Hpn mag june 2014 by Horse Player NOW

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CONTENTS JUNE 2014 4

From The Publisher

6 Questions for Caton

Bredar takes your Qs each issue! Belmont Stakes in the spotlight.

9 Back to Night School â&#x20AC;&#x201C;

Stakes/Belmont Handicapping

Top players from the best of Night School help your Derby decisions.

14 The Teaser

Topics that titillate the racing mind.

18 Good Vs. Great

Nadeau analyzes the Triple Crown debate & why many failed.

29 Tripping Out

Shottenkirk looks at what has been successful in the Belmont Stakes.

34 Countdown to the Crown

Plonk analyzes all Belmont hopes and delivers his final picks in the Season 9 finale scouting report.

44 BRIS Handicapping Hints

DeRosa dissects Belmont Park stats.

48 Harness Handicapping

Warkentin features the legendary driver Cat Manzi's career.

50 North America Cup Preview

Get insight on our Night School Tour Mohawk stop coming June 14.

52 AQHA Handicapping

Hancock asks the pedigree question, "Who's Your Daddy?"

56 Winning Angles

Spencer commentary shines light on Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream Park.

60 Playing on Paper

See our marked PPs andattack for non-winners of 2 claiming races.

64 Stakes Schedule/Key Dates 69 Galloping Out

Chrome's "good hands" people.

From the Publisher Life, not just sports, can be a game of inches. So while a loss by Real Quiet in the ’98 Belmont by a finger-squeeze may have hurt for a while, reality usually brings us back to work on Monday, bills on the 31st and the next situation begging us to be “this close” to our goal. Yes, the Triple Crown has sat vacant since 1978. We will watch with bated breath as California Chrome tries his hand at solving racing’s Rubik’s Cube. After 2 ½ minutes, we will have our answer. The joy will be grand in victory; the disappointment strong in defeat. Either way, we’ll all look back one day and say we were inches away from it all – either literally by our presence watching or figuratively by how close we once again came. Soon enough it will be Monday, not to mention the 31st, and life will return to normalcy with or without a Triple Crown winner. But even if it’s not that important in the grand scheme of things, wouldn’t it sure be cool? Enjoy the ride! - JP

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk Contributing Writers Caton Bredar Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau Brian W. Spencer Jennifer Hancock Ken Warkentin Ed DeRosa Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz) Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese / NYRA Michael Lisa / Meadowlands Michael Burns / Woodbine Tom Baker / Horse Player NOW Jim McCue / Maryland Jockey Club Jerry Dzierwinski / MD Jockey Club Ken Weingartner / USTA

Each issue, we’ll take your questions for Caton Bredar, Horse Player NOW analyst, Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV. WHY DO YOU THINK IT’S BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER? Relative to the history of the event, it really hasn't been THAT long between Triple Crown winners; true, 36 years is the longest dry spell, but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox, the first and second TC winners, and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in '73. I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true, mile and one-half type horses. That may be a part of the problem. Finally, when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998, the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially. The average field

size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 5.4 runners; since 1998, the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11, making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal. WHAT’S THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING THE BELMONT STAKES? I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both, AND you need to have a horse who's blossoming at the right time.

Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!

Last year, Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont. He was focused, he was training exceptionally well, he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldn't be a problem. You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario, but at the end of the day, regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont, the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner. DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT? While the field size and the fact that, for the first time, he's had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors, I believe

California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful we've seen since Silver Charm was denied in 1997 by Touch Gold. He's beaten nearly everyone he'll be facing, he's versatile, he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldn't be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip he's gotten in the previous two races. I've been wrong before, but, hey, it's more fun to dream!

Follow me @CBredar.

Pose your questions each week in Night School â&#x20AC;&#x201C; or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!

This month’s topic of review:

STAKES HANDICAPPING Since 2011, Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races. Through live chats, videos and radio simulcasts, the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers. In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine, we go “Back to Night School” with a look at some of the high points of past lessons.

“Stakes Handicapping” will be at the fore for summer horseplayers, starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7. These highdollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek, chiefly because of the increased competition, an often shorter field size and the like. All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read, listen and view. In this “Back to Night School” edition, we’ll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races.

