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ISSUE 1
BEEF PRODUCER
FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER
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INTERNATIONAL BRANGUS BREEDERS ASSOCIATION STAFF The Frontline Beef Producer (ISSN 0006-9132) is published by Brangus Publications, Inc. (BPI), as a segment of the Brangus Journal, 8870 US Highway 87 East, San Antonio, Texas, 78263, twice yearly in the spring and fall. Periodicals postage paid at San Antonio, Texas and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: send address changes to: Brangus Publications, Inc., P.O. Box 809, Adkins, Texas 78101. BPI Officers and Board of Directors: Chairman: Eddy Roberts President: Darrell Wilkes, PhD Secretary/Treasurer: Mike Weathers Director: Bill Davis Subscriptions: Lori Edwards, ledwards@gobrangus.com, 210.696.8231 Subscription Rates: complimentary Information appearing in this issue may be reprinted only with written permission of Brangus Publications, Inc. Livestock Publications Council (LPC) Member
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FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER A News Source for Commercial Beef Producers
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ISSUE 1
THE ERA OF GENETICS
CONTENTS
VOLUME 12
TABLE OF
2020 THE 50,000-LB. DILEMMA
MEASURING THE VALUE OF GENETICS
THE 50,000-LB. SOLUTION
THE VALUE OF BRINGING BEEF QUALITY ASSURANCE BEYOND PRODUCERS HEIFER SELECTION: THE ROAD TO PROFITABILITY COOPERATORS WANTED FOR THE BRANGUS VALUE PROJECT FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER
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THE ERA OF GENETICS by Darrell Wilkes, PhD, International Brangus Breeders Association, Executive Vice President
It seems apparent that the primary opportunity to continue improvements in beef production efficiency and carcass value will come from genetic advancement. This may not surprise anybody. What might surprise you is to learn that experts in poultry production believe that 90 percent of their future gains in productivity will come from genetics also. Poultry scientists round out the remaining 10 percent of potential gains under the categories of nutrition at five percent; environment at three percent; and health at two percent. This is a bit surprising to me. I had been led to believe that the poultry industry already had their ducks in a row regarding genetics (attempt at poultry humor intentional). I vividly recall my days in graduate school sharing a large basement office with other graduate students who were working on pig genetics. They spoke with excitement and anticipation that someday, maybe someday, pigs would convert feed at 4:1 and would wean eight pigs per litter. “Wow,” they said, “such gains would be incredible.” Well, they underestimated their own science. Professional breeding companies and high-tech integrators came into play in the pig industry and they now covert feed at 2.2:1 and wean over 11 pigs per litter. A leading pig genetics company claims they are currently achieving a faster rate of genetic improvement than ever before in their history. After all the gains they’ve made, one would think that their rate of improvement would be hitting a plateau. The opposite is true. Beef production has also had dramatic increases in productivity. Compared to just 30 years ago, we are producing about 25 percent more beef with about 10 percent fewer beef cows. The total cattle inventory has shrunk from about 130 million in 1976 to less than 95 million in 2019 while beef production has increased by 20 percent. This advancement is pretty easy to explain. In simple terms, we have produced fastergrowing cattle that reach a heavier finish weight sooner. This has come about through advancements in genetics, nutrition, and health – and significant changes in business models which encouraged cattle placement into feedlots at a younger age. Instead of placing 18-month old cattle in a feedlot, the industry is sending 18-month old (or younger) cattle to the packer weighing 1,300 to 1,400 pounds. The total savings in feed alone is almost impossible to calculate. If the beef industry is going to continue this trend in productivity gains, I submit that most of it must come from genetics. Gains from nutrition, management, and health will continue, of course. One could argue, however, that the trend 6
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to place younger and younger cattle into feedlots might not have much room for growth moving forward. Our genetic improvement curve should get steeper in the years ahead compared to the curve we’ve seen in the past 30 years. Today, when we add the benefits of massive databases with ultra-powerful computers along with the power of genomics (DNA testing), we can buy a virgin bull with the same degree of genetic assurance that once required 20-30 progeny records to create. With higher fertility semen and very effective synchronization protocols, seedstock breeders who utilize artificial insemination (AI) can stack pedigrees and produce extraordinary genetic packages by the thousands. I was amazed to discover that nearly 10 percent of the Brangus registrations come from embryo transfer; which means that breeders are not only skimming off the very top of the sire pool to make the next generation, they are also cherry-picking the cows. We have the tools to produce beef more efficiently while not compromising quality. According to recent reports by USDA’s Economic Research Service, beef steak on average sells for about double the price of a pork chop and about triple the price of a chicken breast. This concerns some folks. I personally think it’s great. Consumers have a choice. Nobody is forcing them to choose beef when they could dine cheaper on pork or poultry. They are willing to pay more for beef because it’s worth it to them. I learned that in Econ 101. While we strive to continue the gains in productivity, we need to remember the premium that consumers willingly pay for beef comes with an expectation that it tastes great. Now, back to genetics. With the extraordinary tools we have available today, we can actually improve the quality of beef simultaneous with improving production efficiency. For decades, it was postulated that beef quality and production efficiency were antagonistic. That isn’t true. With modern genetic evaluation tools, we can identify animals that excel in both - quality and efficiency. Brangus breeders are committed to offering the very best genetics available to produce high quality beef in harsh environments. Your investment in registered Brangus genetics is one of the highest return investments you can make. Contact the breeders featured in this issue of Frontline Beef Producer, or visit www.gobrangus.com to find a Brangus breeder near you. Invest in Brangus genetics. The payback is there.
FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER
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50,000-LB. dilemma
THE
by Darrell Wilkes, PhD, International Brangus Breeders Association, Executive Vice President
One wouldn’t think that the size of a truck would have much economic effect on an industry as big and complex as the beef industry, but in a strange way, it has a huge effect. A 53-foot potbelly trailer can hold about 50,000-lb. of cattle. Some states allow longer trailers which can handle more weight; but for the purpose of this article we will assume a truck holds 50,000-lb. of cattle, whether that’s 100 calves at 500-lb. or 35 finished steers at 1,400-lb. The cow-calf producer who does not have enough cattle to make a 50,000-lb. load of same-sex, similar-weight, consistent-type feeder cattle is, in effect, forced into a situation of less-than-optimal marketing which translates into less-thanoptimal pricing for his or her cattle. This author [myself] is not suggesting in any way that there is a conspiracy against smaller producers, or that somebody is cheating or taking advantage of smaller producers by paying less for their small groups of cattle.
