A Formula for Royals Wins

by John Unrein

Bill James is a noted baseball author and the father of Sabermetrics (Society for American Baseball Research). The Boston Red Sox employ him as a senior advisor on Baseball Operations.

His use of data to make predictions and decisions within the game has widely been recognized as pioneering. The native of Holton, Kansas had a recent tweet related to the Royals that encapsulates the importance data has had on baseball in recent decades.

“When George Brett made a run at .400 in 1980, that was a big deal because no one had hit .400 in 39 years. That was 39 years ago,” James tweeted.

What is even more staggering about Brett’s run at immortality in trying to hit .400 in 1980 is not that he ended up with a .390 season average, but rather his on base percentage that season was .454. Brett would get on base approximately half of the time he came up to bat.

This would contribute to Brett going on to be an All-Star that year along with being named American League Most Valuable Player. It no doubt was also a cog in the wheel that helped the Royals get to the 1980 World Series.

James has emphasized throughout his body of work how important on base percentage is in contributing to the probability of winning. It’s hard to win games if you don’t score runs.

The probability of scoring runs increases by the number of baserunners you produce in a game. One of James earliest formulas on win probability was that runs scored divided by runs scored plus runs allowed would yield your winning percentage probability.

The Kansas City Royals had a .338 On Base Percentage through the first week of the season. This ranked them at 9th place within Major League Baseball for OBP. It’s a small sample size that’s significantly above their 2018 average of .305 OBP.

During this same 2019 span the Royals have compiled 16 total runs in their opening season series with the Chicago White Sox while allowing 15 runs. It yields a suggested winning probability of 51.6% moving into the next series of games for the Royals.

An emphasis by the organization has been put on the Royals getting back to their roots of speed and defense for the 2019 season. Hopefully, the organization and Quality Control Coach Pedro Grifol has a radar lock for On Base Percentage and its importance to contributing to wins.

Royals hitting coach Terry Bradshaw has emphasized the significance of two strike hitting, being a clutch hitter with runners on base, and not missing your pitch early in the count throughout spring training.

The Royals getting on base with high frequency will be key in leading to wins just as much as their ability to steal bases and play good defense.

Upcoming Games:

Thursday, April 4th—12:10pm vs. Detroit Tigers @ Home

Saturday, April 6th—12:10pm vs. Detroit Tigers @ Home

Sunday, April 7th—12:10pm vs. Detroit Tigers @ Home