NEW NORMAL: EXTREME VELOCITY HAS RESHAPED THE WAY THE GAME IS SCOUTED, ANALYZED AND PLAYED
GAME CHANGER
PLUS
i HISTORIC VELOCITY FORCES MLB TEAMS TO SCOUT THE BAT FIRST AND FIND POSITION(S) LATER i POWER-CENTRIC MLB HITTING APPROACH TRICKLES DOWN TO MINORS AND COLLEGE
White Sox second baseman Nick Madrigal is one of the shortest players ever drafted in the first round
TEAMS TURN TO DATA, OFTEN AT THE EXPENSE OF EXPERTISE, IN THE NAME OF EFFECTIVENESS AND COST-EFFICIENCY
AND
i THE TOP 10 POPUP DRAFT PROSPECTS YOU NEED TO KNOW
SCOUTING PLAYERS FOR WHAT THEY CAN DO—AND NOT HOW THEY LOOK— GAINS MOMENTUM IN THE AGE OF ANALYTICS
JUNE 2021 | ON SALE UNTIL 07/06/21
JUNE
Leading Off JUNE 2021 VOLUME 41, ISSUE 06
NEW NORMAL 10. Talent Over Tradition The ability to better measure hitting attributes has increased teams’ comfort level when valuing players who don’t profile.
13. Game Changer New realities of baseball in the 2020s have placed new emphasis on how teams evaluate players.
The Cardinals’ Tommy Edman offers the defensive versatility that teams emphasize today so that they can stock their lineup with hitters best equipped to combat that day’s opposing pitcher.
15. The Shape Of Baseball The major league game is getting younger—and in some cases shorter and lighter.
17. Here’s The Catch Expectations for catchers could change overnight if an automated strike zone is implemented.
18. The State Of Scouting Data has in some cases edged out the expertise of scouts as teams strive for maximum effectiveness and cost efficiency.
21. A Rough Winter More than 150 scouting jobs were lost because of the pandemic and cost-cutting measures.
22. From Field To Booth Scouts are increasingly finding ways to share their knowledge of the game in the broadcast booth.
JUSTIN K. ALLER/GETTY IMAGES
24. Bombs Away
10
Home runs are being hit at near historic levels in college baseball, but this time the surge is not the result of equipment changes.
29. Trickle-Down Effect The trends are common across baseball as young players emulate the big league style of play. 3
JUNE Leading Off JUNE 2021 VOLUME 41, ISSUE 06
“We recruit guys with the ability to hit and strength in the bat . . . We’re not trying to turn every guy into a power hitter.”
25
ARKANSAS HITTING COACH NATE THOMPSON, REFERRING TO 5-FOOT-9 SECOND BASEMAN ROBERT MOORE AND HIS RAZORBACKS TEAMMATES
DRAFT
EXTRAS
46. Popup Prospects
06. Women In Baseball
The top 10 amateur prospects you need to know after they improved their stock this spring.
PROSPECTS SPOTLIGHT: Red Sox shortstop Jeter Downs finally gets to show his new organization what he can do.
NICK GONZALES
The long layoff reminds us that minor league players need repetitions to stay sharp.
08. Fantasy An all-star team of breakout prospects poised to build value in dynasty leagues.
48. Scout Spotlight
42
ON THE COVER
Dodgers scout Marty Lamb adds three players to his growing total of big leaguers.
NEW NORMAL: EXTREME VELOCITY HAS RESHAPED THE WAY THE GAME IS SCOUTED, ANALYZED AND PLAYED
41. Permission To Fly
GAME CHANGER
The number of stolen bases continues to decline, even as success rates climb.
PLUS
i HISTORIC VELOCITY FORCES MLB TEAMS TO SCOUT THE BAT FIRST AND FIND POSITION(S) LATER i POWER-CENTRIC MLB HITTING APPROACH TRICKLES DOWN TO MINORS AND COLLEGE
White Sox second baseman Nick Madrigal is one of the shortest players ever drafted in the first round
TEAMS TURN TO DATA, OFTEN AT THE EXPENSE OF EXPERTISE, IN THE NAME OF EFFECTIVENESS AND COST-EFFICIENCY
AND
MINORS
COLLEGE
HIGH SCHOOL
42. Answering The Bell
44. Walking Tall
45. Two-Way Wonder
What Opening Day roster assignments tell us about recent draftees.
Big Texas righthander Ty Madden has the Longhorns eyeing Omaha.
Bubba Chandler excels on the mound—and in every other athletic endeavor.
i THE TOP 10 POPUP DRAFT PROSPECTS YOU NEED TO KNOW
SCOUTING PLAYERS FOR WHAT THEY CAN DO —AND NOT HOW THEY LOOK — GAINS MOMENTUM IN THE AGE OF ANALYTICS
JUNE 2021 | ON SALE UNTIL 07/06/21
COVER PHOTO BY RON VESELY/GETTY IMAGES
ON DECK FOR JULY: The draft takes place in July for the first time. Our annual Draft Preview will get you ready with scouting reports, best tools evaluations, features on the top prospects and a first-round mock draft. 4
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
BRIAN WESTERHOLT FOUR SEAM IMAGES; TOM DIPACE
MAJORS
Lefthander Luke Hagerty cleared a major hurdle in a comeback attempt that fell short.
50. Cooper
35. NL Org Reports SPOTLIGHT: The Brewers are optimistic that shortstop Brice Turang’s power will continue to develop.
07. Phenom To Farm
COLUMN
30. AL Org Reports
Twins amateur scouting coordinator Brit Minder embraces the challenge of a 20-round draft.
Leading Off
Women In Baseball
ESTABLISHED 1981 - PO BOX 12877, DURHAM, NC 27709 - (800) 845-2726
MEET THE WOMEN WHO ARE BLAZING A TRAIL IN THE INDUSTRY.
A whole new adventure The Twins’ amateur scouting coordinator embraces the peculiarities associated with this year’s 20-round draft by ALEXIS BRUDNICKI
B
rit Minder loves the perspective that in-person scouting brings. The Twins’ coordinator of amateur scouting got her start with Minnesota seven years ago as an administrative assistant to the entire scouting department, where her role revolved around support. With progression and promotion, Minder transitioned into a more empowered role, helping the team’s evolution from a basic internal system to something much more advanced, its creation enveloping a large piece of her position.
But the most significant change to her current role has been in venturing out to games and having an opportunity to scout. “The reason was twofold,” Minder said. “I wanted to learn these things and thought I could be a value add given my playing experience and also my office experience—having some understanding being around conversations in the office and the way we think about risk and projecting players. “And the second thing was that as I was helping to build (the system), working with our developers, or as I’m talking with HR or accounting or the medical staff, I didn’t know what it felt 6
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
like to be a scout, so I was missing half the conversation. I really wanted to start scouting to inform and improve my office abilities and responsibilities and all of the things I do here.” In her scouting role, Minder loves bringing different pieces of the puzzle into the process. She acknowledges that this is not a novel idea, but it is her favorite part. “I like to go in with fresh eyes, see the player, write everything down that I think of—I write down a lot more stuff than most folks—and then I’ll go in and look at the questionnaires,” she said. “I’ll formulate ideas and theories on why is this happening, then I’ll look at the questionnaires and see maybe
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BRACE HEMMELGARN
Brit Minder brings different pieces of the puzzle together in her role for the Twins’ scouting department.
there was a grip change, or maybe his grandmother was (ill) in this period. There are a lot of causes for things that maybe we attribute to something else.” Beyond evaluation, Minder’s job revolves around the draft. Each January, as the department is preparing for the college season and in-person evaluation, she looks ahead to the upcoming selection process, working as a go-between for everyone from medical staff to the commissioner’s office. After each draft, Minder’s job turns to looking back at what happened, what could have been done better, compiling information, and creating a path forward. “Then there’s the actual draft, which is like an 11-day wedding,” she said. This year’s draft is a whole new adventure, with Minder battling the unknowns of whether the department might be able to gather the 45 or so people who are usually in the draft room, work virtually through the process, or somewhere in between—and plan for all three. “We also have to think about the culture of a draft room, and having an understanding of what people do between the times they’re working, and a lot of it relates to camaraderie,” Minder said. “A lot of that is talking about things that happen in the room that they didn’t like or have different thoughts about; there’s that undercurrent . . . That’s really challenging, trying to re-create some of the things that happen in the draft room, and the feelings.” Adding to the excitement and challenges of this year’s draft for Minder and her counterparts are the truncated minor league season, fewer affiliated teams and added depth to the available talent because of last year’s shortened draft and added eligibility for college players. “There has to be a clear picture of what you are and what you can add in this draft,” she said. “That’s challenging, and it takes some agency away from the scouts because we do have a more analytically driven approach for (lower-tiered) guys where you would insert the scouting feel and where that makes the difference . . . The bar has to be higher and you have to be more realistic, which is hard. Scouts are natural gamblers.” Q
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Leading Off
From Phenom To The Farm FORMER BALLPLAYERS REFLECT ON PRO SUCCESS AND FAILURE
GOING OUT ON TOP Luke Hagerty cleared a major hurdle in a comeback attempt that fell short by KYLE BANDUJO
One day, as he was on the verge of a big league job and preparing to throw live batting practice to the Marlins’ starting outfielders, the wheels came off. “For some reason, this one thought, ‘Hey, I hope you don’t hurt anybody,’ it was just something I said to myself. Everything spiraled from there,” Hagerty said. “It felt like a fuse went off— like somebody just turned a switch off with how I thought.” Instantly, Hagerty was gripped by what’s commonly known in sports as the yips. He lost the ability to throw a strike, or seemingly to even throw a baseball in the same zip code of where he hoped for it to land. He spent the rest of the spring battling what he hoped would be a temporary ailment, but nothing worked. He spent the next four years
Trap Toon by
PAUL TRAP
fighting for his career within his own mind— something that became a constant struggle, even in the “offseason.” “I didn’t leave. I didn’t have offseasons,” Hagerty said. “I went to the field every day to try to figure it out.” There would be glimmers of hope, but after being released by the Cubs and multiple independent league teams because of his inability to throw strikes, Hagerty left baseball behind. He finished his degree, got married, started a family and began training athletes. Hagerty opened his own training facility called X2 in the Phoenix area. Initially resistant to training baseball players, Hagerty relented, and eventually even began to play catch with some of his athletes. That was something he hadn’t been able to comfortably do when he was still playing.
ELSA/GETTY IMAGES
Luke Hagerty was on the cusp of fulfilling years of projection and promise. The towering 6-foot-7 lefthander accepted his sole Division I scholarship offer to Ball State, and in three years on campus he added nearly 10 mph to his fastball and turned into the Cubs’ supplemental firstround pick in 2002. Hagerty dominated his first professional assignment, and pretty soon many Cubs fans began to view Hagerty as the incoming lefthanded complement to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood in the Chicago rotation. “People started saying I’m supposed to be the guy to round out that team,” Hagerty said. “That was kind of a lot to start to hear.” His rise was halted after having Tommy John surgery in 2003. But after nearly two years of rehab he found himself in big league camp impressing decision-makers for the Marlins, who had selected him in the 2004 Rule 5 draft. Playing catch turned into bullpens. Bullpens turned into throwing gas and hitting spots. Hagerty found himself throwing better at age 37 than he had at age 21. In January 2019, he put on an impressive display in a bullpen session at the Seattle-area Driveline facility in front of professional scouts. “I felt like I won there—I mentally won,” Hagerty said. “Putting myself in that situation again to allow that to be an option—I felt pretty empowered The Cubs signed their former prospect. However, an elbow injury put an end to his second run at the big leagues. For now, Hagerty has again retired from professional baseball, but instead of being the player who was run out of baseball by the yips, this time he’s the player who conquered them. Q
Drafted 32nd overall by the Cubs in 2002, lefthander Luke Hagerty reached the precipice of the big leagues as a Marlins Rule 5 pick. He developed the yips while at spring training in 2005 to send his career off the rails. A 2019 comeback attempt fell short of the big leagues but allowed Hagerty to conquer his mental block.
paultrap@BaseballAmerica.com
7
Departments
Marlins outfielder Peyton Burdick jumped to Double-A this season after losing what would have been his fullseason debut in 2020. He needs to continue mashing at the upper levels given that he is already 24 years old.
FA N TA S Y
A team of breakout prospects poised to build value in dynasty leagues by
A
MATT EDDY
cquiring prospects before they go mainstream is a key to dynasty league sustainability. Each season, a number of prospects graduate into big leaguers or lose value with substandard minor league performance. New
breakouts rise to take their place as Top 100 Prospects. Members of the following breakout prospect team are positioned to do
just that. None ranked as preseason Top 100 Prospects, but all are candidates to join the club with strong 2021 seasons. Prospects who made major league Opening Day rosters, such as the Royals’ Kyle Isbel, the Reds’ Jonathan India or the Astros’ Chas McCormick, were not considered. Every member of this breakout prospect team lost game repetitions in 2020 when the pandemic canceled the minor league season. That doesn’t mean all player development was halted. Read on to learn how these prospects met the challenge of a challenging 2020 and why you should be paying attention in dynasty leagues this season. 8
DOUBLE-A NEW HAMPSHIRE • AGE: 21 The Venezuelan catcher burst on the prospect scene in 2018 by compiling a .970 OPS at a pair of Rookie-level stops. He kept raking in the Midwest League in 2019 and popped on Phil Goyette’s ranking of hitters with the highest estimated barrel rates at Low-A that season. Moreno drew praise for his hitting acumen at the Blue Jays’ alternate training site in 2020 and then wrapped the year by hitting .373/.471/.508 with more walks than strikeouts in 18 games in the Venezuelan League.
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
1B NICK PRATTO, ROYALS DOUBLE-A NORTHWEST ARKANSAS • AGE: 22 Drafted 14th overall in 2017, Pratto advanced to High-A Wilmington in 2019 but fell on his face in the Carolina League with a .191/.278/.310 batting line that was one of the worst among minor league regulars. Pratto effectively hit reset in 2020 at the alternate training site and instructional league, using the time to create a more efficient hitting path that allows him to get his bat in the zone sooner. The results and scouting reports from spring training this year indicate success. Pratto hit .345 with four
home runs in 29 at-bats and showed a willingness to work counts and use all fields.
2B CHASE STRUMPF, CUBS HIGH-A SOUTH BEND • AGE: 23 The Cubs viewed Strumpf as a top-five college hitter heading into the 2019 season and stuck with him even after a flat junior year at UCLA. Chicago drafted him late in the second round that year and watched him turn in a successful pro debut in which he touched Low-A. Strumpf worked out on his own last season, independent of the alternate training site, and showed up to instructional league looking a lot like the hitter the Cubs first fell in love with. Especially notable were Strumpf’s swing decisions and opposite-field power. He also saw time at third base, adding the type of versatility that has marked past young Cubs hitters like Kris Bryant, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner.
3B RECE HINDS, REDS LOW-A DAYTONA • AGE: 20 Power. Bat speed. Exit velocity. Hinds has all three attributes but faced questions about how much he would hit when drafted in the second round in
TOM DIPACE; ABBIE PARR/GETTY IMAGES
BET THE FARM
C GABRIEL MORENO, BLUE JAYS
2019. A quad injury limited his pro debut to three games, so his official track record is virtually nonexistent. But the way Hinds performed at the alternate site and instructional league last year, especially in terms of identifying breaking pitches and reducing his chase rate, indicated that a breakout could be imminent. The quality of Hinds’ plus-plus raw power will go a long way if paired with the requisite quantity of balls in play.
SS GUNNAR HENDERSON, ORIOLES LOW-A DELMARVA • AGE: 19 The Orioles drafted Henderson at the top of the second round in 2019, following Adley Rutschman at No. 1 overall. Henderson turned in an average debut in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League but didn’t get a chance to build on it with the canceled minor league season in 2020. Scouts who have seen him at instructional league last year and minor league spring training this year report that Henderson’s power is real. He is a strong, athletic infielder with the chance to hit for impact power from the left side, which will be crucial if he slides to third base.
OF MICHAEL HARRIS, BRAVES HIGH-A ROME • AGE: 20 Harris is a lefthanded-hitting outfielder who hit his way out of the Gulf Coast League in his 2019 pro debut after being drafted in the third round that year. He played 22 games in Low-A as an 18-yearold, making him the same age as international signees like Julio Rodriguez and Ronny Mauricio. Harris could be the ultimate buy-low five-tool prospect because he does so many things well. He has an intriguing blend of hitting ability, power, speed and discipline that should give him major prospect helium this year.
OF JOHAN ROJAS, PHILLIES LOW-A CLEARWATER • AGE: 20 Rojas was one of just nine hitters age 20 or younger who batted 20 or more times in big league spring training games. That list is a veritable who’s who of elite prospects—it includes Wander Franco, Julio Rodriguez, CJ Abrams, Marco Luciano and Riley Greene—and then there’s Rojas and the Braves’ Michael Harris (see above). The Phillies see a lot to like about Rojas, from his glove in center field to his speed to his aptitude to the high-end exit velocities he flashed at instructional league last fall. The shape of his offensive production is still to be determined, but he has a lot of raw ingredients.
OF PEYTON BURDICK, MARLINS DOUBLE-A PENSACOLA • AGE: 24 Only Triple-A sluggers Ty France and Kevin Cron outproduced Burdick in 2019, according to the index metric wRC+, among minor league batters with at least 300 plate appearances. Burdick’s exploits went largely unnoticed because he was a 22-year-old Wright State redshirt junior and thirdround pick who dominated the Low-A Midwest League. But his natural hitting ability, discipline, enhanced strength and go-getter intensity have caught the attention of scouts. Burdick has a lot to
prove in the high minors this season because he’s already 24, but don’t bet against him.
SP CADE CAVALLI, NATIONALS HIGH-A WILMINGTON • AGE: 22 The Nationals drafted Cavalli 22nd overall out of Oklahoma last year and could not wait to see him in game action. Not only was Washington deprived of his official pro debut because of the pandemic, but they saw just four Big 12 Conference starts in 2020 before the shutdown. But the sharply improved control Cavalli showed in those four college starts, including a walk rate of 1.9 per nine innings, combined with the strong impression he made at the alternate training site have him positioned to make a big jump. Cavalli shows a mid-90s fastball, an outstanding changeup, a sharp slider and a curveball with improving 12-to-6 action.
SP ALEC MARSH, ROYALS DOUBLE-A NORTHWEST ARKANSAS • AGE: 22 Marsh gained helium throughout his junior year at Arizona State in 2019 and landed with the Royals in the supplemental second round. He logged 33 innings in the Rookie-level Pioneer League that year, where he showcased a four-pitch mix and strong control. But then 2020 happened. Marsh’s official record last year consisted of three appearances in the independent Constellation Energy League, but he made a ton of progress behind the scenes. Most notably, Marsh boosted his average velocity several ticks. The Royals say he now sits mid 90s and has added oomph to his slider and better 12-to-6 shape to his curveball. Pitching prospects are volatile, but Marsh has enough positive attributes, including high marks for competitiveness and preparation, that he’s well worth the risk.
SP HUNTER BROWN, ASTROS DOUBLE-A CORPUS CHRISTI • AGE: 22 Brown is a classic example of a pitcher with big stuff coming from a small school. The Astros pounced on the Division II Wayne State righthander in the fifth round in 2019 and watched him play to his strengths (and weaknesses) at short-season Tri-City. Brown struck out 33 in 23.2 innings while allowing just 13 hits—but he also walked 18 batters with poor control. Houston has work to do to get
Royals righthander Alec Marsh added a few ticks of velocity to a promising fourpitch mix last season. He already has the necessary size and poise to start.
Brown’s control and command near average, but the payoff is immense if it all clicks. He pitches in the mid-to-high 90s with a full complement of power secondaries, including a 12-to-6 curveball, hard slider and changeup. Brown could struggle to develop the feel to start, but he could dominate in relief.
SP KYLE HARRISON, GIANTS LOW-A SAN JOSE • AGE: 19 The Giants have built a reputation for developing big league pitchers into their best selves. Harrison could give them a similar success story in the minor leagues. San Francisco drafted Harrison in the third round in 2020 and went well over slot to sign him. He quickly emerged as not only the organization’s best draft value but also its top pitching prospect in a hitter-heavy system. Harrison bulked up his body and velocity after signing. By spring training this year he was touching 98 mph and sitting mid 90s with riding action from a lower arm slot. It’s a tough look for opposing batters, who also must contend with his improving slider. While Harrison is largely a two-pitch pitcher, he has plenty of time to add polish as he climbs the ladder. ■ 9
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JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
KELLY GAVIN/MLB PHOTOS VIA GETTY IMAGES
The Dodgers’ Max Muncy is a championship player whose overall profile doesn’t map neatly to any position. At 6 feet, he’s short for a first baseman. He isn't a traditionally rangy second baseman and his arm doesn’t stand out at third base. All Muncy does is hit.
COV E R STO RY
TALENT OVER TRADITION The ability to better measure hitting attributes has increased teams’ comfort level when valuing players who might not fit traditional positional profiles by
A
MARK GONZALES
glut of returning infielders from UC
Mozeliak believes the trend gained trac-
Irvine’s 2014 College World Series
tion circa 2009 with the Rays’ Ben Zobrist, a
team forced then-freshman Keston
sound switch-hitter and natural shortstop who
Hiura to shift to the outfield before
enhanced his value with his defensive versatility
playing his first college game. Hiura, a shortstop at Valencia (Calif.) High,
that former manager Joe Maddon and Mozeliak likened to a Swiss Army knife.
eventually returned to the infield—but only
The Cardinals weren’t scared by Wong’s
after turning pro. The Brewers drafted him
5-foot-7 frame when they drafted him in the
ninth overall in 2017 and developed him as a
first round in 2011. They continued that trend
second baseman, beginning in 2018 after his
with less risk in 2016 when they drafted 5-foot-
throwing elbow healed.
10, switch-hitting Stanford shortstop Tommy
But just as Hiura, 24, was preparing to
Edman in the sixth round. Edman was employed
improve his defense at second base last win-
at third base, second base and the outfield until
ter, the Brewers seized the opportunity for an
the arrival of all-star third baseman Nolan
upgrade by signing Gold Glove second baseman
Arenado last winter.
Kolten Wong. That meant that Hiura, generously listed at 6 feet, would move to first base for a National League playoff contender despite having never played the position. “It really doesn’t matter whether it’s the
Edman has spent the majority of his playing time in 2021 at second base, but it may not be permanent. With Arenado signed through 2027, the Cardinals shifted prospect third baseman Nolan Gorman, the club’s first-round pick in 2018,
infield or the outfield,” said Hiura, who made
to second base at least on a part-time basis at
138 major league starts—all at second base or
Double-A Springfield.
DH—prior to the 2021 season. “I love to find a
“My point is rather than pigeonhole someone
way to get in the lineup. I think a lot of people
at a position and say, ‘This is your position,’
realize that.”
move (them) around,” Mozeliak said.
And what has become more evident, espe-
One American League scouting director didn’t
cially in the last 10 years, is that players are no
believe the trend away from profiling players at
longer wedded or projected to specific positions
each position according to their strongest tools
based on their body types or the traditional
represented a “drastic shift.” He concurred with
tools-related profile prerequisites.