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It is simply a fact that smaller groups of cattle – with all else being equal – will bring less money than groups that are large enough to fill a truck. The reasons are simple. Smaller groups of cattle typically will pass through more hands, will involve more transactions/commissions, more loading and unloading, and will incur higher costs between the time they leave the producer’s property and the time they land in a feedlot. The only obvious way to cover all the extra cost is to pay less for the calves in the first place. We often hear complaints from producers that the gooseneck load of calves they sold at the local auction barn brought significantly less per pound than a group of sameweight calves that are listed on a video sale report. There could be many reasons for the price difference, including differences in perceived or actual genetic quality, health status, or a myriad of other value-influencing factors. But even if all the normal
value determinants were equal, the smaller group of cattle will not match the full-load (or multi-load) sale price reported by the video auction. Large feedlots are simply not interested in smaller groups of cattle. As feedlots have become larger and larger, the number of cattle they need each week just to fill in behind the cattle they sell to a packer naturally increases. Even a modern-sized 30,000hd feedlot with an annual turnover of two needs to find at least 1,000 cattle per week just to refill their pens. Large feeding companies with multiple yards and capacity of 200,000-hd or more need to secure, on average, about 8,000 feeder cattle every week. Just think about those logistics! Virtually none of them want to re-fill pens with 15 or 20-hd groups. They want load lots, period. For some, a single load offering barely gets their attention. They’d rather make deals on multiple loads all rolled into one transaction. Feedlots rely on somebody else to put the small groups together, co-mingle them, sort and re-sort, deal with the crosscontamination that may occur with co-mingled cattle, etc. None of this happens without incurring cost and risk. Somebody has to tie up their capital, their time, use their equipment, facilities and feed, and usually take on significant risk to assemble a 50,000-lb. load of “marketable” feeder cattle made up of calves from many different sources and many different breeding and health programs. And since they cannot sell such cattle for a premium, they need to buy them cheaper in order to cover their costs and make a reasonable return on their capital and risk. In fact, there is an entire sub-industry within the beef industry that exists for this very purpose. They’ve been called everything from grow yards to backgrounders to stockers, even junk dealers, and the difference is the kind of cattle they handle, which is usually a function of the markets they have on the other end. Referring to this as a “sub-industry” does not imply that it is small. It is actually a large industry, and it might surprise people to realize the percentage of cattle that go through such a system. While there are no good data sources to compute a reliable number, it is realistic to postulate that at least half of all calves produced every year work through this system in one form or another on their way to a finishing feedlot. The pure demographics of the cow-calf sector almost guarantees that at least half the cattle must work through this system of re-packaging before they are loaded onto a 50,000-lb. load and subsequently unloaded at a feedlot. The graph to the right shows the demographics of herd size and the proportion of the total beef cow herd that is held by operations of different sizes. The demographics have changed slightly over time, but it has been true for decades that nearly one-half of all beef cows in the U.S. are in herds of fewer than 100 cows (based on 2017 data, it is 46 percent). Another 37 percent are in herds of 100 to 500hd, with an average size of 184 within this group. The national average herd size in 2017 was 43.5 cows. If we assume a 550-lb. average for calves, a 50,000-lb. load requires 91 calves to fill the load. If we assume that a top-dollar load of calves is one where all calves are genetically similar, are the same gender, and they have been sorted for size with the
outliers sorted off, even an optimist would conclude that it takes a cow herd well above 200 cows with an extremely tight calving season, a disciplined breeding plan, and exemplary management to fill a 91-hd load of same-sex, uniform calves. No matter how you crunch the numbers, well over half of the cows are in herds that simply cannot put together a full load of calves and, yet, hope to receive the full-load price. As illustrated below, the demographics of the cow-calf sector virtually require that an extra middleman be involved with a large percentage of calves. Particularly, to get them repackaged into groups that are large enough to fill a load and get a feedlot interested in bidding full market price for the cattle. This has been true for many decades and will likely hold true for many more. The economic factors that have encouraged larger feedlots at the expense of smaller farmer-feeder lots show no signs of changing and, as a result, feedlots will continue to demand load-lots or multi-load lots of feeder cattle. Upon hearing this story, some people would respond by saying that small producers are “hobby farmers” anyway. It’s easy to stereotype smaller producers into a category. They don’t use good genetics, they don’t have good health programs, and some don’t even castrate their bull calves. They don’t know what a good critter is and probably don’t care to learn – and they’ll never change. That’s a pretty unfriendly label but, let’s be honest, it is partly true. There are plenty of “junk cattle” in the market. But it is also true that there are plenty of good cattle – or really good cattle – that come in small groups and are being grossly undersold. I saw a guy at a bull sale last fall spend $10,000 for a very impressive and strong-numbered Brangus bull. Come to find out, he has 33 cows and sells his calves at the local sale barn for the average price. One could argue that his high-dollar bull purchase is not a rational decision because he is not cashing in on his good calves. Obviously, he has his reasons for wanting a top end bull; maybe it’s nothing more than pride and some extra weaning weight. He’s not alone. He is making a positive contribution to the quality profile of the beef industry by taking (continued on page 11)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL BEEF COW HERD BY HERD SIZE
50 OR FEWER
51 to 99
100 to 500
Greater than 500
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years to a current average of 80 percent Choice or higher, it is pride in raising good cattle even though he isn’t being rewarded astounding that the price spread between Choice and Select for it in financial terms. Considering that more than half of the remains at record levels. In other words, 80 percent Choice or cattle in U.S. beef supply chain come from small herds, it seems higher is still not enough! The market wants even more Choice obvious to suggest that quality-oriented smaller producers need product. If it didn’t, the price spread between Choice and Select to team up and form a local coalition or quality-first “cattlemen’s would disappear. At the risk of overstating it a bit, we’re in a club.” Call it what you wish, but the idea is to pool their wellChoice beef market; everything else is hamburger. bred, well-managed cattle into groups that are large enough to The extreme price spread among calves that I predicted fill a load and at least have an opportunity to get top dollar. earlier is not just a quality grade issue. One can cross a Wagyu The need for this kind of collaboration among qualitywith a Watusi and produce Choice-grading beef (I suppose). oriented small producers has been obvious for a long time. Holstein steers grade Choice at a high rate, although with a