THE NAIL
The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee
President Kelly Beasley
Vice President Eli Routh
Secretary/Treasurer Danny Clawson
Executive Vice President John Sheley
Editor and Designer Jim Argo
Staff
Connie Nicley Kim Grayson
THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.
SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.
POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.
up now to participate as a builder or a sponsor at the association's 2025 Spring Fling & Builders Show, this May at the HBAMT.
Housing starts on the rise, though uncertainty persists Single-family housing production should register a slight uptick in 2025 as builders contend with conflicting market conditions
your 2025 Parade of Homes Planbook ad today and reach potential customers for years to come.
New home sales decrease in January
New home sales decreased in January to a three-month low, as housing affordability continues to sideline potential home buyers. Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6% throughout 2025, coupled with elevated home prices, creating a significant affordability challenge for both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade.
Sales of newly built, single-family homes in January decreased 10.5% to a 657,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised December number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in January is down 1.1% compared to a year earlier.
A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the January reading of 657,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace
New single-family home inventory in January was up 7.4% compared to a year earlier.
continued for the next 12 months.
New single-family home inventory in January continued to rise to a level of 495,000, up 7.4% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 9 months’ supply at the current building pace.
Completed ready-to-occupy inventory was at a level of 118,000, up 39% compared to a year ago.
While the monthly supply of new homes is 9 months, there is currently only a 3.4 months’ supply of existing single-family homes on the market. NAHB estimates the combined new and existing total months’ supply rose to a 4.2 months’ supply in January. The market has not been near a 6 months’ supply, which represents a balanced market, since 2012.
The median new home sale price in January was $446,300, up 3.7% from a year ago. It is the highest median sale price since October 2022. The Census data reveals a decrease in new home sales priced between $300,000 and $399,999, which made up 24% of new home sales in January, compared to 29% a year ago.
Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are down 60.0% in the Northeast, and up 7.1% in the West. New home sales remain unchanged in the Midwest and South n
Housing starts make slight retreat on elevated interest rates
Constrained housing affordability conditions due to ongoing, elevated interest rates led to a reduction in single-family production to start the new year.
Overall housing starts decreased 9.8% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.37 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
The January reading of 1.37 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 8.4% to a 993,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate; the January pace was 1.8% lower than a year ago. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 13.5%
to an annualized 373,000 pace.
“As mirrored in our latest builder survey, high construction costs, elevated mortgage rates and challenging housing affordability conditions are causing builders to approach the market with caution,” said Carl Harris, NAHB chairman. “The uncertain policy environment in terms of a better regulatory climate and impending tariffs offers both upside and downside risks in the near-term.”
“The single-family home building market is facing competing concerns and opportunities for 2025,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Given persistent affordability concerns, reducing inefficient regulatory costs would offer the best policy path to improve attainable housing supply and bring down shelter inflation.”
Remodeling market poised for growth in 2025
An aging housing stock, record levels of home equity and favorable demographics will create positive growth prospects for the remodeling sector in 2025, according to experts at a panel hosted by the NAHB during the International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas.
The outlook bodes well for the remodeling sector. Consumer inflation remains a concern as shelter costs continue to be sticky despite tightening measures by the Federal Reserve. And while lower mortgage rates are potentially on the horizon, the process will be bumpy, as long-term interest rates could remain flat or even increase with larger fiscal deficits. These ongoing housing affordability challenges signal that demand for remodeling projects will remain solid in 2025.
The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI), a quarterly survey of NAHB remodeler members that provides insight for the remodeling industry, continues to exhibit positive sentiment.
“Remodeler sentiment has remained in positive territory, well above the break-even point of 50, since the second quarter of 2020,” said NAHB Economist Eric Lynch. “One of the key factors for growth in the remodeling market is the aging housing stock, which continues to drive ren-
ovation projects. Home owners are increasingly choosing to tap into their home equity and invest in improvements rather than relocate, creating long-term growth prospects for the industry.”
The RMI survey also showed that 98% of remodelers cited that most or some of their consumers are familiar with the aging-in-place concept. That share was 75% in the fourth quarter of 2004, indicating a significant increase in awareness among consumers over the last two decades and thus creating additional opportunities for growth in the market.
