THE NAIL
The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee
President Jim Hysen
Vice President Kelly Beasley
Secretary/Treasurer Eli Routh
Executive Vice President John Sheley
Editor and Designer Jim Argo
Staff
Connie Nicley Kim Grayson
THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.
SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.
POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.
2024 Fall Fest and Builders Show at the HBAMT
The HBAMT’s Annual Fall Fest & Builders Show took place at the HBAMT last month. A large crowd of builders and developers packed the event tent and enjoyed food, beverages, cash prizes, and vendor booths during a fun-filled evening for all.
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Installation Banquet sponsorships available
The association’s biggest night of the year returns Thursday, December 5th. Don’t miss out! Sponsor the popular event and reach hundreds of the industry’s top professionals.
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The HBAMT’s Annual Chili Cook-off this month!
Sign up now to enter your best chili recipe in the association’s annual Chili Cook-off Tuesday, November 12th. Register today!
Home sales rise in September as mortgage rates ease
Home buyers moved off the sidelines in September following the Federal Reserve’s recent move to cut interest rates for the first time in four years.
Sales of newly built, single-family homes in September increased 4.1% to a 738,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised August number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in September is up 6.3% compared to a year earlier.
“Despite challenging affordability conditions, home builder confidence edged higher in October as they anticipate that mortgage rates will gradually, in an uneven manner, moderate in the coming months,” said Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “There is a significant need for additional housing supply, as many prospective home buyers are entering the market.”
There is a significant need for additional housing supply, as many prospective home buyers are entering the market.
“Following the Fed’s actions in September, mortgage rates fell to 6.18%, from 6.5% in August,” said Jing Fu, director of forecasting and analysis for NAHB. “However, new home sales will likely weaken in October due to a recent rise in long-term rates.”
A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the September reading of 738,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.
New single-family home inventory in September remained elevated at a level of 470,000, up 8.0% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 7.6 months’ supply at the current building pace. Completed for-sale new homes rose to 108,000, the highest level since 2009.
The median new home sale price in September was $426,300, essentially unchanged from a year ago. The Census data reveals a gain for new home sales priced below $300,000, which made up 17% of new home sales in September, compared to 14% a year ago.
Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 19.2% in the Midwest, 1.1% in the South and 3.4% in the West. New home sales are down 1.1% in the Northeast. n
Single-family starts trend higher in September
With the Federal Reserve beginning an easing of monetary policy and builder sentiment improving, single-family starts posted a modest gain in September while multifamily construction continued to weaken because of tight financing and an ongoing rise in completed apartments
Overall housing starts decreased 0.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.35 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
The September reading of 1.35 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 2.7% to a 1.03 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. On a year-to-date basis, single-family construction is up 10.1%. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 9.4% to an annualized 327,000 pace. This marks the weakest pace since May.
“Single-family construction increased in September, mirroring NAHB’s survey of builder confidence,” said Carl Harris, NAHB chairman. “In the long-run, the most effective way to tackle the nation’s housing affordability crisis is to increase the housing supply. And as the election looms, policymakers need to be focused on the supply-side of the market to let builders build.”
“While single-family home building increased in September, higher mortgage interest rates in October are likely to place a damper on growth in next month’s data,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Nonetheless, NAHB is forecasting a gradual, if uneven, decline for mortgage rates in the coming quarters, with corresponding increases for single-family construction. Multifamily construction will remain weak as completions of apartments are elevated.”
On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 9.0% higher in the Northeast, 2.0% lower in
Builder confidence edges up two points in October
With inflation gradually easing and builders anticipating mortgage rates will moderate in coming months, builder sentiment moved higher for a second consecutive month despite challenging affordability conditions.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 43 in October, up two points from a reading of 41 in September, according to the NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released recently.
“While housing affordability remains low, builders are feeling more optimistic about 2025 market conditions,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris. “The wild card for the outlook remains the election, and with housing policy a top tier issue for candidates, policymakers should be focused on supply-side solutions to the housing crisis.”
