Vol. 1, No. 3
November 21, 2016
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Can President Park Geunhye survive scandal?
Introduction
South Korea, a key US ally in a rough neighborhood in Asia, has been rocked for over a month by scandal involving President Park Geun-hye and longtime friend, Choi Soon-sil.
The first item is the scandal shaking the South Korean government. The second story is an x-ray of the political crisis gripping the EU.
Choi is suspected of having meddled in state affairs and peddled influence on various state projects by exploiting her decades-long friendship with President Park Geun-hye.
The third item takes a closer look at the closer relationship between Turkey and Russia, especially in energy security. Finally, a second version of the Colombia peace agreement has been ironed out after the defeat of the first version in early October.
The timing could not be worse. At a time when Beijing is wooing the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal after 1
losing an International Court battle, North Korea ramps up its nuclear testing, and concerns grow that Pyongyang can miniaturize a warhead to top its ballistic missiles.
damage sustained from the corruption scheme.
“Choi-gate” may ultimately upend the Park presidency as prosecutors now charge that the South Korean president So far the North has not tried “colluded” with her friend in to press any the extortion The European advantage in scheme involving the matter. two prominent Union was built on companies. President Park’s a shaky foundation to start. lengthy Ms. Park could still connections face criminal with the Choi Family, founders liability even after her term in of a religious sect, have office. embroiled her in a domestic The EU Maelstrom scandal that seems sure to The Brexit vote has, as argued greatly weaken her authority in our Global Zoom, – Britain’s during her final year in office Brighter Future After Brexit – and could force her to resign. hurt Brussels more than Ms. Park already has been London. forced to issue an apology, The European Union was built changed her cabinet, and on a shaky foundation to start appointed a new prime because the eruo-elites never minister because of the carried the general public globalsecuritymonitor.net
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along with them to the nirvana in Brussels.
When Merkel agreed with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to prosecute satirist Jan Böhmermann for his criticisms, those who love free speech in Europe had to cringe.
As the ruling elite fast approaches the final steps for a “united Europe,” a majority of Europeans have second thoughts.
Her big misstep has drawn the wrath of her fellow citizens and outside for her carte blanche migration siren call that has seen the EU beset with millions of “refugees” from the Middle East and North Africa.
The news that the real president of the EU, Angela Merkel, will stand again for her fourth term as Chancellor of Germany, cannot be welcome among some member states. Merkel is the longest-serving EU leader, heads the largest economy in Europe, and on balance has provided steady leadership in face of the euro money crisis, the Ukraine crisis, and Greece indebtedness.
To arrive in Germany, the wave of asylum seekers have to traverse Croatia, and Hungary, which unleashed chaos in those states thanks to the German chancellor. Hungary finally closed its border with Croatia which pushed the refugees into neighboring Slovenia. Slovenia
Commentary about her role as leader of the free world is grossly misplaced. globalsecuritymonitor.net
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and Croatian soon followed suit.
53% - “good thing” to be in the EU
From Sweden to Germany, 35% - EU contributes to sexual assault by the migrant economic growth youth has Right-Wrong Track caused Another shock to 25% - EU on right pushback to the beleaguered EU track (+3%) , 54% Merkel’s open family could come on wrong track border in early December (+13%) migration.
with the Italian constitutional reform vote.
The advice of the mayor of Cologne for women to cover themselves set off an outcry.
agree The euro currency – only 33% (-6%) see it as unifying element.
The “euro mood” appears foul. The 2016 Parlemeter poll commissioned by the European Parliament should give Merkel and fellow EU leaders pause.
Harmonizing the welfare state across borders would add to unity – 46% (+1%) A Euro Army would add to the unity – 15%, -1%
Here is a short summary of the results from EU member states (September 2015 and September 2016): globalsecuritymonitor.net
“My voice counts” – 59% totally disagree, 37% totally
Another shock to the beleaguered EU family could come in early December with 4
the Italian constitutional reform vote.
The Euro-elites have abused the people for far too long.
The accelerating euro outflow from Italy is not encouraging and Rome’s exit is floated as a possibility.
