G A M E C R E E K C APITAL
GAME CREEK CAPITALSM
Two International Place, Suite 2620, Boston, MA 02110
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: JP Morgan 2
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
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July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Strategas Research Partners 4
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: JP Morgan 5
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: JP Morgan 6
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Evercore ISI 7
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Evercore ISI 8
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Strategas Research Partners 9
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
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July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Concerns About Investing Environment Central banks shift away from QE (liquidity supply). Increase in interest rates = less bond demand, more supply (rising government deficit); inflation uptick. Profitability – possible pressure on profit margins. Low expected returns when investing at 20X earnings (trailing 12 months).
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July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Strategas Research Partners 12
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Strategas Research Partners 13
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Morgan Stanley 14
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Strategas Research Partners 15
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Wall Street Journal 16
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: JP Morgan 17
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
S&P 500 Quarterly Buybacks
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July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Evercore ISI 19
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Median stock YTD from its high (12%)
Source: Citi 20
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Goldman Sachs 21
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Empirical 22
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Empirical 23
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Empirical 24
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Morgan Stanley 25
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: The Economist 26
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Goldman Sachs 27
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
When trading liquidity evaporates: One possible theory Adverse selection is the enemy of liquidity supply. When shocks of unknown origin cause sudden price declines, HFTs may have reason to assume that the shock is being driven by fundamental news (e.g., if the price decline follows a complex macro surprise or dramatic policy announcement). Under these circumstances, HFTs are at higher risk of being adversely selected by more fundamentally informed traders, so their optimal response is to withdraw liquidity by widening their quotes or by withdrawing them altogether. As selling continues, a feedback loop can arise where the resulting lack of liquidity causes bigger price declines, which then causes HFTs to supply even less liquidity, in some case even switching to strategies that aggressively demand liquidity rather than supplying it.
Source: Goldman Sachs 28
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
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July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: B.C. comic strip, 6/3/18 30
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Strategas Research Partners 31
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Source: Strategas Research Partners 32
July 2018 // INVESTOR PRESENTATION
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