RUSSI A A N D UKRAINE RUSSI A A N D UKRAINE
Deterrence: An Art of War Deterrence is not just the ability to fight; it’s the will to fight. By announcing that the United States possessed no such will for Ukraine, the White House told Putin all he needed to know: he would not be deterred.
By Nadia Schadlow
A
credible deterrent is designed to alter a potential aggressor’s calculations of risk and reward. Vladimir Putin determined that the potential cost of invading Ukraine was relatively low, and on February 24 he attacked. It will be the job of historians
to try to understand why deterrence failed. Deterrence involves two factors: capability and will. Capability means having the military strength to deliver intolerable damage to an adversary. Will is the determination to use that strength and deliver that damage. The United States spends hundreds of billions of dollars a year to strengthen its military capabilities, and they are formidable. Resolve costs nothing, but it is priceless when it comes to deterring aggression. By signaling that the United States had no intention of using its capabilities, the Biden administration seriously weakened their deterrent value.
Nadia Schadlow is a national security visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. She is a former deputy national security adviser for strategy. 46
H O O VER DI GEST • Summer 2022
