Project Planning Process

3-PROJECT PLANNING PROCESS 3.1 Integrated project planning 3-2The work breakdown structure 3-3 Network Logic (CPM) 3.4 Estimating fundamentals :Time, cost and budget 3.5 Scheduling : Gantt chart and PERT 3-6 OUTPUTS Summary key points

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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3.1 Integrated project planning Module Overview • • • •

Planning Process : why plan?

Project plan : what inside?

Integrated project planning model Managing the change to the plan

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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The Planning Process Parker’s Proverb Planning is like insurance. It’s too expensive until you need it, and then it’s too late.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Why plan?

Why would you not plan?

As much or as little as you need to demonstrate to stakeholders that you have thought of everything, and have a plan to get there.

.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Why plan?

Why would you not plan?

The better we plan, the better we can execute on time and within budget to meet customer expectations and organizational objectives.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Why plan? To manage Project we need constructing a model The model can be simple or complex The Triple constraint ( time, cost, performance) is a simple three element model of a project system

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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What is in a project plan?

Your plan may include: • Introduction – – – –

Overview, Deliverables, Constraints, Definitions

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What is in a project plan?

Your plan may include: • Management structure – – – –

Project reporting, Communication Plan, Risk Management, Change management

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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What is in a project plan?

Your plan may include: • Planning – – – – – – –

Activity schedule Resource identification, Resource allocation Project Charter, Quality Assurance Plan, Test and/or Training plans, Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Implementation Abdelghani Plan. Toumi and Tomas

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Ganiron Jr

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Building a Foundation for Success • If the problem is poorly defined — limit scope and work to defining it!

• If the solution is not clear — limit scope and work to analyzing options and recommending one!

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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PLANNING PROCESS ďƒ˜In the early phases: this is preparing the Project Management Plan and defining exactly what will happen. ďƒ˜In later phases : it is ensuring that the earlier planning is still valid, and incorporating any changes in resources or contingencies arising.

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Planning Process

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Planning Process Activities in this group are: Develop Plan

Project

management Scope Planning

Scope definition

Create Work Structure

Activity Definition

Activity Sequencing

Activity Resource Estimating

Activity Duration Estimating

Schedule Development

Cost Estimating

Cost Budgeting

Quality Planning

Human Resource Planning

Communications Planning

Risk Management Planning

Risk Identification

Qualitative Risk Analysis

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Risk Response Planning Plan Contracting 12/20/2009

PlanAlyahya, Purchases Authors:Sulayman Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

Breakdown

and Acquisitions 13

Project Planning ď ą The project planning process consists of the following. This a basic description of the

steps:

1.Setting the project start date 2. Setting the project completion date 3. Selecting the project methodology or project life cycle to be used 12/20/2009

Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Project Planning 4.Determining the scope of the project in terms of the phases of the selected project methodology or project life cycle 5.Identifying any predetermined interim milestone or other critical dates which must be met.

6.Listing tasks, by project phase, in the order in which they might be accomplished.

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Project Planning 7. Estimating the personnel necessary to accomplish each task 8. Estimating the personnel available to accomplish each task 9. Determining skill level necessary to perform each task 10. Determining task dependencies - Which tasks can be done in parallel - Which tasksAuthors:Sulayman requireAlyahya, the completion of Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas 12/20/2009 Ganiron Jr other tasks before they can start

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Planning Is Done Phase by Phase

Concept

Phase Start

Scope

Work 12/20/2009

End

Problem

Design Phase Start

Concept Documents

End

Const.

Phase Start

Design Documents

Updated Project Plan Authors:Sulayman Alyahya,

Project Plan

Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Integrated Project planning •Integration is a process of synthesizing different concepts into a unified Whole •Project management is primarily an interactive activity:  Most product failure is at the interface of subsystems The biggest complaint of people in projects is poor communications  Senior managers expect PM taking a strategic and holistic perspective on the project •We adopt the model published by the Project Management Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Institute 12/20/2009

Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Integrated Project planning PMI model PROCUREMENT

Risk

COMMUN I-CATION

SCOPE TIME

Project Planning

HUMAN RESOURCE Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, S

Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

COST

QUALITY

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3-2 Work Breakdown Structure Module Overview • • • • •

Definition The elements of a WBS WBS structure 6 steps to develop a WBS Tips and tricks

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Work Breakdown Structure

Abram’s Advice When eating an elephant, take one bite at a time.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Work Break Down structure WBS A definition • Awork breakdown structure(WBS) is a hierarchic decomposition or breakdown of a project or major activity into successive levels, in which each level is a finer breakdown of the preceding one.

