Molly Botros - Student Research and Creativity Forum - Hofstra University

CHINA'S CHALLENGE TO AMERICAN HEGEMONY: AN ANALYSIS OF

CHINA'S ENCROACHMENT TO THE AMERICAN SPHERE OF INFLUENCE

MOLLY BOTROS

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

Abstract

In the decades following the Cold War, the United States has been the uncontested unipolar power, dominating military, diplomatic, and political spheres as scholars such as William C. Wohlforth and Charles Krauthammer argued. This dominance, contributing to American hegemony, has recently been challenged by the rapid ascent of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). China’s economic growth and strategic initiatives, particularly the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have significantly enhanced its global influence, including in regions traditionally under American hegemony such as Latin America. Findings suggest that China's engagement in Latin America is not merely an expansion of its economic frontiers, but a strategic component of its broader challenge to American hegemony. This evolving scenario presents a significant shift in the global balance of power, with potential long-term impacts on international stability and policy.

Introduction

The geopolitical landscape of the post-Cold War era has been predominantly characterized by the United States' unchallenged supremacy across military, diplomatic, and political domains. Scholars like William C. Wohlforth and Charles Krauthammer during the 1990s fervently argued that American unipolarity was both decisive and enduring. According to their assessments, the dissolution of the Soviet Union marked not only the end of bipolarity but also the consolidation of the US as the sole superpower capable of fulfilling all criteria of global dominance. This period marked an era in international relations where the US navigated global politics with no serious rivalry in the liberal international order.

However, the turn of the century brought with it significant shifts, most notably the rise of the PRC on the world stage following its admission to the WTO. China's remarkable economic trajectory has signaled a potential shift in global power dynamics. Specifically, the BRI, an ambitious infrastructure and economic project spanning Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America, represents China's resolve to translate economic might into geopolitical influence. This initiative not only enhances China's global presence but also positions it as a contender against American hegemony, especially in regions like Latin America which have historically been within the American sphere of influence.

Methodology

1. Literature Review:

• Review of academic journals, policy analyses, and historical texts on US and Chinese foreign policies, theories of international relations, and news developments on Latin American economic relations with the US and China

2. Data Collection:

• Quantitative data on trade volumes, foreign direct investment (FDI), and loans between China and Latin America and the US, and Latin American countries were collected from:

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF)

• The World Bank

• The Inter-American Dialogue

• The Green Finance & Development Center

PRC LOANS TO LAC (2023)

Results

• While LAC is arguably departing from the American sphere of influence, it has not quite entered China’s; the US foothold in LAC still commands tremendous economic and political power in the region, especially in countries like Mexico. In terms of trade volume between the US and LAC, trade quantity still dominates the trade figures between China and LAC, as highlighted in the graphs below. However, the significance here is the rate of percent growth that China has been able to bring forth in the region.

Conclusion

The growing power of China, poised to challenge the United States' hegemonic status, marks a critical juncture in global affairs, particularly visible in China's expanding influence in Latin America. This shift could signal broader changes in global governance and the potential displacement of the liberal international order long upheld by the US.

American Response

In response, the US has publicly acknowledged this rivalry and launched initiatives like "Build Back Better World" to reinforce its global leadership by promoting a liberal economic and political order, directly countering China's influence.

Implications of Chinese Presence in Latin America China’s influence in Latin America necessitates a reassessment of America’s regional strategies to compete with or effectively accommodate Chinese initiatives.

Global Implications of Chinese Growth

The sustainability of China's growth and its implications for global governance remain uncertain. Internationally, the desirability of a China -centric world order is questioned, particularly due to its economic model and due to humanitarian concerns. Scholarly perspectives, such as those from Ikenberry and Gilpin, suggest that while direct hegemonic war is unlikely due to nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence, geopolitical tensions may still lead to significant conflicts within spheres of influence, akin to a Cold War-style standoff.

3. Analytical Framework:

• Application of Robert Gilpin’s theory of hegemonic conflict to analyze the implications of the economic and military capabilities of the US and China in Latin America.

And so, the U.S. must adapt and possibly strengthen the liberal international order to remain a viable alternative to China’s emerging frameworks, ensuring it continues to shape global governance effectively. Recommendations