2012 Video: Stakes Handicapping Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video: Stakes Handicapping with Hank Goldberg, Bob Neumeier & Jay Privman - link

2013 Video: Stakes Handicapping “Nadeau’s Minutes” with Brian Nadeau - link

2013 Video: Stakes Handicapping with Jeremy Plonk, Brian W. Spencer & Brian Nadeau - link

Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for “Handicapping Stakes Races,” from August 20, 2013. The session featured Night School instructors Caton Bredar, Jeremy Plonk & Joe Kristufek. A sample: Host - Jeremy Plonk: I don't see very many "giveaway" stakes races from trainers. Unless it's a Breeders' Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February, I'm pretty much in the camp that they are here to win. Host - Caton Bredar: ...which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more "ordinary" races. Most of the time, you know where the horse is spending his time training, how long he's been at the track, etc. With stakes horses, you often know their every move…

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL! TUESDAYS, 8:30 PM ET JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING – NEWBIE FOCUS

Live chat with top handicappers as we analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and supporting races.

12-week Summer Semester begins as we take a newbie approach to real-time action from Mountaineer Park. JUNE 17 LIVE RACING – MONEY MANAGEMENT Watch a live card as our team shows how they balance a budget.

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING – CLASS/CONDITIONS

LOOK AHEAD: JULY 1 LIVE RACING –

PACE HANDICAPPING

The night’s action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class & race types.

We take aim at race shape and pace analysis in real-time to open July.

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THE TEASER:

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether to lady legends, a mare is ready to receive a stallion. Also, perhaps the eventually it will most unfulfilling occupation in the universe. all make sense. Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes, but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National, the world‟s greatest steeplechase. The incident begged the age-old question, “If racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it, does it make a sound?” In an incredible mutiny, just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789, 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start. The jockeys, led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the role of Fletcher Christian (pictured), were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process. Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their defense of being accused of knocking over assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start. Brendan Powell, the only rider not involved, was spared

because his mount refused to approach the tape. When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans, they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry. The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation. In the end, Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point. The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a „guilty‟ verdict. Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry? Hands On, Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide, Australia. The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race, but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life. Out of the gate, McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall. Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance. While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades, track stewards weren‟t as impressed. As reported in The Daily Telegraph, chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood. “That‟s our job, Libby wasn‟t fined, reprimanded, or cautioned. She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race,‟‟ Petzer said. “If we don‟t do that, next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was, and (a jockey) might think, „I‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge,‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance. “We weren‟t critical of Libby. I can understand why people might think, „It‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules),‟ but our job is not an easy one, and we have to tell people what the rules say.‟‟ McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue. “I believe I was past the point of no return, and I would have come off the horse. I‟m eternally grateful to Libby,‟‟ McKechnie said.

There have been several highprofile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities. Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck. In 1996, Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield, only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse. Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from, but maintained she had zero regrets, “If it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time, I‟d choose helping a jockey.” All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an „old school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots. He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all right…in the wrong direction!

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewards…did you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day? Hear about it? Heck, you may have even lost money wagering on it. The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research. It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation. Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus. Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount, Graced. That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it. The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck. After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed, saying "Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire. It's been a while since I hit the wire first."

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canada's leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers. The Stronach Group owns Pimlico. This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind. Even though the race was a charity event, there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and, therefore, Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue. However, it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife. A suspension probably makes the most sense. Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore, it won‟t matter much to her and, more importantly, to her husband, either. It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company. Bill Shoemaker, one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys, once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby! The miscue cost his mount, Gallant Man, the race.

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico, and Bill Shoemaker in the history books afterward. To make matters worse, as the story goes, a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder. Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker, Clark-Rogers eventually has a „Ferdinand moment.‟ She loves horses and the sport, works tirelessly for various racingrelated charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner “Saratoga War Horse,” which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans.

- HPN

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GOOD VS. GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE By Brian Nadeau It’s not easy, this thing they call the Triple Crown. I’ve been involved in racing for the better part of 20 years, and in that time, I’ve witnessed a somewhat astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span – seven who made it to the gate, and one who did not (I’ll Have Another). I’d like to think I have a strong feel for the past eight, having been at Belmont Park to witness them all.

There are myriad reasons as to why these horses didn’t claim racing’s most elusive prize, but is there a relationship between the failed eight-pack and how that might play into California Chrome’s quest for racing immortality June 7 at Belmont?

