2017 scmp malaysia report

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Friday, December 22, 2017

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SPECIAL REPORT ¢

INSIDE: 11-PAGE SPONSORED SECTION IN COOPERATION WITH DISCOVERY REPORTS

MALAYSIA BUSINESS REPORT ECONOMY

MESSAGE

BRIGHT OUTLOOK Economy has seen robust growth over the past year, while inflation has moderated and the ringgit continues to strengthen against the US dollar. Reports by NAZVI CAREEM

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alaysia’s economic outlook is looking brighter with better-thanexpected growth figures , providing a boost to Prime Minister Najib Razak ahead of general elections in 2018. The controversy surrounding Malaysia’s state investment fund, 1MDB, which was reported to be 42 billion ringgit (HK$80.3 billion) in debt when the scandal first erupted in 2015, still lurks in the background as opposition forces led by former leader and ex-mentor Mahathir Mohamed seek to topple Najib. However, on management of the overall economy, Najib has a strong hand as Malaysia enjoys robust growth over the past year. The economy grew at a faster pace of 6.2 per cent in the third quarter, according to Malaysia central bank, Bank Negara, driven by domestic demand, particularly in the private sector. In addition, headline inflation moderated to 3.8 per cent because of lower transport inflation – particularly petrol prices – while the ringgit continues to strengthen against the US dollar. The 5.8 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter was already better than expected and the third-quarter results mean that Malaysia’s economy is growing at its fastest pace since the second quarter of 2014. Bank Negara said the economy was expected to register higher growth for 2017. “Given the continued strong performance in the third quarter, the Malaysian economy is on course to register growth that is close to the upper range of the official projection of 5.2-5.7 per cent,” the bank said. “Domestic demand is expected to support this expansion. On the external front, exports will continue to benefit from the favourable global demand conditions. “Headline inflation is expected to average at the upper end of the forecast range of 3-4 per cent for 2017 as a whole.” The ringgit has been one of the best-performing currencies in the region over the past year. The currency experienced a surge in November, appreciating 3.47 per cent month-on-month to around 4.09 to the US dollar by mid-December. AmBank Economics Research said that the ringgit could expect to strengthen in

Malaysia’s economy is expected to register high growth for 2017, near the top end of the officially projected 5.2-5.7 per cent. Photo: Tourism Malaysia

[Malaysia’s] economy has grown vibrantly in 2017 NATIXIS

2018 on the back of improving macro fundamentals and fiscal position, along with healthy consumer and business sentiment, potential normalisation of the policy rate and the currency’s general undervaluation. “With an undervalued ringgit – our fundamental analysis shows a fair value of 3.95 while the real effective exchange rate presents a fair value of 3.76 – there is still plenty of room for this laggard currency to gain momentum, it said.. “We expect Bank Negara Malaysia to consider reviewing its current monetary policy by factoring in a 25 bps [basis point] rate hike in January 2018 from its current rate of 3 per cent with

rates expected to normalise at 3.50 per cent,” it said. Global market research firm Natixis said the Malaysian government made two important moves in helping to sustain vibrant growth in 2017 – allowing the ringgit to depreciate and constraining the deficit. “Malaysia’s economic outlook has brightened, thanks to a rise of gradual oil prices and an uplift of global trade,” it said. “The economy has grown vibrantly in 2017 [real GDP growth rates averaged 5.9 per cent in the first three quarters],” it said. It added that the Malaysian authorities had committed the ringgit to depreciate, which would make exports far more attractive, but fuel inflation. However, Natixis said there might be a price to pay for fiscal consolidation in terms of investment in future growth, with the revenue ratio unlikely to recover materially. This may force the government to cut development expenditure further, though growth is expected to stay positive with Natixis projecting 5.4 per cent in 2018.