This situation has existed for decades. Why hasn’t more been skinny ribeye that looks more like a pork chop. It takes more done? As usual, it boils down to than that. Feedlots want cattle that economics. Everybody sees the grow fast, convert feed efficiently, [Once] a feedlot finds a source of high-value, same picture, and they know stay healthy, produce high-yielding predictable cattle that hits targets and makes they’re selling their small groups carcasses, produce right-sized cuts money, the first question they’ll ask is, “How of good cattle for too little, but (think ribeye), and grade Choice or can I get more of them, lots more?” the price difference hasn’t been higher. And, very importantly, they so large that it stirred people to don’t want surprises. They want take action. I believe that the need to do SOMETHING different to be able to accurately predict growth rate, feed conversion, will become painfully apparent in the very near future. I believe cost of gain, finish weight and, ultimately, carcass quality and that the price spread between generic cattle and documented, yield. If they’ve negotiated a grid pricing formula with a packer, quality cattle will become so wide that it can no longer be they have targets to hit and if they miss the targets they are shrugged off. discounted. The value of predictability absolutely cannot be It’s not hard to understand why the historical price overstated. Finally, if you retain nothing else from this article difference might not be enough to tip things over. At the risk please remember this: once a feedlot finds a source of highof stereotyping, if the small producer on the edge of town is a value, predictable cattle that hits targets and makes money, the master electrician (or plumber, or dentist, or diesel mechanic, first question they’ll ask is, “How can I get more of them, etc.) who earns six figures, he probably hasn’t lost any sleep lots more?” worrying about the $50 or $75/hd that he has been giving up on his 30-hd of good calves because they are sold at the local average price along with the poor cattle produced by the other guy. If you add up the lost opportunity, it equals less than this six-figure-earner makes in a few days. He might be irritated by the lack of price rationale, but it simply doesn’t hurt enough to motivate him to take action. Can you picture the guy I’m stereotyping? Most of us can. Do you think the price difference will get his attention when it reaches $300/hd? How about $500? That’s where I believe it’s headed. Yes, that sounds extreme, but I predict that when top end calves get back to $2/lb., there will be same-weight calves selling for $1/lb. To help set the stage for this outlandish prediction: I have a friend who is a vice president and protein analyst for a huge bank. They finance cattle feeding operations to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, so they try to have a pretty well-polished crystal ball about where the protein (i.e. meat and poultry) industries are headed. A few years ago, he shocked the industry by suggesting that a portion of the cattle produced in the U.S. should simply be “hamburger cattle.” He was not referring to cull cows and bulls. He was referring to young cattle that are typically processed into steaks, roasts, and also hamburger. This was a shocking idea and he was roundly criticized – even lambasted. Looking back, I’m beginning to think he was right. As the quality grade mix has lurched upward the past few (continued from page 9)
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FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER 15
The IBBA is proud to bring you the CattleFax Trends Publication that is sponsored by Ritchie Industries. Look for this article each month in the Brangus Journal and Frontline. If you would like to learn more about CattleFax, please go to www.cattlefax.com.
With bull sale season ramping up, this is the time of the year when producers make one of the most important decisions for their operation. Having a plan for the future of your enterprise is critical to ensure the right choice is made on sale day. The selection that is made should be viewed as a long-term investment if an operation retains replacements. The bull that is purchased this year will likely have a measurable genetic impact for at least 10 years. Obviously, the present-day can’t be forgotten either, and the new genetics should complement the current cowherd to improve next year’s calf crop. The discussion regarding the importance of genetics and what they ultimately mean to your bottom line is not just anecdotal. There is data from various sources supporting that utilization of progressive genetics does in fact add value to the calf crop and should put more money in your pocket. After analyzing several years of data from Superior Livestock Auction,
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it was noted that lots with the “Superior Progressive Genetics” credential brought a premium compared to those without. From 2016 through 2019, steer calves sold on summer video for fall delivery averaged about $2/cwt higher than steers that did not have that attribute. Now, one could assume these lots are likely reputation-type calves due to the proven genetics that are utilized and marketed, along with other qualities that support stronger values. Nonetheless, the data implies genetics are important to calf buyers. According to the Superior analysis, an additional $11/hd for a 550-lb. steer would be added to your revenue. If a bull sires 25 calves, with half being steers, that’s an extra $130 to $140 per year. Assuming the bull provides service for at least three years, a producer would benefit more than $400 in total by selecting and marketing quality genetics. This scenario may be conservatively calculated for some operations and only accounts for steer calves. Heifer mates would likely garner a similar premium, and it would be difficult to quantify how much value is truly added to an operation if replacements are kept. Just like most things, if you want high quality, it will come at a cost. For the most part, the same can be said for genetics. Certainly, the highest priced bull does not always equate to a better bull, as there are thousands across the country that sell close to the national average, siring top-end calves. Regardless, results from the 2018 CattleFax Cow-Calf Survey show that high grossing producers, on average, pay over $700 more per bull than the bottom one-third. Calves from high return producers averaged
more than $300/hd above the lower return operations. There’s no doubt the stronger margins can be attributed to a multitude of different management practices that impact calf crop percent, like weaning weights, that ultimately add to the bottom line, but it is no coincidence these operations are willing to pay more for bulls. At the same time, fertility, growth, and many other production measurements start with a solid genetic base. Another way to dissect the survey results is to look at the relationship between the price of bulls, regardless of the type of producer, and the value of calves. The accompanying chart (on page 16) illustrates that over half of the survey participants purchased bulls in the $2,501 to $5,000 range. The main take away is the positive correlation between the price increments and the average value of the calf crop. For example, if an enterprise chooses to move up from the third to second highest tier and pay $6,000 rather than $4,000 for a bull, the data suggests the additional cost could be made up in one calf crop. Obviously, there is some variation around the averages, but if the bull sires 25 calves worth nearly $80/hd more, that’s an extra $2,000 in revenue. It probably isn’t necessary to go out and buy the high-seller from every sale in the area, but the odds favor it should pay off to be more generous when it comes to herd sire purchases. The work doesn’t stop at the conclusion of bull sale day, as marketing is a key component when utilizing progressive genetics. Promoting traits that bulls excel in should add value to the calf crop. Think about what the other segments in the industry demand. Did the selection criteria focus on growth, carcass merit, feed efficiency, etc.? Also, any historical performance records of calves with similar genetics will be beneficial. If heifers are sold or retained as replacements, what maternal traits were emphasized? Simply, inform buyers about your breeding program. Up to this point, most of the discussion has revolved around how genetics influence the income side of the equation and not what to expect from a cost standpoint. To no surprise, calf prices have a significant impact on the bull market. There’s a strong relationship between the value of five head of 550-lb. steer calves and the following year’s average bull prices as shown in the accompanying illustration. It is by no means perfect because cow-calf producers’ outlook of the cattle markets will also dictate their willingness to spend capital. Last year, the CattleFax U.S. 550-lb. steer price averaged roughly $164/cwt – equaling $4,520 for five steer calves. In theory, this should