Mozeliak’s assessment of versatility carrying a
John Mozeliak, the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations, stressed that scouts still look for physical characteristics, such as size, strength and speed. “But with what’s happened in the last 10 to 20 years, if you hit, we find you a place to play,” Mozeliak said.
large emphasis, while adding that hitting is valued more in this era of increased velocity. “A guy at the top (of the draft list) used to be a defensive guy, even if he batted .260,” the evaluator said. “Now teams are leaning the other way. “Even if a defender has a 70 (on the 20-80 11
The Cardinals drafted high school third baseman Nolan Gorman 19th overall in 2018 in large part because of his prodigious power. But after acquiring Nolan Arenado in a trade, St. Louis began working Gorman out at second base and left field as he prepared to make the jump to Double-A.
scouting scale) at shortstop, what are his offensive numbers in
sistently framing pitches well and converting
to draft him out of Louisiana State in the second
the minors?”
them into strikes for his pitchers.
round in 2009 as a second baseman despite his
“A lot of mistakes are made by teams taking
draft, gradually quelled questions regarding whether his 6-foot-5 frame
catchers with big arms,” an NL executive said.
would be a deterrent to his ability to play third base. He earned the 2016
“Many of them can’t hit, anyway.
National League MVP award for the World Series champions. Meanwhile, an emphasis on pitch-framing, accompanied by a decline in
“Of course, you’re not going to pass up on
6-foot-4 frame—once deemed to be the perfect height for a first baseman. But LeMahieu’s defense has been excellent, as evidenced by his NL Gold Glove awards for
taking a Buster Posey with the fifth pick (by the
the Rockies in 2014, 2017 and 2018. He departed
stolen bases, has shifted the pursuit of a catcher who can steal strikes over
Giants in 2008). But you’re likely to get more
for the Yankees in 2020 and has won two Silver
a rifle-armed thrower who could shut down a running game, like Hall of
offense out of the conversion guys.”
Slugger awards in addition to expanding his
Famers Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez did. Tony Wolters signed with the Indians for $1.35 million as a third-round
And the increase in defensive shifts has enabled teams to reduce the range and/or
defensive duties to first and third base. Size might not matter in the Pirates orga-
pick in 2010 as a 5-foot-10, lefthanded-hitting high school shortstop out
throwing demands of their most challenged
nization, which features 6-foot-7 shortstop
of Vista, Calif. But Wolters’ path was blocked by Francisco Lindor, prompt-
infielder, while placing their trust in their best
prospect Oneil Cruz.
ing a switch to catcher in 2013 that helped him build a big league career
defender to protect nearly an entire side of
that entered its sixth season in 2021.
the infield.
Wolters has earned playing time, mostly as a backup catcher, by con12
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
The Cubs valued D.J. LeMahieu’s skills enough
“He has no problem with ground balls,” Pirates farm director John Baker said. “Three steps for him are five steps for other people.
TOM DIPACE; RON VESELY/GETTY IMAGES
Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, the second player selected in the 2013
The White Sox drafted 6-foot Andrew Vaughn third overall in 2019, making him the shortest first baseman ever drafted that high while also indicating that height at first base may not be as prized as it was in the past.
VERSATILITY IS ABOUT MORE THAN DEFENSE
Game changer New realities of baseball in the 2020s have placed new emphasis on how teams evaluate players Power is a driving force behind personnel decisions in Major League Baseball today. Put simply, pitchers throw harder than ever before, and batters hit the ball harder than ever before. These twin realities have reshaped the way players are scouted, data is applied and even how the game is played. With baseball being a top-down sport, changes to the style of play in MLB trickle down to lower levels, in this case the minor leagues, amateur baseball and beyond. MLB executives and scouts point to three factors that have steered the game to where it is today: advances in analytics, short benches and high velocity. We will explore all three in detail.
ANALYTICS COME OF AGE We live in a post-Moneyball world. Few players active today remember the time depicted in Michael Lewis’ bestseller, a time before analytics were embraced by all big league front offices. Twenty years ago, a fashionable way to frame the rise of sabermetrics in baseball was as an ideological war that pitted scouts versus stats. But that was never wholly accurate. The most successful front offices relied on both traditional scouting methods and new data streams to project player value and, ultimately, to win games. The notion of there ever being a front office divide seems quaint today, now that MLB Statcast has mainstreamed advanced data for the masses following its launch in 2015. The ways in which analytics impact the game today are both obvious and subtle. What began decades ago as an appreciation for on-base percentage and other undervalued attributes has evolved into:
(1) Sophisticated defensive positioning that allows less rangy players, including star shortstops Corey Seager and Carlos Correa, to stay up the middle; (2) Historically high stolen base success rates in a time of historically low stolen base attempts; and (3) Precise pitch-tracking information that has enabled pitchers to fine-tune their repertoires and sequences to record historic strikeout rates. Among the more subtle influences of the rise in analytics is the confidence it conveys to clubs to make decisions that might have been dismissed as unconventional even a decade ago. We see this increasingly in the draft, where players who do not “profile” or conform to traditional positional prototypes are being drafted higher than ever. Three examples stand out. X The White Sox drafted Oregon State second baseman Nick Madrigal fourth overall in 2018. Madrigal’s listed height is 5-foot-8, tying him with fellow college middle infielders Joey Cora and Mike Fontenot as the shortest players ever drafted in the first round. Madrigal was seen as a top talent in his draft class, but Fontenot went 19th overall in 2001 and Cora 23rd overall in 1985. X The White Sox drafted California first baseman Andrew Vaughn third overall in 2019. Vaughn is listed as 6 feet tall—once considered inadequate for first base—making him the shortest first baseman ever drafted with a top-six pick. Six-foot prep first basemen Jessie Reid (1980) and Prince Fielder (2002) were drafted seventh overall. Vaughn is the shortest college first baseman ever to be drafted inside the top 14 picks. X The Marlins drafted Minnesota righthander Max Meyer third overall in 2020. Meyer is listed as 6 feet tall—once viewed as insufficient for a righthanded starter—making him the shortest righthander ever to be drafted that high. Fellow sixfoot righties Alex Fernandez (1990), Jeff Austin (1998) and Brad Lincoln (2006) all went fourth overall in their drafts. The examples above indicate that when it comes to amateur scouting, the focus has shifted away from what a player can’t do—or even what he looks like—to what he can do. The precision of data has helped change the way players are valued.
The number of relievers rostered and deployed in the big leagues keeps growing, even with an effort to curb their usage via the three-batter rule. Overstuffed big league bullpens have led to understaffed benches. As a result, defensive versatility has become a prized attribute because it helps teams carry eight or more hardthrowing relievers. Major league teams no longer think in terms of backing up each position individually or rostering pinch-hitters on the bench. They think in terms of players who offer multi-positional versatility, preferably ones who can hit the historic velocity in today’s game. The Dodgers’ Chris Taylor is perhaps the best example of a super-utility player today. He regularly plays shortstop, second base, center field and left field. He dabbles at third base and right field. Taylor’s versatility allows him to cover six defensive positions for the Dodgers, but his value can be expressed just as readily in terms of lineup position. By being able to move Taylor around to various positions, the Dodgers can work other hitters into their lineup who balance or lengthen the lineup against that day’s opposing pitcher. Oh, and Taylor is a fine hitter himself who often bats fifth or sixth for one of the National League’s highest scoring teams. In this sense, defensive versatility is offensive versatility.
FIGHTING FIRE WITH FIRE The average major league fastball gets faster each season. Through nearly a quarter of the 2021 season, the average fastball velocity was 93.8 mph, according to pitch info data at FanGraphs.com. That average velocity was 93.5 mph last season. Velocity tends to be lowest in April and increase in heat with the summer weather. The value proposition for pitchers and velocity is about more than blowing fastballs past opposing batters. Increased fastball velocity helps pitchers’ breaking and offspeed stuff play up because hitters have to be geared to attack the fastball. Pitchers’ increasing ability to cultivate velocity has increased the impetus for teams to find hitters who can hit heightened velocity. Typically this means selecting hitters for strength, speed and athleticism, and worrying about defensive position—or positions—as he nears the big leagues. Athleticism and adjustability are essential for hitters who need to manipulate their hands to get the barrel to the ball in different parts of the zone, particularly fastballs up and breaking pitches down. This makes sense in light of the extreme velocity and wicked vertical movement on fastballs and breaking pitches today. A light-hitting shortstop who gets the bat knocked out of his hand hurts his team more acutely today, because pitchers apply 100% effort to attacking each hitter and also because situational hitting, such as bunting and moving runners over, has fallen out of favor. As White Sox farm director Chris Getz notes: “There’s so much emphasis on getting the bat right.” And with good reason in today’s game. —Matt Eddy
13
He’s remarkable to watch.” Baker believes Cruz, 22, has the athletic ability to grow into a spot. That includes the outfield, where 6-foot-7 slugger Frank Howard spent a majority of his 16 seasons in the 1960s and ’70s. But the Dodgers, one of Howard’s former teams, moved 5-foot-10 Steve Garvey from third base to first on a full-time basis in 1973 because of throwing issues. Garvey developed into a Gold Glove-caliber defender, and teams such as the Cardinals (Keith Hernandez) and Cubs (Mark Grace) sacrificed height and power at that position because they provided more contact and better defense, while ample power was supplied at other positions. Scenarios such as smaller first basemen, such as Hiura, catchers known more for framing pitches and calling a game, and defenders who don’t possess the greatest range at demanding positions, have become more apparent in recent years. A consensus of executives and evaluators point to the increased presence of analytics, the search for more offense in an era of elite velocity and attempts to maximize 26-man rosters (with expanded bullpens) with more versatile position players. “It used to be about the organization and their theories,” one AL pro scout said. “Now it’s an analytical thing. It’s more about positioning than the position player. It’s more customized.” “It’s a reflection of this game, as a whole,” another AL pro scout said. “There was a time I never would have believed Mark Canha (of the Athletics) would look effective in center field, but his ultimate zone rating (a defensive metric displayed at FanGraphs) says he can play there.” The decline of artificial turf surfaces, which are in use today in Tampa Bay, Texas and Toronto in the AL and Arizona and Miami in the
a priority,” an NL crosschecker observed.
for thinking outside the box, from transforming
NL, also has lessened the emphasis on defend-
“I thought in the past, the better teams had
catcher Kenley Jansen and infielder Pedro Baez
ers’ range and raw speed. The Blue Jays aren’t
super-utility guys, like the Angels had with
(now with Astros) into effective relievers; con-
playing home games in the Rogers Centre this
Chone Figgins.
verting infielders like Russell Martin and Carlos
there in the future. “You don’t see a large number of guys who
“Arm strength is never that big of a priority, unless you’re David until he got on that Toronto turf
executive said. “There aren’t many dual-sport
and got exposed.”
same athlete.”
The Dodgers, who have won eight consecutive NL West divi-
The lack of speed is reflected by the gradual
sion titles and have appeared
reduction of stolen base attempts, from 4,247
in three of the last four World
in 2000 to 3,112 in 2019. The rate of stolen bases
Series, winning it all in 2020,
attempted per nine innings in April this sea-
present an interesting blend.
son was the lowest of the Expansion Era, even
R U N D OW N
Eckstein, who played shallow
are 70-80 runners like you used to,” an NL guys. Sometimes you’re not getting the
Santana into catchers; and drafting two-way high school players James Loney and Alex Verdugo
“What’s happened in the last 10 to 20 years is if you hit, we find you a place to play,” Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said.
(now with the Red Sox) as position players, even though many scouts favored them on the mound. And one of their latest finds was signing stout infielder Max Muncy after he was released by the Athletics in 2017 and playing
“They have what it takes to be
him half the time at first base,
though the April success rate of 77.1% was the
great,” the AL amateur scouting director said.
where he hit 33 of his 70 homers in 2018
highest ever recorded in the first month of
“They still play defense, run and hit. They’re
and 2019.
the season.
good on both halves of an inning.”
“The rule of thumb is that the bat carries 14
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
Yet, the NL executive credited the Dodgers
Muncy is listed at 6 feet, which was once considered short for a first baseman. But as the
RICK STEWART/GETTY IMAGES; STACY REVERE/GETTY IMAGES
year because of the pandemic but will return
Team speed became less valued as baseball moved away from the fast artificial turf surfaces that once were common. Pictured here is Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh, one of six turf surfaces in the 12-team National League of the 1970s, ’80s and early ’90s.
history. The average age of catchers has hovered between 29 and 30 since the mid 1980s, making it regularly the oldest position on the field.
FIRST BASEMEN
KESTON HIURA
The shape of baseball in 2021 The game is getting younger—and in some cases shorter and lighter
adage states: If a player hits, his team will find a place to play him. “There’s a trend toward maximizing the potential,” said the executive, adding that the Dodgers moved Joe Ferguson from the outfield to catcher and Bill Russell from outfield to shortstop in the 1970s. “I don’t think we’re reinventing the wheel. You look at every angle of a ballclub. The difference is it’s more necessary now because of the changing of pitchers for virtually every batter.” For small-market teams like the Brewers, steering away from stereotypes is the norm. “I think we’re less strict with the thought that everything has to be a square peg in a square hole, everything has to fit perfectly,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. “We’re willing to try more things. In markets like ours, we’re going to try more things because
As the major league game undergoes drastic stylistic changes, the literal shape of the average major league regular is changing. According to data shared by Baseball-Reference.com, the average height of regular position players in the major leagues, weighted by games started, peaked at 73 inches in 2016. It fell to 72.9 inches in 2019 and 2020. The average weight of MLB regular position players, again weighted by games started, peaked at 211.4 pounds in 2015 but had fallen to 208.5 pounds in 2020. This could be reflective of a more youthful game, and younger players having lower listed weights earlier in their careers. To that point, the average major league position player got a full year younger between 2010 and 2020, falling from 29.2 to 28.2 years old in that span. These numbers differ slightly from the public Baseball-Reference data because they are weighted by games started at the eight field positions, not including DH. Baseball has not been consistently younger than it is today since the 1960s and ’70s, when multiple waves of expansion created opportunities for untested players. The average age of regulars in those decades got as low as 27.3 years old. Presented below are takeaways from studying characteristics of major league regular players at various positions, weighted by games started and provided by BaseballReference.com. The 2019 season is used as a reference point because it was the last to feature 162 games under typical conditions.
CATCHERS The probable advent of an automated strike zone in the major leagues will dramatically alter the shape of the catcher position. The ability to frame pitches as strikes will take a back seat to the more old-school catcher attributes of blocking, receiving and throwing. Teams may also begin to favor offensive production at catcher as they did in the 1990s and 2000s. Catchers in 2019 averaged 30.1 years old, which is on the extreme old side—86th percentile—for the position in baseball
Given the high offensive production levels first basemen are expected to contribute, as well as the running and throwing limitations permitted, the position has skewed toward more experienced players in recent times. The average age of regular first basemen was 29.8 in 2019, placing it in the 72nd percentile for oldest ever. First basemen haven’t been consistently young since the early 1990s. Of greater note at first base is the diminishing requirement for height. A 6-foot player was once deemed too short to play first base, with exceptions made for the most prodigious sluggers, such as Prince Fielder. The reason for the height prerequisite was that taller players created larger targets and could stretch farther to receive throws. The tallest average height ever at first base was 74.8 inches in 2018. That figure dropped all the way to 74.2 in 2019, for the largest year-over-year decrease ever. Anecdotal evidence indicates that many non-sluggers under 6 feet tall, e.g. Michael Chavis, Jedd Gyorko and Tommy La Stella, have played the position with regularity in recent seasons. In another example, the Brewers shifted 6-foot Keston Hiura to first base.
INFIELDERS The average age of non-first base infielders was 27.6 years old in 2019. That ranks in the 20th percentile for youngest all time. The age of non-first base infielders fell dramatically in the 2010s as it declined from historically old levels in the late 2000s and early 2010s. At 29.4 years old, 2009 was the oldest average age non-first base infield regulars have ever been. In particular, shortstop has been a young man’s position of late. The average age of regulars in 2018 and 2019 was 26.6, which is in the 6th percentile for youngest all time. Second basemen are trending down from high average ages in the early 2010s. This is somewhat surprising in light of the slide rule at second base that disallows runners from sliding through the bag on double play pivots. The rule would seemingly allow older, less agile players to man second base.
CENTER FIELDERS Based on the area center fielders must cover, the position has belonged to younger players throughout baseball history. Along with shortstops, regular center fielders are typically between 27 and 28 years old on average during most periods in history. This makes them the two youngest positions.
CORNER OUTFIELDERS Corner outfielders are younger today than they have been throughout most of baseball history. The average age of left and right fielders in 2019 was 27.8 years old, which ranks in the 13th percentile all time in terms of youth. Corner outfield regulars had not been that young since 1977. Not only are corner outfielders younger, but they are lighter than they have been since the late 2000s. This could be a distortion of the data based on younger players active today having lower listed weights early in their careers. Alternatively, it could indicate that youth and presumed speed are more prized on the outfield corners as more hard-hit fly balls are capable of doing more damage if not corralled. —Matt Eddy
we have to. 15
“You have to be creative in how you put together your roster. You have to be creative and flexible in how you put it together and think of different solutions. And I think the way the game is now set up, it’s forced people and organizations to be as creative as they possibly can. “Then we’ve figured how to value different things, whether it’s defense or a hitter or what is the value of a tall first baseman. I think we’ve all figured different things, and each team values different things.” Two years before Hiura moved from second base to first, the Brewers shifted Mike Moustakas from third base to second despite playing third exclusively in each of his previous eight seasons in the big leagues. Moustakas was drafted as a shortstop and played it for his first two pro seasons. The move was mitigated by the Brewers’ emphasis on shifts. They led the NL in 2018 with 1,462 shifts, according to Sports Information Systems, and that increased by 314 in 2019 partly due to Moustakas appearing in 40 games at second. And now, “I realize I don’t have to range that far to my right because of Kolten,” Hiura said. But this season, one year after signing a four-year contract with the Reds, Moustakas returned to third base—with Eugenio Suarez moving to shortstop and Jonathan India, the fifth overall pick in the 2018 draft, moving to second base despite playing most of his amateur and minor league career at third. The AL pro scout, however, warned of the perils of moving players to non-traditional positions, especially with shifts and sacrificing a large portion of one side of the infield to defend. “The game speeds up,” the scout said. “You see second basemen who can’t turn routine double plays because the third baseman is out of position. “If you change the game, you change the player.” Even Counsell admitted Hiura’s switch to first requires patience. “It’s been a learning progression for him over there,” Counsell said. “I still think he’s going to be very good over there. But what we found out is that first base is one of the more challenging different it is than the other positions. “And so there are a lot of different plays over
on May 3, one day before minor league Opening Day. After a strong rookie season in 2019, Hiura
there, and I think he’s making progress. There
had struggled through the past two seasons,
have been some hiccups along the way, but I
batting .196/.284/.372 in 85 games with a 35%
think you move a middle infielder over to a cor-
strikeout rate.
ner of the field and you’re going to get a good
Maddon, who thrives on his “be comfortable
5-foot-9 than his listed 5-foot-11 height. But La Stella didn’t commit an error in 74 chances. “We put Tommy there to get his bat in the lineup, plain and simple,” Maddon said of La Stella, who has since returned to second base
defensive player in the end, and I think he’s on
uncomfortable” slogan, wasn’t afraid to start
with the Giants. “He worked at it and gave it a
his way to that.”
second baseman Tommy La Stella 10 times at
great effort. He maybe won’t make some of the
first base during the 60-game 2020 season with
plays that an Anthony Rizzo or J.T. Snow can
the Angels, despite La Stella standing closer to
make, but we took it based on his bat as a first
Hiura continued to work on his defensive play at Triple-A Nashville after being optioned there 16
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
Many credit Ben Zobrist for popularizing the multiposition player who hits enough to play every day. Zobrist had his first big season for the 2009 Rays, when he played mostly second base and right field, while also starting multiple games at shortstop, left field, center field and first base. He hit .297/.405/.543 as a 28-yearold, first-time regular.
J. MERIC/GETTY IMAGES; PAUL BERESWILL/GETTY IMAGES
positions because of how different it is, how
baseman or as a leadoff hitter.” Maddon stressed there is a limit to push-
quate defense in limited time. The emergence of Yermin Mercedes cut into
ing the boundaries of your defense with more
Vaughn’s at-bats, but the White Sox are confi-
offense-oriented players.
dent Vaughn will become a full-time producer
“I don’t undervalue first base defense,” Maddon said. “First base defense increases con-
in the near future. “There’s so much emphasis on getting the
fidence in your infielders. It saves errors
bat right,” White Sox farm director Chris Getz
and runs. I love a lefthanded first baseman
said. “Hitting is difficult to predict. We’re get-
because of the ability to tag with that right hand
ting better with more data, exit velocity and
and ability to cover the hole (between first
how it plays out.
and second). “As we continue to try to re-create the game, there will be different inefficiencies. The concern is always about unintended consequences.
“We’re reminded of the tools—throwing, running and raw power. But now you worry about the position later.” Baker, 40, who converted from first base to
They’ll show up at some point. But on the sur-
catcher as a freshman at Cal before playing
face, I want a really good first baseman.
parts of seven seasons with the Marlins,
“I still want a catcher who knows what he’s
Padres and Cubs, stressed that pitch-framing
doing back there, knows how to handle pitch-
is only one of several skills he prefers that a
ers in spite of having an electronic strike zone.
catcher master.
And why wouldn’t you want a strong defender
“There’s still work to be done,” Baker said.
on the field? It just shows up, especially on the
“It’s not an easy position. There’s throwing,
infield. We’ll see how it plays out.
blocking, relationships and pitch-calling.
“I’ve started games with a lesser defensive player who can really hit, but my intent was to always get him out after three at-bats with a lead.” Maddon’s preferred script worked perfectly in
There’s more bandwidth on it. I hope they don’t go away.” Furthermore, Getz tempered some of the scrutiny attached to pitch-framing statistics. Five-time AL Gold Glove winner Salvador
the 2015 NL Wild Card Game against the Pirates
Perez, Getz’s former teammate with the Royals,
when he started left fielder Kyle Schwarber in
is a net positive behind the plate despite a
right field because he had less territory to cover
below-average ability to frame strikes.
at spacious PNC Park.
At the same time, Getz was pleased with
Schwarber hit an RBI single and a two-run
White Sox 2016 first-round pick Zack Collins,
home run off Gerrit Cole in his first two at-bats
a catcher from Miami, who avoided a position
before he was pulled for defensive purposes in
change by improving his pitch-framing with a
the seventh inning.
new technique.
The White Sox drafted first baseman Andrew
“Pitch-framing can be deceptive,” Getz said.
Vaughn of California with the third overall pick
“The strike zone is a factor, especially if there’s
in 2019 despite the presence of Jose Abreu, who
more north and south movement. You’re also
signed a three-year, $50 million contract five
handling a different pitching staff year to year.”
months later and won AL MVP honors in the truncated 2020 season. The White Sox projected the 6-foot, 215pound Vaughn as a fast-track player on the
Maddon, 67, grew up a fan of the Cardinals and loved how Lou Brock’s speed impacted the game in the 1960s and ’70s. But Maddon has adjusted without the proto-
basis of his blend of power and discipline,
typical speedster at the top of the order, while
which he displayed by batting .374 with 50
maximizing the skills of a versatile player
home runs, 123 walks and just 75 strikeouts
like Zobrist during his days in Tampa Bay and
in three college seasons.
