Trade and the Future of Industry: An Outlook on Agriculture
September 12, 2018 Chicago, Illinois
David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org
Total farm share of 17.2%
U.S. output shares from farming, food manufacturing and services
Source: Calculations based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Federal Reserve System
7th District Agriculture Products (as % of U.S. total, 2017)
Source: Calculations based on data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
District output shares from farming, food manufacturing and services
Source: Calculations based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source: Calculated using data from the USDA, Economic Research Service
Real net farm income edged up in 2017, but is expected to be down in 2018
2018*
*USDA forecast (excluding MFP)
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
Farmland values for the U.S. and for Seventh District states ($, weighted by acres)
7th District
U.S.
Source: Calculated using data from the USDA, Economic Research Service
Banks Banks Participating in 7th District Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey
Annual change in farmland values in 7th Federal Reserve District
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Indexes of 7th District Farmland Values vs. Cash Rents (Adjusted by PCE price index, 1981=100)
Land values
Cash rents
Source: Calculations by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Farmland Price to Earnings Ratio for the Seventh District (2000=1.0)
USDA Index
7G Index
7th District Earnings to Price Ratio (left axis, 1981=1.0) vs. Real Return on 10 Year Treasury Bonds Percent
E/P Ratio
10 year bond rate
Source: Calculated from Federal Reserve data
Index of non-real-estate farm loan demand for the 7th Federal Reserve District
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Farm loan volume with “major” or “severe” repayment problems in 7th Federal Reserve District (at end of every second quarter)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Interest rates charged on new farm loans in the 7th Federal Reserve District
Farm operating Farm real estate
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Real farm sector assets and equity still at levels above prior peak
2018*
Assets
Equity
Debt
*USDA forecast
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
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