1997 Silver Charm The Bob Baffert-trained gray was as game as they come, winning a pair of street fights in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and arrived at Belmont as the best horse in a group that included his arch rival Free House, who was 3rd in the Derby and 2nd in the Preakness, and Touch Gold, a hard-luck 4th in the Preakness. So why didn’t Silver Charm win the Triple Crown? Sometimes good horses just get outrun by good horses. That was the case with Silver Charm. Touch Gold announced his presence in the Preakness, when he ran out of his mind to be 4th after a ton of trouble and followed through in the Belmont. He also got one of the best rides you’ll ever see from Chris McCarron, who had him on

the lead early, then backed off, tipped out on the far turn, and then swung him out wide in deep stretch where Silver Charm couldn’t see him. Silver Charm just lost to a better horse on the day and a masterful ride. It happens daily in racing, but, unfortunately for him, it happened on the wrong day.

1998 Real Quiet Real Quiet, a year later, had Baffert right back in the spotlight. ―The Fish,‖ as he was known for his slender physique, had his own arch rival in Victory Gallop, whose sustained stretch runs fell short when 2nd in both the Derby and Preakness. Real Quiet was the blueprint of a Derby winner, a tactical stalker who had the ability to blow a race open off the far turn. That’s exactly what Kent Desormeaux tried to in the Belmont, when he assumed command entering the stretch and opened up a seemingly insurmountable 4-length lead. But this time it was Gary Stevens, who had lost the Triple Crown in the shadow of the wire with Silver Charm, taking dead aim with

Victory Gallop. The pair hit the line together; the photo was too close to call. Needless to say, Real Quiet’s nose wasn’t the first down. Many have opined Desormeaux moved too early, and there’s possibly something to it, but Real Quiet’s style was to do just that. So it’s not like he took him out of his element. And when you know you have a dead, one-run closer to beat, building a big lead isn’t the worst idea in the world. Victory Gallop simply ran out of room in Louisville and Baltimore, but the Belmont was a race he was built for. While deep closers don’t often win the ―Test of the Champion,‖ Victory Gallop was best-suited for the big, sweeping turns of Big Sandy and he ran accordingly. Kill Desormeaux if you want (jockey error will rear its head shortly), but like Silver Charm, Real Quiet simply got run down by a better horse on the day, and quite possibly a better horse in general. And it’s worth noting, as a bit of an aside, as good as Silver Charm and Real Quiet were, they were hardly great horses. Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this country not named the Kentucky Derby or Preakness, and counted the Dubai World Cup as his only other win in racing’s elite company? As for Real Quiet, he ran midway through his 4-year-old season and retired with a 6-for-20 record. He won three other races aside from a MSW, the Derby and the Preakness. As I’ll lament over the next several paragraphs, good horses don’t win the Triple Crown, great horses do.

1999 Charismatic In ’97-’98, we saw good horses being beaten by better horses or better performances; but for Charismatic in 1999, it was something a bit different. Unlike the two Baffert runners, who entered the Belmont each with five starts on the year, this D. Wayne Lukas trainee had met the starter a somewhat remarkable nine times. Charismatic also had won the G2 Lexington two weeks before the Derby, meaning the Belmont was his fourth start in seven weeks. Quite frankly, it was asking a lot for a horse that was

once entered for a $62,500 claiming tag earlier in the year. Sadly, Charismatic broke down in deep stretch after relinquishing the lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would never race again. Injuries and the rigors of the Triple Crown reared their ugly head here. Lukas had no idea what he had in early February, as he often likes to say when retelling the Charismatic story, so you can’t fault him for the path he took. And after winning the Lexington—and running very fast when doing so—the Derby was a no-brainer. And when you win the Derby, you go on to the Preakness; and so on. And Charismatic, much like Silver Charm and Real Quiet, was run down by a horse who would go on to do great things. Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1 Travers later in the summer and be a real monster at age 4 when earning an Eclipse Award.

2002 War Emblem War Emblem had Baffert yet again knocking on the door of racing’s staunchest and most exclusive club. His case was precarious, as he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby, when he walked on the lead and led a merry-go-round finish over Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift. He showed more mettle in the Preakness, but was all out to beat the rank outsider Magic Weisner, the local hope at 45-1. The fact that War Emblem was a somewhat icy 1.25-1 in a modest, 11-horse Belmont field gave sense of the public’s trepidation. As it happened, War Emblem blew the break, became rank and never really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th and well behind improbable 70-1 winner Sarava. While it’s easy to dismiss the no-show because of the brutal start, the likelihood is War Emblem just wasn’t good enough. He took advantage of remarkable fortune in the Derby pace and Preakness competition.