set the base for average bull values in 2020. Many producers are more optimistic for 2020 than last year, which can definitely be justified considering the many headwinds the cow-calf segment faced in 2019. As a result, the bull market should be well supported at this level, with a wide range around it. Selecting the next herd sire can be stressful and overwhelming at times with thousands of bulls to choose from and loads of data to sort through. Your genetic supplier should provide help and point you in the right direction for your needs and wants. You can also help the seedstock producer by having objectives for your operation that lay out the expected improvements for the next several calf crops. The seedstock enterprise may even lend a hand when it comes time to market your calves. Representatives from breed associations would also be a valuable resource to consider when screening bull prospects. Whether your operation is strictly terminal, or you retain females, the bull battery is one of the most important aspects to being profitable. Genetic selection should encompass both visual appraisal and the evaluation of economically relevant expected progeny differences (EPD’s) to ultimately improve your bottom line. Most importantly, purchase bulls that fit your budget and work in your environment to maximize the genetic potential of the herd. CattleFax recently released the annual Cow-Calf Survey sponsored by Crystalyx. Over the last several years, this survey provided valuable insight into operations both regionally and across the country, with valuable benchmark data available for further analyses. A summary of the results will be sent to all who participate. The survey can be accessed by going to cattlefax.com, selecting the About tab at the top of the page, and then clicking 2019 Cow-Calf Survey on the sidebar.
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THE 50,000-LB. SOLUTION by Darrell Wilkes, PhD, International Brangus Breeders Association, Executive Vice President
The International Brangus Breeders Association (IBBA) is committed to the success of our commercial bull customers, large and small. Based on everything we know about Brangus genetics, which is based on hard data, we know these cattle will meet or exceed all the demands of high-end cattle feeders. Brangus are unique among the eared breeds in that they carry a strong dose of Angus genetics, which is the industry standard for high-grading cattle. We know that Brangus cattle will grow rapidly, stay healthy, and grade extremely well. That’s exactly what feedlots are looking for – and they want to buy them in load lots. For lack of a better term, we need to build a Brangus pipeline. We need a structured and organized way to collect Brangus-based feeder cattle from large, medium, and small herds, document their genetic value, utilize best practices for health and pre-feedlot management, and then offer them in load lots to high-end feedlots. We will seek relationships with feedlots who will either buy the cattle, partner with the producer, custom feed retained ownership cattle, and provide basic data back to the pipeline that can be used for education and program improvement. IBBA already has a few of the key tools needed. The first is the Igenity® Brangus DNA test. This is a DNA test designed collaboratively by IBBA and Neogen and is made specifically for Brangus-influenced commercial cattle. The Igenity Brangus test (otherwise known as the Brangus Profiler) tests for genetic markers associated with both maternal and terminal traits. This tool would be used by Brangus pipeline producers to benchmark the genetic level in their herds and to track genetic progress over time. Having this information would allow commercial producers to fine-tune their bull selection criteria to strengthen their herd’s genetic profile. When combined with feedlot and carcass data from partner feedlots, participating producers could create a very, very clear picture of the genetics of their herd. There is a hidden benefit in this process that goes beyond the ability it gives the producer to constantly improve the feedlot 20
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and carcass performance of his or her cattle. Namely, it could easily create a premium market for high-value replacement heifers that are excess to the replacements needed by a Brangus pipeline producer. IBBA has already established the Brangus Built™ tagging program which is recognized to some extent in the marketplace and has been shown to add value to cattle that carry the tag. It is only provided for cattle that are at least 50 percent Brangus or Ultra, in most cases, cattle that are sired by a registered Brangus, Red Brangus, Ultrablack, or Ultrared bull. Participants in the Brangus pipeline will use these tags to ensure that the Brangus brand stays with the cattle as they move through the system. IBBA will ensure that the tags meet the latest requirements for interstate shipment and will add an option for an electronic tag (EID) which are preferred by most feedlots and packers. There is a LOT of money slipping through the cracks. A lot of good cattle, especially from smaller herds, are being undersold because of the lack of an organized pipeline designed and operated particularly for Brangus influenced cattle. It is high time to step forward and address this blatantly obvious problem. IBBA (including the author of this article) is willing to help coordinate this process, but we need boots on the ground to actually make it happen. Below is a short list of the partners needed for the Brangus pipeline project. Quality-oriented grow yards or stocker operators. The pipeline needs people scattered across Brangus country with the facilities to receive small (or large) groups of cattle to get them started on feed. Whether the cattle are fed in bunks or put on grass is irrelevant; but having access to both is a plus. The pipeline will need operators in this sector who are techsavvy with sufficiently sophisticated recordkeeping, probably including the routine use of electronic identification. They need to be Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) certified. It would be ideal if they had the ability to purchase some of the cattle, although, it is probably better if the original producer owns the cattle (continued on page 22)
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(continued from page 20)
through this phase. After all, it is the original producer who is under-selling his cattle currently that is the intended primary beneficiary of this program. This group of partners could include Brangus seedstock producers who have the facilities and the resources to take in cattle – probably from their bull customers. They don’t necessarily need to handle thousands of cattle. If they could handle a few hundred, that’s good enough. If you are a grow yard or stocker operator and you want to move from commodity cattle to value-added cattle, please consider joining the Brangus pipeline.