• The WBS may be drawn in a diagrammatic form (if automated tools are available) or in a chart resembling an outline.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) • A structured definition of all the work of a project: – The things we have to do.

– The documents we have to produce.

– Any other tangible items we have to create.

• The WBS includes both management work and technical work.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Thesaurus (3) • Deliverables may also be called: – Sub-deliverables – Outputs – Work packages

 

Cost accounts Significant accomplishments

• Activities may also be called: – Tasks – Work packages

• Collectively, they are called work-items.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Using the WBS • Activities will be used as inputs to: – Effort and cost estimating – Sequencing and scheduling

• Deliverables may be used as: – Scheduling milestones – Progress measurement check points

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WBS Organized by Key Component

My New House

Project Management

…

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Residential Structure

Foundation

Framing

…

Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, … and Tomas Abdelghani Toumi Ganiron Jr

…

Swimming Pool

…

…

Finish Work

…

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WBS Organized

by Phase

New Product

Project Management

…

Start-up Meeting

…

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Requirements Document

Interview Notes Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, … and Tomas Abdelghani Toumi Ganiron Jr

…

User Acceptance

…

…

Report

…

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WBS For project phases ď ąThe first WBS level for the life cycle would be:

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WBS number Task Description 1.0 Project initiation 1.1 Draft project plan 2.0 Analysis phase 2.1 Plan user interviews 2.2 Schedule users interviews 3.0 Examination and test 4.0 Design 5.0 Test Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas 6.0 Implementation Ganiron Jr 7.0 Post implementation review

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WBS — Tips & Tricks • Decompose as much as you can now; revisit detail as needed.

• Remember to include a branch for project management!

• Characteristics of the lowest level: – One clear owner – Able to estimate effort and duration 12/20/2009

Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Tips & Tricks (cont’d) • Developing a WBS can be a real challenge if: – You don’t understand the scope.

– The scope is poorly defined.

• The activities (lowest level) should be the same regardless of how the deliverables (upper levels) are organized.

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Sample: WBS of wastewater plant

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Exercise: WBS (1) • Follow the ―Six Simple Steps‖ to develop a WBS on the slide for your group project: – Use sticky-notes to capture the information.

– Generate detail for one branch at a time.

– Document additional assumptions as appropriate.

• Try to develop 2 or 3 levels

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Exercise: WBS (2) • Document your lessons learned: – About the project you were planning.

– About developing a WBS.

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Summary of Key Points

• There is no ―one right way‖ to construct a work breakdown structure.

• AWOW — all the work and only the work.

• Post-Its really help!

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3-3 Network Logic Module Overview

• Basic sequencing terminology • Common errors to avoid • Tips and tricks

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Network Diagrams Activity scheduling • The most popular method is called Activity on Node or activity on Arrow.

• The task (activity) is represented by a node or Arrow, which also shows the time expected.

• Take the list of tasks from your Work Breakdown Structure • Determine any tasks that depend on other tasks.

• Attach resources to each task (people cannot do two jobs at once).

• Determine the timeline for the project.

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Activity-on-Arrow Network Fundamentals

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Sequencing Terminology Subnet = Design Activities Milestone

Activity A

Req’ts Done

Activity B

Activity C

Activity D

Dependency Activity E • B is predecessor Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, • E is successor Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas 12/20/2009

Ganiron Jr

Design Done

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Exercise: Basic Concepts • Working in teams, create a network logic diagram for the breakfast ―project‖ on the next slide.

• Assume unlimited resources and use finish-tostart dependencies.

• Sequence the activities as shown but note any problems, issues, or assumptions.

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Exercise : Breakfast Project

• Juice — get glass, get juice from fridge, pour juice, put glass with juice on table.

• Coffee — get coffee pot, fill pot with water, put coffee in pot, make coffee, get cup from cabinet, pour coffee, put cup with coffee on table.

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3-4 Estimating Fundamentals time, cost and budget Module Overview • What do we estimate and why? • The estimating process

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Estimating Drive Time

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What Do We Estimate?

• Effort — labor units required to complete an assignment; usually hours of a person’s time.

• Duration — work periods required to complete an assignment.

• Elapsed time — calendar periods required to complete an assignment.

• Cost — monetary value of labor, materials, andAuthors:Sulayman contracts.

Alyahya, 12/20/2009

Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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The Estimating Process : Factors to consider • Planning Horizon : the quality estimates of the current events are close to 100% accurate but are reduced for more distant events.