Chicago. He has overseen a converted third
The original plan for Vaughn was to start 2021
baseman like Willson Contreras improve his
in the minor leagues to make up for at-bats and
pitch-framing to complement his throwing
defensive work lost to the coronavirus pandem-
abilities with the Cubs.
ic, with a midseason promotion realistic. Vaughn received extensive work at third base
“It comes down to organizational philosophy,” said Maddon, who spent 14 seasons in
last July before Yoan Moncada returned after
player development before joining the Angels’
a bout of Covid. But the script changed dra-
major league coaching staff in 1994. “We all
matically with one week left in spring training,
have our own perceptions of what’s the right
when left fielder Eloy Jimenez suffered a sea-
way to do things, and that’s great. And that’s
son-threatening pectoral injury.
the way the world should operate.
Vaughn, who already was competing for an Opening Day spot as a DH despite playing in just 55 minor league games, all in 2019, received a crash course in left field and had played ade-
“But that doesn’t mean it’s necessarily the right way.” —Mark Gonzales is a veteran baseball writer based in Chicago
Here today, gone tomorrow Expectations for catchers could change overnight with an automated strike zone Will the pitch-framing crusade that has opened doors and extended careers for catchers take a called third strike? That possibility has crossed the minds of major league executives and evaluators. That’s because the likelihood of the automated strike zone looms, even as major league teams continue to search for and develop catchers who can manipulate the fringes of the strike zone to frame strikes for their pitchers. “If the strike zone is automated, then it’s all about catching a baseball and throwing it back, and hitting home runs,” said Angels manager Joe Maddon, a former minor league catcher. “And they won’t worry about pitch-framing.” Major League Baseball is using automated ball-strike technology (ABS) in eight of nine parks at the Low-A Southeast League this season. But the future of how balls and strikes will be called in the major leagues will occur during Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations between MLB and the players’ union. The current CBA expires on Dec. 1. The MLB Umpires Association already agreed to oblige if commissioner Rob Manfred elects to implement the format in major league games. Such a move could revamp the current teaching technique for catchers, such as pitch- framing and use of a one-knee setup, in favor of more traditional skills, such as arm strength and blocking pitches. “It’s coming,” said one American League scout who watched games in the independent Atlantic League, which has used ABS as part of an agreement with MLB since 2019. “If you drop a ball, what’s the difference? The (ABS) will decide. Technology changes everything.” Maddon believes spring training for catchers could revert to his preferred “liberal arts” method, where blocking pitches on both sides of home plate, throwing, receiving and developing a solid presentation to pitchers are each valued heavily. “Old catchers used to get upset because it used to be about receiving, throwing and blocking,” the AL scout said. “Now, it’s all about stealing strikes.” Executives and scouts will be keeping a close eye on the experimental rules at Triple-A and Low-A, which were devised to increase action on the basepaths. That could trickle down to a greater emphasis on the traditional catching skills of receiving and throwing. The Triple-A bases were extended this season from 15 to 18 inches and will be made of material designed to better withstand wet weather. But the scout suspected the extra three inches length would tempt more teams to steal bases. The temptation would extend to all Low-A leagues, which will limit pitchers to two pickoff throws per plate appearance. “That also could take away the one-knee setup,” the scout said, referring to the catching technique that allows catchers to set up lower and get more advantageous strike calls at the bottom of the strike zone. The bottom line is that ABS would change expectations for major league catchers overnight. —Mark Gonzales
17
JULIO AGUILAR/GETTY IMAGES
18 12
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
Context is everything in baseball, and the information scouts acquire by seeing players at all levels in game settings is invaluable for improving their evaluation skill. More teams are opting to scout Triple-A and the big leagues via video, thus depriving scouts of in-person looks.
T H E S TAT E O F S C O U T I N G
SCOUT’S HONOR The precision of data has in some cases edged out the expertise of scouts as teams strive for maximum effectiveness—and maximum cost-efficiency by
O
JOSH NORRIS
ne of the biggest trade wins in recent memory plays shortstop in San Diego. Almost from his first day in the Padres organization, Fernando Tatis
These teams’ scouting staffs stand in contrast with current trends. More and more teams have opted to downsize their scouting departments across all levels.
Jr. had the makings of a star. He crushed every
Entering the 2019 season, per information
level of the minor leagues, then made the big
listed in media guides and the annual Baseball
leagues out of spring training in 2019 and fin-
America Directory, teams employed a combined
ished third in National League Rookie of the
1,909 full-time scouting directors, assistant
Year balloting.
directors, special assistants, special assignment
At the time he was traded in 2016, Tatis had
scouts, amateur, professional and internation-
yet to play an official game for his signing
al scouts. This season, that number is down
franchise. The White Sox had inked him out
to 1,756, for a difference of 153 fewer scouts.
of the Dominican Republic in a 2015 interna-
That’s an average of 5.1 fewer scouts per team,
tional signing class that also included Vladimir
but the losses were not evenly distributed.
Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto.
Four teams have more scouts and front office
The process the Padres went through to
scouting personnel in 2021 than they had in
acquire Tatis as the second piece—along with
2019. Seven teams’ departments lost 10 or more
lefthander Erik Johnson—in the deal that sent
scouts from 2019 to 2021.
James Shields to Chicago was extensive. Four
The financial losses teams have sustained
of the team’s scouts with decades of com-
throughout the course of the pandemic exac-
bined experience saw Tatis on the back fields
erbated the trend, but teams were eschewing
in Arizona before recommending that he be
in-person scouting in favor of analytics and
included in the trade.
video scouting before Covid-19 became a part
The Padres have one of the most robust
of our collective vocabulary.
professional scouting staffs in baseball, with
“I think Covid, obviously you could say
15 scouts tasked to cover the major and minor
this for probably anything,” one scout said,
leagues. That’s tied with the Rays, Pirates and
“but I think it happened at a really bad time
Marlins and ranks behind just the Yankees (19),
for scouting.”
D-backs (17) and Mets (16).
Simply put, some teams have looked at their 19
The Padres acquiring a 17-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr. from the White Sox in June 2016—before he had played a pro game—represents one of the great trade wins of recent memory. San Diego had four of its top pro scouts bear down on Tatis on the Arizona backfields before asking for him as part of the return for James Shields.
In one former scout’s opinion, this could
tions listen to these types of guys. You’re going
scouts are expendable and player evaluation can be done just as effective-
ultimately hurt scouts’ development. The
to miss out on the development of those types
ly—and more efficiently—either through analytics or via video.
most respected voices in the room have put in
of guys, and they’ll be gone in the game if you
The technology around the game has exploded in the last decade, to
decades at all levels. They’ve likely seen every
continue to neglect Triple-A and Double-A.
the point where nearly everything is measurable, and a great deal of that
level of the minor leagues, as well as plenty of
“Why? Because you need to have scouts
information is public or will be in the near future. Any big league pitcher’s
amateur baseball both domestically and inter-
learn what a guy looks like at 18, 19, 20, 21 and
velocity or spin rate is available with a few clicks of a mouse. The same
nationally. All that is usually in addition to a
in A-ball and all the different demographics.
goes for a player’s exit velocity or sprint speed or even catchers’ pop times.
playing career. No matter the path, these scouts
The college kid, the old college kid in A-ball,
have shaped their perspective over years on
the Dominican kid, the Venezuelan. There’s so
every type of ballfield imaginable.
many subsets of players with so many different
The public data isn’t particularly plentiful in the minor leagues yet— some teams do tweet about exit velocities every now and again—but most of the sport is available to stream via MiLB.TV. Some minor league teams even have broadcast TV deals.
“I think what you’ll lose in doing that is the
backgrounds that you have to see them all, and
development of scouts. There’s some really,
then you have to track their development—and
really stinking good scouts out there. Really
then you have to evaluate how well you did
els, is so good—and is slated to get much better because of Major League
good scouts with a phenomenal feel for play-
evaluating. That’s how you get good at it.”
Baseball’s new broadcast requirements—that some clubs have decided to
ers,” one former scout said. “What they say
stop in-person scouting of Triple-A and the big leagues.
matters, and even the most analytical organiza-
The quality of the minor league streams, especially at the upper lev-
20
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
That proliferation of data and video has, for some teams, led them to employ fewer scouts.
BILL MITCHELL; JONATHAN DANIEL/STRINGER VIA GETTY IMAGES
books for places to save money and have come to the conclusion that
Instead of having, say, 15 scouts for the big leagues through the lowest levels, they can have 10 scouts do in-person games for Double-A through Rookie ball, while also doing six upper-level teams on video. For now, this affects pro scouts more acutely than it does scouts in amateur or international departments, though amateur departments were significantly slashed from 2019 to 2021 as well. There are still thousands of players at high schools and colleges where data is not easily captured. Without that data, teams can’t easily use forecasting models to come up with predictions for their career paths. Thus, more eyes are still needed to adequately cover those levels. For pro scouts, that means more in-person looks than ever are focused on players at Class A
DAVE HOLLINS
and below. That’s where a keen scout might be able to clue his team into a player who has made great changes in the offseason, or the player on the back fields whose name hasn’t reached the mainstream. “It’s just a constant trickle-down of focusing on the levels of baseball that we have the least amount of information, the least TrackMan data, the least video,” the first scout said, “and using that to prioritize our in-person looks.” But while it remains true that the players at the lowest levels are the ones for whom the least data is available, that doesn’t mean that scouting the upper levels and the big leagues lack value. The top players are likely to continue being the top players—and probably aren’t going to be available in trade or free agency in the near future—but the fringe or second-tier big leaguers, the ones who might fill out a roster the next season, could yield big results for a smart team. “We know who the best players are in the big leagues. Do you need me to tell you that Mike Trout is good at baseball? No, you do not need me to tell you that,” the first scout said. “However, there’s going to be guys that play in the big leagues this year who don’t play well in the big leagues, don’t perform well, and they end up going on waivers or signing as a free agent, and they’re going to end up playing well down the road.” Nearly all pro scouting in 2020 was done via video because of the pandemic, and scouts are fearful that the practice—despite its flaws— could become more commonplace because it is much cheaper. And while that’s undeniably true, video scouting does not allow for the finer points of the scouting profession. While a scout can see a great number of games on video, and analytics can help illuminate some aspects not visible to the naked eye, there are more elements to scouting beyond evaluating the player in
A rough winter More than 150 scouting jobs were lost due to the pandemic and an industry-wide emphasis on data, analytics and cost-efficiency This offseason was the most brutal in recent memory for the scouting industry. At the beginning of the 2019 season, teams employed 1,909 scouts across their amateur, professional and international departments. That includes all manner of scouts, from special assistants to directors to crosscheckers to pro scouts to area scouts. In 2021, that number is down to 1,756. All scout head counts referenced in this story were sourced from team media guides and the annual Baseball America Directory. There are a number of factors at play here, not the least of which is the continuing coronavirus pandemic, which led to a 60-game major league season and canceled minor league season in 2020. The lost revenue across the sport led to pay cuts, furloughs and layoffs in teams’ business, scouting and baseball operations departments. The pandemic wasn’t the only factor, though. For years, the proliferation of data and technology and the corresponding cost savings led several teams to make massive cuts to their scouting groups. Entering the 2019 season, for example, the Astros employed a combined three people with the titles pro scout, advance scout, special assignment scout or special assistant. Just 10 years earlier, Houston’s total number of people with those titles was 42. The Astros are the most famous example, but they’re far from alone in reducing the scope of their scouting staffs. From 2019 to 2021, seven teams reduced their scouting staffs by double-digits across all departments. The Rays and Brewers were each down by 10 scouts, the Dodgers and Giants each were down 13, the Cubs were down 20 and the Angels and Mariners were down 23 apiece. The decreases by those teams don’t paint the whole picture. The Dodgers and Rays, still have 71 scouts apiece, tied with the Royals for fifth in the game. The Reds, Red Sox, D-backs and Yankees each employ more than 75 scouts throughout all levels. By and large, scouting departments are still much larger
than they were in 2009. That year, teams employed a combined 1,332 scouts, or 424 fewer than today, even after the pandemic-fueled downsizing. Just four teams employ fewer scouts today than they did in 2009 thanks in part to significant growth in international scouting departments. The Astros are down 43 people in scouting. The Orioles are down 11. The Angels are down seven, and the Mariners are down five. Many of the scouts let go during the cuts over the last year are older and more experienced, meaning they commanded high salaries. Dave Yoakum of the White Sox—a founding member and 2010 inductee of the Professional Baseball Scouts Hall of Fame—was in his 29th season with the organization when he was let go. Brad Sloan of the Red Sox had been a scout for 40 years at the time of his dismissal. Pete Mackanin, one of just eight people to have played, managed and scouted with the Phillies, was let go in 2020 as well. The Phillies also let go of special assignment scouts Howie Freiling and Dave Hollins. Freiling had been a minor league manager or scout since 1991. Hollins won a pennant with the Phillies in 1993 and had been a coach or scout since 2004. Even though scouting staffs are still well populated compared with where they were in 2009, there’s a concern that even when the pandemic is in the rear-view mirror, teams may still opt to downsize their departments in the name of more cost-efficient methods, like video scouting or analytically driven evaluation, in place of people. “It’s not just the game. It’s our country writ large. There’s such a death of expertise. It doesn’t matter to people anymore,” one scout said. “. . . It doesn’t matter to people who are hired or who are hiring, because they just think they can do it better. There’s just there’s no respect for people who have been there and done it.” —Josh Norris
GOING UP Seven MLB organizations have added to their scouting departments or maintained since 2019.
Pirates Blue Jays Astros Twins Rangers Red Sox Mets
+17 +5 +4 +3 +3 +0 +0
GOING DOWN And there are seven MLB organizations that have cut 10 or more scouts since 2019. Numbers include directors and assistant directors of scouting departments, special assignment scouts and assistants, pro, amateur and international departments and are based on media guides.
Mariners Angels Cubs Giants Dodgers Rays Brewers
–23 –23 –20 –13 –13 –10 –10
front of you. 21
One aspect is simply about making relation-
From the field to the booth
ships with other people throughout the game.
analytics. They use the data they provide in
Scouts spend hundreds of nights on the road at
order to make their reports better. Analytics
Scouts are increasingly finding ways to share their knowledge of the game behind the microphone
games, often seeing the same people from city
and data are a complement—not a substitute–
to city, ballpark to ballpark.
for in-person scouting.
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
Over those years, people grow into new
“It’s the difference between scouting the
roles in the game. Players become coaches and
pitch and scouting the pitcher,” the third scout
coaches become scouts and executives, and a
said. “TrackMan or Rapsodo, all that stuff, it
good scout can get to know some of those peo-
can scout the pitch, but the pitch doesn’t win
ple along the way and gain wisdom in the pro-
games—the pitcher wins games . . . Scouting
cess. That information can sometimes be used
the pitch that he throws is important, but you
to paint an even fuller picture of a player.
scout the pitcher.
“That’s so much of what our job is about,”
“I’m not saying we go there and we can look
a second scout said, “just treating people the
inside people’s souls, but it’s all part of it—and
right way and being a human being and getting
it’s what’s been going on forever. And now
to know people and managing relationships.
we’ve replaced wisdom with information.”
That’s how you find so much out, because of
While teams like the Braves, Astros and
your relationships.”
Orioles have made the decisions to get rid of all
Another factor to be considered
or nearly all of their pro scouts,
when looking at the scouting cut-
R U N D OW N
backs is which scouts and executives are losing their jobs. In a lot of cases, it’s senior members of teams who have accumulated decades in the game, as well as the corresponding salaries and titles. “It’s what’s been going on
other clubs—like the Brewers and Mariners—have gone in a differ-
As positions are eliminated, in part because of the streamlined minor leagues, scouts are being tasked with a mix of professional, amateur and international coverage.
ent direction. They’ve decided to combine their departments and have their scouts responsible for covering a mix of professional, amateur and international baseball. “On a Tuesday, I might be at
forever, and now we’ve replaced
Texas A&M seeing whoever’s
wisdom with information,” a
pitching on Tuesday. And then
third scout said. “But there’s not a lot of gray-
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, I might be in
haired guys working anymore. And if you want
the (former) Midwest League,” said one scout
to say the gray-haired guys are narrow-minded
whose organization is considering such a move.
and they don’t take to change, that’s not true.
“Then Saturday, I might be in the
“That’s an easy way to get what you want, which is all of your buddies who think the exact
Dominican Republic.” On its face, that doesn’t seem like the worst
same way you think in, and get those (gray-
thing. Getting a wider range of eyes on play-
haired) guys out.”
ers helps add perspective to the final picture.
A decade ago, the narrative was roughly the
The Phillies bringing Charlie Manuel—and his
same as it is now. Back then, it was framed as
decades of experience in the game—in to watch
stats versus scouts. Now, it’s analytics versus
a top draft target or possible trade acquisition
scouts, in some sort of overblown battle of
adds an element of perspective to the
extremes with one method incontrovertibly
final decision.
superior. Neither case has been true, and every scout Baseball America spoke to for this story agreed
However, this practice has often led to scouts getting let go, which means fewer eyes on more players.
that analytics and video provide valuable
“You can only streamline so much,” the
sources of information that help them do
first scout said. “It’s hard to polish a turd at
their job better.
some point.”
BY THE NUMBERS: SCOUT COUNT Here’s a look at the overall head counts for scouting departments among major league organizations going back more than 20 years. Scouts who split their time between amateur and pro coverage were halved among both departments. Totals are from team media guides and the annual Baseball America Directory.
Year 1999 2009 2019 2021
Directors/ Special Assistants/ Pro Amateur International Assistant Directors Special Assignment Scouts Scouts Scouts 72 68 122 643 71 131 91 219 623 268 173 143 329.5 731.5 532 184 95 278 658 541
Total Scouts 976 1,332 1,909 1,756
JONATHAN DANIEL/GETTY IMAGES
Over the course of the year, major league scouting departments shrunk by an average of roughly five scouts per club. Virtually all of those job losses were the results of layoffs or firings because of cost cutting during the pandemic and clubs’ continuing shift toward analytics and data. At least one scout made the choice to leave the industry on his own terms. Vinny Rottino, a nondrafted free agent out of WisconsinLa Crosse in 2003 who played parts of five seasons in the big leagues before joining the Rangers’ pro scouting department in 2017, decided during the pandemic that it was time to leave scouting—but not the game—behind. The long, arduous months of near-nonstop travel had worn on him in prior years, especially with a young family at home. The pandemic pushed him over the edge. “I don’t know if I would have left if the pandemic didn’t happen, like actually pulled the trigger,” Rottino said, “because the fear factor of ‘What if I lose my job?’ wouldn’t have been there, because I loved it.” But the pandemic did happen (and is still happening), and Rottino decided to hand in his resignation. So where does a scout go after baseball? In this case, the broadcast booth. Rangers special assistant Mike Anderson is the brother of Brewers broadcaster Brian Anderson, so Rottino already had an important connection. “Once I told Mike that I was leaving, he was like, ‘Hey, man, my brother thinks you’d be really good in the broadcast booth. Think about it,’ ” Rottino recalled. “I never even thought that would be an option so I kind of blew it off and really didn’t even think about what it would entail.” But as the time away from the game grew, the idea became more interesting. Brian Anderson helped Rottino get a tryout with Bally’s Sports Wisconsin. Things went well, and now he and Anderson are teammates on Brewers broadcasts. Rottino is not the first scout to wind up behind a microphone. Angels pro scout Ben Francisco has called college games on the Pac-12 Network this season, and Giants pro scout Ellis Burks is also a member of the New England Sports Network broadcast team. Athletics pro scout Shooty Babitt also provides analysis for Oakland games on NBC Sports California, and former A’s third baseman Eric Chavez at one point doubled as a broadcaster for the A’s and a special assignment scout for the Yankees. Why is the broadcast booth such a favored landing spot for scouts? When baseball has been the only thing you’ve known for your entire working life, your résumé isn’t always attractive to employers outside of the sport. “It’s hard to get a job, especially if you’ve never had a job before outside of the game,” said Rottino, who also works in orthodontic device sales. “I mean, I had no experience doing anything else other than playing baseball and scouting. And so that doesn’t look real attractive on a résumé in terms of your experience level to get something that can support a family of five, with one income.” Scouts have accumulated a wealth of wisdom during their time in the game. More and more frequently, they’re sharing that knowledge from the broadcast booth. —Josh Norris
22
To make it even clearer: Scouts do not reject
Another kind of streamlining hurt scouting as well. When the minor
way they did for instructional league last fall.
leagues were reorganized and 40 teams were eliminated, that left fewer
In both cases, the rule was simple: Teams
teams to scout, which in turn led to the downsizing in departments the
could deny opposing scouts entry into their
any tools they have at their disposal to help
sport saw in the offseason.
complexes, but doing so meant their scouts
them get better at their jobs. Ultimately, that
would be barred from attending other teams’
will help their team win. After all, the grizzled
views scouts, especially on the pro side, as second-class citizens. While
games. This led to some pro scouts continuing
baseball lifer and the fresh-faced analyst both
their peers in amateur departments were allowed to scout in-person last
to sit on the bench while their peers went
want the same thing: to be sized for a World
summer, pro scouts were limited to video work during the MLB regular
back to work.
Series ring at the end of the season.
Beyond the layoffs and firings, there’s a general sentiment that MLB
season and postseason.
“(MLB is) not (friendly toward) scouting.
Analytics and data are not going anywhere. Scouts know this, and they are willing to use
All the scouting industry is asking is that
It wasn’t until instructional league in the fall that scouts were allowed
They don’t seem to care much about us,” the
teams not use analytics as a cudgel in the name
to pack their radar guns and stopwatches and head for Arizona or Florida
third scout said. “The perfect example is that
of cost savings to get rid of people who have
for their first in-person looks at players since the baseball world shut
they’ve created uniform Covid protocols for
years of experience identifying winning players.
down in March 2020.
everything, and we’re waiting and waiting and
The aspect that really gets stuck in the craw of scouts is the lack of
Scouts can’t always see things at the same
waiting and waiting. And then a week before
granular level as TrackMan or Hawkeye or
communication from the MLB league office. Before spring training began
(they say), ‘Yeah, we don’t want to do this. You
Rapsodo, but none of those tracking services
this season, scouts weren’t 100% sure whether they would be let back into
(teams) figure it out on your own.’
can quantify mental toughness or work ethic or
ballparks. There was optimism, but not certainty. Eventually, MLB gave the go-ahead for scouts to attend spring training games. A month later, when minor league spring training began, teams were
“That should tell you all you need to know
develop relationships throughout the sport to
about what MLB thinks about us. We were the
get the key piece of information that might lead
one group of people who were not important
to a franchise-altering acquisition.
left in the same position of having to repeatedly ask for a blanket policy
enough for them to drill down for a day and
about what their scouts were and were not allowed to do at teams’ com-
create proper protocols and distribute them
job is to paint the picture and dream. This
plexes in Arizona and Florida.
to each club. Instead, each team was left
offseason, teams got rid of a whole lot
(on its own).”
of dreamers. Q
This time, MLB left it up to individual clubs to decide, in much the same
One of the simplest descriptions of a scout’s
23
BRIAN WESTERHOLT FOUR SEAM IMAGES
24
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
Led by players like third-year sophomore center fielder Christian Franklin, Arkansas is one of the leaders of the home run vanguard in college baseball. The Razorbacks’ lineup is not as physically imposing as some, and isn’t centered on one slugger. Arkansas hitters just drive the ball consistently.
