Geopolitical insider11142016

Vol. 1, No. 2

November 14, 2016 issue on the plate of global security strategists.

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Overreaction to Trump Victory

Introduction

Donald J. Trump’s victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton to become the next president of the United States stunned many, maybe except his most fervent supporters.

The overreaction to president-elect Trump, Hong Kong protests for liberty, a new Colombian peace accord, and North Korea’s rapid “nuke up” headline your new Geopolitical Insider.

However, the overreaction by some foreign policy observers to what a Trump presidency might bring in global security borders on hyperbolic.

Some foreign policy observers have freaked out about Donald Trump in the White House, but there is reason for cheer.

Articles affirming that China won the US presidential contest, no Putin actually won, to insulting the mass of Trump voters, and declaring the end of global politics as we knew it, appear more based on ideological bias than calm analysis.

The light of liberty continues to fade in Hong Kong.

After the rejection of the Colombian Peace Accord by plebiscite at the end of September, the Santos Administration and the FARC hammered out a new accord.

A balanced view of the Trump phenomenon is a welcome break

Finally, North Korea’s rapid “nuke up” continues to be a smoldering 1

from the outlandish reaction of other observers.

These latter two points seem a more cogent argument that a President Trump is not going to abandon the US global role.

During the election, the Democrat opposition tried to pin apparent Russian hacking of the Democrat National Committee and associated campaign organs on the Trump Campaign.

Hong Kong Dying Light of Liberty On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was transferred to the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

CNN reported days before the election that the FBI could not find a clear link to Trump and Russia.

The former British colony Hong Kong denizens are proud to be Chinese and democratic.

While the exact moves of a However, after the handover, the President Trump in first leader of Hong global security is Hong Kong will Kong was elected by a evolving, his already PRC-appointed not let liberty die stated opposition to committee — an so easily to the the ridiculous “Iran inauspicious sign of the chagrin of Beijing.

Deal.” That is dynamo island’s future sobering. relation with autocratic Beijing.

The obvious – the world’s leading terror state should not have nuclear weapons – somehow did not register with the Obama Administration.

In 2003, Hong Kong leader Tung Chee-hwa, facing thousands of protestors, was forced to abandon planned anti-subversion laws with severe punishments for anyone guilty of treason, sedition and subversion.

Also in contrast to the current president, president-elect Trump says he wants to build up a weak to marginal US military.

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There is no doubt that the dictators in Beijing wanted that law to pass.

The National People's Congress in Beijing ruled that the Sixtus Leung and Yau Wai-ching had to pledge allegiance to Hong Kong under the rule of China or they would not be seated.

Just last year, pro-democracy legislators vetoed a bill that would have only allowed direct election of the island’s chief executive from a list of candidates approved by Beijing.

Beijing’s direct interference in the affairs of Hong Kong since 1997 is a worrisome development for prodemocracy denizens there and abroad.

The aim of the Chinese communists is well-known – just look at the Mainland or wherever dictators reign.

Not only Hong Kong’s guiding principle – one country, but two systems – seems The political class, more implausible now, just like with Brexit but so does the in the United semblance of democratic law at the hands of Kingdom, was Beijing’s dictators. aghast.

So, the latest dustup involving two newlyelected legislators to Hong Kong’s Legislature and how they gave their oath of office cannot be a surprise.

Misplaced Hopes for New Colombian “Peace” Deal?

The Colombian Peace Accord seems to be revived if one can believe in the nebulous term “peace.” Peace is not relying on the bad intentions of your enemy.

Their “in your face” theatrics included pledging allegiance to “the Hong Kong nation”, used the imperial Japanese pronunciation of “China”, and displayed a banner declaring that “Hong Kong is not China,” as reported in the Economist magazine. globalsecuritymonitor.net

In early October 2016, by a narrow margin, Colombians rejected the first agreement ironed out in 3

Havana, Cuba, between the Santos government and the FARC narcorebels.

While the Colombian press hypes that “65%” of the old accord was modified in the new agreement, two central points which concerned the “no” vote did not change: the narco-rebel’s political participation after casting their guns aside and impunity for crimes against humanity committed during the civil war.

Any new accord will not be trusted to the people who have to live with its consequences.

The new agreement will likely be voted on by their omnipotent leaders in Congress who know better than the people despite the lack of political Any negotiations with consensus in the country to the “good offices” of support the Castros in Cuba implementation would normally give of the Accord.

any serious pause.

The earlier plebiscite was overshadowed by the political tug-of-war between former president Alvaro Uribe and his former defense minister and successor, President Manuel Santos.

At least there was some movement on leader the declaration of the narco-rebels’ assets to pay compensation to victims of their atrocities.

The laughable claim of poverty by the narco-smuggling guerrilla was “modified” in the new accord.

The FARC will be called to proffer an accounting of their assets during the demobilization.

Santos is not the most popular president and his lack of support did not help the “yes” vote for the peace agreement back in October.

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The guerrilla will be given seats in Congress without any votes cast.

However, that one peso will ever be spent on victims is still a chimera.

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Colombia needs something more than peace; it needs security.

not be as magnanimous as the current Colombian political class.

The “peace talks” are just an avenue for the leftist rebels to acquire a veneer of civilization and humanity while they work the corrupt electoral system to their advantage just like in El Salvador.

China’s l’enfant terrible A worrisome trend especially in 2016 is North Korea’s rapid “nuke up.”

From the submarine launched Their aim is still the same – upend ballistic missile the fragile (SLBM) in August to Pyongyang forges democracy in its fifth underground ahead with little Colombia and nuclear test a month establish a narcoworld opposition. later, Pyongyang state like in continues to ramp up neighboring Venezuela and enact its nuclear program. The latter was the same ruinous policies. reported to be of 10 kiloton explosive power – more than twice From the start, that inveterate its previous test in January.

FARC narco-rebels would suddenly stop their multi-billion dollar business for a few seats in the Colombian Congress and pretend to play nice is ridiculous.

Even without a viable submarine to launch ballistic missiles (right now), the sea-based missile test shows a drive for a nuclear second capability in the event of a nuclear exchange.

The FARC are treated as the victors of the civil war, not the defeated.

Plus, even if an outside power could destroy Pyongyang’s landbased missiles, the threat of a sealaunch guarantees a greater survivability rate for retaliation.

The air of victory lends to imperiousness, not remorsefulness.

Should the day arrive when they are in power, the former rebels will globalsecuritymonitor.net

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North Korea is also a proliferator of its nuclear and missile technology.

One of the principal recipients/customers is the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Finally, advances also this year include its launch of Kwangmyongsong-4 over the Super Bowl in San Francisco, California.

Satellite launches are a means to test long-range ballistic missiles.

In terms of nuclear doctrine, scope and range of missiles, and kiloton yield of nuclear blasts, the one power that could make North Korea behave, the PRC, its chief benefactor, so far enjoys its enfant terrible causing problems for South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

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