• Long duration Project increases uncertainty in estimates • A new technology : implementing a new technology with a poor written scope specifications result in errors in estimating 12/20/2009

Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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The Estimating Process : Factors to consider

1-People :

Accuracy of estimates depends on the skills of people making the estimates How people skills are near to the work to do? Team harmony ?

2-Project Structure : the type of project

structure chosen influence time and cost estimates ( Example : a dedicated project team Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas is speedy but costly as a permanent structure) 12/20/2009 Ganiron Jr 45

The Estimating Process : Factors to consider 3-Other non-project factors : Holidays, legal limits

4- Responsibility: estimates should be done by

persons most familiar with the task 5-Delphi estimating Method : Use several persons to estimate and find consensus 6-Time unit : specific time units to use should be selected early in the development phase 7-Adding risk assessment to the estimates : help to avoid surprises to stakeholders Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, 12/20/2009

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The Estimating Process Review • Define and document: – Work to be done (based on scope) – Assumptions (about scope or work) – Range of possible outcomes – Relevant supporting detail

• Review and revise as necessary

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Effort Estimates and Project Budgets Rules are made for the guidance of wise folk and the obedience of fools.

Anonymous

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Module Overview • • • •

Costing : some approaches Converting estimates into budgets Cost reserves Getting your budget approved

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Costing The easiest way to cost the project is to take the WBS and estimate the costs of each activity. Other considerations include capital costs, disbursements, costs of delays, contingencies.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Probable Time Estimate PERT is a management tool that is suited for research and development projects which are generally non-repetitive in nature and is sometime called ― once through‖ projects.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Three time estimates namely 1. Optimistic time-estimated minimum time an activity will

it take. Its probability is about 1 in 100 or 1%

2. Most Likely or probabilistic time- the estimated normal length of time an activity takes. This is the time expected that will most frequently required for an activity.

3. Pessimistic time-the estimated maximum time that will be required under the worst conditions. Its probability is about -1 in 100 or 1%

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Probability of Occurrence

Converting Estimates into Budgets

Most likely

25

30

Budget = Expected value = (O + ML + P) / 3

35

Optimistic

50

Pessimistic

Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Possible Outcomes 12/20/2009

Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Terminologies in Statistics • Expected Value-is the weighted average of all possible values that this random variable can take on.

• Variance-is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. It is one of several descriptors of a probability distribution, describing how far the numbers lie from the mean(expected value).

• Standard Deviation-measure of variability or diversity used in statistics and probability.

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Summing Ranges • First, for each activity calculate: – Expected value = EV = ( optimistic + most likely + pessimistic ) / 3 – Variance = (( pessimistic – optimistic ) / 5 )

2

• Then, for the project calculate: – Project – Project – Project project 12/20/2009

EV = sum of activity EVs variance = sum of activity variances standard deviation = square root of variance Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Problem No.1

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Interpretation Problem No. 1 • Mean EV= 41.57 or 42 • Standard Deviation=20 This means that almost all activity can be finished(71% assuming a normal distribution) within 20 days of the mean (22 days-62 days).

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Exercise No. 1 . Determine the variance & standard deviation. Include the interpretation Opt

ML

Pess

Send email to experts

3

5

8

Create tracking mechanism

2

3

5

75

100

125

125

150

250

Review 100 documents

Develop design document ‌

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Exercise No. 2: Effort, Budgets, and Reserves • Develop range estimates of effort for the activities at the lowest level of your WBS. • Record the estimates on the form provided: – Calculate the expected value for each.

– Calculate the variance for each.

• Sum the most likely values and the expected values.

Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, 12/20/2009

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… continued • Calculate the standard deviation of your project estimate: – Sum the activity variances.

– The square root of the sum is the project’s standard deviation.

• Estimate a general cost reserve for your project. Be prepared to justify it.

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3-5Project Schedule You can take your horse to the river, you can not force it to drink water Arab proverb

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3-4 Scheduling Module Overview

• • • • • •

Gantt chart Critical path calculations Preliminary schedules Baseline schedules Resource constraints Schedule reserve

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Which Path Is Most Likely to Cause Delay?

A (18)

D (11)

Start

B (14)

E (13)

Activity (Duration)

C (12)

F (16)

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

Finish

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Definitions: Critical Path

• The network path: – Which is most likely to cause the project to be late.

– With the longest duration.

– Which determines the shortest total length of the project.

– With the least amount of ―float.‖ 12/20/2009

Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Definition of Terms * Critical Path- the longest route in the network of activities representing a project. Activities along the critical path are called Critical activities of the project that may result of the delay in the entire project.

