May 14, 2018
Global Interdependence Conference Paris, France
Richard K. Mastain Managing Director, Portfolio Specialist, and Client Relationship Manager
The information in this presentation is confidential and is intended for use by the recipient only. Further distribution is prohibited without Jennison's prior consent. For your reference, many key terms in this presentation are defined in the Appendix. The information provided herein is being provided for informational purposes only. Jennison Associates LLC has not been licensed or registered to provide investment services in any jurisdiction outside the United States. The information contained in this presentation should not be construed as a solicitation or offering of investment services by Jennison or a solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any securities (nor shall any such securities be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction where such solicitation or offering would be unlawful under the applicable laws of such jurisdiction. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice and is not a recommendation to adopt any investment strategy.
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Outlook for U.S. Equities “Don't be Long Over the Weekend” - Ron Insana - April 13, 2018
“My Holding Period is Forever” - Warren Buffet*. Everyday
*Source:
The Chairman’s Letter, 1996.
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Investment Outlook for 2018 and Beyond Always headline concerns
Macro uncertainty Sustainability of bull market Valuations Wages, rates, and inflation Mid-Term elections
The views expressed herein are those of Jennison investment professionals at the time the comments were made. They may not be reflective of their current opinions, are subject to change without prior notice, and should not be considered investment advice.
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2
Many Reasons for Optimism GDP above 10-year trend
Confidence is high Earnings strong Tech is the new macro War on business is over Rate of change has accelerated Disruptive products penetration rates
The views expressed herein are those of Jennison investment professionals at the time the comments were made. They may not be reflective of their current opinions, are subject to change without prior notice, and should not be considered investment advice.
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It’s All About Earnings and Company Fundamentals Data from 3/1926 to 12/2016* 2500
S&P 500® Index Earnings Growth^ As of 11/3/17
$125
13% 2000
$100
1500
$75
1000
$50
500
$25
12%
0% 0
$0
-1% 2015
S&P 500 Index Price (LHS)
2016
2017E
2018E
S&P 500 TTM EPS (RHS)
*Source:
©Macrotrends.net, using data from Standard & Poor’s & Robert Shiller. This chart compares the S&P 500® historical price with its trailing twelve month (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) value. The two series are adjusted for inflation using the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) number with the current month as the base. ^Source for chart and data: Evercore ISI used with permission. There is no assurance estimates or forecasts will come to pass. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Are We Due for a Major Correction? In the past, market corrections have occurred when one (or more) of the following
happened: Corporate earnings went negative Inflation accelerated, Central Banks aggressively raised rates, yield curve inverted Speculative excesses created bubbles - disconnects between valuations and forward earnings Global geo-political crisis destroyed confidence The restrained growth we have seen since the last correction has been extending the length of the current up cycle
As of 4/30/18.
The views expressed herein are those of Jennison investment professionals at the time the comments were made. They may not be reflective of their current opinions, are subject to change without prior notice, and should not be considered investment advice.
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PEG Ratios on NTM EPS Better for Faster Growers 2.5
Quintile 4 - Slower Growers
S&P 1500ÂŽ
PEG Ratio
2.0
1.5
1.0
Quintile 1 - Faster Growers
0.5
0.0
Dec-02
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-12
Dec-14
Dec-16
Quarterly data from 1/1/03 to 12/31/17.
Source: FactSet. Chart was created by Jennison using FactSet data for the Forward Two Year PEG Ratio for the S&P 1500ÂŽ Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Growth Stocks Attractively Valued Large Cap Technology (Capitalization-Weighted) Price to Forward Earnings Relative to the S&P 500速 2.5X
2.0X
1.5X
1.1x
1.0X
0.5X
0.0X
Tech Relative to S&P 500速
Average
Current
Data from 10/1/1979 to 4/12/2018. Source: Bernstein Quantitative Services (used with permission), using data from FactSet, MSCI, CRSP, and Bernstein. Relative P/FE of Technology represents the S&P 500速 Technology Index vs. the S&P 500速 Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Modest to Disruptive Innovation Innovation is ongoing, sometimes sustainable, and occasionally disruptive Modest innovation: Sustains market leadership, spurs short-term growth Product cycles (Apple)
Transformative innovation: Disrupts market dynamics, leads to long-term growth iPod, iTunes, iPhone (Apple) E-commerce (Amazon/Alibaba) Social media (Facebook) Entertainment: online streaming, content creation (Netflix) Digital payments: Tencent, Ant Financial
Potentially disruptive innovation in process: Winners and impact not yet clear Electric vehicles (Tesla?) Automated driving (Alphabet, Tesla?) Shared mobility/lodging
The companies mentioned above are examples of well-known innovative companies. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument or any investment management services. This material does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
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Looking Ahead: What Sectors Do You Want to Consider? Technology is the new macro - the rate of change in innovation has meaningfully accelerated Key Secular Trends: Artificial intelligence - deep/machine learning
Big data
Mobility
The Cloud
Autonomous cars
Explosion of new and connected consumers globally
Social networking E-commerce
Robotics
Drug discovery and innovation - CRISPR
Payment Processing
The views expressed herein are those of Jennison investment professionals at the time the comments were made. They may not be reflective of their current opinions, are subject to change without prior notice, and should not be considered investment advice.