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Brangus seedstock producers. These are the folks who are selling good bulls to customers, some of whom are certainly underselling their calves through the commodity markets. The Brangus pipeline needs you to inform your bull customers of the opportunity to join this valueadded system. In reality, it is the Brangus seedstock producers who need to be the front-line sales force for this project. Auction operators and cattle brokers. It will benefit this program to have relationships with people and companies who are already in the business of marketing cattle. These are people who are bonded, who have systems for complying with Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) filings, and a myriad of other “back office” competencies that are vital to the integrity of the envisioned pipeline. They also have pre-existing relationships with feedlots and those who buy cattle on feedlot orders. Some progressive auction market operators are already holding special sales of value-added cattle. They are, of course, motivated to get the highest price they can get for cattle that sell through their facilities. The pipeline could work with these progressive markets to hold special sales with the goal of attracting enough cattle to capture the attention of valueadded buyers. This article describes a situation where there is DEMAND for a product, there is a SUPPLY of the product, but there is not an organized system to efficiently and effectively bring the suppliers and the buyers together. IBBA is highly motivated to help our commercial bull customers prosper as the cattle industry transitions from a commodity business to a business comprised of value-added supply chains. We intend for the Brangus pipeline to be one of the most successful value-added supply chains in the industry. Please consider partnering with us to make this happen. The project, or something very similar, is part of the IBBA’s Long Term Plan. The leadership for this effort will come from the chairman of the IBBA Commercial Marketing Committee. The incoming IBBA President will be looking for a person to chair this effort. Even if you don’t have time to chair the committee, we need active committee members, too. If this is appealing to you, please call or email Darrell Wilkes, dwilkes@gobrangus.com, at the IBBA office.
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THE VALUE OF BRINGING
BEEF QUALITY ASSURANCE
Beyond Producers
In mid-October, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, took the formally producer-facing Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) program and shared it with consumers, influencers, the supply chain, and media for the first time. The decision to introduce these non-producer audiences to the BQA program came out of several market research insights, including the large number of consumers who say they consider when and how their food is raised when making a meal decision. In addition, research consistently shows that animal welfare is by far the top concern consumers have about beef production, an issue BQA directly addresses. Research also found that when introduced to the BQA program, at least 50 percent of consumers said simply knowing about it was enough to alleviate some of their beef production concerns. When evaluating the campaign as a whole, it appears to have positively impacted consumer perceptions of beef production. Specifically, measurable increases were apparent for several key attributes including, “Is raised humanely,” “You trust the people that raise the animals,” and “Is produced in an environmentally friendly way.” Additional evidence of the campaign’s success in reaching key audiences includes an increase in BQA certifications. This
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can partially be attributed to coverage of the campaign by cattle industry media outlets. Feature articles in prominent industry publications, like BEEF and Drovers, helped reinforce producerfacing BQA advertising efforts. While BQA verified certifications have been on a steady uptrend for several years, online certifications during October and November, the key months of the campaign, were the highest ever recorded for those months, totaling nearly 10,000. BQA was introduced to non-producer audiences via integrated digital marketing and communication efforts, including a new video and audio ads from Beef. It’s What’s for Dinner., bringing the BQA program to life by highlighting how cattle farmers and ranchers across the country raise cattle under BQA guidelines. Checkoff-funded digital ads launched in midOctober across national, top-tier platforms including YouTube, Hulu, Spotify, iHeart Radio, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. Since launching, the digital efforts have garnered more than 11 million video views, 10.5 million audio listens, and nearly four million social media engagements. These ad results delivered more than 58.6 million media impressions – a significant value for producer Checkoff investments. Consumer earned media was also a focus of the campaign. As part of these efforts, a press release was distributed, media
briefings were conducted, and a national radio media tour was coordinated. The press release was distributed nationally and published in 146 outlets, reaching an audience of more than 78 million. A week later, Josh White, Executive Director of producer education at NCBA, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, participated in 16 back-to-back radio interviews. Those 16 interviews aired more than 700 times and reached more than 22 million consumers. Another very successful aspect of the campaign was communicating it to supply chain partners by sharing paid trade media articles that drove registrations for a webinar where retail, foodservice, packer, processor, and manufacturer partners could learn more about BQA and the new consumer-facing campaign. There were more than 150 total registrants for the webinar, with more than half of these registrants tuning in for the November 20 webinar. This represents a higher than average participation rate for this type of webinar. The webinar reminded participants that today more than 85 percent of the beef supply in the U.S. comes from a BQA certified farmer or rancher and that NCBA, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, can be a resource for supply chain questions on all things beef. When it came to influencers and advocates, campaign assets, like the videos and online advertisements, were shared with more than 15,000 Masters of Beef Advocate (MBA) graduates. These graduates could also take an online quiz to test their BQA knowledge. Additional BQA-focused content was published by Beef Expert Bureau members. Blog and social media posts answered frequently asked questions about what really goes on in cattle ranching
and addressed cattle care. Work with additional influencers will continue, as a series of videos will be released this spring to introduce chefs to BQA through ranch visits. For more than 30 years, the beef community has participated in the BQA program to ensure U.S. beef is produced under science-based animal care standards, and striving for the safest, highest-quality meat. Introducing consumers and other non-producer audiences to BQA is part of continuing efforts to educate consumers on where their beef comes from and the many reasons why consumers can feel great about purchasing and consuming it. Elevating and highlighting BQA will remain part of ongoing marketing and communication efforts by NCBA, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff.
FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER 27
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HEIFER SELECTION: THE ROAD TO PROFITABILITY by Brad Wright, Ranch Hand Analytics
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S
electing the correct replacement heifers is the single-most allows a breeder to omit testing on obvious culls, but also gives important production factor affecting profitability of a beef time to receive results prior to a yearling evaluation. For most seedstock producers, heifers can be evaluated operation. Heifers that are slow to breed, or worse, fail to breed in their first breeding season are set on a path to negatively at yearling prior to the start of breeding. However, many commercial producers will do this final phenotypic evaluation affect your bottom line for the rest of their lives. Commercial at the start of breeding. For those producers that are collecting producers that make their living off the backs of every factory yearling weights and ultrasound carcass data, this can also in their pasture depend upon the seedstock breeders they buy be a good opportunity to do reproductive tract scoring and their bulls from to have the same emphasis on fertility that they pelvic measurements. Culling of heifers with unsatisfactory do. The heifers you pick today could impact the production and genetics of your herd for at least the next eight to 10 years, and a reproductive tracts or pelvic area can save cost on non-breeders and those prone to calving difficulty. This is also a good breeder cannot be profitable with a sub-fertile herd. There are many opportunities to narrow down the selection opportunity to identify heifers that do not meet the producer’s of replacement heifers, starting at the breeding of their dams. specifications for performance traits such as ultrasound ribeye Based on matings, sire EPDs, and production history of the dam, area or intramuscular fat. These underperforming heifers can a breeder can already have a predetermined set of calves that either be culled at this time or bred but marked for sale as will be considered for replacement heifers. While fertility traits bred heifers. In order to put selection pressure on fertility, the breeding are lowly heritable, the heritability is not zero, which means season must be kept as short as possible. The L.R. Sprott data that fertility can be selected for based on the breeding values suggested a max of 70 days, but that was in a natural service of the parents. If replacement heifers are to be kept, careful scenario that should allow all females three opportunities to consideration should be paid to the genetic parameters that a breed. With the use of estrus synchronization and artificial breeder wants in the next generation. Weaning is the first real opportunity to evaluate heifers for insemination, this breeding season could be reduced to 50 their own merits. Structure, disposition, frame, and weaning days with the same expectation of three opportunities to breed. weight are easily evaluated at this time. Early research by L.R. Determining the length of the breeding season could also vary Sprott indicated that keeping 10 to 15 percent more than the if the opportunity to sell bred heifers exists. Under this scenario, desired number of replacements was optimum to meet needs the selection decision is based more on length of pregnancy at after palpation without palpation versus a simple adding too much cost of evaluation of pregnant Any heifer that did not breed in the development. However, versus open. first 60 days of the breeding season Cutting cost is the Bruce Carpenter outlined easiest way to improve in a 2018 presentation that should be sold. profitability. With that in it could be economical to -Brad Wright mind, it is important to keep almost all heifers if palpate within 60 to 90 days the producer had the ability of the end of the breeding season. With a short breeding season, to market bred heifers later that do not meet the final criteria the decision is easy; if a heifer is open, she should be culled. The to stay as replacements. The best method will be dependent on easiest time in a female’s life to get pregnant is as a heifer--if she each operation and their ability to cheaply raise weaned heifers fails here, she will be a problem for the rest of her life and can to the target breeding weight. This may also depend on feed never be profitable. It is important to be diligent and unwavering prices and current calf markets that can fluctuate year-to-year. in culling protocols. Human nature is to come up with excuses A sound understanding of costs and potential markets allows a and reasons why a “special heifer” should get another chance, breeder to make the best decision for their operation at but it has been proven in multiple research studies over the last this point. Also, at weaning, weight is a natural and objective method 50 years that an open heifer will never be profitable. of evaluating heifers but comes with several contradictory For those producers that choose to have a longer breeding season, females can be sorted three ways at palpation: outcomes. The heaviest heifers will be easier and cheaper to replacements, short bred heifers to be sold, and open heifers to reach a target breeding weight of 65 percent of mature weight, be culled. Any heifer that did not breed in the first 60 days of the but selecting by weight alone will also increase mature cow weights, which can decrease cow herd efficiency and profitability breeding season should be sold. These heifers are sub-fertile and do not contribute to the bottom line of a profitable operation. through increased maintenance requirements. With the emergence of new DNA technology, there is In 2013, research by Cushman showed that heifers that calve an opportunity to identify specific pedigrees in multi-sire in the first 21 days of the calving season breed up at two to five situations. There are also commercially available tests that may percent higher rate for the rest of their life. Sprott data showed lend insight into the growth and fertility traits of potential that heifers that calve in the first 21 days of the season produce replacements. If a breeder wants to consider this information, calves that can average 20 to 50 pounds more than their (continued on page 35) weaning is an optimum time to do this testing. This timing
“
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Quail Valley ad
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(continued from page 33)
Literature Cited
Carpenter, Bruce. Texas A&M University. Selection and Development contemporaries for the rest of their lives. U.S. Meat Animal Strategies for Heifers on Rangeland. August 29, 2018. Accessed Research Center data showed that heifers calving in the first 21 1/10/2020. days of the calving season lasted, on average, an extra year in Cushman, R. A., L. K. Kill, R. N. Funston, E. M. Mousel, and G. A. Perry. the herd before coming up open than those heifers that calved 2013. “Heifer calving date positively influences calf weaning weights late for their first calf. And finally, in 2001, Sprott data showed through six parturitions.” J. Anim. Sci. 91: 4486–4491. Sprott, L. R. and T.R. Troxel. “Management of Replacement Heifers 10 to 14 percent increase in return on investment per female for High Reproductive and Calving Rate.” AgriLife Extension B-1213. that calved in the first 21 days of the calving season. This data exemplifies the importance of putting selection pressure towards Accessed 1/10/2020. Wilkes, Darrell. 