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* Earliest start (ES)- This is always equal to the earliest event at the beginning of an arrow which is sometimes called i-node. The point of an arrow is called j-node i-node

J-node

It is the first day after the physical assumption of the activity.

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* Earliest Finish (EF). This is the earliest

possible time that an activity can be finished. It is equal to its earliest start plus its duration or time. Therefore: EF = ES + duration * Latest Start(LS). This is the latest time that an activity can begin and not delay the completion time of the overall project.

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If the earliest start and latest start times are the same then the activity is critical.

Latest Finish(LF). This is the latest time that an activity can be finished and not delay the completion time of the overall project.

LS = LF-duration 12/20/2009

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As with start times, the activity is critical if the earliest finish and latest finish times are the same. * Total Float(TF)- The span of time an activity can be delayed after its earliest start time without delaying the project completion. This is the difference between the earliest start time and the latest start time.

TF = LF-EFAuthors:Sulayman or TF=Alyahya, LS-ES 12/20/2009

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Free Float (FF)- The span of time an activity can be delayed after its ES without delaying the ES of any succeeding actual activity that may be availed. It is equal to the ES of any of its succeeding real activities minus the EF of an activity in question. This is also equal to the earliest time at the i-node of the next succeeding real activity minus the EF of the activity.

FF=ES-(ES + duration) 12/20/2009

Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Critical Path Calculations • Forward pass — to determine the project’s ―natural end date‖ based on its early start and early finish dates.

• Backward pass — to determine late start and late finish dates.

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Critical Path Calculations EF = ES + Duration – 1

1

EF

Start LS

LF

4

9

10

B (10) 1

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15

16

F (9) 14 11

10

11

23

M (8)

22 19

H (9)

=0 1

7

6

A (6) ES

=7

Activity (Duration)

23

30

20

30

Q (11)

19 11

20

Finish

30

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L (17) 14 Alyahya, 30 Authors:Sulayman Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

LS = LF – Duration + 1 72

Problem: Using the following tabulation,(a) draw the network diagram. (b) determine the TF and FF. and (c) identify the critical activities & days Activity

Duration

1-2

10

1-3

6

2-4

8

2-5

13

3-5

12

4-5

4

5-6

2

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ES

EF

LS

LF

Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

TF

FF

Critical

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Total (Path) Float • The amount of time an activity may be delayed without affecting the project’s currently predicted early finish date.

• Total (Path) Float = Late Start – Early Start • Total (Path) Float is a measure of scheduling flexibility.

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GANTT CHART

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GANTT CHART EXAMPLE

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Two Kinds of Schedule!

• Preliminary schedule: – Used for enterprise resource planning, project approvals – Produced when specific resources are not yet known, start date not yet confirmed

• Baseline schedule:

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– Used for project planning and control – ProducedAuthors:Sulayman when resource availability is Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumidate and Tomas confirmed, start is set Ganiron Jr

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Building a Preliminary Schedule • For effort-based activities, calculate the expected duration: – Budgeted effort hours / hours per period / percent available – Example: 24 hours / 6 work hours per day / 50% available = 8 days duration

• For all other activities, use historical information or your best judgment.

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Exercise: Critical Path • Develop activity durations for each of the items in your WBS as described: – Use the expected value of your effort estimates and a 6 hour work day where appropriate.

– Use your best judgment otherwise.

• Determine a preliminary critical path for your project assuming that resources will be available when needed.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Summary of Key Points •

Network logic is independent of durations and resources. • Scheduling is fundamentally a resource management issue.

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Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas Ganiron Jr

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Problem: Using the following tabulation,(a) draw the network diagram. (b) determine the TF and FF. and (c) identify the critical activities & days

ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION PRECEDING ACTIVITY ACTIVITY TIME Application approval None 5 weeks A Construction plan A 15 B Traffic study A 10 C Service availability A 5 D E F G 12/20/2009

H

check Staff report

B,C

Commission B,C,D approval Wait for Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, F Abdelghani Toumi and Tomas construction Ganiron Jr occupancy E,G

15 10 170

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CRITICAL PATH • As managers, we must be sure that activities A,B,y,F,G and H are done on time. If any of those activities is late, the project will be late • Other paths are not critical because they can waste some time without slowing the project. For example, activity C, can take up to 5 extra weeks Authors:Sulayman Alyahya, and not holdAbdelghani up the Toumi project. and Tomas

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Ganiron Jr

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Critical Path Analysis ďƒźPERT developed in the 1950s to control large defense projects, and have been used routinely since then ďƒź'Critical Path Analysis' sounds very complicated, but it's a very logical and effective method for planning and managing complex projects.

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