H I T T I N G E VO LU T I O N
BOMBS AWAY Home runs are being hit at near historic levels in college baseball, but this time the surge is not the result of equipment changes by
W
TEDDY CAHILL
ith top-ranked Arkansas trail-
Thompson said it was the farthest ball he’s
ing Georgia by a run in the
ever seen hit at Baum-Walker Stadium. While he
sixth inning of the rubber game
hasn’t coached at Arkansas as long as Dave Van
of their early May series, DH
Horn, who is in his 19th season as head coach,
Matt Goodheart stepped to the plate to face
Thompson has worked with some impressive
lefthander Ryan Webb. Goodheart, a lefthanded
power hitters in his time, including Heston
hitter, got ahead in the count 2-0 before Webb
Kjerstad, the No. 2 overall pick in 2020.
threw him a 91 mph fastball low and on the outer half of the plate. Goodheart didn’t try to do too much with
Home runs of epic proportions and otherwise have been flying at Arkansas and across the country all season long. The Division I home run
the pitch. He got his bat extended and rocketed
rate has jumped from 0.75 per game in 2019, the
the ball to center field, taking aim at the light
last full college season, to 0.85 per game in 2021.
pole just to the left of the batter’s eye at Baum-
Florida State catcher Mat Nelson surged to the
Walker Stadium. By some estimates, the ball
top of the home run leaderboard in April. By May
hit three-quarters of the way up the stanchion,
2 he had hit his 20th home run of the season.
higher than the batter’s eye. TrackMan mea-
Nevada third baseman Tyler Bosetti homered in
sured the home run to have traveled 460 feet
an NCAA record nine straight games starting in
with an exit velocity of 107 mph.
late April. Texas Tech second baseman Jace Jung
It was, by any definition, a nuke.
slugged three home runs in a game twice
“I was like, ‘Oh my gosh,’ ” Arkansas hitting
this season.
coach Nate Thompson said. “It was ridiculous.
The data and the anecdotes make it clear:
The wind didn’t hurt it, I know that, but I was
the home run is a fact of life in college baseball
blown away.”
in 2021. 25
entirely ruled out.
older than they ever have been. That is a result
given time can hit one,” Arizona State hitting
Bat manufacturers, for instance, have had
coach Michael Earley said. “Keeping them to
a decade to adjust to the BBCOR standard and
relief to all players on 2020 rosters because the
solo shots is the key, because they’re going
could be producing bats with bigger sweet
coronavirus pandemic wiped out the season.
to happen.”
spots or that hold up better—though the intro-
That enabled seniors to return to school for a
duction of in-season bat testing should rule out
fifth year.
An increase in home run rate can be found at other levels of college baseball as well and, for
the possibility of anything nefarious being at
once, equipment is not believed to be the root
the root of the increase.
cause. Previous significant changes to the home
But the answer for why home runs have
of the NCAA’s decision to extend eligibility
Also a factor is Major League Baseball’s decision to cut the 2020 draft to just five rounds, keeping more players in school. With older,
run rate in college baseball have been brought
increased by an average of 12.5% per game
more experienced, more physically developed
on by a change to the bat standards or, most
likely lies elsewhere.
hitters in college, it follows that more home
recently, a change to a flat-seam baseball. Subtle equipment changes probably can’t be 26
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
Theories abound around the game. Some note that college baseball rosters this season are
runs would result. Another common refrain was the increase
With an NCAA-record 7.12 runs per game and 1.06 home runs per game, the 1998 season represented the peak of “gorilla ball.” Nothing epitomized the era quite like the 1998 College World Series final in which Southern California defeated Arizona State by a score of 21-14. VINCENT LAFORET/GETTY IMAGES
“I feel like you notice any given player at any
The switch from wood bats to aluminum, and various restrictions made to those bats, have accounted for most of the shifts in college baseball’s home run environment. That doesn’t appear to the case in 2021, and yet homers are up sharply.
HOW THE COLLEGE GAME HAS CHANGED Rates for scoring and home runs in Division I, 1970-2021
8.00 7.50
Runs Per Game
Home Runs Per Game
7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0.00
Aluminum Bat
Flat-seam Incomplete season ball
BESR bat standards BBCOR bat
Through May 16
The constantly evolving college game In the past, dramatic shifts in run-scoring levels had been preceded by equipment changes Change has been a constant part of college baseball. But unlike Major League Baseball, where there has long been plenty of speculation and intrigue around changes MLB may or may not have made to the baseball to alter the offensive environment, college baseball has been much more transparent about its tweaks. College baseball has been much more willing to pass rules to adjust the equipment and bring the game back in line with its desired environment. Most notably, in 1974 college baseball switched from wood bats to metal. The switch was done partly to cut costs—metal bats last much longer than wood—but also to boost the offense of a game that was somewhat stagnant. The change almost immediately added another run per game. And home runs per game went up 57% in just four seasons. Batting averages around college baseball soared from .266 in 1973 to .300 in 1981. College baseball remained in a relatively static offensive environment for much of the 1980s and early 1990s. But the rise of “gorilla ball” in the late 1990s and better and better metal bats led to an offensive explosion that mimicked what was going on in the major leagues, specifically the 1998 home run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. In 1998, Division I teams averaged more than a home run per game for the first time in NCAA recorded statistical history.
Southern California beat Arizona State 21-14 in the College World Series final that year, and teams averaged 7.12 runs per game. Faced with football-like scores and many baseballs disappearing over the outfield fences, college baseball collectively decided that it had too much of a good thing. Concerns over the safety of pitchers and infielders on the receiving end of line drives added to the decision to tone down the bats. The next year, college baseball adopted a new bat standard. The ball exit speed ratio—or BESR—standard required that all bats be measured for the ratio of exit speed they produced compared to velocity of the pitch and the bat speed of a swing. They also mandated that bats could no longer have a weight that was more than three ounces less than the length of the bat, meaning that a 34-inch bat had to weigh 31 ounces or more. Home runs quickly decreased, but not for long. By 2007 and 2008, many players and teams had figured out that many of the composite bats that met BESR standards would perform better as they aged. These “rolled” bats would produce more distance and higher exit velocities than a standard bat because the bat would become more flexible and create a trampoline effect. By late 2008, there were stories being shared of entire col-
lege teams using one or two bats. If a team had a hot bat, it wanted to use it until it cracked. The home run rate returned to a rate last seen in the era of gorilla ball. In 2009 and 2010, runs per game in college baseball, which had dipped as low as 6.1 from 2003 to 2007, skyrocketed back to 6.9 runs per game. The home run rate in 2009 was 41% higher than it was in 2007. In 2009, the NCAA tested 25 bats at the College World Series. Although all of those bats had met BESR standards when new, it found that 20 of the 25 bats failed to meet the BESR standards when retested after being used in games. “While the committee does not believe tampering or altering of bats is widespread, there is evidence that it has occurred,” said UC Santa Barbara head coach Bob Brontsema, head of the NCAA rules committee in 2009. “The larger issue here is that the performance of composite bats improves through repeated, normal use, and these bats often exceed acceptable levels.” So the NCAA stepped in again. The BESR standard was replaced by the batted ball coefficient of restitution—or BBCOR—standard in 2011. The new standard ensured that the trampoline effect of bats was strictly controlled to ensure that they more closely replicated the performance of a wood bat. In one year, the home run rate in Division I was cut by 44%. Runs per game were cut 20%. And before long, the NCAA realized it had potentially overshot the mark and needed to adjust again. UCLA, the 2013 College World Series champions, hit 19 home runs as a team that year. Pat Valaika led the team with five home runs, and Kevin Kramer was the only other Bruins hitter with more than two homers. By 2014, the home run rate around Division I was 0.39 per game, lower than it was in the final years of the wood bat era in the early 1970s. In 2014, batters hit one home run every 98 plate appearances. In 2010, they had hit one every 43 plate appearances. So once again, the NCAA changed the rules to adjust the game. This time it lowered the seams on the baseball. The new ball had less drag than the old one. As a result, fly balls traveled farther. The change made an immediate effect. The home run rate per game in 2015 was up 44% from what it was in 2014. Runs per game saw a similar jump. But those bumps brought the game back in line with where it has been for much of the past four decades. This year, the college game is changing quickly and relatively dramatically without any changes in equipment. The ball has not been changed since the seams were lowered. Bats are tested not only before the season, but also before series to ensure they comply with regulations. Despite that, the home run rate is back to the levels last seen in the days right before the NCAA changed the bat standards. But with batting averages plunging and strikeout rates soaring, those home runs are what is keeping the runs scored rate from dipping to rates not seen since the early 1970s. —J.J. Cooper
27
of velocity in the game, which could lead to a power surge in two ways. The first is the old adage that the pitcher supplies the power for a hitter, and the faster a pitch comes in, the faster it will go out. The second way leads to an explanation that has commonly been used to explain an uptick in home runs in the major leagues: if pitchers are throwing harder and with better stuff, hits and walks become increasingly difficult to string together. Therefore, the best way to score is to drive the ball, especially for home runs. That leads to a change in approach, which leads to more home runs. Increasing launch angle and adding lift to a swing is something that’s been a hot topic in the major leagues for several years. As it has become more prevalent at that level, it has filtered down to lower levels of baseball and to younger players. When college coaches go out to recruit, they are more often encountering players with uppercut swings, emulating big league stars. Thompson doesn’t take a cookie-cutter approach with the Razorbacks’ hitters and isn’t teaching severe uppercut swings. But he wants all of his hitters to learn how to drive the ball consistently. “It’s hard to win in the (Southeastern Conference) if you don’t drive the ball and hit a lot of doubles, extra-base hits and hit the ball out of the park,” Thompson said. “Pitchers don’t walk people that much because they’re good. They’ve got strikeout stuff, and because they’re so good, it’s hard to string multiple hits in a row. Get a few guys on and someone needs to drive a baseball.” Thompson has long been a proponent of that philosophy. Before coming to Arkansas in 2018, he was the hitting coach at Missouri State and helped Jake Burger develop into one of the Thompson has been a full-time Division I
12 home runs in 38 games. What Arkansas lacks
strength in the bat and just go to work
coach for the last seven years. In the last six
in a true star slugger, it more than makes up
developing it,” he said. “We’re not trying to
seasons, his teams have never ranked worse
for in depth.
turn every guy into a power hitter. We’re not
than 13th nationally in home runs. This year’s Arkansas team has been even
Goodheart was one of five players in the lineup with 10 or more home runs, a group that
trying to make Robert Moore into a big-time power slugger.
better. In mid-May, it was averaging 1.72 home
also includes second baseman Robert Moore, a
runs per game, making it one of four teams this
second-year freshman listed at 5-foot-9, 170
create power. I think the proper swing does
season averaging more home runs per game
pounds, and center fielder Christian Franklin,
create power. You’re going to get that along
than all but one team—Tennessee Tech in
a third-year sophomore listed at 5-foot-11,
with hitting for average, being a better player
2018—since the BBCOR bats were introduced
195 pounds.
in general.
a decade ago. Arkansas was doing that despite Kjerstad
As deep and as powerful as the Arkansas
“But I don’t believe the proper swing doesn’t
“When you’ve got a guy with strength in the
lineup is, it was not the most physically impos-
bat, who knows how to leverage the baseball,
moving on to professional baseball a year ago
ing in the country. But it was slugging homers
you don’t have to be big.”
and, through the first 80% of the regular sea-
at a rate few teams can match. That’s just fine
son, without a hitter who ranked in the top 20
with Thompson. He’s not trying to create a
on a nightly basis in MLB has come to the col-
individually in home runs.
lineup of mashers—he wants good, all-around
lege game. It’s not the high-octane gorilla ball
hitters who can drive the baseball.
of the 1990s, but the home run is back in col-
Goodheart, a fourth-year junior listed at a wiry 6-foot-1, 185 pounds, led Arkansas with 28
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
“We recruit guys with the ability to hit and
The contemporary approach to baseball seen
lege baseball. ■
Texas Tech freshman second baseman Jace Jung, the younger brother of former Red Raiders star and current Rangers prospect Josh Jung, has twice hit three home runs in a game this season.
BOB LEVEY/GETTY IMAGES; LESLIE PLAZA JOHNSON/ICON SPORTSWIRE VIA GETTY IMAGES
country’s premier power threats.
Major league hitters have determined that the only way to survive in an era of extreme velocity is to make their hits count, even if they produce fewer of them. The same phenomenon is now clear in the minor leagues and college baseball.
Trickle-down effect Home runs and strikeouts are up. Batting average is down. The refrain is common across baseball as young players emulate the big league style of play. The state of play in Major League Baseball—and the path it is on—has been a topic of frequent discussion. Velocity and strikeouts are way up. So are walks. Batting averages keep falling, but in recent years, hitters have compensated by hitting for more power. Until the ball was tweaked for the 2021 season, home run rates had steadily risen. Those who love the MLB product in 2021 say the game is never more exciting than when a pitcher and batter are battling, power versus power. Those who hate it say that now innings can go by without anyone other than the pitcher, catcher and hitter getting involved in the game. Like it or not, MLB in 2021 is seeing more strikeouts and nearly as many walks than ever. There are plenty of home runs and fewer balls in play, mixed in with some of the lowest batting averages in history. But that’s only seeing one part of a much bigger story. Because everything said about MLB can also be said about college and minor league baseball. Across the minor leagues, hitters were hitting .235 over the first two weeks of the season. While that number may climb as hitters regain their timing and the weather warms, minor league hitters collectively have not hit under .250 in a single
season of the 21st century. In college baseball, the 2021 season was on pace to finish with the lowest batting average across Division I that the NCAA had seen since it switched to metal bats in 1974. This has been a developing trend. Brian Cartwright, data analyst for the Oliver player projections, first brought to our attention that the home run rate across all three levels of NCAA baseball was increasing dramatically. The strikeout and walk rates were also climbing quickly. Baseball as a game rarely stays static, and there have been plenty of times in the past when the run scoring, hitting or pitching environments have changed. Often, the game has been deliberately changed by adjustments in the rules, the bats or the balls. MLB tweaked its baseball slightly this year, but in the minor league and college, the bats, balls and other equipment has not changed. And what is happening now seems to be at a pace beyond what we have seen in the past. For instance, from 1970 to 2006, Major League Baseball’s strikeout rate waxed and waned, most every year finishing at roughly 15 or 16% of plate appearances would end in a strikeout. But from 2007 to now, the MLB strikeout rate has risen steadily to rates that the game has never seen before. As pitch-
ers throw progressively harder and learn how to better design and sequence their pitches, they are missing more and more bats. These days, MLB hitters are striking out in 24% of all plate appearances. As hitters swing and miss more often, they also have learned that the optimal way to score runs is often to accept that strikeouts are part of today’s game, but when they do hit the ball, it’s best to hit it hard and high. So home runs and strikeouts are up, and batting averages are way down. The same training programs and approaches that have taken over the major leagues have trickled down to the minors and college baseball as well. In college baseball, the strikeout rate sat around 16% through the rise of offenses in the late 2000s. It remained around that same 16% level as recently as 2014. While MLB’s strikeout rate has climbed eight percentage points in the past 16 seasons—going from 16.4% in 2005 to 24% in 2021—college baseball’s strikeout rate has climbed five percentage points in just seven years. It has gone from 16.3% in 2014 to 21.7% in 2021. One of the main reasons for this is the steady improvement in velocity, as well as a corresponding improvement in secondary pitches. The average Southeast Conference pitcher in 2021 sits at 91 mph with his fastball. That’s equal to what the average MLB pitcher threw in 2007. With pitchers throwing harder and spinning better breaking balls, batting averages are plunging around college baseball. With just a few weeks left in the college season, it seemed likely that the batting average for Division I baseball in 2021 will be the lowest since the NCAA switched to metal bats in 1974. The .266 batting average at D-I as of mid May is the same as it was in 1973, the final year that teams used wooden bats. Hitters have responded by hitting for more power in the less frequent times they make contact. Home runs per game are on pace to be at the highest level since the BESR bats of the late 2000s. The percentage of batted balls that became home runs was 3.4%, which is higher than it was in 2010, the last year of the BESR bat era. But there are significantly fewer balls in play. From 2008 to 2014, roughly three of every four plate appearances in college resulted in a ball put in play. Nowadays, it’s edging quite close to being two out of every three. A full 32% of 2021 Division I plate appearances resulted in a walk or a strikeout. That trend was even more exacerbated in 2021 in the minor leagues, where more than 40% of plate appearances had resulted in a walk or strikeout through the first two weeks of the season. If these trends continue, expect to see more no-hitters, more pitchers racking up double-digit strikeout games—but also more home run records and fewer balls put into play. But the next time someone mentions these trends in Major League Baseball, tell them they can more accurately say this is the trend for baseball as a whole. —J.J. Cooper
29
The Red Sox acquired shortstop Jeter Downs from the Dodgers as the centerpiece of the Mookie Betts deal. He played his first official games for the Boston organization this season at Triple-A Worcester.
PAGE 31
American League O A prized Tigers pitcher shortened his arm action and added a new pitch as he eyes his big league debut PAGE 32 O A 22-year-old righthander might be the solution to the Twins’ velocity problem PAGE 33
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ADAM GLANZMAN/MLB PHOTOS VIA GETTY IMAGES; RON VESELY/GETTY IMAGES
O A young Blue Jays starter steps up in a big moment PAGE 34
AMERICAN LEAGUE
BALTIMORE ORIOLES As the Orioles keep filtering young pitchers onto the major league roster, Kyle Bradish is waiting his turn and is unfazed by the lack of attention. The Orioles recognize the 24-year-old righthander’s talents and potential. They aren’t ignoring him in favor of more highly rated prospects. The hype is most intense for first-rounders Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall, the system’s top two pitching prospects. Lefthander Zac Lowther made his major league debut in April. Righthander Michael Baumann also is on the clock for a rotation that debuted Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer and Bruce Zimmermann in 2020. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound Bradish impressed the Orioles with his past results in the Angels organization prior to the Dylan Bundy trade. His work at the Bowie alternate training site helped him emerge as one of the top pitchers, and he continued to shine at minor league spring training. Bradish, a 2018 fourth-rounder from New Mexico State, went 6-7, 4.28 with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings at High-A Inland Empire in 2019. After the season he was traded to the Angels as part of the return for Bundy. The Orioles assigned Bradish to Double-A Bowie this year. “Bradish in particular is somebody that I have liked dating back to the 2018 draft,” Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said after the trade. “He went straight to the (High-A) Cal League, which is a nasty place to pitch, and pitched (101) innings and struck out 120 hitters.” Elias gives Bradish extra credit for coming so far, so fast from the small Western Athletic Conference. The compliments increased for Bradish after the Orioles placed him on their alternate site roster in early August. Multiple people in the organization singled him out as a standout performer, based largely on the quality of his low-90s cutting, riding fastball that touches 96 mph. —ROCH KUBATKO
BOSTON RED SOX On May 4, nearly 15 months into his tenure with the Red Sox, Jeter Downs finally played an official game for his third organization, in the process becoming the first shortstop in the history of the Triple-A Worcester Red Sox. “It’s been a fun journey—a weird one,” the 22-year-old said. A breakthrough campaign in the Dodgers’ system in 2019—following a
trade from the Reds in December 2018— helped bring Downs to Boston. In 2019, the righthanded hitter adjusted his approach to drive the ball in the air with greater frequency to right-center field. In 119 games at High-A and Double-A, Downs hit .276/.362/.526 with 24 home runs, 35 doubles and 24 stolen bases. His advanced pitch-recognition and feel for the strike zone, combined with tremendous bat speed that bought extra time for his swing decisions, made him one of the best prospects in the Dodgers system—and a target for the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts deal. Inclusion in a blockbuster trade naturally drew attention to Downs, but that spotlight was effectively shut off by the 2020 minor league shutdown. At the alternate training site, the 5-foot-11, 195-pound Downs showed the traits of a top prospect but also some inconsistency. “I think he has a strong arm. He has good instincts in the field. He shows things in practice and our intrasquads where you say, ‘That’s great,’ ” Worcester hitting coach Rich Gedman said. “(But) I’ve been looking for a little more than I’ve seen so far . . . I think the potential is there, but I don’t just want to sit here and say that he’ll be our (big league) shortstop in the middle of the year, or our second baseman.” Downs will play both middle infield positions this season. His combination of power and speed give him a ceiling of an above-average player. —ALEX SPEIER
CHICAGO WHITE SOX Spending last summer in Schaumburg, Ill., was never on 25-year-old first baseman Gavin Sheets’ early radar. All the same, Sheets not being at the Frontier League facility turned out to be a big disappointment. After Covid wiped out 2020 minor league season, major league teams huddled their top prospects at alternate training sites. The White Sox settled on Schaumburg, a quick commute from Guaranteed Rate Field. Sheets did not receive an invite, and he used it as motivation. “It was a tough year,” said Sheets, a 2017 second-rounder out of Wake Forest. “It was tough mentally, tough physically to lose a year of development, but a lot of good came from it that I didn’t see at the time.” Sheets made the most of the down time. The natural first baseman worked with a trainer and shed more than a dozen pounds and reported to spring training at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds. He also brought an outfielder’s mitt to camp.
White Sox first baseman Gavin Sheets used his alternate training site snub as motivation to learn to play left field.
Looking to make a better impression by being a more versatile player, Sheets shaped up his body, increased his speed and showed he can play left field. In one Cactus League game, Sheets made a standout running catch in the gap that impressed White Sox ace Lucas Giolito. “That was amazing,” Giolito said. “He bailed me out right there. I love to see our younger guys, our prospects making strides on offense and defense. He looked great out there, looked like a natural left fielder” Sheets has always had a steady bat and sharp eye at the plate. The son of former major leaguer Larry Sheets, Gavin launching 16 home runs in 126 games for Double-A Birmingham in 2019. Ticketed for Triple-A Charlotte this season, Sheets made an instant impression on manager White Sox Tony La Russa, who called him a “smart, high-IQ” player, and the major league staff this spring. “Sheets really made a lot of adjustments,” Chicago hitting coach Frank Menechino said. “He really caught my eye coming in and changing his load and being early and soft. It really looks good.” —SCOT GREGOR
CLEVELAND INDIANS Major league debuts are always exciting, but Sam Hentges’ debut was particularly noticeable because he struck out the side.