Lynch noted that while the industry has seen gradual improvements in the availability of labor and materials over the past few years, both remain ongoing challenges for remodelers. According to RMI survey results, the top five fields that remodelers reported labor shortages in include: carpenters-finished, carpenters-rough, framing crews, bricklayers/masons and concrete workers.
Remodelers report the products most difficult to get are appliances, windows and doors, HVAC equipment, plumbing fixtures and fittings and cabinets.
“Although the remodeling industry faces certain headwinds, favorable demographics and characteristics of the current housing stock will
On a regional basis compared to the previous month, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 27.6% lower in the Northeast, 10.4% lower in the Midwest, 23.3% lower in the South and 42.3% higher in the West.
Overall permits increased 0.1% to a 1.48 million unit annualized rate in January. Single-family permits were at a 996,000 annual unit rate, remaining unchanged compared to the previous month. Multifamily permits increased 0.2% to an annualized 487,000 pace.
Looking at regional permit data compared to the previous month, permits are 6.1% lower in the Northeast, 1.8% higher in the Midwest, 0.1% lower in the South and 2.3% higher in the West.
The number of single-family homes under construction in January is down 6.3% from a year ago, to 641,000 units. The number of multifamily units under construction is down 22.1% from a year ago, to 768,000 units.
There were 669,000 multifamily completions in January, up 11% from January 2024 n
boost remodeling activity in 2025,” said Lynch. “NAHB is forecasting residential remodeling activity to post a 5% gain in 2025, and a nominal gain of 3% in 2026,” said Lynch.
Attendees also heard from Alan Hanbury, Jr., CGR, CAPS, GMR, president of House of Hanbury Builders Inc., based in Newington, Conn., who presented on best practices for remodelers to grow and manage their businesses profitably.
For remodelers, a few best practices stand out in ensuring sustained success. “Many business owners overlook budgeting, yet establishing a clear financial strategy is crucial for controlled growth,” said Hanbury. “By tracking expenses and forecasting needs, business owners can maintain healthy financial practices and avoid unnecessary strain.”
Hanbury noted that focusing on the quality of work over discounting will also be a better driver of leads, growth and revenue for those in the remodeling industry.
Remodelers who consistently track the true billable hourly cost of employees will gain invaluable insights into their operation’ profits. “Without monitoring it, you’ll never understand the true cost of your workforce,” noted Hanbury. “It’s also very important to have financial targets, which allow you to benchmark against your competitors as well as your past efforts and know where your business stands in the marketplace.” n
Builders SHOW Exhibit Tent
The Builders Show exhibit tent will be located on the south side of the HBAMT building and measure 120 x 40 feet boasting space for forty-five (47) 10 x 5 feet exhibit spaces.
DON’T MISS OUT ON THIS TERRIFIC OPPORTUNITY!
Return your registration form to the HBAMT today to reserve your space or sponsorship! Exhibit spaces are limited to two per company.
Return your registration form to the HBAMT today! = 10’x5’
Tuesday, May 13th
2025 SPRING BUILDERS SHOW REGISTRATION FORM
Return form to: cnicley@hbamt.org
Tuesday, May 11
I am registering as an: r EXHIBITOR - $620 per booth r SPONSOR - $550
Secure your spot today by returning the registration form provided below to the HBAMT today!
EXHIBITORS are provided exhibit space inside the exhibit tent. SPONSORS enjoy all the benefits of an exhibitor, including access to the tent, without being provided exhibit space in the tent.
Your name: ______________________________________ Company: _______________________________________
Product/service exhibiting: _____________________________ Cell: __________________ Email: ____________________
EXHIBITORS: Top 3 booth location preferences (not guaranteed):
Number of booths you’re purchasing (no more than two):
_______ x $620 = your total payment*: $____________
r *Register me for the Builders Raffle held during the event. I will pay an additional $50 entry raffle entry fee
SPONSORS: will be charged $550.