2003 Funny Cide The New York-bred gelding Funny Cide, no doubt, rates one of the better Triple Crown feel-good stories in recent memory. He upset the Derby and then completely blitzed his opposition in the Preakness by 9 ¾ lengths. But

while everything went right in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, little went right in the third. First off, no one would argue that Empire Maker, the Juddmonte blueblood, was the most talented 3-year-old in the country that year, especially since he beat Funny Cide when winning the G1 Wood Memorial. Unfortunately, he battled foot issues leading up to the Derby, still mustering a laterunning 2nd. But Empire Maker bypassed the Preakness, got healthy and entered the Belmont on top of his game. Second, heavy rains descended on Long Island and the Belmont was run over a real mess of a track. Funny Cide broke running, was a bit rank on the lead and was done when the real running began, while Empire Maker was in high gear and won with something to spare over a game Ten Most Wanted, who would go on to win the Travers. The case of Funny Cide is a tricky one, because he warmed so many hearts and became a national sensation along the way, with his grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona. And, as often is the case under circumstances like his, people want to make a horse into something they were not. Funny Cide was a very good horse, but not a Hall of Famer. He happened to be great for two weeks that encompassed the Derby and the Preakness, and, well, a solid graded stakes campaigner the rest of his career. He annexed the G3 Excelsior and G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4year-old, but thereafter won only the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine. Funny Cide also was sired by Distorted Humor, so winning the 1 Âź-mile Derby was surprise enough; getting 1 Â˝ miles in the Belmont seemed virtually impossible. At the end of the day, Funny Cide was a much inferior horse to Empire Maker; and you could argue he was a coin-flip against Ten Most Wanted.

2004 Smarty Jones Just one year later, another feelgood story developed when Smarty Jones blitzed through the Triple Crown season and entered the Belmont undefeated in eight

lifetime starts. The son of Elusive Quality was a bit like Funny Cide, in that he had a sprinter/miler pedigree. Smarty Jones had faced one of the most latedeveloping Triple Crown groups in recent memory. Names like Borrego, Purge, Eddington and Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish their G1 form theyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d show later. He entered the Belmont as a legitimate odds-on favorite off a similarly scary 11 Â˝-length win in the Preakness. Even the biggest cynic on the backstretch would have trouble beating Smarty Jones in the Belmont, which is one of the reasons why he went off a warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse field. And much like Funny Cide a year earlier, not a lot went right for Smarty Jones in the Belmont, albeit for somewhat different reasons.

First off, he was pressed, quite surprisingly, by Eddington, who was a stalker/closer, down the backstretch while the latter was 4wide. Smarty Jones easily repelled Eddington, but Rock Hard Ten then went up to put pressure on his inside. He swatted him away, too, entering the far turn, but then Stewart Elliott decided it was time to go, asking Smarty Jones, who opened up a daylight lead on the field off the turn. By now we all know the story, as Birdstone (pictured above) closed late and denied yet another Triple Crown that seemed a foregone conclusion.

So exactly what happened? Several things, actually. The early pressure Smarty Jones faced certainly didn’t help, not to mention he was by Elusive Quality out of the Smile mare I’ll Get Along, meaning he already was stretching his genetic rubber band beyond thin. But lastly, the inexperience of Elliott over the wide, expansive Belmont main track has to be a big, deciding factor. It’s often said that the Belmont is a weird race because horses will never again be asked to go 1 ½ miles on the main track. And while that’s right, it’s also correct to say jockeys won’t be asked to do it either. Especially a journeyman like Elliott, who made his name far away from Elmont, New York. He simply moved too early when Smarty Jones opened up off the turn. Would a more patient ride have secured the Triple Crown? It’s impossible to say, but there’s little doubt nerves and the magnitude of the moment caught up with Elliott, who failed to save anything for deep stretch and was run down by Birdstone at 36-1.