The Indians called up the 24-year-old lefthander on April 17 and he made his debut three days later against the White Sox. It was the culmination of a long road traveled by Hentges, a 2014 fourth-rounder out of high school in Arden Hills, Minn. Hentges spent six years in the Indians’ system, recording a 4.34 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts per nine in 406.2 innings. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016. Hentges entered his debut in the seventh inning and struck out the first two batters he faced: Adam Eaton and Yoan Moncada. Jose Abreu then belted a solo home run, but Hentges ended the inning by striking out Leury Garcia. “It was very cool,” said Hentges, who relied mostly on his mid-90s fastball and a well-shaped curveball. “Obviously I’ve waited a long time for this moment. It’s an adjustment, but it was nice just to get out there in a big league game and face big league hitters. A dream come true.” Hentges worked as a starter in the minors, but with Cleveland’s strong rotation, he initially pitched in relief before making his first start on May 12. The 6-foot-6, 245-pound Hentges spent last season at the alternate training site and appeared in some exhibition games in Columbus this spring. Indians manager Terry Francona was impressed by Hentges’ debut and excited about the lefthander’s future. “He looked the part out there, which was good because his stuff is really good,” Francona said. “You’re going to look up 31
Organization Reports
— JIM INGRAHAM
DETROIT TIGERS When it comes to adapting to the ever-changing landscape of professional baseball, righthander Matt Manning has never been one for panic. In fact, the 23-year-old has seemingly mastered the art of taking it all in stride. When the coronavirus pandemic upended spring training in 2020, Manning stayed at the Tigers’ complex in Lakeland, Fla., to keep his momentum while Major League Baseball scrambled to restructure the skeleton of a regular season. The obstacles weren’t going anywhere, so for the 6-foot-6, 195-pound Manning, it was business as usual. “I thought it was pretty easy because I stayed down here in Lakeland getting ready,” Manning said. “With all this stuff (the Tigers) had available and the precautions we were taking, they made it pretty easy. “I think the only thing I lost from last year was just throwing. Just losing a year of getting time at Triple-A. I think it put me back just a little bit in terms of that, but I’m right where I need to be at this point.” Fast-forward to August and Manning was faced with another obstacle, this time in the form of a forearm strain, ultimately shutting down the 2016 first-rounder from Sheldon High in Sacramento for the rest of the year. Manning wasn’t derailed, staying in Lakeland to return to form. “I was going to have to throw all year long just to build up my arm strength. And so I did (my throwing program),” Manning said. “I changed up my arm path just a little bit—the way I take out the ball and don’t stab—and just shortened it up. That helped a lot with how I’ve been feeling.” Entering a healthy 2021, Manning added a hard slider to his arsenal while throwing bullpens to start the year. “I think (the slider will) help my pitches tunnel a little better and help my curveball with just something more I can throw to get people guessing.” Since turning pro, Manning has had to learn to trust the process as much as anyone. Don’t expect him to lose focus. —EMILY WALDON
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JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
Tigers righthander Matt Manning emerged from a trying 2020 season to earn the Opening Day start for Triple-A Toledo.
HOUSTON ASTROS Catching can dominate talk about the Astros’ farm system. Houston drafted Korey Lee out of California in the first round in 2019. He now ranks among the system’s top prospects. Nine rounds later, the Astros selected Southern California catcher CJ Stubbs, who is the younger brother of Garrett Stubbs, who was drafted by Houston in 2015 and made his big league debut in 2019. Both brothers attended USC. Now, the younger Stubbs’ stock is rising. He began the 2021 season at Double-A Corpus Christi, a level ahead of Lee. After assimilating well during his first minor league season in 2019, the 24-year-old Stubbs shined in both instructional league and minor league spring training, giving the Astros optimism at a position where they’ve had questions. “He’s somebody who could make some noise when you look up at the performance and the fact that he’s a catcher,” Astros assistant general manager Pete Putila said. The Astros drafted Stubbs in the 10th round in 2019, betting on the projectability of a player who started out as a two-way player in college. He pitched on Tuesday nights and caught on Fridays and Saturdays. The 6-foot-3, 207-pound backstop had Tommy John surgery in 2018, ending his pitching days in favor of a career behind the plate. Though Garrett bats lefthanded and CJ from the right side, Putila notices a resem-
blance in the brothers’ swings. Both have a very simple setup with little movement, allowing them to be direct to the ball. CJ hit .249/.340/.459 in 55 games across short-season Tri-City and Low-A Quad Cities in 2019. He struck out 50 times and worked 22 walks. Putila called CJ Stubbs’ defense “solid-average, at least” and lauded the quickness he displays behind the plate. He caught 25% of basestealers in 2019 with what Putila called a “solid arm.” —CHANDLER ROME
KANSAS CITY ROYALS Until he faced the Rangers’ High-A group in minor league spring training, Royals lefthander Asa Lacy had yet to face opposing hitters as a pro. The 21-year-old Lacy had participated in summer and fall programs at Kauffman Stadium in 2020 before reporting to big league spring training this year, but his only game activity had come in intrasquad contests and live batting practice sessions. “It felt amazing to get out there with all of my teammates, playing against somebody else for a change,” Lacy said after his two-inning outing. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound Lacy turned in an impressive outing, touching 98 mph with his fastball with sharp downward tilt. He also mixed in a plus changeup and curveball, getting a swing and miss on one of the
breaking pitches. A scout from a rival American League organization called Lacy’s arsenal “weapons-grade and nasty,” commenting that his pure stuff plays in the big leagues now. While he didn’t get on the mound during big league spring training, Lacy believes the experience was valuable, especially the time he spent around veteran pitchers Mike Minor, Wade Davis and Danny Duffy. When Lacy played toss with Davis, the veteran reliever showed Lacy the grip he uses with his cutter. It was especially beneficial for Lacy since improving his sharp slider was one of his goals for spring training. “It was truly an honor just to be in the same company as them and just watching them go about their business every day and how professional they are,” Lacy said. Lacy broke camp with High-A Quad Cities. But if all goes well, he may not be there for long. “Asa Lacy is a guy who’s not going to be far from the big leagues once he gets his feet under him,” Royals director of pitching performance Paul Gibson said. “We try to plot a course for each guy individually. In Asa’s case, we’re going to be looking for fastball command and his ability to be able to use all pitches.” —BILL MITCHELL
LOS ANGELES ANGELS All the tools that make D’Shawn Knowles an intriguing outfield prospect— the blazing speed, the solid defensive instincts, the strong arm, the gap-to-gap power—returned in a sleeker, more muscular package this spring. The 5-foot-11, 185-pound Knowles, who signed out of the Bahamas for $850,000 in 2017, did not work out at the team’s alternate training site in 2020. He spent most of last summer in the Bahamas and Florida. Though he didn’t play baseball competitively, the 20-year-old was not idle. He added five to seven pounds of good weight and reduced his body fat to about 10%, which was something of a pleasant surprise for the Angels. “You never know after a pandemic what these guys are going to look like when they show up,” Angels minor league field coordinator Chad Tracy said. “There’s no sample size on players coming back from a pandemic. “But (Knowles) came back and looks really physical. His body looks great. He’s in good physical shape. He’s bigger and stronger than he was before, with all the tools he had before. He used his time wisely.” When Knowles finally resumed baseball activities at the six-week instructional league last fall, he earned rave reviews for
SCOTT W. GRAU/ICON SPORTSWIRE VIA GETTY IMAGES; BILL MITCHELL
someday and see a kid that’s dealing at the major league level and then you’ll go back and look at his Double-A stats and say, ‘Wait a minute, this doesn’t fit.’ ” Hentges started to feel comfortable in the big league environment when he faced the Dodgers in a spring training start. “I was facing the World Series champions, and they had some of their big dogs out there,” he said. “It showed me that I had the ability and stuff to get big league hitters out.”
AMERICAN LEAGUE
his strong defense at three outfield spots, improved baserunning and plate discipline and ability to make more consistent contact from both sides of the plate. Knowles has a clean, compact swing from both sides. Though he showed more pop from the left side at Rookie-level Orem, where he hit .241 with six home runs, 11 doubles and four triples in 64 games in 2019, he is beginning to tap into his power potential from the right side. Knowles, who will likely reach Low-A Inland Empire but did not break camp with a team, has outstanding range and the arm to stick in right field. With improved bat-toball skills to go with his speed, he could bat leadoff. —MIKE DIGIOVANNA
MINNESOTA TWINS A month into the season, no Twins starter had thrown a pitch that reached 97 mph. In this age of velocity, that’s a problem. Righthander Blayne Enlow may be the solution. The Twins went over slot to sign Enlow for $2 million as a 2017 third-rounder from St. Amant (La.) High in order to keep him from enrolling at Louisiana State. He used the time off during the pandemic to get stronger and more athletic. The 22-year-old proved it in April, when he startled the Twins’ minor league staff by placing at the top of the team’s velocity leaders. That’s an exciting development, especially considering that Enlow’s best strikeout pitch was his top-to-bottom curveball during his first three pro seasons. “Enlow’s stuff has continued to tick up,” Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “His velocity has been comfortably in the mid 90s” during minor league spring training. Velocity was the biggest reason that the Twins’ enthusiasm about the 6-foot-3, 170pound Enlow grew last fall, when he reported to instructional league in October and began displaying a fastball that hit 97 mph. That increase—after averaging just above 92 mph late in the 2019 season—also re-energized the team’s plans for its prospect. After spending much of the 2018 and 2019 seasons in Low-A, Enlow began this season at High-A Cedar Rapids. And then? Some scouts see Enlow, who has already overcome a serious car crash that shattered his pelvis during his sophomore season in high school, quickly closing the gap on a callup to Minneapolis, especially considering the team’s shortcomings in upper-level minors rotation depth—and elite velocity. —PHIL MILLER
Athletics shortstop Robert Puason was getting his feet wet as an 18-year-old at Low-A Stockton in his first full season.
NEW YORK YANKEES When the Yankees drafted catcher Josh Breaux, his raw tools were eye-opening. He coupled huge power with top-level arm strength. But now? “He’s so much more polished,” Yankees hitting coordinator Dillon Lawson said. The Yankees have created a stable of impressive backstops who could take over for Gary Sanchez in the not-so-distant future. Atop the minds of many is 2020 first-rounder Austin Wells. Then there’s 2018 first-rounder Anthony Seigler and the budding Venezuelan talent Antonio Gomez. But at 6-foot-1, 220 pounds, Breaux’s ceiling appears just as high. Breaux, 23, was drafted in the second round in 2018 and signed for $1.5 million out of McLennan (Texas) JC. Since then, organizational hitting instructors have worked with Breaux to harness that strength and turn his swing into one that produces contact with more regularity. He worked closely, in particular, with coach Joe Migliaccio through the 2020 minor league shutdown. “What they were able to accomplish is so impressive,” Lawson said. “He just looks like such a professional hitter.” The Yankees invited Breaux to his first big league spring training this year, then assigned him to High-A Hudson Valley. “He has the raw package,” Lawson said. “We didn’t have to do anything from a power enhancement standpoint. What
we’ve been able to do is just help him use that power more effectively and in a more competitive environment.” Breaux hit .271/.324/.518 with 13 home runs in 51 games at Low-A Charleston in 2019, dealing with elbow issues that sidelined him for half the season. Behind the plate, he’s a work in progress who has improved his receiving. “The dude loves to compete every day in the cage,” Lawson said. “It’s an awesome time in the cage with him. He’ll challenge you to challenge him. He’ll ask you to throw live batting practice to him every day and then crank the pitching machines and put tough pitches in front of him. “He really loves that stuff. You couldn’t ask for more as a coach.” —BRENDAN KUTY
OAKLAND ATHLETICS For a small-revenue team, throwing $5 million at an unproven teenager is a big deal. The Athletics liked Dominican shortstop Robert Puason so much that they took the gamble back in 2019, and then they waited. And waited. Through months and months of delays caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the A’s have waited for a chance to see their 18-year-old shortstop take the field and show just what he can do. That happened this season at Low-A
Stockton. At 6-foot-3, 165 pounds, he is tall for a shortstop, but the A’s believe he has the skills to stick. “He’s a young, naturally talented shortstop,” A’s farm director Ed Sprague said. “He can play—he needs to play. His instincts are fine. He moves around well and has a good arm.” Puason ranked as the No. 2 international prospect in 2019 when he showed enticing tools. He is a lean, lanky, switch-hitter gifted with the kind of quickness that should keep him in the middle of the diamond. His swing from both sides of the plate sprays line drives all over the field. Since signing, Puason has been limited to games at instructional league, the alternate training site and spring training. As with most prospects, there is a learning process ahead. “He can flash a great play, then drop a routine two-hopper,” Sprague said. “He tries to get too quick; he tries to get too fancy. When he learns how to get consistent and use his skill set, he’ll be fine. Derek Jeter made 56 errors his first season, so you don’t worry about that now.” It will be about developing focus and learning the wiles of the game as Puason begins his journey. Grading tools is difficult this early, but Puason appears to be slightly above-average with his speed and arm. His swing is geared for more line drives than homers, but that could change as he develops his body and gains maturity. Now begins the march to see how those skills will translate into performance. —CASEY TEFERTILLER
SEATTLE MARINERS Barring injury, the question surrounding righthander Logan Gilbert this spring was not if he will make the big leagues this season—but when. The Mariners answered that question with a May 13 callup to Seattle. They simultaneously called up outfielder Jarred Kelenic from Triple-A Tacoma. Gilbert allowed four runs in went four innings, striking out five and walking none while allowing a pair of home runs to the Indians. Still, the Mariners want to be conservative with the 23-year-old’s workload, particularly following limited outings at the alternate training site last season. Gilbert threw a career-high 135 innings between the Class A levels and Double-A in 2019. Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said the 2018 first-rounder from Stetson was shut down after a scintillating spring training start, going two innings against the Angels on March 7 when he struck out four, 33
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—TJ COTTERILL
TAMPA BAY RAYS In a spring camp packed with highly rated infield prospects, headlined by Wander Franco and Vidal Brujan, it would seem hard to get noticed. But 25-year-old second baseman Tristan Gray found a way to make sure everyone noticed him. “He doesn’t need to worry about that,’’ Rays manager Kevin Cash said. “He’s got everybody in this camp knowing his name.’’ Gray did that and earned a roster spot at Triple-A Durham with an impressive showing. What stood out the most was how hard the 6-foot-3 Gray was hitting the ball, and how well he was moving on the infield, including at shortstop. Since being acquired from the Pirates in a 2018 deal for outfielder Corey Dickerson, he’s added about 30 pounds of muscle and now pushes 225 pounds. Gray, who last hit .225/.332/.409 with 17 home runs in 122 games at Double-A Montgomery in 2019, gives credit for his offensive surge to Montgomery hitting coach Jamie Nelson, who during the 2019 season provided guidance and a new drill routine that made a huge difference. “I went into his office in the middle of 34
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but is still strikeout prone and could iron that out in the minors and potentially in the majors later in 2021. —JEFF WILSON
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Versatile Rays infielder Tristan Gray stood out for his performance and enhanced physicality at minor league camp.
2019 and told him, ‘Hey, I just need an hour. Please just help me. Do whatever you want to do. I am at rock bottom right now,’ “ Gray said. Between that routine and becoming more selective at swinging at pitches he could damage, Gray felt he had a better approach. Working with big league hitting coach Chad Mottola got Gray to use his back side to get power in his swing. Being able to play shortstop in addition to the other infield spots, Gray said it was a matter of determination to get more reps at the position. “I grew up playing there all the time, ’’he said. “As I’ve come through (the minors) I’ve been working the corners more, but this camp I was able to get out there and put in the work. I definitely took it as a challenge and look forward to getting more opportunities.’’ —MARC TOPKIN
TEXAS RANGERS Catcher Sam Huff didn’t do much this year in his second big league spring training. A strained left hamstring suffered early in camp made sure of that. The thought, though, was that he would be fine for Opening Day at Triple-A Round Rock, where he was likely to begin the season even if he had made it through camp without issue.
Now, the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Huff seems to be permanently stuck at the team’s spring complex in Surprise, Ariz. The 23-year-old had surgery on his right knee in late April to clear a loose body from the joint. It was a simple procedure, but one that nevertheless will cost the 2016 seventh-rounder from Arcadia High in Phoenix the first eight weeks of the minor league season and potentially keep him from catching in 2021. Rangers general manager Chris Young said that Huff badly wants to get his season going, but otherwise is in good spirits considering his bad injury luck. And there’s something else, according to Young: Not all is lost this season. Huff can develop an understanding of how to cope with injuries, from the initial shock to the rehab assignment. “Sam is in a wonderful place mentally,” Young said. “He is obviously disappointed this happened. Nobody wants to have this. He’s champing at the bit to play. “But in terms of the maturity that he has shown, the way he has handled the tough news here, it’s just another part of his journey.” The same goes for top prospect Josh Jung, who was expected to be out until late May or early June after recovering from surgery in March to stabilize a stress fracture in his left foot. Even if Huff can’t catch, he could get plenty of at-bats as a DH. He hit .355 with three home runs in 10 games last season
Righthander Simeon Woods Richardson was preparing for his spring training debut on March 3 when the lineups were announced. As he listened to the names—including DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Brett Gardner and Gary Sanchez—it struck him that this time he wasn’t going to be seeing the Yankees stars on TV, but rather in the batter’s box against him. “Everything was speeding up,” the 20-year-old said. “First time on the mound, your adrenaline is going, taking over pretty much your whole body. Can’t feel your fingers. You’re just trying to throw a strike. But you’re so amped up. “Getting more comfortable, pitching more innings, that starts to dial down, and the way you pitch starts to come out and the way your game evolves comes out.” It certainly did that night for the 6-foot3, 210-pound Woods Richardson. He threw two clean innings, allowing a walk while striking out Stanton. And he pitched just as well during his other two spring appearances, throwing three shutout innings each time. He faced an array of Yankees regulars every time, even though he hadn’t pitched above High-A before spending last summer at the alternate training site. “I wouldn’t have it any other way,” Woods Richardson said. “I would love to face MVPs and home run champions just to let me know where I’m at. And I’ve got a good feeling where I’m at and getting pretty comfortable.” The Blue Jays hope that continues for Woods Richardson, who was acquired from the Mets in the 2019 deal for Marcus Stroman, at Double-A New Hampshire, his assignment to open the 2021 season. The Mets drafted him in the second round in 2018 out of high school in Sugar Land, Texas. While everyone is being careful not to overrate his spring sample, Woods Richardson has accelerated his timeline by showing well at the alternate site and spring training. With a curveball, slider and changeup to complement a fastball he commands well—and a work-quick ethos the defenders behind him love—Woods Richardson’s progress will be closely monitored to gauge his proximity. —SHI DAVIDI
MARY DECICCO/MLB PHOTOS VIA GETTY IMAGES; ROB LEITER/MLB PHOTOS VIA GETTY IMAGES
including Mike Trout. Gilbert experienced shoulder fatigue afterward. The same was true after his 2019 workload, Dipoto said. “We built an innings model for him this year where we would slowly ramp him up roughly starting in late April or early May,” Dipoto said, “with the hope that we would be able to preserve as many of his innings as possible for him to throw at the end of the season.” If Gilbert can get through a full season with most of his innings coming in the big leagues, the Mariners will view it as a developmental win. That will include incorporating him into a six-man rotation. There’s was certainly plenty of hype for when the 6-foot-6, 225-pound Gilbert got his callup. Kelenic said this spring that Gilbert was the pitcher who was the most challenging to face at the alternate site in Tacoma last summer. “We have young pitching in the minor leagues that we’d like,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “Understanding those guys didn’t pitch all last year, we have to be very careful on how we build those guys up, and when we possibly expose them to the major league level because the intensity does rise at the big league level.”
The Brewers are optimistic that power will continue to develop for shortstop Brice Turang, but they love the 2018 first-rounder’s feel to hit and defensive ability.
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O A recent D-backs draftee takes huge strides on the mound PAGE 36 O The Mets challenge a young slugging third baseman with a big jump to Double-A PAGE 38 O ˞˦ͳơĆÛŲͳŔŀþ GĩÛŋſŶ ŔƆſƷĆŀþĆŲ shows an incredibly well-rounded set of skills in his full-season debut PAGE 39
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Organization Reports
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
—NICK PIECORO
ATLANTA BRAVES The Braves will have plenty to learn during the 2021 minor league season. They’ll see top prospects such as Drew Waters and Kyle Muller back in regular games. They’ll see 2020 first-rounder Jared Shuster in action. They’ll see if Bryce Ball and Braden Shewmake take steps forward. Some other individuals generated more intrigue with their work at the alternate training site last season and this year. 36
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—PATRICK MOONEY
CINCINNATI REDS
The D-backs’ Ryne Nelson became a full-time pitcher as a college junior and has taken giant strides on the mound.
Braves farm director Ben Sestanovich mentioned two specific prospects who stood out. One, outfielder Michael Harris, was a popular name throughout the spring. The other, 20-year-old shortstop Vaughn Grissom, isn’t so often mentioned. “A lot (was) written about Michael Harris this spring,” Sestanovich said. “As a high school draftee in 2019 without a ton of professional experience, he came to the alternate site, and that was really a positive thing for his development. It was good for our staff to spend time with him. “Vaughn Grissom, another 2019 draft pick, spent a good chunk of the summer at the alternate site. He similarly stood out as far as his maturity and his ability to compete against some of those arms I mentioned who were pitching in the big leagues last season.” To say the Braves are bullish on Harris is an understatement. The outfielder has the potential to eventually become their No. 1 prospect because of his athleticism and well-rounded skill set. Grissom, who opened at Low-A Augusta, isn’t as flashy a name but has upside. He is an 11th-round pick from Hagerty High in Oviedo, Fla. The 6-foot-3, 180pound shortstop last played in the Rookielevel Gulf Coast League in 2019. He hit .288/.361/.400 with three homers, seven doubles and 23 RBIs in 44 games. Grissom’s defense is a question mark, but his advanced bat could push him up rankings. —GABE BURNS
CHICAGO CUBS Righthander Ryan Jensen set his mind to reaching the big leagues within three years of getting drafted by the Cubs 27th overall in 2019 out of Fresno State. That goal is still in sight, though not having a minor league season in 2020 slowed his trajectory, the way it did for most pitching prospects in the game. That journey will resume this season at High-A South Bend. Maybe it would be tempting for the Cubs to rush the 23-year-old Jensen if they were in a different spot as an organization and trying to maximize chances to win this year. With Jensen’s college pedigree and a 100 mph fastball, it’s not that hard to envision him blowing away hitters in short bursts. But the Cubs drafted the 6-foot, 190pound Jensen with the idea that he had the pitch mix and the athleticism to become a viable big league starter. That best-case internal projection has not changed. Letting him pitch is the best way to develop his talent. “It was definitely weird facing hitters again at this level of competition,” said Jensen, who went 12-1, 2.88 as a college junior and then pitched 12 innings at short-season Eugene after signing in 2019. The Cubs are also going to give Jensen a lot of runway as a starter because they are prioritizing the future and are eager to see the results after their restructuring of the scouting and player development departments in recent years. “He’s in a great spot,” said Matt Dorey,
Nick Lodolo was the first pitcher drafted in 2019. After a dominant junior season at Texas Christian, the lefty was viewed as a potential quick riser. After the draft he threw just 18.1 innings between Rookie-level Billings and Low-A Dayton, striking out 30 batters without a walk and posting a 2.45 ERA before he was shut down at the beginning of August in order to keep his total workload in check. He opened this season at Double-A Chattanooga. Without a minor league season in 2020, the Reds assigned Lodolo to their alternate training site. While there, he was able to work his changeup—a pitch he didn’t throw much while in college. “I feel like I needed to develop it,” Lodolo said. “But that’s something I hit hard on last year at (the alternate training site), and I feel like it’s gotten a lot better from where it has been, from when I was drafted. “(It’s) not there yet, obviously. I’ve got to keep going and I’m still working on it.” Lodolo has been working on more than his changeup. This spring, he also added a slider to his arsenal, which gives hitters a breaking ball with a different shape and speed from his curveball. “He’s looked great (this spring),” Reds director of pitching Kyle Boddy said. “He’s breaking in the changeup more. The velocity has been good and the command is always good.” His development didn’t go unnoticed by Reds manager David Bell, either. “He’s developing before our eyes,” Bell said. “We got to see him some last year. As talented as he is, and as close as he could be to the major leagues—which could happen at any point—there’s still a development process that he has to go through. “Mentally, just his comfort level, his understanding of his own abilities—it’s happening right before our eyes. He’s coming right along and improving just like we expected, if not quicker. “ —DOUG GRAY
BILL MITCHELL; MIKE JANES/FOUR SEAM IMAGES
In Ryne Nelson’s opinion, he would still be a very good defensive shortstop, if given the chance. As for his hitting? That’s a different story. “I was an all-around bad hitter,” Nelson said. So after his sophomore year at Oregon, he went from a position player who also occasionally pitched to a pitcher who focused solely on the mound. After exhibiting dominant stuff as a junior, Nelson was the D-backs’ second-round pick in 2019. The 23-year-old Nelson has made strides with his command and control since his junior year, when he walked 41 batters, while striking out 104, in 65 innings. He has impressed with how quickly he has been able to improve and repeat his delivery. “I’ve just been focused on being more efficient with my mechanics and how I attack hitters by trying to throw more strikes,” Nelson said. “That comes with smoothing out my mechanics . . . while also being able to repeat them.” That includes being more on-line to the plate, while also staying on his backside more to create more drive toward the plate. The D-backs believe athleticism has played a large part in his ability to make quick adjustments. They assigned him to High-A Hillsboro. “He seems to just have a much better feel for his delivery and his body and what he’s trying to do out there,” D-backs farm director Josh Barfield said. “He’s attacking. He’s got a pretty electric fastball—one of the best fastballs in our system.” At instructional league last year, Nelson’s fastball sat in 94-95 mph range and touched 96. Barfield said the pitch also has good carry through the zone. Nelson said his curveball and slider are “constantly trying to beat the other one” for his best secondary pitch while his changeup has improved. “Just the work ethic, the drive to improve and want to get better,” Barfield said. “He’s showing the ability and the potential to be a long-term major league starter.”
the Cubs’ vice president of player development, who also referenced Kohl Franklin, Richard Gallardo and DJ Herz as part of a group of talented young pitchers in the system. “I kind of use the analogy that it was like this super talented freshman class in 2020 coming into our minor league system, and they got it stripped away. “I’m just really pumped for all of them to have an opportunity, and hopefully 120 games to start paving and carving out their own path as prospects.”