Housing starts rise, though uncertainty persists
Single-family housing production should register a slight uptick in 2025 as builders contend with conflicting market conditions – policy moves expected to aid the business climate in the areas of regulatory reform and extension of the 2017 tax cuts coupled with tariff and immigration actions that could have an adverse impact on housing costs and supply.
And while economists speaking at the International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas today cited those economic factors, other developments such as stubbornly high shelter inflation that accounts for more than half of the increase in the overall Consumer Price Index, and tight lending conditions for construction and development loans, will continue to weigh heavily on the housing market in 2025.
“Home builders and remodelers are dealing with positive and negative risks in the months ahead,” said Rob Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). “With shelter inflation still rising at a 4.4% annual clip and a housing shortage of roughly 1.5 million units, the best way to bend the rising housing cost curve is for the Trump administration and Congress to enact policies that will allow builders to construct more attainable, affordable housing.”
NAHB’s 10-point housing plan addresses these issues, including the need to eliminate excessive regulations, promote careers in the skilled trades and fix building material supply chains, among other issues. With the Federal Reserve mulling future risks to both inflation and unemployment, NAHB forecasts that mortgage rates will unevenly trend toward 6% by the end of next year but the process won’t be smooth, with rates anticipated to move sideways or even lurch higher at times over the next year if the nation experiences larger fiscal deficits.
The Forecast
As positive (regulatory reform and tax cuts) and negative (tariffs and immigration) policy scenarios rise, single-family starts are set to inch up 0.2% this year to an annual rate of 1.01 million units and rise an additional 4% in 2026 to a 1.05 million pace.
On the multifamily front, construction should stabilize later this year as lower short-term interest rates improve the financing outlook for apartment development. NAHB is forecasting an 11% decline in multifamily output this year to a 317,000 annual pace with multifamily starts rising 6% next year to 336,000 units.
Meanwhile, with an aging housing stock and record levels of home equity, there are positive growth prospects for remodeling. NAHB anticipates residential remodeling will expand 5% in 2025 and an additional 3% in 2026.
The Value of Homeownership
In a sign of how much value Americans place on homeownership, a Zonda survey showed that 20% of respondents were willing to pay up to $500 more monthly for a mortgage than their current rent and more than 10% of those surveyed would pay up to $1,000 more for a mortgage than their present rent. Moreover, another 10%-plus of those surveyed said they would be willing to pay more than $1,000 above their current rent to own a home. However, current market conditions are locking such potential home buyers in place, including high
interest rates and greater opportunities for affordable deals at rental communities.
“This survey data really illustrates the strong desire Americans place on owning a home of their own,” said Zonda Chief Economist Ali Wolf. To hammer home this point, Wolf noted a government statistic that shows the net worth of home owner households is $396,200 vs. $10,400 for renters – a nearly 40-fold spread.
In a further sign of pent-up demand for homeownership, Wolf cited a Zonda survey that shows 31% of respondents expect to buy a home in the next three to five years, up from 17% in 2022 and 2023.
In terms of what to watch for in 2025, Wolf also noted tailwinds and headwinds facing the industry. Wolf stated that the administration’s focus on pro-growth policies and less regulation would be good for housing and the wider economy but tariffs and immigration disproportionately impact the housing sector in the form of higher construction and labor costs.
A More Balanced Market
In terms of supply and demand, the housing market is gradually shifting to a more neutral stance. With a buyer’s market defined as a greater than six-month supply of housing and seller’s market as less than a four-month supply, the market has slowly edged up from a 2.3-month supply in 2021 to a projected 4.1-month level this year.
“Inventory is recovering faster than sales, and this is leading to a more balanced market,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “Inventory growth is being fueled by newly listed homes, which were up 10.8% year over year in January 2025.
On the mortgage front, Hale noted that 83% of outstanding mortgages have a sub-6% rate and 55% are below 4%. By the end of 2025, she said 75% of outstanding mortgages are projected to be below 6%.
“The mortgage rate lock-in effect is gradually fading but affordability remains a challenge for home buyers,” said Hale.
