State Liberals under challenge

By Grahame Lynch

With less than two weeks to go before the March 25 NSW state election, local Liberal MPs are fighting a rearguard action to sure up their support base in the face of twin challenges from an ascendant Labor and the independent movement.

With NSW Labor placing well against the Coalition at a state-wide level in polls, there are strong expectations of swings to Willoughby candidate Sarah Griffin and North Shore candidate Godfrey Santer. Also presenting a strong challenge to the Liberal incumbents are high-profile Willoughby independent Larissa Penn and North Shore challengers Helen Conway and Victoria Walker. Adding to the contest is a spritely campaign from the Greens’ James Mullan.

In North Shore, which covers the Mosman LGA and most of North Sydney LGA south of Falcon St and Military Road, sitting Liberal MP Felicity Wilson is defending a 61-39% margin.

As in 2019, Wilson is facing challengers from both independents and the Greens and Labor.

In that election, independent Carolyn Corrigan placed second with around 9,000 primaries but only scored about 6,000 preferences from the eliminated candidates to end up with 15,000 votes, way short of Wilson’s 21,000.

Teal-backed independent Helen Conway is regarded as the main challenger this time, but her immediate goal is to score more primaries than

Labor and the Greens, and attempt to score enough of their preferences to close the gap on the Liberals. Her task has been assisted by the decision of both the Greens and Labor to give her their second preference, and not without some rancour from party members in the case of the latter, who lament that the independent isn’t returning the favour and isn’t entitled to favouritism.

STRONG LABOR POLLING: Labor polled strongly in a published opinion survey late last year—at 29% of the vote—with an unnamed independent scoring 23%. A new Climate 200 poll, reported in the Daily Telegraph but unseen but the Sun, had Labor sliding back to 17% and the independent, now named as Conway, on

18%. Conway likely needs to lift to at least 6,000 votes or 12% behind Wilson’s primary, at worst, to be assured of enough preferences to overtake her, assuming she pulls ahead of Labor which is not a given. Another independent, Victoria Walker, is also running on a similar set of values and policies, which further complicates the picture for Conway’s trajectory.

Wilson has received a boost with the decision of intending independent candidate and former Mosman mayor Simon Menzies not to run.

Menzies had earlier indicated an intention to run on a pro-Beaches Link tunnel platform, in protest against the government’s decision to

To page 2