“Despite the beginning of the Fed’s easing cycle, many prospective home buyers remain
on the sideline waiting for lower interest rates,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “We are forecasting uneven declines for mortgage interest rates in the coming quarters, which will improve housing demand but place stress on building lot supplies due to tight lending conditions for development and construction loans.”
The latest HMI survey also revealed that the share of builders cutting prices held steady at 32% in October, the same rate as last month. Meanwhile, the average price reduction returned to the long-term trend of 6% after dropping to 5% in September. The use of sales in-
the Midwest, 4.6% lower in the South and 5.4% lower in the West.
Overall permits decreased 2.9% to a 1.43 million unit annualized rate in September. Single-family permits increased 0.3% to a 970,000 unit rate. Multifamily permits decreased 8.9% to an annualized 458,000 pace. This is the weakest reading since May.
Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 0.8% higher in the Northeast, 2.6% higher in the Midwest, 2.2% lower in the South and 5.1% lower in the West.
The number of single-family homes under active construction totaled 642,000 in September. After stabilizing recently, this is down just 4.5% from a year ago. The number of multifamily units under construction declined 3.4% in September to an 842,000 total. This is 16.5% lower than a year ago and is the smallest count since February 2022.
As a sign of the reversal for multifamily construction, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of multifamily construction was 680,000 in September. This was roughly twice the pace of multifamily starts, meaning for every two apartments finishing construction, only one new unit began construction. The pace of multifamily completions was up 41% compared to a year ago. n
centives was 62% in October, slightly up from 61% in September.
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three HMI indices were up in October. The index charting current sales conditions rose two points to 47, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased four points to 57 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 29.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 51, the Midwest moved two points higher to 41, the South held steady at 41 and the West increased three points to 41 n
Builders Show at the HBAMT!
The 2024 Fall Fest & Builders Show at the HBAMT last month was a big success drawing a large crowd of builders and developers. Over 50 vendors and event sponsors participated in the popular event hosting exhibit booths underneath the big tent and greeting builders with snacks, beverages, and door prizes.
A big thanks to all the Fall Fest & Builders Show exhibitors and sponsors for making the event such a success. n
Builders make the rounds inside the Builders Show tent during the 2024 Fall Fest & Builders Show at the HBAMT.
Winning at the Builders Show! Jim Hysen and Derek Budde were the big winners at the 2024 Builders Show. Hysen took home the first cash prize of the evening and Budde took home the annual raffle cash prize. Budde also took home a pizza oven after winning the All South Appliance event drawing. Congratulations guys!
Derek Budde
Jim Hysen
Budde and the All South Apppliance team.
SPIKE REPORT
Twenty-two SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of September 30, 2024.
CHAPTERS & COUNCILS
CHAPTERS
CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Roy Miles
Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Mark Denney
Dickson County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Lisa Underwood
Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER
Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel
Metro/Nashville Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
Topic: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Robertson County Chapter details are currently being planned.
Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Joe Dalton
The Sumner County Chapter typically meets at the new Hendersonville Library. Future meetings to be announced.
Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Christina James Williamson County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Margaret Tolbert Next meeting: to be announced. Free with RSVP pending sponsorship. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
COUNCILS
HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL
The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets at varying locations throughout the year. Next meeting: to be announced. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL
Infill Builders Council details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL
Council President - Beth Lewis
The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month. Next meeting: Thursday, November 7th at Tennessee Valley Homes - 127 SE Pkwy Ct, Franklin, TN 37064 "BUILDER BATTLE!"
Join the SMC for a fun Generational Panel as the Industry’s legacy Builders and Developers go head-to-head with the industry’s trailblazers in the “Battle of the Builders!”
Legacy Builders: James Carbine, Jimmy Franks, David McGowan, and Ken Green.
Trailblazing Builders: Kelly Beasley, Eli Routh, Danny Clawson, and Wiggs Thompson.
Happy Hour at 4:00 p.m., Appetizers & Beverages!
RSVP today with YOUR question for the panel!
SMC MEMBERS FREE w/RSVP thanks to our sponsor, Carbine & Associates!
Non-SMC members: $20 with RSVP; $25 w/o RSVP RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