2007. “From heifer calf to first preg-check.” Presented to those heifers that calve early in the calving season. Idaho Cattle Association 6/20/2007. Calving early is vital for success in the next phase of production. Breeding as a heifer should be the easiest opportunity to get pregnant but breeding back while nursing their first calf is the hardest time in a cow’s life to become pregnant. Those that calve early in the season have a longer postpartum interval before being required to breed back - especially if a producer staggers their breeding season to allow an extra 20 to 30 days for first calf cows to breed back with the rest of the cow herd. Those calving earliest should have the best opportunity to re-breed. Even though they are now cows, the final determination on whether a coming three-year-old gets to enter the primary herd or not, comes at palpation after breeding for their second calf. This should 30G also coincide closely with weaning of their MISS CFC COMMANDER first calf. After evaluation of their first Selling MARCH 7, 2020 AT THE calf ’s performance and palpation results, GENETIC EDGE XXV SALE identification of those cows that are set up to be the most profitable becomes obvious. CED BW WW YW M TM CEM SC REA IMF Culling can be a hard thing to do, but .14 4.3 0.9 33 64 9 25 3.2 .78 .48 profitability is dependent on building a herd that can calve consistently for as long as possible. In a presentation several years ago, that I wish I could remember and give due credit, it was stated that profitability was based on five parts fertility, three parts weight, and one part whatever a breeder wants to specialize in. That is a 56 percent emphasis on fertility, because CFC MISS MAIN EVENT 30E SUHN'S MISS AUGUSTAS 30B9 if a cow does not have a calf, none of the Dam is super TJM Main Event daughter. Pictured Grand dam is our lead donor at Cross F and full as yearling, carbon copy of her daughter! sister to Cavender sire, Trail Boss. rest matters. A 33 percent emphasis on growth, because most markets are still based on weight. And finally, 11 percent emphasis on whatever a breeder thinks is important to their market. Producers often PERFORMANCE THAT SHOWS spend a lot of time trying to determine Joe & Melanie Fuller and hone the 11 percent and forget about Ben & Trish Fuller Willow City, Texas the things that make the biggest impact Joe Cell: 979.255.7747 on profitability. Put simply, strict heifer CFC MISS BIG STEP 803G2 selection protocols can put any breeder on Watch for her at the TBBA spring sale in Salado, a path to profitability. Texas on April 4, 2020
CROSS F CATTLE
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The International Brangus Breeders Association (IBBA) is embarking on a very ambitious project that will have enormous benefits for everyone who relies on Brangus genetics to profitably produce high quality beef. IBBA is seeking relationships with commercial producers to conduct a comprehensive “birth-to-beef ” test of the breed’s most promising sires. In brief, IBBA and participating bull owners will provide semen at no cost and will help cover other costs of synchronizing and breeding commercial cows, in exchange for cooperation from commercial producers in collecting data and working with IBBA to place the calves from this project into partner feedlots. All steer calves will be fed and harvested with recovery of performance data and carcass data which will be shared with cooperating producers. IBBA desires to feed and harvest the steer calves resulting from this project while encouraging that the heifer mates remain with the cooperators and, subsequently, enter the cooperator cowherds. This is a rare opportunity for a commercial producer to build a cowherd based on the most highly and comprehensively proven sires in the breed. Our goal is that many cooperators who participate in 2020 will still be participating in 2030 and beyond. It is a long-term investment in the Brangus breed that will help set the stage for long-term growth and enhanced prosperity for everyone who uses Brangus genetics. Below are some of the key factors to consider in determining if cooperation in this project fits your operation: • Fixed-time AI is preferred in most cases. This involves several trips through the chute over a 10-day period but eliminates the need for heat detection. In order to reduce stress and get the highest possible conception rates, good working facilities are essential. • Cows should be a minimum of 45 days post-partum when the synchronization protocol is started (55-days post partum when they are bred). • Heifers are the easiest group to synchronize and breed (no calf sorting involved), and are acceptable for use in this project, but there may be a limited number of proven calving-ease sires to be tested so anyone wanting to utilize heifers should sign up early. • Adequate body condition is essential to any AI breeding 38
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• • • • • • • • • • •
program. Cows and heifers should be in a body condition score of 5.0 or better. Ideal calving season is February - April for spring calving herds and September - November for fall calving herds. Calving ease scores will be collected by the cooperators. Actual birth weight recording is not required. Calf tagging is required only to differentiate AI sired calves from natural service calves. All other identification required to connect calves with their sire will be done with DNA samples. Calves destined for the feedlot must be pre-conditioned and, if possible, held for 45-days post-weaning. Weaning should occur between 170 and 230 days of age. One hundred and fifty (150) head is the practical minimum number of cows/heifers per cooperator to be AI bred. If two bulls are used in a 150-head group, assuming 50-55% conception, this should produce close to 20 steers per sire which is the practical minimum. IBBA will identify up to two feedlots where the cattle will be fed. In order to get the best comparisons amongst sires, it is desirable to feed at least 200 project steers per feedlot. IBBA will do everything possible to secure a competitive bid on those calves that cooperators wish to sell. Otherwise, cooperators are welcome to, even encouraged to, retain ownership through the feeding phase. IBBA will cover the cost of carcass data collection, including the cost of extracting a rib steak from each carcass for tenderness testing. IBBA will pay the cost of DNA testing. IBBA will work with cooperators to pool calves in central locations so that full loads are delivered to the feedlot(s). IBBA will arrange for cooperators to visit the feedlots and packing plants where the cattle will be fed and harvested.
There is no denying that participation in this project will require extra effort on the part of cooperators. The trade-off is the education that comes from participation and, perhaps most importantly, the quality of replacement females that the cooperators will have as a result of using top notch AI sires in this project. Over several years of participation, the accumulation of “genetic equity” in the form of replacement females will be significant.
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Salacoa Valley
FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER 41
FUNCTION•MATERNAL•POWER TCF INTEGRITY 13C R10304130 • DOB: 1/12/2015 DDF • Homo Black Sire: CCR Integrity 355S4 Dam’s Sire: CCR Pathfinder 34U2 g Sires tremendous length of side
and front end.
g Calving ease for use on heifers. g Excellent docility.
Semen Available $40/unit Registered Use $20/unit Commercial Use
TCF INTEGRITY 13C TCF RAPID REWARD 145Z3 R10243006 • DOB: 9/21/2012 DDF • Homo Black Sire: BRB RapidReward 99W11 Dam’s Sire: CCR Integrity 2716S6 g Combines efficiency and natural
fleshing ability with thickness, muscle, sound structure and feet quality. g Excellent docility. Sires pounds in the right package.
TCF RAPID REWARD 145Z3 JOIN US ON February 14-15, 2020 –Alabama Cattlemen’s Convention and Trade Show, Renaissance Hotel & Montgomery Convention Center, Montgomery, Alabama. February 28-29, 2020 – Mississippi Cattlemen’s Association Convention and Trade Show, Bost Convention Center on campus of Mississippi State University, Starkville. October 17, 2020 – Town Creek Farm Bull Sale & Commercial Brangus Bred Heifer Sale at the ranch near West Point, Mississippi
3 Quality Assurance always comes first. Total Commitment
Since 1993 42
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TOWN CREEK FARM
Milton Sundbeck, Owner • Office 662.494.5944 32476 Hwy. 50 East, West Point, Mississippi 39773-5207 Joy Reznicek 205.399.0221 • Joy@TownCreekFarm.com Clint Ladner 662.812.8370 • Cladner@TownCreekFarm.com www.TownCreekFarm.com
Semen Available $40/unit Registered Use $20/unit Commercial Use
Col. Luke Mobley Auctioneer Livestock Marketing 205.270.0999 | www.LukeMobley.com
GOBRANGUS.COM
INTERNATIONAL BRANGUS BREEDERS ASSOCIATION MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION Junior Membership: ______________
Junior DOB: ______________
Senior Membership: ______________
Member Name: ____________________________________________________________________________________ Ranch Name: ______________________________________________________________________________________ Address: __________________________________________________________________________________________ City: ___________________________ State: ___________________________ Zip: ___________________________ Phone: ________________________________________
Alt Phone: ________________________________________
Email: _________________________________________
Alt Email: ________________________________________
Number of Bulls: ________________________________
Number of Females: ________________________________
Senior membership is $125 annually, junior membership is $25. Please include a check and mail to the IBBA office at PO Box 809, Adkins, TX 78101.
