Geopolitical insider 11072016

Vol. 1, No. 1

November 7, 2016

Headline: True “Reset” in US-Russian Relations 2016 US Presidential Election The 58th election of the US president will occur on Tuesday.

Of all the campaign dynamics, Russian interference in the presidential contest via information warfare has raised disturbing global security questions.

The maskirovska tactics may be grist for hopeful Donald Trump, but the clear objective seems to personally undermine and weaken the likely incumbent Hillary Rodham Clinton.

A damaged president – especially before beginning the term – is a worrisome development.

should Mrs. Clinton prevail in the election?

The next president will need to reset US-Russian relations, again – if possible – in a sober steelyeyed policy response to many provocations from Moscow across the globe.

Hard Brexit Break Up The British Ruling Class strikes back!

The UK High Court erected a barrier to “Brexit” last Thursday to London’s leave of the European Union.

Euroskeptics won the June referendum by 51.9% to pull out of the EU.

Indeed, Russia’s invisible hand in Wikileaks sets up another disruptive scenario – the nexus of cyberwarfare and political-eco manipulation (read blackmail).

New Prime Minister Teresa May maintains that she still plans to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by March 2017.

Will Wiki-Russia et al release even more embarrassing emails

However, the judicial ruling requires Parliament to also vote yeah or nay.

The British Ruling Class vociferously pushed the “remain campaign” against the wishes of their constituents.

The savage bombing and streetto-street combat have devastated Syria’s storied second-largest city.

Now the same members of Parliament can either follow the will of the people or risk the consequences on Election Day. The gulf between the elected class and their electors continues to widen.

When rebels were unable to capture the city from Assad in mid-July 2012, the city was bifurcated and now proDamascus-Russian-Iranian forces are zeroing in Members of Parliament on eliminating can either follow the resistance.

will of the people or risk the consequences on Election Day.

Aleppo’s return to Assad control at a very high cost will mark another turn in the protracted Syrian Civil War beginning in spring 2011 and totaling over 500,000 deaths.

More uncertainty and delay are surely not what the UK or EU needs at this point.

Watch this latest act in the Brexit drama unfold - Prime Minister May may have to call a general election.

Drawing a line eastward across Syria to Iraq, another city – Mosul – is under assault by Iraqi and allied forces to expel Islamic State fighters from their stronghold.

Could Brexit end another Tory’s political career?

Tale of Two Cities: Aleppo and Mosul

As Aleppo was a crossroads in its region of the Middle East through the ages, so has Mosul been a magnet for many since its days as the capital of the ancient Assyrian Empire.

Russia is in full control of the operation to sack the northern Syrian city of Aleppo and eject the anti-Assad forces. The US is sidelined.

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The recapture of the Sunni Muslim and Kurd-dominated second-largest Iraqi city promises to be as nasty a campaign till the bitter end like Aleppo.

President Erdogan in the NATO country.

Islamist President Erdogan has ordered mass arrests of 80,000 people in the military, judiciary, media (including editors of largest opposition paper last week), business, and education sectors.

US Army Lt. Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, commanding general of Operation Inherent Resolve, described the Islamic State's defense of Mosul "as a Whether ISIS hard center and then a softer middle and then fighters hold Mosul or flee remains an a very hard crust.”

Coalition forces against the ISIS have only just begun to spill into the outskirts of the city.

open

Also just like Aleppo, the humanitarian costs are expected to soar as the city is retaken block by block in urban warfare.

The reported arrest of the leaders of Turkey's proKurdish HDP question. opposition party last Thursday only underscores Ankara’s slide toward autocracy.

The Wall Street Journal reports on the bleak prospects of Turkish economy imperiled by the hysterical overreaction of Erdogan.

However, some observers believe the ISIS fighters will defend their last stronghold in Iraq and will not flee despite being invested on all sides by Coalition forces.

Under the current leadership, it appears doubtful Turkey will remain committed to economic and political pluralism that other NATO countries practice.

That remains an open question.

Turkey Takedown

Indeed, a strong Islamist current runs through Erdogan’s domestic and international policies.

Turkey’s post-coup purge continues to swing toward total elimination of dissent of 3

Turkey’s abrupt departure from its secular course is not the only development.

historical pains (and centuries of wars with the Ottoman Turk Empire) to secure access to the eastern Mediterranean Sea through the Bosporus and Dardanelles.

The lurch toward Russia and Iran surely unnerves Western observers. The main reason is – Syria.

Of course, Russian energy deals in the Eastern Mediterranean are also of concern given his energydependent economy under the weight of Western sanctions.

Ankara appears content to countenance Moscow’s moves to control events in Syria in exchange for continued support of Sunni influence in the region.

Turkey’s strategic geography plays a decisive part in Moscow’s approach to Ankara.

Turk conciliation with the Russians and Iranians could boost its posture in its miniconflicts against the Islamic State and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in Syria.

Erdogan’s increasingly Islamist autocracy and coziness with Moscow and Tehran deserve closer observation as the new US president takes the reins next January 20.

The shifting tides of Turk relations with its neighbors given the backdrop of Erdogan’s authoritarian rule are deep cause of concern.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot forget his country’s

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