Cap Index
Profit Increase
31.6%
28.2%
53.1%
12.9%
60.4%
113.6%
92.7%
Price Increase
88.8%
55.0%
103.7%
42.7%
104.7%
123.2%
165.2%
P/E Start (11/30/2012)
13.2x
12.8x
14.3x
12.2x
15.3x
14.7x
13.3x
P/E End (12/31/2017)
19.0x
15.5x
19.1x
15.4x
19.6x
15.3x
18.4x
Expansion in P/E
43.4%
20.9%
33.0%
26.4%
27.7%
4.5%
37.6%
Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg, FactSet. Data is from 11/30/12 - 12/31/2017. All analysis done at the index level only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index. The start date was chosen to coincide with the start of “Abenomics”. TOPIX: Tokyo Stock Price Index
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
16
Important Information Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Funds before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, please call 866.909.9473 or visit WisdomTree.com to view a prospectus online. Read the prospectus carefully before you invest. Hedging can help returns when a foreign currency depreciates against the U.S. dollar, but it can hurt when the foreign currency appreciates against the U.S. dollar. Dividends are not guaranteed, and a company’s future ability to pay dividends may be limited. A company currently paying dividends may cease paying dividends at any time. There are risks associated with investing, including possible loss of principal. Foreign investing involves special risks, such as risk of loss from currency fluctuation or political or economic uncertainty. A fund may invest in derivatives in seeking to obtain a dynamic currency-hedge exposure. Investments in currency involve additional special risks, such as credit risk and interest rate fluctuations. Derivative investments can be volatile, and these investments may be less liquid than other securities, and more sensitive to the effects of varied economic conditions. Derivatives used by the Funds may not perform as intended. A Fund focusing their investments on a single country/region, certain sectors and/or smaller companies increase their vulnerability to any single economic or regulatory development. Investments in emerging, offshore or frontier markets are generally less liquid and less efficient than investments in developed markets and are subject to additional risks, such as risks of adverse governmental regulation, intervention and political developments. This may result in greater share price volatility. The composition of the respective Index underlying certain Funds is heavily dependent on quantitative models and data from one or more third parties, and the Index may not perform as intended. Some Funds invest in the securities included in, or representative of, their Indexes regardless of their investment merit, and the Funds do not attempt to outperform their Indexes or take defensive positions in declining markets. As certain Funds can have a high concentration in some issuers, the Funds can be adversely impacted by changes affecting those issuers. WisdomTree Investments, Inc., through its subsidiaries in the U.S., Europe, Japan and Canada (collectively "WisdomTree") is an ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager headquartered in NYC. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or component of any financial instruments or products or indexes. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each entity involved in compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties. With respect to this information, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including loss profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com)
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
17
Important Information (continued) The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or component of any financial instruments or products or indexes. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each entity involved in compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties. With respect to this information, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including loss profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com) The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard & Poor’s (“S&P”), a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and is licensed for use by WisdomTree Investments, Inc. Neither MSCI, S&P nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any such standard or classification. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. WisdomTree Investments, Inc. (“WisdomTree Investments”) is the sole owner of WisdomTree Asset Management, Inc., a registered investment adviser, and is a substantial minority owner of AdvisorEngine Inc. (“AdvisorEngine”), a digital wealth management platform. WisdomTree and/or its affiliates has a financial interest in AdvisorEngine and its business. The Kredible offering is owned by AdvisorEngine, and AdvisorEngine has licensed the Kredible offering to WisdomTree Asset Management Inc. WisdomTree Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC, in the U.S. only. WTGM-0643
Investment Themes FOR USE WITH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH RETAIL INVESTORS.
18