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COLORADO ROCKIES At long last, 23-year-old righthander Karl Kauffmann launched his professional career at High-A Spokane. The Rockies drafted Kauffmann in the supplemental second round in 2019 out of Michigan. But because he threw 130.2 innings that year, including crucial frames in the College World Series, the Rockies opted not to pitch him that summer. Colorado sent the 6-foot-2, 200-pound Kauffmann to Low-A Asheville, where he could start to form some relationships— particularly with pitching coach Mark Brewer—throw a few bullpen sessions and rest and familiarize himself with the area where the Rockies envisioned Kauffmann would begin his career in 2020. But then the coronavirus pandemic intervened. With the 2020 minor league season canceled, Kauffmann was at the alternate training site in Denver last year, but when he developed shoulder tightness, the Rockies decided to send him home since getting him game-ready was irrelevant. Kauffmann showed good stuff, an advanced feel for pitching and ultra competitiveness in spring training. He does a good job of keeping the ball down and will pitch inside as well. He throws a 90-95 mph fastball that sits at 93 to both sides of the plate. He throws two sliders at 83-85 mph, a shorter-breaking one he’ll throw for strikes and one he buries as a swing-and-miss pitch that he commands well. His developing changeup should progress quickly, according to Rockies farm director Zach Wilson, because of Kauffmann’s exceptional aptitude, moxie and competitive zeal. Currently, Wilson said Kauffmann “can basically throw strikes at will.” Kauffmann’s command of his slider is very good, and ultimately, Wilson said, his overall command will be above-average once he improves his glove-side command. “But he’s got a simple delivery, it’s extremely repeatable,” Wilson said. “And he’s got a good arm action. And when you put those three things together, he’s going to be able to get the command to where it needs to be through experience and innings.” —JACK ETKIN
LOS ANGELES DODGERS Outfielder DJ Peters knows what he can do. And he knows what he needs to do. “Put the ball in play hard and good things will happen,” Peters said in big league camp. “I hit the ball hard. I hit it far. I just want to be a little more consistent.” The numbers back up the 25-year-old
pop in his arm while pitching for Team USA. He had a partial ligament tear and opted for Tommy John surgery. “If you love baseball the way I love baseball,” Fulton said, “you don’t want to have to worry about (this injury) five years from now.” Fulton had surgery on Sept. 11, 2019, and he missed Team USA’s trips to Taiwan and South Korea. He missed his senior season, too. But the Marlins were undeterred, selecting him 40th overall. The Marlins signed Fulton for $2.4 million, a record bonus for a pitcher who missed his senior season due to injury. Fulton, the top prep lefty in the 2020 draft, turned down a scholarship offer to Oklahoma, where coach Skip Johnson has continued to serve as one of his biggest mentors. Together with Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett, Fulton is one of three high-end lefties in the Marlins’ organization. “Every time out,” Fulton said, “I feel more comfortable.” —WALTER VILLA
Marlins lefthander Dax Fulton opened with Low-A Jupiter after missing his draft year in 2020 to Tommy John surgery.
Peters, who received his first big league callup on April 23. He quickly went back down. The Dodgers’ 2016 fourth-rounder out of Western Nevada JC totaled 52 home runs in 2018 and 2019 with Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City. But he has also struck out 33% of the time in that span. The challenge for the 6-foot-6, 225-pound Peters is to make contact more often. “Definitely gotta be consistent out there. That’s no secret,” Peters said. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Peters has shown the ability to play all three outfield positions in the major leagues. And he began working at first base during spring training. “I think on the defensive side, he is there,” Roberts said. Roberts also said the quality of Peters’ at-bats during Cactus League games was better. But maintaining that on a consistent basis is the challenge, one that Peters will have to meet by continuing to refine his swing and focusing on the fundamentals of plate discipline. “He’s got some long levers and there’s a lot of swing-and-miss. But he’s really cleaned it up. He really has,” Roberts said. “I think his stance is a little different than it has been in the past.” Peters was part of the Dodgers’ traveling taxi squad during the postseason run to a World Series title. “I learned a lot, just from watching the game and being in the clubhouse for those
six weeks,” Peters said, “watching how playoff baseball is played not only on the field but in the locker room after the game and at the hotel.” —BILL PLUNKETT
MIAMI MARLINS Chad Fulton used to love playing ball with his son Dax Fulton. But then something changed. “By the time Dax was in the eighth grade, it wasn’t fun to play catch with him anymore,” Chad said. “His pitches were moving too much.” It’s now the job of professional catchers to handle the four-pitch mix of Fulton, a 2020 second-rounder from Mustang (Okla.) High who opened at Low-A Jupiter. Fulton is a 19-year-old lefthander who uses a power curveball as his out pitch. He also has a low-90s four-seam fastball, a twoseam sinker and a changeup. He fills all four quadrants of the strike zone. The 6-foot-7, 225-pound Fulton was raised 15 minutes away from Oklahoma City. He grew up loving sports. At age 5, Fulton started playing travel ball with the Oklahoma Elite, which produced 10 Division I signees from his class alone. As a freshman, Fulton led Mustang High to a state championship, getting the win in the state final. However, in August of 2019—just before the start of his senior year—Fulton heard a
MILWAUKEE BREWERS Shortstop Brice Turang had not yet played a game above Class A, but that didn’t stop Brewers big league manager Craig Counsell from giving the 21-year-old regular Cactus League at-bats. “One of Brice’s strengths is he plays with an aura of confidence,” Counsell said. “It’s swag, is what it is. “Sometimes, that can be seen as cocky for our generation of older people, but it’s not cocky. He just carries himself with the right amount of confidence.” The Brewers drafted Turang 21st overall out of Santiago (Calif.) High in 2018. Turang went 6-for-33 (.182) at the plate this spring but excelled in the field as a late-inning replacement at shortstop and second base. The coronavirus pandemic robbed Turang of an official 2020 season, but the Brewers made sure he remained on a player development track at the alternate training site in Appleton, Wis. Turang separated himself from others and even showed budding power not previously displayed. “It was awesome, learning from all those guys, being able to find new routines, making adjustments, all that,” Turang said. “I just treated it like baseball and played and competed every day. “I’m always competitive in anything I do. Those pitchers were all so good. It was tough every day; there were no easy games. Baseball is baseball. You’ve got to step on the field ready to play, no matter how young or old you are.” 37
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—TOM HAUDRICOURT
NEW YORK METS An organization hungry for prospects who are close to major league-ready will be closely monitoring Mark Vientos’ progress this season. The 21-year-old third baseman began the 2021 season at Double-A Binghamton. He spent 2019 at Low-A Columbia, where he hit .255/.300/.411 with 12 home runs and 62 RBIs as one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League. Vientos, who is 6-foot-4 and weighs 185 pounds, was a 2017 second-rounder from American Heritage High in Plantation, Fla. “He has the makeup of an everyday third baseman with his power and his size,” Mets scout Tony DeFrancesco said. “He’s going to be challenged this year going to Double-A. That is going to be a nice challenge for the kid after not playing most of last year.” The Mets have other infield prospects rated ahead of Vientos, most notably shortstop Ronny Mauricio and third baseman Brett Baty. But Vientos is the veteran of the group, albeit with just 222 games of pro experience headed into 2021. Though Vientos signed as a shortstop and played there in Rookie ball, his future will come as a third baseman who can perhaps enhance his value by learning first base. “He’s got power to all fields, a nice short stroke,” DeFrancesco said. “Now it’s (let’s) see if he can move laterally defensively and have some of the reactions, but from what I have seen in spring training, it looks like he can handle himself at the next level and hopefully he will be on his way.” DeFrancesco added that Vientos’ arm strength isn’t a question. But organization officials want to see him master the nuances of fielding the position. “He’s going from Low-A, missing out on most of his development last year, but he’s in the same boat as every other guy,” DeFrancesco said. “This is what we need—some young life in our upper levels. I hope that is the case 38
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The Mets challenged 21-year-old third baseman Mark Vientos by pushing him to Double-A Binghamton to open the year.
with some of these guys. (Let’s) see if we can develop them at a younger age and get them to the big leagues faster.” —MIKE PUMA
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES The Phillies showed their faith in Casey Martin when they went well above the $685,500 slot and signed him for $1.3 million from Arkansas in the third round of last year’s draft. Now, after a stellar minor league camp, the 22-year-old shortstop opened the season at Low-A Clearwater. “Very impressive,” Phillies farm director Josh Bonifay said. “Tremendous bat speed. If you leave a fastball over the dish, he’ll pop you. The bat is going to be there with more power as he matures.” One rival scout said the ball jumps off the 5-foot-11, 175-pound Martin’s bat. He noted Martin will need to make consistent contact to use his top-of-the-chart speed and baserunning skills. “He’s electric when he gets on base,” Bonifay said. “He can turn a single into a triple. He looks to take the extra base. He can steal bases. He has tremendous instincts and explosiveness on the bases. “We really liked his defense. He takes a ton of pride working on it and it’s really improved.” Martin can play third base and second base and has the athleticism to play the out-
field down the road. Luis Garcia, a 20-yearold shortstop signed from the Dominican Republic in 2017, is also on the Clearwater roster, so there will be opportunities for Martin to build versatility—something the Phillies value. Martin projected as a first-rounder after hitting .345 with 13 homers, 49 RBIs and a .974 OPS as a freshman at Arkansas. His batting average fell and his strikeouts increased the next two seasons. The drop in production and an injury to his left hand that required surgery in the fall of 2019 gave some teams pause in the draft. “We got a lot of looks at him his freshman year when he lit it up and we believe in the hit tool,” Phillies scouting director Brian Barber said. “We’re super excited to have him. “He’s an exciting, quick-twitch athlete who is full of tools. Any time we can get middle-of-the-field players who competed at a high level like the (Southeastern Conference) with speed and power, we’re going to be in it.” —JIM SALISBURY
PITTSBURGH PIRATES Oneil Cruz and Mason Martin are the most obvious power hitters to watch in the Pirates’ farm system. But don’t overlook 22-year-old corner outfielder Cal Mitchell, the 2017 second-rounder who broke camp with
Double-A Altoona. Mitchell was known for his raw power when he signed for $1.3 million out of San Diego’s Rancho Bernardo High. That power may still be more on the raw side, but the Pirates were definitely noticing the lefthanded hitter’s power on their side. “When you put him in the weight room and you see who can generate the most force, he is definitely at the top of the charts when it comes to that,” Pirates farm director John Baker said. Baker said that Mitchell generates a lot of strength from his lower half, while having the coordination and the mental skills to apply his raw power in games. “When you combine (force) with his feel at the plate, and his low heartbeat in the batter’s box, I think you can see why (power) would pop up with him,” Baker said. “He’s got both a really good eye, and he’s a really good athlete, with a slow heartbeat. It makes for all of the components of a really good hitter.” Mitchell’s power showed up in the very early part of the minor league season. Through seven games he had hit a double and a home run to go with six walks and seven strikeouts. The improved approach was a welcome addition after he struck out 142 times at High-A Bradenton in 2019. What Mitchell had done early in the season was a microcosm of what he could be capable of in the future. His upside is as a bat-first, power-hitting corner outfielder who might also be able to hit for average and get on base. —TIM WILLIAMS
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS It had been more than a year since some of his teammates last saw the lean shortstop prospect who didn’t have the strength to hoist himself to the next level. And if they didn’t catch the social media peeks into his workout, spring was the first time they realized how big a change 22-year-old Delvin Perez made. “No more skinny guy,” one said to him. Perez flexed with a grin. “I’m a new player,” he said. Perez, the 2016 first-round pick out of high school in Puerto Rico, reported to his first big league camp with shoulders that could fill out his jersey and a thicker-barreled bat to match his forearms. Having matured into his frame and added nearly 20 pounds, Perez’s 14 months of work resulted in an impressive spring. He learned that the added size did not lessen his speed or stiffen his play at shortstop. One major league coach said: He’s “opening a lot of eyes.”
TOM DIPACE; BILL MITCHELL
That experience, in combination with another solid showing in big league camp, helped Turang open with Double-A Biloxi this season. He has seen some action at second base in past seasons, but the Brewers believe he can play shortstop in the big leagues. “There’s always been some debate over what type of power Brice will ultimately have,” Brewers farm director Tom Flanagan said. “Brice just hits, and I think he’s a good hitter first. The power, to whatever degree, will continue to come.”
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Cardinals responded by challenging him with an aggressive assignment to Double-A Springfield—two levels higher than he had played. Perez had spent most of his career as a 6-foot-3, 175-pound shortstop with slick defensive skills and questions at the plate. He struggled so much to keep weight on that at one point he dropped to 161 pounds. When the pandemic canceled the 2020 minor league season, Perez moved to Orlando and established a training regimen. When not working out, he watched video of how Mike Trout, Carlos Correa and Albert Pujols maintain their swings. He kept the Cardinals updated on his progress and drew motivation from where he wasn’t: at the alternate training site or any prospect rankings. “I want to prove them wrong,” he said. At the time the Cardinals drafted him, the organization pledged patience to him. Theirs was tested. But this spring they saw return. “If we had drafted him last year (at 21), would the player we see show up in spring training be someone we’re excited about,” assistant general manager Randy Flores said. “I think the answer is yes.” —DERRICK GOOLD
SAN DIEGO PADRES Josh Mears landed on radars this spring with a Cactus League home run off Rockies big league reliever Carlos Estevez. The ball left Mears’ bat at 117.3 mph. Only Pete Alonso hit a ball harder in 2020—118.4 mph. Padres farm director Sam Geaney believes the 20-year-old Mears might have topped his viral Cactus League blast later in minor league camp. It’s not hard to believe because Mears checks in at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds. But the Padres believe their burly outfielder is a lot more than a one-trick pony. “He’s really big, really strong, but he’s in really good shape,” Geaney said. “He’s a good mover. It’s not just brute-force strength. When he runs, when he gets going, it’s beautiful.” His speed was intriguing enough to try the natural right fielder in center late in minor league camp. Really, the Padres haven’t seen much of Mears in game action since signing him for $1 million as a 2019 second-rounder out of high school in Federal Way, Wash. The righthanded slugger mashed seven home runs in 43 games in the Rookie-level Arizona League after the draft but lost all of 2020 to the pandemic. He stayed in game shape on his own at
overhaul somebody. “Just let him be him until he needs us.” Because Matos has played just 60 professional games heading into 2021, the book is far from written. The Giants assigned Matos, along with fellow top prospects Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison, to Low-A San Jose. “We’re not sure what we’ve got,” Haines said, “but everything he’s showed us so far has been very encouraging. (We’re) excited to see him grow this year.” —STEVE KRONER
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Giants outfielder Luis Matos opened 2021 on a loaded Low-A San Jose roster that also included Marco Luciano.
home but didn’t get onto the field until late at instructional league because of a broken hamate bone. Judging by the Cactus League homer, the injury didn’t rob Mears of any of his strength. He went 1-for-12 with 10 strikeouts as an ambitious addition to big league camp, but the Padres don’t see him as a swing-from-the-heels hitter in the future. Mears struck out 59 times in 43 games in 2019, but he also walked 23 times and hit .313/.405/.531 over the final month of the season. The goal now is to see if Mears can unlock his potential while jumping to Low-A Lake Elsinore. “This is not an undisciplined, chasing hitter,” Geaney said. “He swings at the right stuff. “It’s continuing to be cognizant of how his body and how his swing work together to hopefully allow for the appropriate amount of contact as he climbs the ladder.” —JEFF SANDERS
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Not great at any one thing but very good at just about everything. That’s the condensed assessment of 19-year-old outfielder Luis Matos—and the Giants will eagerly accept it. “I think he’s more in that 50-60 tool range,” Giants farm director Kyle Haines said, referring to the 20-80 scouting scale.
“He’s not really under a 50 (average) in anything. He doesn’t really have that 70 tool by any means yet. “We’ll see how it develops as he plays more, but (he’s) just really well-rounded.” The Giants signed the righthanded-hitting Venezuelan in 2018. As a 17-year-old, Matos tore up the Dominican Summer League in 2019, hitting .362/.430/.570. He then went 7-for-16 in five Rookie-level Arizona League games. “He has a chance to hit for both average and for some doubles and extra-base hits in general,” Haines said. “He shows all the ingredients to be a very multi-dimensional threat at the plate.” Matos’ above-average speed helps him both in the outfield and on the bases. “I don’t think you’re going to see the topof-the-line speed of the Billy Hamiltons of the world,” Haines said, “but you’re going to see a nice runner who’s really just a headsup ballplayer on the field. “He runs good routes. He throws to the right bases. He seems to make the steady, reliable play all the time.” Listed at 6 feet, 186 pounds, Matos played at instructional league last fall and was at minor league spring training this year. The Giants have taken something of a hands-off approach to Matos in the batter’s box. “What he’s shown right now on the offensive side is we just need to get him game experience that he’s lacked,” Haines said. “There aren’t really any drastic, ‘eureka’ moments where we just need to completely
At minor league camp in West Palm Beach, Fla., catcher Israel Pineda showed just how far he’s come since 2019—even without a 2020 minor league season. “Israel Pineda has had a great camp here ever since big league camp,” Nationals farm director Mark Scialabba said. “He’s building a foundation in all phases—really learning how to work with pitchers and their strengths, calling a game and being a leader on the field.” Pineda, a 21-year-old from Venezuela who signed for $450,000 in 2016, was a non-roster invitee to major league spring training. He left his biggest impression when he hit a 465-foot home run on one of the back fields in an intrasquad game. The blast had an exit velocity of 114 mph. “He has impressive pull-side power,” Scialabba said. “He’s also making contact and barreling up the baseball. He’s continuing to try to build consistency from at-bat to at-bat.” After Pineda hit .217/.278/.305 with seven home runs in 101 games at Low-A Hagerstown in 2019, he was challenged last summer by higher-level pitchers at the Nationals’ alternate training site. The 5-foot-11, 190-pound Pineda then went to instructional league in the fall. He went 3-for-5 with a home run in four games in big league camp this spring. Pineda opened the year with High-A Wilmington. Though Pineda has a strong arm and has thrown out more than 40% of basestealers, he had a bat-first reputation after hitting .273/.341/.388 in 46 games at short-season Auburn in 2018. At the plate, Pineda had trouble with breaking balls, but Scialabba says he’s developing into a catcher whose offense and defense are both positives. “I think they’re both moving in the right direction,” Scialabba said. “With him, he’s really grown. He’s maturing as a person and a baseball player. He’s in a good place right now.” —LACY LUSK
39
MAJORS i
The number of stolen bases continues to decline, even as success rates climb PAGE 41
Drafted eighth overall out of high school last year, Robert Hassell shined as one of the youngest players in big league camp this spring. The 19-yearold outfielder got off to a fast start at Low-A Lake Elsinore and could be in line for a quick promotion.
MINORS i
What Opening Day roster assignments tell us about recent draftees PAGE 42
COLLEGE i
Big righthander Ty Madden has Texas in contention for Omaha PAGE 44
HIGH SCHOOL i
Bubba Chandler excels on the mound and in every other athletic endeavor PAGE 45
DRAFT i
The top 10 draft prospects you need to know who popped up this spring
ROB LEITER/MLB PHOTOS VIA GETTY IMAGES; ED ZURGA/GETTY IMAGES
PAGE 46
40
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
positions for a long time, so I think pitchers used to have a little more athleticism and were better at holding runners on or throwing to bases . . . That’s not a skill that they’re as good at as they used to be.” From a team perspective, no club has been as active on the bases as the Padres in recent years. San Diego led the majors in steals in 2020 and again led this season through May 18, notably stealing at a rate of 78.1%. Manager Jayce Tingler also sees a change in pitcher behavior as the catalyst for the increased success rates, while noting a change in defensive strategy plays a role as well. “I still think the majority of stolen bases come off the pitcher,” Tingler said. “And so understanding that, there’s a lot of guys in the league who you know they’ve got really good stuff and they may go with an extra high leg kick to get more power, because they’re trying to get swing and miss. We can look for slower times. And then with shifts it can be a little bit harder to cover second base, certainly in first and third scenarios.” The biggest measurable change, though, has been in catchers. As the main focus of catcher defense has shifted to pitch-framing, arm strength has Royals second baseman Whit Merrifield is on pace to set a career high in stolen bases this season.
become a secondary consideration for many backstops. In 2015, the first year MLB Statcast data is available, there were 147 instances of a catcher recording a sub-1.9 second pop time on a throw to second base. Through the first six weeks of the 2021 season, there were six.
MAJORS
PERMISSION TO FLY The number of stolen bases continues to decline, but success rates are the highest they’ve ever been by KYLE
J
GLASER
catcher arm strength being deemphasized in favor of pitch-framing skills. The most important of those is the pitcher.
The total sum is an environment where the opportunities for stolen bases, and aggressive baserunning in general, are ripe. And yet,
Whether one views stealing bases as a math
most teams have been slow to take advantage
equation, an art form or a combination of the
of them.
two, how quick the pitcher is to the plate is the starting point for it all. “If you’re decently fast, and we’re talking just an average major league catcher, if a (pitcher)
Even with success rates at an all-time high, the takeoff rate—the number of stolen base attempts per estimated times on first base—is near historical lows this season.
ust a decade ago, stolen bases were still a somewhat
is 1.3 seconds to the plate, that’s about right
“As a whole, stolen bases, guys are less inter-
prominent part of the modern game.
around the time you can start stealing,” said
ested in them,” Merrifield said. “All the analyt-
Royals second baseman Whit Merrifield, who
ics say it’s a bad thing if you get thrown out and
led the American League in stolen bases in 2017
it’s hard on guys’ bodies and they don’t want to
and 2018 and was leading again this season. “If
put themselves through that.”