Natixis expects inflation to rise to 4.5 per cent in 2018 on the back of robust domestic demand and higher oil prices. “We expect the ringgit to outperform the rest of Asian currencies,” it said. “With robust growth along with inflation edging up, we expect the Bank Negara Malaysia to hike 50 bps to 3.5 per cent in 2018.” The company also flagged the general election as a potential obstacle. “Prime Minister Najib Razak is busy preparing for the general election – expected to be held in 2018 – by proposing a populous budget,” it said. “This limits policy space for longer-term development.” The central bank, too, is implementing several measures to curb capital flows. “Although it will likely prove effective at shoring up the currency and sheltering the financial sector from spillovers of capital flows, foreign investors are likely [to be] deterred in the short-term from investing in Malaysian securities.” In its quarterly reports, Bank Negara expressed concern about

the imbalances of the property market. It said supply-demand imbalances in the residential and commercial property markets have increased since the problem was first flagged by the bank two years ago. The bank said that there was an oversupply of non-affordable housing. “History has shown that excesses in the property market can pose risks to the wider economy,” it said. “Given that there are imbalances in both the residential and commercial property markets in Malaysia, this is a source of concern as the property sector has linkages to more than 120 industries, collectively accounting for 10 per cent of GDP and employing 1.4 million Malaysians. “Currently, the property market is characterised by an oversupply of non-affordable housing and idle commercial space, and conversely, an undersupply of affordable homes. “This situation could worsen if the current supply-demand conditions persist.”

It gives me great pleasure to be able to address you in the South China Morning Post’s “Malaysia Business Report”. This year was significant for Malaysia and Hong Kong, and publication of this report will help highlight areas of cooperation and opportunities that could be explored. For one, we witnessed the signing of the Asean-Hong Kong Free Trade Agreement during the 31st Asean Summit on November 12. This is a milestone for the Asean nations and Hong Kong as it is the 50th anniversary of the founding of the 10-member regional organisation. In conjunction with Malaysia and Hong Kong’s 20 years of relations, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s 3rd edition of “In Style. Hong Kong” was successfully held in Kuala Lumpur on November 7 and 8, where more than 40 exhibitors showcased Hong Kong brands in home electronics, gifts and premium, fashion accessories and watches and ecofriendly products. Malaysia’s Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute also successfully held the 9th World Chinese Economic Summit in Hong Kong on November 13 and 14, with participation of, among others, Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Minister of Transport Liow Tiong Lai. During the deputy prime minister’s keynote speech at the event he reiterated that Malaysia welcomes Hong Kong as a key investor for Asean. From January to September 2017, Malaysia ranked 10th among Hong Kong’s principal trading partners. For the same period, Malaysia was fourth among Asean nations in terms of trade relations with Hong Kong. In the “Belt and Road Initiative”, Malaysia is poised to become Hong Kong’s strategic partner in many areas, especially areas in which Malaysia excels, such as Islamic finance and halal food and products certification and logistics.

During the 13th World Islamic Economic Forum held in Sarawak, Malaysia, from November 21 to 23, Prime Minister Najib Razak highlighted that Malaysia was top for Islamic finance and secondplaced for halal travel and halal pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics in the Thomson Reuters report on the State of the Global Islamic Economy 2016/2017. Malaysia was recognised as the “best developed ecosystem for Islamic finance” and having “the strongest regulatory framework”. There is much potential for the development of Malaysia-Hong Kong trade and business relations. One such opportunity is in the expansion of Malaysia’s infrastructure, in particular, for projects that are underway including the East Coast Rail Line, Pan-Borneo Highway, SingaporeKunming Highway, Singapore-Kuala Lumpur high-speed rail, Johor’s Iskandar Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur’s Bandar Malaysia, Malacca’s “Melaka Gateway” and the Kuala Lumpur International Airport’s “Aeropolis” Digital Free Trade Zone Park. The KLIA Aeropolis DFTZ Park will be Alibaba’s first regional hub outside China and its groundbreaking ceremony in November was attended by Alibaba’s Jack Ma and Malaysia’s prime minister. I am sure that Hong Kong businesses and investors can find suitable partners and avenues of investment in Malaysia. I look forward to seeing further potential for partnerships and the deepening of engagement between Malaysia and Hong Kong and the Malaysian consulate in Hong Kong is always ready to help in this process. I hope many more Hong Kong enterprises will seize the opportunities that are available while Malaysia continues to develop in the years to come. Sirajuzzaman Mohamed Ariffin Consul-General of Malaysia to Hong Kong and Macau