Date: ______________________
FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER 43
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2020
CALENDAR
F R O N T L I N E
FEBRUARY 5-7 Cattle Industry Convention & NCBA Trade Show, San Antonio, Texas 6 Florida State Fair Open Brangus Show, Tampa, Florida 10 San Antonio Livestock Exposition Open Brangus Show, San Antonio, Texas 10 Ad Reservation Deadline for March Brangus Journal 12 San Antonio Livestock Exposition All Breeds Bull and Female Sale 13 Martin-Bruni Cattle 6th Annual Spring Bull Sale, San Saba, Texas 17-18 GENETRUST Easy Access Online Video Auction 26-28 U.S. Livestock Genetics Export Annual Meeting, Franklin, Tennessee 28-29 IBBA Staff Hits the Road with Macee Prause, Tennessee 29 Hunt’s H+ Brangus Bull and Female Sale, Calhoun, Georgia MARCH 5 Annual IBBA Membership Meeting, Room 202/203 1:00 PM, Houston, Texas 5 Annual IBA Membership Meeting, Houston, Texas 5 Red Carpet Frozen Genetics Sale, Smart Auctions Online 6 Houston International Livestock Show Open Brangus Bulls, Houston, Texas 6 Doguet’s Diamond D Frozen Genetics Online Sale 7 Houston International Livestock Show Open Brangus Females, Houston, Texas 7 Genetic Edge XXV Sale, Houston, Texas 10 Ad Reservation Deadline for April Brangus Journal 14 Louisiana Brangus Breeders Bull Sale, Alexandria, Louisiana 21 Mound Creek Ranch Bull & Female Sale, Leona, Texas 24 GENETRUST at Suhn Cattle Company Sale, Eureka, Kansas 27-29 Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Convention, Fort Worth, Texas 28 West Texas Brangus Breeders Sale, Abilene, Texas 28 Oklahoma Brangus Association Spring Sale, McAlester, Oklahoma APRIL 1 3 4 8 10 10 15-24 17-18 18 25
IBA and IRBBA Scholarship Applications Due Texas Brangus Breeders Annual Meeting, Salado, Texas Texas Brangus Breeders Sale, Salado, Texas Stockman’s Choice Genetic Online Sale IBBA Office Closed for Easter Ad Reservation Deadline for May Brangus Journal World Brangus Congress, Corrientes, Argentina Doguet’s Diamond D Ranch Sale, Poteet, Texas Super American Sale, Bloomington, Texas GENETRUST at Cavender Ranches Sale, Jacksonville, Texas
MAY 9 30
Cut Above Brangus Sale, Cullman, Alabama IRBBA Annual Meeting and “Divas in Red” Sale, TAMU Beef Center, College Station, Texas
FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER 45
Index
ADVERTISING
American Marketing Services................................................................................................................................................... 10, 14, 34, 40, 41 Bovine Elite, LLC.................................................................................................................................................................................................43 Briggs Ranches.....................................................................................................................................................................................................41 Cavender Ranches......................................................................................................................................................................................... 24-25 Clark Cattle Services............................................................................................................................................................................................43 Cross F Cattle.......................................................................................................................................................................................................35 Cross N Farms......................................................................................................................................................................................................19 Doguet Diamond D Ranch...............................................................................................................................................................................IFC Dotson, Wes..........................................................................................................................................................................................................43 DVAuction..........................................................................................................................................................................................10, 14, 18, 41 Elgin Breeding Services, LLC.............................................................................................................................................................................43 Farris Ranching Company..................................................................................................................................................................................22 Genetic Edge XXV Sale.............................................................................................................................................................. 14, 19, 23, 34, 35 GENETRUST...........................................................................................................................................................................................18, 24-25 GKB Cattle............................................................................................................................................................................................................36 Harris Riverbend Farms......................................................................................................................................................................................41 Hi Point Sales + Marketing.................................................................................................................................................................... IFC, 7, 44 Ideal Video Productions......................................................................................................................................................................................14 Igenity Brangus....................................................................................................................................................................................................21 L.G. Herndon, Jr. Farms, Inc..............................................................................................................................................................................23 Lack-Morrison.....................................................................................................................................................................................................11 Lambert, Doak.....................................................................................................................................................................................................43 Louisiana Bull & Commercial Female Sale.......................................................................................................................................................10 Marshall Farms............................................................................................................................................................................................... 24-25 Mid South Cattle Company..................................................................................................................................................................................7 Mobley, Luke........................................................................................................................................................................................................43 Mound Creek Ranch..................................................................................................................................................................................... 29-31 Oak Creek Farms................................................................................................................................................................................................BC Oakley, Lakin........................................................................................................................................................................................................43 Oklahoma Brangus Association.........................................................................................................................................................................13 Pennington Seed..................................................................................................................................................................................................28 Phillips Ranch......................................................................................................................................................................................................40 Quail Valley Farms...............................................................................................................................................................................................34 Reagan, Terry.......................................................................................................................................................................................................43 Ritchie...................................................................................................................................................................................................................15 Salacoa Valley Farms...........................................................................................................................................................................................41 Santa Rosa Ranch...................................................................................................................................................................................................3 Smart Auctions...................................................................................................................................................................................................IFC Spanish Ranch......................................................................................................................................................................................................28 Star G Ranches.....................................................................................................................................................................................................12 Suhn Cattle Co.....................................................................................................................................................................................................18 Town Creek Farms...............................................................................................................................................................................................42 VitaFerm............................................................................................................................................................................................................ IBC West Texas Brangus Breeders Assn....................................................................................................................................................................44 Westway Feed Products.......................................................................................................................................................................................37 46
SPRING 2020
FRONTLINE BEEF PRODUCER 47
48
SPRING 2020