Today the landscape has changed. With the rise and spread of analytics, the number of stolen base attempts has
declined precipitously. The rate of steal attempts in April this year was the lowest for any
he’s slower than that, then you’re going. If he’s
April of the expansion era, which began in 1961. Analytically inclined
quicker than that, you gotta find a different key
the strategy and attitudes surrounding stolen
front offices, citing run expectancy matrices and other data, have largely
to go off of.”
bases. From 1900 to 1925, which encompasses
concluded the risk of getting thrown out isn’t worth the potential benefit in most cases. The calculation appears to be changing. Ironically, many of the analytical trends driving today’s game have made stealing bases a more successful proposition than ever. Runners were successful on 76.7% of stolen base attempts through May 18, which was on pace to become an all-time high. There are many factors behind the uptick in success rates, but three are most commonly cited are: pitchers are no longer as adept at holding runners, shifted defenses have a harder time getting to the bag in time and
In Merrifield’s view, the rise in stolen base
There is precedent for large-scale reversal in
the Deadball Era, players ran frequently—with
success rates can be largely attributed to a
estimated takeoff rates upward of 10 to 15%.
decline in pitchers’ ability to hold runners.
From 1930 to 1964, the rate of players attempt-
“I think half of it comes from a lot of pitchers
ing stolen bases plummeted to levels even lower
not wanting to throw to bases,” he said. “Most
than today. From 1975 to 2000, rates spiked and
pitchers now are pitchers from the time they’re
again frequently topped 10%.
11 or 12 years old, and that takes away from a
In today’s world of analytically driven
little bit of athleticism that you would gain from
front offices, it all comes down to the calcula-
being a position player for a long time.
tion changing.
“It used to be where guys played all different
Slowly but surely, it appears that it has. Q 41
Departments
MINORS
ANSWERING THE BELL What Opening Day roster assignments tell us about recent draftees by
O
J.J. COOPER
rganizations have different approaches, so one cannot make sweeping assumptions based on Opening Day minor league roster assignments for recent first-round picks. For example, the Phillies sent Alec Bohm, drafted third overall out of Wichita State in 2018, to Low-A to open 2019. That was an extra conservative assignment for a high first-
round pick from a four-year college. Bohm aced that stop, quickly jumped to High-A and was playing in Double-A by midseason. He reached Philadelphia in 2020. But it is useful to see where recent draftees were assigned on Opening Day. There were three 2020 college first-round picks who received aggressive assignments to Double-A this season. They were Marlins righthander Max Meyer, Blue Jays shortstop Austin Martin and Angels lefthander Reid Detmers. The vast majority of college first-rounders were sent to High-A to make their pro debuts. But four players—Twins first baseman Aaron Sabato, Yankees catcher Austin Wells, Orioles shortstop Jordan Westburg and Rays shortstop Alika Williams—began their minor league careers in Low-A. White Sox lefthander Garrett Crochet made his major league debut last year. Four other 2020 first-rounders did not make an Opening Day roster. Orioles outfielder Heston Kjerstad opened on the injured list as he recovered from myocarditis. Indians shortstop Carson Tucker, drafted out of high school, was held back in extended spring training. Rays righthander Nick Bitsko was recovering from shoulder surgery. D-backs righthander Slade Cecconi was recovering from a minor wrist injury on his non-throwing hand. Looking beyond the first round, the most notable assignment is the Marlins’ decision to
(Players sorted by overall pick number)
to Double-A. Considering that just three col-
Assigned to Double-A 3. Max Meyer, RHP, Marlins 5. Austin Martin, SS, Blue Jays 10. Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels Assigned to High-A 1. Spencer Torkelson, 3B, Tigers 4. Asa Lacy, LHP, Royals 6. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Mariners 7. Nick Gonzales, 2B, Pirates 13. Patrick Bailey, C, Giants 14. Justin Foscue, 2B, Rangers 18. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, D-backs 20. Garrett Mitchell, OF, Brewers 22. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Nationals 25. Jared Shuster, LHP, Braves 29. Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers 31. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, Pirates 32. Nick Loftin, SS, Royals 36. Tanner Burns, RHP, Indians Assigned to Low-A 27. Aaron Sabato, 1B, Twins 28. Austin Wells, C, Yankees 30. Jordan Westburg, 3B, Orioles 37. Alika Williams, SS, Rays 42
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
send former Vanderbilt lefthander Jake Eder What did 2019 draftees lose by not having a
lege first-rounders were sent to Double-A,
2020 minor league season? If you look at the
and no second- or third-rounders were, a
Opening Day assignments, the answer is a lot.
fourth-rounder like Eder jumping straight to Double-A is a sign of confidence. On the high school side, the approach is much
Eleven of the 24 college players selected in the first and supplemental first round in 2019 were sent to High-A to start the 2021 season.
more universal—every high school first- and
That means that nearly half of 2019 college top
supplemental first-rounder on an Opening Day
picks were sent to the same level as 14 of the 22
roster was sent to Low-A.
college first- and supplemental first-rounders
OPENING DAY ROSTER ASSIGNMENTS FOR 2020 HIGH SCHOOL FIRST- AND SUPPLEMENTAL FIRST-ROUND PICKS (Players sorted by overall pick number) Assigned to Low-A 8. Robert Hassell, OF, Padres 9. Zac Veen, OF, Rockies 12. Austin Hendrick, OF, Reds 15. Mick Abel, RHP, Phillies 16. Ed Howard, SS, Cubs 17. Nick Yorke, 2B, Red Sox 19. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Mets 21. Jordan Walker, 3B, Cardinals 26. Tyler Soderstrom, C, Athletics 35. Drew Romo, C, Rockies
The Blue Jays were so impressed with righthander Alek Manoah this spring that they assigned him to Triple-A Buffalo, jumping him over three levels of the minor leagues. Toronto drafted him 11th overall out of West Virginia in 2019.
from 2020. Other players received more aggressive assignments. The Blue Jays sent 2019 firstround righthander Alek Manoah straight to Triple-A after he last appeared in the short-season Northwest League in 2019. Manoah had a strong spring training in which he struck out 15 and walked none over seven innings. The Cardinals also bumped 2019 firstround lefthander Zack Thompson to Triple-A. Every college player drafted in the top 10 in 2019 was sent to Double-A. On the other hand, the Rays conservatively sent righthander Seth Johnson to Low-A. He was a recent convert from shortstop to pitching.
CLIFF WELCH/ICON SPORTSWIRE VIA GETTY IMAGES; MIKE JANES/FOUR SEAM IMAGES
OPENING DAY ROSTER ASSIGNMENTS FOR 2020 COLLEGE FIRST AND SUPPLEMENTAL FIRST-ROUND PICKS
OPENING DAY ROSTER ASSIGNMENTS FOR 2019 COLLEGE FIRST- AND SUPPLEMENTAL FIRST-ROUND PICKS
The new six-game series format in the minor leagues could benefit pitchers just getting acclimated to pro ball, such as Phillies top 2020 pick Mick Abel at Low-A Clearwater, because they are used to pitching once per week.
(Players sorted by overall pick number) Assigned to Triple-A 11. Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays 19. Zack Thompson, LHP, Cardinals Assigned to Double-A 1. Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles 4. JJ Bleday, OF, Marlins 7. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Reds 9. Shea Langeliers, C, Braves 21. Braden Shewmake, SS, Braves 25. Kody Hoese, 3B, Dodgers 28. Ethan Small, LHP, Brewers 29. Logan Davidson, 3B/2B, Athletics 31. Michael Busch, 2B, Dodgers 41. Davis Wendzel, 3B, Rangers Assigned to High-A 10. Hunter Bishop, OF, Giants 14. Bryson Stott, SS, Phillies 15. Will Wilson, SS, Giants 20. George Kirby, RHP, Mariners 22. Greg Jones, SS, Rays 23. Michael Toglia, 1B, Rockies 27. Ryan Jensen, RHP, Cubs 32. Korey Lee, C, Astros 34. Drey Jameson, RHP, D-backs 35. Kameron Misner, OF, Marlins 39. Matt Wallner, OF, Twins Assigned to Low-A 40. Seth Johnson, RHP, Rays If you need any further proof that the top of the 2019 draft class could be special, the three top high school picks, shortstops Bobby Witt Jr. and CJ Abrams and outfielder Riley Greene, were sent to Double-A. That means that Witt, Greene and Abrams received a more aggressive assignment than many 2019 college first-rounders, including position players Hunter Bishop, Bryson Stott and Will Wilson, all top-20 picks.
OPENING DAY ROSTER ASSIGNMENTS FOR 2019 HIGH SCHOOL FIRST- AND SUPPLEMENTAL FIRST-ROUND PICKS (Players sorted by overall pick number) Assigned to Double-A 2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals 5. Riley Greene, OF, Tigers 6. CJ Abrams, SS, Padres Assigned to High-A 12. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets 16. Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs 18. Quinn Priester, RHP, Pirates Assigned to Low-A 13. Keoni Cavaco, SS, Twins 24. Daniel Espino, RHP, Indians 26. Blake Walston, LHP, D-backs 30. Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees 33. Brennan Malone, RHP, Pirates 37. Sammy Siani, OF, Pirates
get in a normal 140-game schedule. But just four starts apiece would be on “normal” four days of rest between starts. In essence, this is actually putting every pitcher on a five-day rest cycle, but with four starts on short rest. This may prove helpful for teams looking to improve their pitching development, but it will not ensure starters are ready to step into a major league rotation on short notice.
How the new 2021 schedule will shake up minor league rotations Ever since the four-man rotation faded into memory in the early 1980s, professional baseball has revolved around the five-man rotation. Starting pitchers get the ball every sixth day. With few off days during the season, teams can either use the sporadic day off to give everyone an extra day of rest or skip one starter while keeping everyone else on their regular schedule. In this way, pro baseball in the United States is in a somewhat rare situation. In college baseball, rotations revolve around a seven-day schedule. Starters generally start once a week. That’s generally the case in high school as well. And it’s often the case overseas—in Japan, teams rarely play on Monday, so most starters work on a once-aweek schedule. This year the minor leagues will be looking at a schedule that is not compatible for using a five-man rotation on regular rest. A few years ago, many minor league teams had one off day a month, which meant it was easy to keep starting pitchers on a schedule where they pitched every fifth day. This year, every minor league team will play six-game series with one off-day per week. This standard off-day is Monday for all but Triple-A West, which has Wednesdays off. That means it will be nearly impossible to keep a rotation on a schedule where each pitcher throws every five days. So what will teams do? Let’s take a look at three scenarios. 1. FIVE-MAN ROTATION, ALL FIVE ON SCHEDULE With this year’s shortened 120-game schedule, all five starters in a traditional rotation arrangement would get 24 starts—which isn’t far off the number of starts pitchers
2. FIVE-MAN ROTATION, KEEP TOP FOUR STARTERS ON SCHEDULE If trying to keep every starter on normal rest won’t work, what about a system where the top four starting pitchers are kept on schedule, while the No. 5 starter is skipped occasionally? Under this system, we get closer to a “normal” schedule. The top four starters all get 25 starts, while the No. 5 starter gets 20 starts. But teams would still not be getting pitchers many starts on four days of rest. The No. 1 starter gets four days of rest between starts 16 times. The No. 2 starter gets 11 starts on normal rest. The No. 3 starter gets five starts on normal rest and the No. 4 starter gets four. This hybrid approach is something teams may look at for Double-A and Triple-A, where pitchers need to be ready at a moment’s notice to step into a big league rotation. If teams want to keep the majority of their minor league rotations on a regular schedule in a season where teams have an off-day every week, they will have to likely adapt to a new paradigm. Teams could adopt a sixman rotation instead, with every pitcher making one start a week. Under that format, all six starters would make 20 starts in a 120-game season and they would make all their starts on “normal” rest. But in this case the normal rest would be six days of rest between starts. 3. SIX-MAN ROTATION, ALL SIX ON SCHEDULE This likely isn’t something many teams are going to want to adopt at Triple-A, where pitchers are one call away from joining a big league rotation. But at the Class A levels, it would mean that college and high school pitchers who are used to a seven-day schedule will remain on that schedule early in their professional careers. Six starters means that an extra pitcher gets to stretch out as a regular member of the rotation instead of being moved to the bullpen. It also provides potential development benefits. There are hybrid options where teams could try to blend parts of the various approaches. But it is safe to say the 2021 schedule format will lead to changes in how pitchers are developed. —J.J. Cooper
43
Departments
Texas righthander Ty Madden is on track to be an AllAmerican and firstround pick, the first for the Longhorns since 2011.
COLLEGE
WALKING TALL Ty Madden is the latest big righthander from Texas and has the Longhorns in contention for Omaha by
T
TEDDY CAHILL
he big Texas righthander is a draft archetype that goes back decades. Nolan Ryan. Roger Clemens. Kerry Wood. Josh Beckett. Jameson Taillon. The list goes on. All of them seemingly cut from the same cloth as strong, pow-
erful pitchers from the Lone Star State with big fastballs and seemingly boundless upside. Ty Madden is familiar with his home state’s tradition for producing big, powerful righthanders, pitchers who, well, look like him. Listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Madden has touched 100 mph with his fastball and this spring was averaging nearly 95. The native of Cypress, Texas, a suburb of Houston, headlines the Texas rotation and has helped the Longhorns Madden, a third-year sophomore, fits the profile of a big Texas righthander to a burnt orange T. Madden has been excellent for the Longhorns in 2021. Through the first
When the 2020 season stopped, Madden
of a power breaking ball. Madden also throws a
had all the time he needed to focus on working
changeup, but he hasn’t needed to use it much
out. But when he returned home in the first
in college. Improving it will be the next stage of
few weeks of the shutdown, all the gyms were
his development in professional baseball.
12 weeks of the season, going into Texas’ mid-May finals break, he was
closed. So, he improvised. His father Brian owns
6-2, with a 2.27 ERA, 89 strikeouts and 28 walks in 75.1 innings. He’s been
a metal fabrication shop and built a weight rack
Madden already has more than most hitters can
remarkably consistent all season long, delivering quality starts in nine of
and weights for their garage out of scrap metal.
handle. Texas catcher Silas Ardoin has caught
his 12 appearances.
Madden worked out there until gyms began to
all of Madden’s starts since he arrived in Austin
reopen. As that happened, he moved his work-
two years ago. It’s a better vantage point than
round draft pick. Since righthander Taylor Jungmann accomplished both
outs to a gym owned by former big leaguer
the batter’s box.
feats in 2011, the Longhorns have not produced a player drafted in the first
Kip Wells.
As a result, Madden is on track to be both an All-American and a first-
round and had only one All-American, Kody Clemens in 2018. While it’s been a decade since the Longhorns have had a pitcher like
In addition to filling out his frame, Madden
With that fastball-slider combination,
“The most difficult thing for hitters is he’s a bigger dude and he’s coming down the mound
tweaked his mechanics to incorporate his lower
with everything that he has, and everyone
Madden, Texas coach David Pierce has been around several throughout his
half more and worked to improve his athleti-
knows his velo is up there with a lot of spin,”
career. Pierce, now in his fifth season in Austin, previously was a longtime
cism, to better repeat his delivery. The result
Ardoin said. “It makes it hard to see the ball and
assistant coach under Wayne Graham at Rice, working with the Owls all-
of his hard work became apparent during fall
adjust. It’s not a comfortable at-bat at all.”
time great rotation of Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend.
ball, when Madden started lighting up radar
Pierce said Madden’s presence at the front of the rotation reminds him of what Rice had at its peak. “He’s a throwback kid,” Pierce said. “He doesn’t allow distractions to
guns consistently. Not only is Madden throwing harder, but he
The Texas coaching and support staff have played a key role in Madden’s development, including Pierce and pitching coach Sean Allen.
holds his velocity and this season has been up to
Street and volunteer assistant coach Troy
leak in, he’s so focused on his teammates. He leads by example. He’s one
98 mph in the ninth inning. That kind of veloc-
Tulowitzki have helped him develop the mental
of the most dedicated pitchers I’ve been around, week to week, month
ity, combined with his control and the downhill
side of his game. Strength coach Matt Couch
to month.”
angle he throws from makes it difficult for
has helped him improve his physique. The
opposing hitters.
Longhorns have fun together as a team,
Madden’s dedication to his process plays a key role in his success, working in concert with his powerful fastball-slider combination and his work
Madden pairs his fastball with a hard slider
but their culture is built on hard work.
ethic. Together, they make him college baseball’s best pitching prospect
that also has plus potential. He developed that
in the 2021 draft class aside from Vanderbilt righthanders Jack Leiter and
pitch two years ago while he was pitching for
His father told him to find something from
Kumar Rocker.
Chatham in the Cape Cod League. Prior to that
an early age and be great at it. Now, as he has
summer, Madden had been caught between a
taken a step forward as a prospect, and the
advice of Huston Street. The former big leaguer and Texas great returned
curveball and a slider. Chatham pitching coach
Longhorns are taking a step forward as a team,
to school in 2020 to finish his degree and joined the coaching staff as a
Dennis Cook helped him to better visualize the
his father’s direction continues to push him.
student assistant. He advised Madden to limit himself to one night of
pitch by telling him to throw more of a cutter.
“There’s no settling for average—that’s
Central to Madden’s process is a 24-hour rule he adopted last year at the
thinking about his start, good or bad. Madden’s improved mental approach has helped him flourish. He’s also been helped by a jump in velocity he made over the last year. In the
That’s a foundation that suits Madden well.
“I threw what I thought was a cutter for a
been with me since I was a little kid,” Madden
week,” Madden said. “That was a true slider.”
said. “I’ve grown since I’ve come to school and
Now, Madden has enough feel for his break-
I see the glimpses of what I can do. There’s so
abbreviated 2020 season, his fastball touched 94 mph and sat 91-92. He
ing ball to manipulate it to act more like that
much more that I can do to grow and develop,
had touched higher before, but his velocity was never consistently above
true slider, throwing it in the upper 80s, or
and I’m wasting my potential if I don’t tap
the low 90s.
add more depth to the pitch, making it more
into that.” Q
44
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
ANGELA WANG; BRIAN WESTERHOLT/FOUR SEAM IMAGES
emerge as College World Series contenders this season.
Georgia high school righthander Bubba Chandler is such an athletic marvel that he pitched an immaculate inning lefthanded this season.
HIGH SCHOOL
TWO-WAY WONDER
Bubba Chandler excels on the mound, in the field, on the gridiron and in every other athletic endeavor by
T
ALEXIS BRUDNICKI
he laundry list of sports that Bubba Chandler excels at is lengthy. Whether he’s on the diamond, the gridiron, the field, the court, the green—the consensus is that he will excel. Committed to Clemson to play both baseball and football,
Chandler is a two-way draft prospect with high upside on the mound who transforms into a switch-hitting shortstop anytime he’s not on the hill. Minor football injuries brought the quarterback’s high school basketball career to a premature end before his junior year. But he can still dunk, and there’s little doubt that he could stretch the imagination in any sporting venue. “He’s a competitor, so you can put him on a basketball court and he’s going to be really good; take him out to the golf course and he’s really good at that, too,” said Tyler Aurandt, Chandler’s football coach at North Oconee High in Bogart, Ga. “He’s the kind of naturally gifted athlete you don’t see very often.” “Bubba was probably the best basketball player in our school,” said Jay Lasley, the Titans’ baseball coach. “I would imagine if you gave him a soccer ball, he could probably go out on a high school soccer field and com-
It’s pretty impressive. “It says a lot about how gifted he is as an athlete.”
day with me, it should be a pretty fine pitch.” Continuing to find ways to expand his toolbox, on July 26 last year, Chandler committed to
Chandler’s two-way athleticism offers him
gaining weight and adding strength so he could
significant upside. Beyond that, it’s also allowed
“take more hits” at quarterback. In four months
him to become more of a kinesthetic learner,
he put on 35 pounds, giving him an advantage
yards lefthanded. He actually pitched one inning this season lefthanded.”
which has helped him add pitches to a reper-
on the diamond that he didn’t foresee, allowing
Though Chandler has been shooting a basketball, writing and cutting
toire that already includes a mid-90s fastball,
him “to sustain velocity and throw harder,” and
steak lefthanded for years, Aurandt first discovered Chandler’s ability to
a hammer curveball and a seldom-used chan-
“to hit balls further.”
send a football halfway down the field with his non-dominant arm in his
geup. It allows him to visualize the action, then
sophomore year. Around the same time, Lasley found the 6-foot-3, 205-
actualize the vision.
pete and do something to help a team win. “The crazy thing about Bubba is Bubba can throw a football over 50
pound athlete experimenting on the mound as a southpaw, and he made Chandler a promise.
“I started throwing a slider this year, really
Chandler doesn’t have a preference between a future in baseball or football as of yet. Baseball was his first love, getting his start at 4 years
just playing around with it,” Chandler said.
old and hoping to be a two-way player for “the
“But then I started to get the feel for it and
rest of his career,” but he finds his recent foot-
you throw one inning lefthanded,’ ” Lasley said. “So we were in a game
learn how to throw it. It’s been a pretty good
ball successes “fascinating,” and is interested
this year and he went out and threw one inning lefthanded. He wasn’t
pitch, and it’s good when my fastball is dialed
in where they could take him. He is rated as a
throwing max effort because we didn’t want him to get hurt, but he went
in and I can work it off of my fastball, kind of
four-star prospect by 247 Sports and the
out and struck out three hitters on nine pitches.”
like how (former North Oconee teammate and
No. 19 pro-style quarterback in the 2021
current Vanderbilt standout) Kumar Rocker
recruiting class.
“I told him, ‘Bubs, here’s the deal, when you become a senior, I’ll let
It was an immaculate inning amid an already-impressive season for the young hurler, who mixed a loopy curveball in with his fastball from the
does. Whenever he’s really good, his fastball’s
left side. Chandler’s dominance was even appreciated by his opponents,
working and that makes his slider look a lot
combines his high standard of care in task com-
the opposing coach offering encouragement because he wanted to see it
better, so really I mimicked him.
pletion with a sense of humor. With a father
for himself. The most extraordinary component to Chandler’s ambidexterity, how-
“The cutter, sometimes I’ll try to throw it
He even excels in his home life, where he
meticulous about his yard, and Chandler’s
and it doesn’t really do what it needs to do. It
chores including mowing the lawn and
will sink, but it will still be pretty fast. But then
weed-whacking once or twice a week, he knows
sometimes I’ll throw it and it will cut eight
there are absolutely no limits to what he might
were trying to minimize how much he threw but still get him some work,
inches and be 95 or 96 (mph). So I’ve really got
someday become.
he threw a lot for us lefthanded,” Aurandt said. “You couldn’t tell one way
to work on that but whenever I get in a system
or another if he was right or lefthanded by the way he threw the football.
that can really teach me and go over stuff all
ever, is that it doesn’t seem remarkable at all. “This past summer when he was playing a lot of baseball games, and we
Says Chandler, “Oh, if sports fail, I’m going to be a landscaper.” Q 45
Departments
Florida State catcher Matheu Nelson showed scouts plus power this spring and was tied for the national lead with 20 home runs.
TOP 10 POPUPS The amateurs who have done the most to boost their draft stock this spring by
I
CARLOS COLLAZO
n a typical year, a list of popup draft prospects and players trending up would be filled more with high school standouts who have taken a big step forward or who came out of nowhere after not playing on the summer showcase circuit.
