Virtual Suburbanization and Its Implications

A Presentation to: Global Interdependence Center’s Teton Economic Outlook

July 12, 2023

Jonathan Schechter

Executive Director,

Charture Institute, Jackson WY

Jackson, Jackson’s Hole, Teton County: Several Names for A Place of Extremes

• America’s 3,140 Counties

• Eight Data Points Illustrating One Concept – All Data US BEA 2021 Figures Unless Otherwise Noted

• The Implications of Virtual Suburbanization

Data Point 1: #1 in Total Per Capita Income

Data Point 2: #1 in Per Capita Investment Income

Data Point 3: #1 in Income Inequality

(% of Income Earned by Those Making >=$200,000 IRS 2020)

US Mean – 40.4%

1. Teton, WY – 94.2%

2. Pitkin, CO– 94.1%

3. New York, NY– 84.2%

4. Summit, UT – 83.8%

5. Marin, CA – 80.7%

6. Collier, FL – 78.8%

7. San Mateo, CA– 78.3%

8. Blaine, ID – 76.6%

9. Santa Clara, CA– 75.7%

10. San Miguel, CO – 75.1%

Data Point 4: #2 in % of Public Land/Total Land (Dept. of Interior 2013)

5. Hinsdale, CO

Data Point 5: #2 in Per Capita Jobs (of

the 2,382 counties w/ populations >10,000; #11 overall)

US Mean – 0.61

1. New York, NY – 1.81 (2021 population = 1,576,876)

2. Teton, WY – 1.51 (23,575)

3. Pitkin, CO – 1.42 (17,348)

4. District of Columbia – 1.30 (670,050)

5. Fulton, GA – 1.13 (1,065,334)

6. San Francisco, CA – 1.12 (815,201)

7. Suffolk, MA – 1.12 (771,245)

8. Los Alamos, NM – 1.08 (19,330)

9. Montour, PA – 1.05 (18,087)

10. Summit, UT – 1.02 (43,093)

11. Goochland, VA – 1.01 (25,488)

12. Arlington, VA – 1.01 (232,965)

Data Point 6: #15 in % of Jobs in Finance

1. Dallas, IA – 26.4%

2. McLean, IL –

3. New York, NY – 17.1%

4. New Castle, DE –

5. Hudson, NJ –

6. Collin, TX –

7. Fairfield, CT –

Data Point 7: #8 in 2001-2021 Growth in % of Jobs in Finance

US Mean

1. Dallas, IA – 2483%

2. Sumter, FL – 1389%

3. Walton, FL – 604%

4. Collin, TX – 446%

5. Osceola, FL – 427%

6. Oldham, KY – 417%

7. Lincoln, SD – 394%

8. Teton, WY – 392%

9. Denton, TX – 386%

10. Oglala Lakota, SD – 375%

Data Point 8: #21 in % of Jobs in Tourism (Recreation, Lodging, Restaurants)

What’s Going On?

Three Ways of Saying the Same Thing:

1. Economic Evolution •The Transition from Tourism to Finance (jobs; income)

2. The Decline of Geographic Isolation

3. The Rise of Location-Neutrality

• In 2001…

–

27% of Teton County’s jobs in tourism (21st in nation)

–

3.7% of Teton County’s jobs in finance (613th in nation)

–

55% of Teton County’s total personal income from investments (1st in nation)

• In 2021…

–

24% of Teton County’s jobs in tourism (21st in nation)

–

11.9% of Teton County’s jobs in finance (15th in nation)

–

69% of Teton County’s total personal income from investments (1st in nation)

And it’s not just Teton WY

Top 10 Counties Per Capita Investment Income:

2001 2021

1. Teton, WY – $42,863

2. Pitkin, CO – $39,210

3. Loving, TX – $30,106

4. Collier, FL – $22,181

5. Martin, FL – $22,162

6. Indian River, FL – $20,808

7. Marin, CA – $18,999

8. Palm Beach, FL – $18,904

9. Blaine, ID – $18,842

10. San Juan, WA – $18,792

1. Teton, WY – $219,488

2. Pitkin, CO – $127,882

3. McMullen, TX – $87,497

4. Summit, UT – $82,603

5. Blaine, ID – $76,331

6. Collier, FL – $66,436

7. Glasscock, TX – $61,722

8. New York, NY – $59,994

9. Monroe, FL – $59,300

10. San Miguel, CO – $52,085

Put Another Way: The Advent of Virtual Suburbanization

Schechter’s Maxim

• Technology changes faster than economies

• Economies change faster than perceptions

• Perceptions change faster than politics

• Politics change faster than laws

• Laws change faster than jurisprudence

Physical Suburbanization Following WW2 PeopleLookingforaBetterQualityofLife

• Key Factors: –

Technology –

Economy –

Transportation –

Values –

Mores

Virtual Suburbanization over Past Few Decades

PeopleLookingforaBetterQualityofLife

• Key Factors: –

Technology –

Economy –

Transportation –

Values – Mores

• COVID poured gasoline on an already burning fire

Special Challenges

Every“Special”PlaceSharesSameSuiteofChallenges

• Affordable Housing

• Transit/Traffic/Transportation

• Growing Income Inequality

• Growing Disconnect Between Local Economy and Government Funding Mechanisms

• Growing Expectations on Government to Fix “It”

New Physical Suburbs Around Special Towns Like Post-WW2, Growing in Response to Pressures

• Affordable Housing

• Transit/Traffic/Transportation

• Growing Income Inequality

• Growing Disconnect Between Local Economy and Government Funding Mechanisms

• Growing Expectations on Government to Fix “It”

Jackson Hole’s Unique Challenge: I

• The Vision Statement of Jackson/Teton County Comprehensive Plan

• Its Essence: The First Six Words:

–

“Preserve and protect the area’s ecosystem…”

• Its Rationale: The Final Fifteen Words:

–

“…in order to ensure a healthy environment, community and economy for current and future generations.”

Jackson Hole’s Unique Challenge: II

• The Unique Challenge:

–

Since advent of the Industrial Revolution 250 years ago, Jackson Hole is the only place on Earth to develop a successful industrial or post-industrial economy AND maintain a healthy, fully-functioning ecosystem

• The Implications:

–

“There is no business to be done on a dead planet.”

– David Brower

Jackson Hole’s Unique Challenge: III • The Opportunity

–

Arguably, no place on Earth has Jackson Hole’s advantages:

–

Economic: The richest county in the richest country in the history of the world

–

–

Environmental: Intact, fully-functioning ecosystem

–

–

Human: Ranks 23rd in nation in % of adults with >= bachelor’s degree (58% v. US 34%)

If we can figure out how to maintain our ecological health while maintaining our economic health, we can become a model for the world

If, with all our assets, we can’t figure it out, who can?

Jackson Hole’s Unique Challenge: IV

S=R-E: Schechter’s Equation for Life

– Satisfaction equals Reality minus Expectations

– People expect government to solve problems but in many cases government isn’t capable of so doing

–

Inadequate resources (both financial and legal)

– Wrong tool for the job (like asking a dog to climb a tree…)

Jackson Hole’s Unique Challenge: V

• The Need: A 21st Century Operating System for Our 21st Century Communities, Countries, Planet

–

There is no model for what we’re trying to accomplish

–

Our system is built on a model that trades ecological damage for economic growth

–

–

Businesses are incented to maximize externalities…

This room contains some of the brightest minds in economics – please help us

– Every “special” place in the world needs the same type of health, because virtual suburbanization is creating the same types of pressures in each of them

–

Co-thriving

–

Ultimately, our communities can be no healthier than the ecosystems in which they lie

– how do we ensure both can continue to thrive