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Mobile Innovation Has Changed Most Everything We Chat App
Messaging, browser, media player, mobile payments, e-commerce are all done on mobile devices
962 Million
# of users
650 Million
# of users in China
1.6 hours
Time per day the average Chinese spends on the app
As of 12/31/17.
Source for photo: iStock. Source for data: Tencent. The views expressed herein are those of Jennison investment professionals at the time the comments were made. They may not be reflective of their current opinions, are subject to change without prior notice, and should not be considered investment advice.
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Smartphones Disruption Was Seismic Unstoppable (Shipments, m)
Data from 12/31/76 to 12/31/14. Source: Š The Economist Newspaper Limited, London (February 28, 2015). Certain information in this document has been obtained from sources that Jennison believes to be reliable as of the date presented; however, Jennison cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. The information contained herein is current as of the date of issuance (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and is subject to change without notice. Jennison has no obligation to update any or all such information; nor do we make any express or implied warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument or any investment management services. This presentation does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. This commentary does not purport to provide any legal, tax, or accounting advice.
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Three Themes We See Today
Mobile/Internet
E-Commerce
Video Streaming
Source for photos: iStock.
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Mobile Payments: the Next Disruptor? In terms of mobile payments, China already dwarfs U.S. 2016
$T 6
$5.5 T
5 4
50x
3 2 1 $112 B 0 U.S.
China
Source for chart: Tencent. The views expressed herein are those of Jennison investment professionals at the time the comments were made. They may not be reflective of their current opinions, are subject to change without prior notice, and should not be considered investment advice.
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Video Streaming Netflix: Transformative business model with content creation and global scalability Netflix Ending Subscriber Base (M)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2011
2012
2013 Domestic
2014 International
2015
2016
3Q17
Total
Source for chart data: Netflix. Source for photos: iStock. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument or any investment management services. This material does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
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Summary Always headline noise and concerns Unique business models reaching more end users more quickly Valuations in disruptive business models are relatively attractive
The views expressed herein are those of Jennison investment professionals at the time the comments were made. They may not be reflective of their current opinions, are subject to change without prior notice, and should not be considered investment advice.
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Appendix
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Presenter Richard K. Mastain, Managing Director, Portfolio Specialist, and Client Relationship Manager Richard K. Mastain is a managing director, a portfolio specialist, and a client relationship manager for Jennison's large cap growth strategies. He joined Jennison Associates in November 2000. Prior to Jennison, Richard spent seven years at Dreman Value Advisor/Zurich Investment Management as a managing director and partner, where he served on the investment committee and managed value equity portfolios for clients, in addition to being responsible for client service and marketing. He received a BA in American history with a minor in economics from Bowdoin College.
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Notes These materials may not take into account all individual client circumstances, objectives or needs. Jennison makes no representations regarding the suitability of any securities, financial instruments or strategies described in these materials for particular clients or prospects. These materials are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument or any investment management services. These materials do not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions or holdings discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. These materials do not purport to provide any legal, tax or accounting advice. For ERISA Clients and Prospects - These materials are for informational or educational purposes. In providing these materials, Jennison (i) is not acting as your fiduciary as defined by the Department of Labor and is not giving advice in a fiduciary capacity and (ii) is not undertaking to provide impartial investment advice as Jennison will receive compensation for its investment management services. This product or service is available to ERISA plans only when represented by an Independent Fiduciary as defined by the DOL. A plan or its Independent Fiduciary will be asked to make representations in the contractual agreements to enable reliance on the Independent Fiduciary exception from the definition of fiduciary in the DOL’s regulations. Certain third party information in this document has been obtained from sources that Jennison believes to be reliable as of the date presented; however, Jennison cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information, assure its completeness, or warrant such information will not be changed. Jennison has no obligation to update any or all such third party information. The S&P 500® Index provides a broad indicator of stock price movements. The S&P Composite 1500®(S&P 1500) Index combines three leading indices, the S&P 500®, the S&P MidCap 400®, and the S&P SmallCap 600® to cover approximately 90% of the U.S. market capitalization. It is designed for investors seeking to replicate the performance of the U.S. equity market or benchmark against a representative universe of tradable stocks. The financial indices referenced herein are provided for informational purposes only. All indices referenced in this presentation are registered trade names or trademark/service marks of third parties. References to such trade names or trademark/service marks and data is proprietary and confidential and cannot be redistributed without Jennison's prior consent. Investors cannot directly invest in an index. GDP data are provided by the US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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