Turk-Russian Ties that Bind Relations between Ankara and Moscow have improved dramatically in the last part of 2016.
For 2017, Eurozone economic growth is not forecast to exceed 2%. The German “locomotive” is slowing.
A Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet downed a supersonic Russian Sukhoi Su24M attack aircraft near the Syria–Turkey border on 24 November 2015.
The EU is energy-starved as explained in our recent 3 Power Plays and defenseless without NATO despite chattering about a unified defense effort.
President Erdogan experienced a haplessly failed coup against in July 2016.
The EU is disunited, fracturing, and headed for “collapse” in the words of French Prime Minister Manuel Valls precisely because Berlin and Paris cannot provide the necessary leadership, vision, and economic strength to lead the Euro Project to conclusion. globalsecuritymonitor.net
Though a complex duality exists between Erdogan and Putin, there are ties that bind and the implications for the West and Ukraine are noticeable. First, the off-again on-again “TurkStream” gas pipeline helps Russia bypass Ukraine to 5
supply gas to the European Union.
Should the West fear the TurkRussian closeness? Not really.
The TurkStream dual pipeline Sure Erdogan and Putin are will be built under the Black authoritarians who need each Sea and will surface on the other as a customer and seller shore of the of Russian gas. European part Ukraine stands to Further, Moscow of Turkey near needs Turkey more lose $2 billion Kıyıköy with than Ankara Russia when current gas delivery because of contracts expire in point at geography. 2019. Lüleburgaz for Turkey holds the the Turkish keys to the strategic customer. chokepoints – Dardanelles and Annual capacity of each line is Bosporus. to be 15.75 billion cubic meters Russia needs access to of gas. Turkey’s friendship for its Ukraine stands to lose $2 merchant vessels and warships billion when current contracts to reach the Mediterranean expire in 2019. from Moscow's warm water The thaw between NATO-ally ports in the Black Sea. Turkey and NATO-rival Russia Also, despite the slap at comes at a moment when both Ukraine and warming ties with countries experience tough Turkey, uncertainty reigns if economies and strained ties the TurkStream Project will with the West. globalsecuritymonitor.net
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actually come to a successful conclusion – getting Russian gas to southern Europe.
Putin’s grab of the Crimea where thousands of Turkspeaking Tartars dwell (a legacy of the Ottoman Empire) and his steely support of Assad in Syria are difficult for Ankara to accept despite its energy needs.
Moscow sees the southern gas strategy as a test of the West’s resolve to protect Ukraine’s interests. After the SouthStream deal between the EU and Russia was nixed after the Ukraine invasion, Moscow has to have its doubts. Gazprom needs the EU to accept the extension across Greece to supply gas or the state-run energy company will not recover its investment in the project.
Thus, a deeper rapprochement is unlikely beyond energy and economic cooperation. Colombian Political Class’ Chagrin The Colombian people will not have the opportunity to vote directly on the second peace agreement after the first one failed.
Both large natural gas importer Ankara and energystarved Brussels are trying to replace reliance on Russian gas.
The Colombian political class cannot risk a second disapproval and instead will rely on the people’s representatives – their friends – in Congress.
In the end, geopolitics will probably keep Moscow and Ankara apart. globalsecuritymonitor.net
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The rush for implementation is curious after 50-plus years The rush for of war.
On Wednesday, President Santos is expected to deliver the accord to implementation is As the Congress and the expression curious after 50-plus pressure will be goes, haste on for swift years of war. makes waste. approval of a Two thorny points remain that flawed agreement. political leaders in Bogota For “peace” one needs justice. have no answer for the “No voters” who rejected the first The second agreement does peace accord in early October: not have a fair mechanism for justice. 1) The narco-rebels FARC will be given seats in the Another biting failure will be Congress to participate in not treating the FARC as losers the political realm of the civil war. without any election or The second “peace” agreement expression of support by will have dire long-term voters, and consequences for the survival
2) Impunity is still built-in to the agreement or the FARC would not even contemplate abiding by its terms (if they do anyhow). globalsecuritymonitor.net
of the weak democracy in Bogota.
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