And because of the mortgage lock-in effect, where buyers with low mortgage rates have been reluctant to put their homes on the market and take on prevailing rates averaging near 7%, new home sales have remained above trend. New home sales represented 14.5% of the market in 2024, the highest percentage since 2005. New home sales historically have averaged 10-12% of all home sales.
“New home sales are expected to outperform again in 2025 but competition will be growing from existing sellers,” said Hale. n
Parade of Homes
The 2025 Parade of Homes at Rosebrooke
ADVERTISE & EXHIBIT
THE PARADE PLAN BOOK
At every Parade event each attendee is handed a magazine as they walk through the front gate - the Parade Plan Book
The Plan Book is a tremendous opportunity to put your message into the hands of pre-qualified customers who refer to the book several months after the Parade of Homes is over!
Plan Book Advertising Rates
Half Page 7.5” x4.75” (Horizontal) $960
Full Page 7.5”x10” 8.75”x 11.25” (B1eed) $1,440
Email jargo@hbamt.org for ad specs and availability.
If your company depends on new homes or related products, furnishings or services, here’s one opportunity you can’t pass up -- the 2025 Parade of Homes at Rosebrooke! Secure your space in the Plan Book or reserve an Exhibit Booth today.
THE PARADE EXHIBIT BOOTH
Here’s your chance to demonstrate your product or service to the thousands of qualified prospects who pass through the Parade of Homes exhibit center when they enter and leave the show. As with Plan Book advertising, the exhibit center produces virtually all pre-qualified customers!
It’s like opening up shop and having thousands of prospects visit your show room the first two weeks you’re in business. What other medium could come close to producing those kinds of results? The Parade ranks first of all home shows in the nation and you can take advantage of the prestige this show enjoys.
Exhibit Booth Price? $750
Each booth in the Parade of Homes exhibit center measures 10’ x 6’ at the front entrance where patrons must enter and exit -- perfect for eye-popping kiosks and marketing publications!
2025 PARADE OF HOMES - PROMOTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES COMMITMENT FORM
Return completed form to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, TN 37027 | Email: jargo@hbamt org
PLAN BOOK AD - please check the size of ad you would like to secure in the 2025 Plan Book: r Half Page r Full Page r Page One r Inside Front r Inside Back r Back Cover
EXHIBIT BOOTH SPACE - please check here to secure your 2025 Exhibit Booth Space: r Your name: ____________________________________
SPIKE REPORT
Twenty-two SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of January 31, 2025.
Top 20 Big Spikes
Mitzi
MARCH CALENDAR
CHAPTERS & COUNCILS
CHAPTERS
CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Roy Miles
Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Mark Denney
Dickson County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat. RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Sam Gray
Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: Tuesday, March 4th, 11:30 a.m. at the Graymere Country Club. 2100 Country Club Ln - Columbia TN 38401
Topic: "2025 and the City of Columbia," with guest speaker Columbia City Mayor Chaz Molder. Join us for an insightful discussion featuring the Mayor of Columbia as he shares the city's vision for 2025. This meeting will cover key developments, upcoming projects, and the administration’s goals and priorities for the future.
FREE with RSVP thanks to Triple P Flooring! RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER
Chapter President - Lisa Underwood Metro/Nashville Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
Topic: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Robertson County Chapter details are currently being planned.
Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Joe Dalton
The Sumner County Chapter typically meets at the new Hendersonville Library. Future meetings to be announced.
Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Rachel Holloway
Williamson County Chapter details are being planned.
Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER
Chapter President - Margaret Tolbert
Next meeting: to be announced
Topic: to be announced
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
COUNCILS
HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL
The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets at varying locations throughout the year.
Next meeting: to be announced.
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL
Infill Builders Council details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.
MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Chuck Payne
The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month. Next meeting: Thursday, March 6th, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, TN 37027
Topic: "The Art of Collaboration: Builders & REALTORS
Working Together." Join the SMC March 6th at the HBAMT for a panel discussion with top Builders and REALTORS who will share their insights on the best practices to ensure shared success.
SMC Members Free w/RSVP thanks to DR Horton and Drees Homes!
Non-SMC members: $15 with RSVP; $20 w/o RSVP
RSVP REQUIRED DUE TO LIMITED SEATING
RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org