POSITIVE PROSPECTS Business performance expectations in Malaysia, Oct 17 – Mar 18 Industry (agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and electric and water) +30.2 per cent Construction +24.0 per cent Wholesale and retail trade +26.1 per cent Services (hotels, transport, communications, finance, insurance, real estate, and information and communication technology) +32.1 per cent All sectors +29.9 per cent Note: Results obtained from quarterly Business Tendency Survey, covering 465 main establishments in Malaysia. Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia

CULTURE

Religious festivals mean ‘going home’ Malaysia boasts a diverse population in terms of ethnicity and the religions followed by its people. The country of almost 30 million is majority Muslim Malay, but there is a large proportion of Buddhists, Hindus, Christians, Sikhs and others, along with various tribal traditions followed by the indigenous people in the peninsula and Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah. The different races live side by side in peace and, while they don’t always understand each others’ beliefs and lifestyles, there is one aspect – apart from their nationality – that every Malaysian is aware of whenever a major religious holiday approaches – traffic chaos. The main religious holidays that afford the public two days off work are Eid-ul-Fitr, known as Hari Raya Eidal Fitri among the Malay Muslims, and the Lunar New Year that is followed by the Chinese and Buddhists. The Indian festivals of Deepavali and Thaipusam both

enjoy their own one-day public holiday, but whatever the occasion, they invariably involve the concept of balik kampung, which means “going home to your ancestral village”. With about 70 per cent of Kuala Lumpur’s 1.6 million population originating from other parts of the country, holiday time means massive traffic jams along the major highways and government roads, particularly when the days off are immediately before or after the weekend – which most of the time they are. Millions of vehicles are involved and motorists who choose to travel during peak times often undertake journeys of 12 hours or more when it usually takes about four hours. The government and police make regular announcements on social media about the latest traffic congestion points, while roadside rest stops do a thriving business. Hari Raya Eidal Fitri falls one day after the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan – the

ninth month of the Islamic calendar – during which adherents go without food and drink between sunrise and dusk. Officially, two days of public holidays are provided but festivities usually last for a month. After people return from their villages, households traditionally host an “open house” at least once during the month when the doors of their homes are open to family and friends, or even passers-by, to enjoy an outdoor buffet meal. The Lunar New Year is celebrated by the Chinese population of more than six million. Again, with two days of official holidays, it gives the entire population another reason for a balik kampung … and more traffic woes. The two weeks of Lunar New Year celebrations feature plenty of fireworks displays, especially in areas that have large Hokkien populations. While driving in Kuala Lumpur, or any other major city such as Johor Bahru or Penang, one can pass by colourful

mini-firework displays that spray into the night sky. In the past, one of the key preparations for Lunar New Year, for all Malaysians, was stocking up on food items because, with most of the businesses owned by ethnic Chinese, cities would go into shutdown for a few days while people headed back to their ancestral villages. However, with major hypermarkets such as Tesco, Giant and AEON Big staying open 24/7 all year round, it is no longer a tradition. Deepavali and Thaipusam are celebrated by Malaysia’s ethnic Indian Hindus – mostly Tamils. Deepavali, or the Festival of Lights, is celebrated either in October or November depending on the cycle of the moon. Thaipusam is held during the full moon of the 10th month of the Hindu calendar, which usually falls between midJanuary and mid-February. On the opening day of Thaipusam, devotees gather in

Malaysians celebrate Citrawarna, or Colours of Malaysia, in Kuala Lumpur in October. Photo: Tourism Malaysia their thousands to make a procession along Kuala Lumpur’s streets to the massive statue of Lord Murugan in the Batu Caves on the outskirts of the city. Many are dressed in colourful costumes with some

choosing to pierce their skins with spikes. Christmas is celebrated by more than 2.6 million people in Malaysia of various ethnic backgrounds, although unlike many other places, there is no

recognition of Boxing Day on December 26. Another one-day holiday is devoted to the birthday of the Buddha, with around 20 per cent of the country being Buddhists – the second biggest religion.


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