However, given the shortened 2020 amateur season and a blown-up
evaluation period for the college class last summer, it makes sense that there are plenty of players from the college ranks who are turning heads and moving quickly up draft boards. Perhaps without the pandemic, many of these players would have been able to establish themselves as top players in the class a year ago—but that isn’t the case. Here are 10 players—along with their ranking on the BA board—who have popped up this spring and taken a step forward. The list includes nine collegians and one of the top high school performers who could land in the first round on July 11. 46
PEYTON STOVALL, SS HAUGHTON (LA.) HIGH NO. 37 Stovall was one of the first names left off of our preseason top 200 and he quickly showed the industry he needed to be quite a bit higher than the sixthor seventh-round range implied. Stovall has been one of the most impressive offensive performers in the high school class, and some scouts believe he’s the best pure hitter in the South on the prep side. His ability to access power now should overcome any concerns about his defensive profile fitting best at second base at the next level. He is an Arkansas commit.
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
MICHAEL MCGREEVY, RHP UC SANTA BARBARA NO. 34 As of May 18, McGreevy’s 12.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio was good for the second-best among Division I arms, and that outstanding command and control is part of the reason he could wind up fitting in the first round. On top of his strike-throwing, McGreevy has a fastball in the 91-95 mph range, a curveball that scouts put plus grades on and a slider and changeup that round out his repertoire. He has physical projection remaining and a relatively low-mileage arm. He has all the traits and the performance teams
want to see this spring, including a 10-strikeout, onewalk outing over 6.1 innings against UCLA. MATT MIKULSKI, LHP FORDHAM NO. 40 Mikulski ranked as the No. 203 prospect in the 2020 class but returned this spring and scouts quickly saw an entirely different pitcher thanks to a key mechanical adjustment. Mikulski shortened his arm action—similar to what unlocked White Sox righthander Lucas Giolito—and after topping out around 93-94 mph a year ago has consistently been up to 97-98 from the left side. Through 10 starts and 61.1 innings, Mikulski had posted a 1.47 ERA while striking out 112 batters to just 25 walks—good for far and away the best strikeout rate of his career (16.4 per nine innings). MATHEU NELSON, C FLORIDA STATE NO. 43 Nelson was a draft-eligible sophomore in the 2020 class and a solid but unspectacular all-around toolset had him ranked at No. 250. He’s been a different player this spring, showing much-improved power production. As of May 18, he was tied with Florida outfielder Jud Fabian for the most homers in the
COURTESY OF ALABAMA ATHLETICS; ANDREW WOOLLEY/FOUR SEAM IMAGES
DRAFT
country with 20. Now, scouts are putting plus power grades on the card, and when that’s combined with solid defensive tools—it might be surprising for Nelson to last beyond the first day of the draft. ROBERT GASSER, LHP HOUSTON NO. 59 Gasser has a fitting name for a hard-throwing pitcher, but velocity up to 96 mph at his best is a new component of his game. Previously, Gasser sat in the 89-90 mph range, but that has ticked up this spring after an offseason when he lived in the weight room and threw plenty of long toss across the outfield by himself, running from one foul pole to the other and back again. He has a four-pitch mix with a slider, curveball and changeup. Through 12 starts he had posted a 2.48 ERA with 93 strikeouts and 24 walks. PEYTON WILSON, 2B ALABAMA NO. 66 Wilson was entirely off the radar entering the season, but his performance has put him squarely on the map. A second-year eligible second baseman, Wilson played just 12 games in the shortened 2020 season, but between those games and 48 this spring, he was a career .303/.367/.483 hitter with nine home runs and 14 doubles. Wilson is a plus runner with fringy power, but the twitchy switch-hitter has the hands to stick in a middle infield spot at the next level and teams are starting to find conviction in his hit tool. DYLAN SMITH, RHP ALABAMA NO. 81 Peyton Wilson’s teammate at Alabama, Smith has a four-pitch mix with a fastball that sits around 92 mph and is up to 96, as well as a slider, curveball and changeup that all land in the low 80s. Smith previ-
ously pitched out of the bullpen for Alabama, but has shown better strike-throwing ability in his first full-time starter role this spring, with better tempo and consistency than scouts have seen in the past. Smith is athletic with a quick arm and a 6-foot-2, 180-pound frame that has plenty of room to add more strength. TREY SWEENEY, SS EASTERN ILLINOIS NO. 82 Sweeney has been a consistent performer for Eastern Illinois but has taken things to a new level this spring. Now, plenty of eyeballs are focused on him. Through 45 games, Sweeney was hitting .409/.542/.761 with 14 home runs and 43 walks to 22 strikeouts. His competition isn’t great, and scouts note that he has some moving parts to his swing, but he has always found the barrel and this spring is hitting for more power than he had shown previously. Defensively, he has a tweener infield profile that might fit best at third base. CHRISTIAN ENCARNACION-STRAND, 3B OKLAHOMA STATE NO. 89 Encarnacion-Strand spent two years at Yavapai (Ariz.) JC and hit over .400 with standout power potential both years, but scouts were waiting to see if that production would transfer to a four-year program. Through 47 games, it seems clear that it has. The 6-foot, 224-pound third baseman had produced a .352/.429/.699 line with 15 home runs. It’s a power-oriented profile and a strength-based swing that comes with swing-and-miss (18.8% strikeouts), but his power is real and scouts think there’s enough bat speed to catch up to fastballs. TYLER BLACK, 2B WRIGHT STATE NO. 99 Black was one of 10 sleeper candidates that we
GABRIEL MORENO BLUE JAYS
THE
Alabama righthander Dylan Smith had shined as a starter this spring after previously working in the bullpen. He throws four pitches and has improved his control.
identified prior to the season with the help of scouts. Despite Black’s struggles in the shortened 2020 season, evaluators loved his ability to control the zone and figured he could be in line for a bounceback campaign. Black doubled in his season debut against Vanderbilt righthander Kumar Rocker and didn’t look back. He hit .372/.500/.635 with 36 walks to 22 strikeouts, nine home runs and 10 doubles. While his defensive tools are limited—he’s probably destined for second base—most teams have a lot of confidence in his bat. Q
The Blue Jays signed Moreno out of Venezuela in 2016 and have watched as he’s grown into one of the game’s more intriguing catching prospects. He spent time at the Blue Jays’ alternate training site in 2020 and impressed his more veteran teammates. Athleticism, hand-eye coordination and barrel control are some of Moreno’s hallmarks, and he’s already earned rave reviews at Double-A early in the 2021 season.
2021 CAPTAIN’S CATCHER’S AWARD WATCH LIST
AWARD The Captain’s Catcher’s Award recognizes the defensive qualities of minor league catchers.Inspired by the catching skills and character of Jason Varitek, this award is only about catching and who plays the position to the fullest. The best catchers are detail oriented and driven to improve their performance behind the plate. Leadership,dedication, the ability to call a game, blocking, receiving, and making plays are the primary qualities sought after—with the ultimate goal of protecting home.
MIKE JANES/FOUR SEAM IMAGES
Player, Team
#MFRA
Miguel Amaya, Chicago (NL) Gabriel Moreno, Toronto Israel Pineda, Washington Austin Wells, New York (AL) Francisco Alvarez, New York (NL) Tyler Soderstrom, Oakland Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Luis Campusano, San Diego
PCT
G
E
PB
SBA
CS
PCT
1.000 1.000 .980 .976 .956 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .969
7 8 8 8 6 8 10 8 10 8
0 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 3 3 1 3 0 3 0 2
14 10 9 16 8 10 11 17 6 8
7 4 7 2 2 2 7 5 1 1
.500 .400 .778 .125 .250 .200 .143 .294 .167 .125
MOVE FORWARD RISE ABOVE™ E 47
Scout Spotlight SCOUTS IN THEIR OWN WORDS. THE PLAYERS. THE JOURNEY. THE STATE OF THE GAME.
Dodgers scout Marty Lamb trusted his instincts when he went to see Division II outfielder Luke Raley a second time. Seeing him again made all the difference, and five years after signing in 2016, Raley reached the big leagues.
Food, shelter, doctor, dental, therapy, counseling, all that kind of stuff. Then hopefully they’ll move into the transitional living where they can stay another year, which helps them get their feet on the ground. We’ve also started to a social enterprise called Survivor Made where they’re able to make candles and leather goods and those kind of
things. Just the self-confidence, the self-worth, job skills, working with other people . . . it’s really been neat to see some of these girls, what they’ve come out of, and now where they’re at. It’s been a blessing to me to be able to work with them and just to see just the courage and tenacity of some of these girls who go through the program. Q
MLB debuts with their signing scouts We celebrate the scouts who signed this year’s major league debuts, with this installment covering the period from April 16 to May 15. Rays lefthander Shane McClanahan made his MLB debut in the 2020 postseason, but since he didn’t make his regular season debut until 2021, he is included here along with his signing scout.
Dodgers scout adds three to his growing total of big leaguers by KYLE GLASER
M
arty Lamb has been one of baseball’s top scouts since he joined the Dodgers in 1999. As the organization’s area scout for Ohio, Tennessee and Kentucky, Lamb has signed 12 major leaguers, highlighted by Walker Buehler, Will Smith and Chad Billingsley.
Early this season, three more players he signed made their major league debuts. Lamb
joined the BA podcast in May to discuss his longevity, signing his latest big leaguers Luke Raley, Jordan Sheffield and Zach Pop and his work with the organization. This Q&A has been edited for length and clarity.
Q: You’ve had quite the track record of signing future big leaguers. What’s your secret? A: (Laughs). I guess the secret is working for a good organization. I mean, I’ve been lucky enough with (scouting directors) Ed Creech, Logan White, Tim Hallgren and now Billy Gasparino, and then all the people underneath them. And then you know the player development guys that once they get (drafted players) and the work that they’ve done with them. I’ve enjoyed working with the Dodgers. We’ve just got a bunch of good people who are all working for the same goal. Q: Raley was a seventh-round pick in 2016 out of Division II Lake Erie College. What did you see in him there? A: It’s a cool story. We had seen Raley at an Ohio small school showcase in the fall, but he was going to have to have knee surgery. So the way he showed at that showcase wasn’t a true measure. I don’t think he ran. You didn’t see really the raw power because of his legs, that kind of thing.
48
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
(Later in the year) Vanderbilt’s playing, I get them Friday and Saturday, and Lake Erie is in Nashville. So I thought, ‘I’ll shoot over there.’ We go over and (Raley is) getting in the cage and I’m like, ‘This is a little different than I remember’ ... Then he gets in the game and he went oppo jack the first at-bat (and) grounded out where he ran average. I’m like, ‘Whoa, wait a minute, this is different than we saw before.’ I went and saw him again. It was the same thing and I was like, “I’m good.” I mean, it’s body, it’s athlete, strength, it’s a good swing, the ball came off his bat, he ran, played center field. He showed you all the things that you wanted to see.” Q: Beyond just your role as a scout, you’re on the board of directors for a nonprofit organization called Refuge for Women. Tell us a little about this organization. A: Refuge for Women started in Kentucky and it’s a shelter that girls can stay in up to a year to try to escape human trafficking and sexual exploitation. Everything’s taken care of.
Team
Date
Signing Scout(s)
Alex De Goti, 2B Scott Hurst, OF Camilo Doval, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Nick Maton, 2B/SS J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Sam Hentges, LHP Rodolfo Castro, 3B Zack Short, SS
Astros Cardinals Giants Astros Phillies D-backs Indians Pirates Tigers
April 16 April 16 April 18 April 18 April 19 April 20 April 20 April 21 April 21
John Martin Brock Ungricht Gabriel Elias Nick Venuto Justin Morgenstern Tim Bittner (Astros) Les Pajari Rene Gayo/Juan Mercaso/Jose Ortiz Matt Sherman (Cubs)
Gregory Santos, RHP Ryan Hendrix, RHP DJ Peters, OF Jose Devers, SS Kent Emanuel, LHP Aaron Northcraft, RHP Corey Ray, OF Jason Vosler, 3B Bailey Falter, LHP Louis Head, RHP Zac Lowther, LHP Trevor Megill, RHP Hyeon-Jeon Yang, LHP Jay Flaa, RHP Justin Lawrence, RHP Shane McClanahan, LHP Ben Rortvedt, C Edwin Uceta, RHP Mario Feliciano, C Lucas Gilbreath, LHP Wyatt Mills, RHP Nick Sandlin, RHP Alec Bettinger, RHP Keegan Thompson, RHP Daniel Lynch, LHP Andy Ibañez, 3B Anthony Bender, RHP Patrick Mazeika, C Hunter Owen, OF Nick Gordon, 2B Jack Kruger, C Isaac Mattson, RHP Sebastian Rivero, C Trevor Larnach, OF Troy Stokes Jr., OF Luis Madero, RHP Cody Poteet, RHP Logan Gilbert, RHP Jarred Kelenic, OF Ivan Castillo, 2B Jake Hager, SS
Giants Reds Dodgers Marlins Astros Padres Brewers Giants Phillies Rays Orioles Cubs Rangers Orioles Rockies Rays Twins Dodgers Brewers Rockies Mariners Indians Brewers Cubs Royals Rangers Marlins Mets Pirates Twins Angels Orioles Royals Twins Brewers Marlins Marlins Mariners Mariners Padres Mets
April 22 April 23 April 23 April 24 April 24 April 24 April 24 April 24 April 25 April 25 April 25 April 26 April 26 April 27 April 29 April 29 April 30 April 30 May 1 May 1 May 1 May 1 May 2 May 2 May 3 May 4 May 5 May 5 May 5 May 6 May 6 May 7 May 7 May 8 May 9 May 10 May 12 May 13 May 13 May 14 May 15
Eddie Romero/Manny Nanita (Red Sox) Byron Ewing Tom Kunis Juan Rosario (Yankees) Tim Bittner Tom Battista (Braves) Jeff Simpson Matt Sherman (Cubs) Demerius Pittman Kyle Van Hook (Indians) Adrian Dorsey Brent Mayne (Padres) Curtis Jung Dan Durst John Cedarburg Brett Foley Mark Wilson Luis Marquez/Matt Doppelt Charlie Sullivan Brett Baldwin Alex Ross/Jeff Sakamoto Chuck Bartlett James Fisher Alex McClure Jim Farr Jose Fernandez/Roberto Aquino/Gil Kim/Thad Levine George Vranau (Royals) Jon Updike Anthony Wycklendt Brett Dowdy J.T. Zink Jared Barnes (Angels) Richard Castro/Alberto Garcia/Orlando Estevez Kyle Blackwell Dan Nellum (Brewers) Marlon Urdaneta/Andres Garcia (D-backs) Robby Corsaro Rob Mummau Chris Hervey (Mets) Ramon Pena/Felix Nivar (Indians) Jayson Durocher (Rays)
ABBIE PARR/GETTY IMAGES; MITCHELL LAYTON/GETTY IMAGES
Player, Pos
FOR THE RECORD
Obituaries VICTOR BARON, a catcher who played in the minor leagues from 1958-61 and in 1966, died March 18. He was 82. VINCENT COMER, who played in the minors in 1962 and ’63, died April 8 in Shenandoah, Va. He was 79. JOE CUNNINGHAM, a first baseman/outfielder who played in the major leagues for 12 seasons between 1954 and ’66 for the Cardinals, Senators and White Sox, died March 25 in Chesterfield, Mo. He was 89. Cunningham finished his career with a .403 on-base percentage, which ranks 48th best all time. He made the 1959 all-star team. That year, he also led the National League with a .453 OBP. After his playing career ended, Cunningham managed in the Cardinals’ farm system in the 1960s and ’70s.
under Bobby Valentine and who also wrote “The Hitting Edge” in 2003, died April 20 in Chandler, Ariz. He was 75. KRIS ROUKEY, a team employee for the Indians for 20 years who most recently served as a coordinator for used goods and previously operated the department store at Thurman Munson Stadium in Canton, died May 2 in Akron, Ohio. He was 48. Roukey, who was working as a Lyft driver, was shot and killed by his passenger after dropping the man off in Akron, according to police.
Ray Miller managed for parts of four seasons in the big leagues, but he is best remembered as the successful pitching coach of the late 1970s and early ’80s Orioles and early ’90s Pirates. He worked with Cy Young Award winners Mike Flanagan (1979) and Steve Stone (1980) in Baltimore and Doug Drabek (1990) in Pittsburgh.
LEWIS SHELLENDER, who played in the minor leagues in 1947 after serving for the U.S. in World War II, died April 28. He was 96. LARRY SLUSSER, a territory scout for the Expos and Astros in the 1990s, died May 4 in Carlisle, Pa. He was 73. GARY YORK, a first baseman/third baseman who played in the minor leagues from 1965-69, died April 16 in Rome, Ga. He was 76. Q
ADRIAN GARRETT, an outfielder/catcher who played parts of eight seasons in the major leagues between 1966 and ’76 with the Cubs, Angels, Athletics and Braves, died April 22 in Kyle, Texas. He was 78. Garrett hit .185/.263/.333 with 11 home runs in 276 at-bats. SAM GRANTEED, who played in the minor leagues in 1954, died April 24 in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. He was 87. DICK HASLER, a catcher who played in the minor leagues in 1949, died March 15. He was 91. PAUL JONES, a middle infielder who played in the minor leagues in 1952—before serving in the Army— and from 1954-59, died April 15 in Exeter Township, Pa. He was 90. GORDON LAMBERT, a lefthander who pitched in
the minor leagues in 1957, died March 18 in Marion, Ill. He was 86. EDDIE LEMPAS, a second baseman who played
in the minor leagues from 1948-50 and in 1953, died March 31 in West Reading, Pa. He was 91. BILL MATTHEWS, a third baseman/catcher who
played in the minor leagues in 1971 and ’72, died March 16 in Smyrna, Tenn. He was 69. CHARLES MCGHEE, a righthander who played
in the minor leagues from 1948-50, died March 26 in Chancellor, Va. He was 93. RAY MILLER, who managed the Twins in 1985 and
’86 and the Orioles in 1998 and ’99, posting a career 266-297 (.473) record, died May 5. He was 76. Miller managed for four seasons but is best remembered as the pitching coach for the Orioles (1978-85, 1997 and 2004-05) and Pirates (1987-96). He worked with historic managers Earl Weaver and Davey Johnson in Baltimore and Jim Leyland in Pittsburgh. Miller mentored six playoff pitching staffs, including the World Series-champion 1983 Orioles and three-time National League East-champion Pirates of 1990, ’91 and ’92. Miller’s famous motto was “Work fast. Change speeds. Throw strikes.” PETER PIERCE III, a member of the Society for American Baseball Research who authored several books on minor league baseball in Oklahoma, died May 2. He was 71. TOM ROBSON, a DH and first baseman who played in 23 games for the Rangers in 1974 and ’75 before later serving as a hitting coach for the Rangers and Mets 49
Column
After 18 months away from competitive game action, minor league hitters, pitchers and fielders appeared rusty. The minor leaguewide fielding percentage was down 10 points in the early stages of the season.
PERSPECTIVE
AN INSTRUCTIVE REMINDER The long layoff has proven that minor league players need repetitions—and lots of them—to stay sharp
J.J. COOPER @ JJCOOP36
B
aseball is undergoing an unplanned experiment in 2021. Take players away from competitive game action for 20
months. Find out what happens when they return to the field. spin, and they trained to increase exit velocity.
or walk had increased by nine percentage
appears to be plenty of poor play. Too many
That’s it. No one picked up a glove,” a second
points.
walks. Too many strikeouts. Too many defen-
pro scout said.
sive miscues. Across the country, the return of minor
pitcher walked 4.6 batters per nine innings
was no easy way to work on the timing
and struck out 11 per nine innings, he would
league baseball has been eagerly anticipated.
required to know whether to try to throw to
be right on the minor league average in both
Communities that were left without baseball
second base or third on a ground ball or take
categories, even if both the walk rate and the
for the entire 2020 season packed the stands—
the easier out at first base.
strikeout rate seem sky high to anyone who
as much as was allowed with coronavirus restrictions—to watch players return to action.
A catcher can catch some bullpens, but that
has been watching baseball for a while.
doesn’t replicate the experience of managing a
But it’s not just walks and strikeouts.
In the first few weeks of the 2021 season,
game. And not every catcher has had pitchers
In 2017, 2018 and 2019, full-season minor
what they saw is a reminder that baseball is a
around to practice receiving low-90s sliders.
league teams had either a .976 or .977 fielding
sport that requires repetitions to master. Lots of them. Just as a golfer can’t ready his or herself for a major tournament entirely by hitting drives on a practice range, some patience is going
“We grade tools. A lot of things about playing the game are skills. Skills require practice,”
percentage every year. This year, it was sitting at .970 as of mid
a third scout said. “Baseball is a game sport,
May. Low-A understandably always has the
not a practice sport.
lowest fielding percentage among full-season
“The pandemic has exposed a lot of things.
levels, but its .961 fielding percentage was 10
to be required for minor league players to get
One thing it has exposed is the limits of just
points worse than its worst performance of the
back into the swing of things.
the lab. You have to play games to get a feel
previous three seasons.
Scouts watching games at all levels of the minors were quickly taken aback by the low
for the game.” Hitters were working to get their timing
“Live game speed is probably the biggest adjustment right now, especially
quality of play, especially when it came to
back. Pitchers were struggling with command
defensively,” the fourth scout said. “The game
defense, quality of at-bats and pitcher’s com-
and control issues.
is getting fast on some guys.”
mand and control. Unprompted, a number of them reached out
As of mid May, 40% of all plate appearanc-
All of this will get better. By June and July,
es in the minors had resulted in a walk or a
the rust that has come from unprecedented
over the first week of the season just to note
strikeout. The corresponding rate in the major
layoffs will start to flake away. Hitters will get
how subpar the standard of play had been,
leagues, where strikeout and walk rates con-
their timing back. Fielders will be less likely to
whether they were watching Class A, Double-A
tinue to climb, was 33%.
botch apparently simple plays.
or Triple-A.
Both the 12% walk rate and 28% strikeout
But the early-season hiccup also serves to
rate were far beyond any corresponding rates
remind us of the value of minor league games
of strikeouts, bad at-bats, bad defense. Sloppy
seen at any time in the history of the
in a time when players can train and perform
play in general and lots of plodding games. It’s
minor leagues.
at hitting and pitching facilities.
“It’s god-awful,” one pro scout said. “Tons
hard to watch.” It’s not that players didn’t work during their
The lower levels of the minors always see
The state of the minor league game in the
more swinging and missing. Through the early
first weeks of the 2021 season is a useful
extra-long layoff during the pandemic. It’s just
stages of 2021, hitters at Low-A were striking
reminder that there are parts of the devel-
that with baseball, there are aspects that can
out a tick less than 30% of the time, compared
opment process that are best experienced by
easily be worked on alone, such as increasing
to 26% of the time at Triple-A.
playing games and learning on the field.
strength, velocity, bat speed or power. Others
In 2019, the last season played, the minor
And that’s some of what was missed by a
aspects can’t easily be replicated without get-
leagues set previous highs with a 24% strike-
lost 2020 season, which is why it’s so import-
ting on the field and into game situations.
out rate and a 9% walk rate.
ant that players are getting back on the field
“I know what minor league guys did for 18 months. They trained to increase velocity and 50
Even if a player did pick up a glove, there
Put in different terms, if a minor league
JUNE 2021 • BASEBALLAMERICA.COM
So this year, the rate of plate appearances ending in either a strikeout
in 2021. We could not be more excited. Q
BRIAN WESTERHOLT/FOUR SEAM IMAGES
Early in the minor league season, the answer