Big Brown 2008 Big Brown brought the circus that was, and is, Rick Dutrow Jr. to the limelight. Big Brown and Smarty Jones had a lot of similarities; both were undefeated entering the Belmont, both dominated the first two legs of the Triple Crown and both had taken advantage of, what appeared at the time, a weak group of 3-year-olds. Big Brown defeated the ill-fated filly Eight Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork in the Derby, then walloped Macho Again and the New York-bred Icabad Crane in the Preakness. The fact that Denis Of Cork was second-choice in the Belmont at 71, with no one else under 14-1, said as much about the lack of

talent in the field as it did about Big Brown’s daunting shadow. What happened to Big Brown in the Belmont is still up for debate today, but basically he didn’t get away to a great beginning, was rank and steadied a few times while chasing the pace of eventual winner Da’Tara, swung out wide, went wider entering the far turn and then was, shockingly, pulled up nearing the quarter pole. ―Odd‖ doesn’t begin to describe what happened to Big Brown during his Belmont run. What is clear is that Big Brown, for whatever reason, didn’t have his mind on running in the Belmont. Chalk it up to ―one of those days,‖ if you want. His patch-work foot issues possibly were part of the storyline, too. For me personally, the staunchest advocate of the ―good horses don’t win the Triple Crown, great ones do,‖ thinking, there’s a small part that thinks this was a case of the Racing Gods looking out for what was best for the club and the sport.

Did Dutrow, and his laundry list of suspensions and violations, belong in the most hallowed club in all of sports? Maybe I’m reaching for something that’s not there, but a part of me believes it.

Fitting the Crown The reasons, or lack thereof, for defeat are wide spread: bad racing luck, poor judgment, shaky pedigrees, rough trips, injuries and the unknown of an off-track all potentially get in the way. We’ve also seen better horses flexing their muscles on the big day and vanquishing those who might simply have been second-best. Is there a correlation between all the failures and California Chrome’s quest? It’s tough to say, but I just keep coming back to what I’ve said all along; ―Good horses don’t win the Triple Crown, great ones do.‖

The last four Triple Crown winners were Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed; nothing short of legends of the American turf. A look back at the eight-pack outlined in this article, and, for countless different reasons, it’s pretty obvious none of them were remotely close to the last four Triple Crown champs. As for California Chrome, what we do know is that he’s by an unknown sire in Lucky Pulpit, and out of the Not For Love mare Love The Chase – hardly great bloodlines, but at least there’s some distance in there. You can’t knock his jockey, Victor Espinoza, as he’s been one of the best in the business for years and was the pilot of War Emblem. So he’s been down this road before. The competition? Well it seems marginal, and there’s little doubt California Chrome is a deserving

favorite, though not to the degree of Smarty Jones and Big Brown. Horses like Wicked Strong and Tonalist have talent and pedigree, and Ride On Curlin wasn’t too far behind in the Preakness. If I have a knock, it would be his schedule, as the Belmont will be his 13th start and he hasn’t had a break since his career debut April 26, 2013. He now runs for the third time in five weeks, while facing several Derby horses that passed the Preakness. So is California Chrome that great horse that will knock down the door and end 36 years of misery? I’m just not too sure. I’ve been fooled before while witnessing firsthand the near misses listed above, making the drive to Belmont quite certain I would see history, only to turn around and head home with – HPN mixed emotions.

Going wide, like Rags to Riches in 2007 (above), has been a fair trade-off in Belmont trips. - By Jerry Shottenkirk

thing over and over again, it’s not an accident. It’s the way he runs.

Thoroughbreds just aren’t suited for a mile and one-half.

Does California Chrome have another PT in him? Only time will tell. He does have the preferred running style.

That’s why the Belmont Stakes consistently draws the fewest entrants of the Triple Crown races. It’s a grueling proposition, and it comes back to a search for the perfect trip.

Over the past 20 Belmonts, speed rarely has won. At the same time, few horses have closed in the stretch. The way to win the final jewel is to win it on that great expanse known as the far turn.

California Chrome's trips have been SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness that some observers and handicappers hold it against him. I’m in the camp that says if a horse continues to do the same

Back in 2005, when Jeremy Rose asked Afleet Alex to go, he quickly picked off opponents one at a time, weaving as he went, and opened a long lead in the stretch. He made up considerable ground, got

through the traffic and forwarded one of the best performances in recent Belmont Stakes history. But the fact remains that he was in front turning for home. Much depends on your particular definition of a closer. If, in your mind, a closer is eighth, 15 out of it turning for home, it’s probably not going to happen. In most cases, the Belmont is won prior to the stretch run. Afleet Alex was ninth going into the far turn, but was in front coming out of it. There always are exceptions. Belmont talk begins with Secretariat, and horses like Risen Star, Bet Twice and Easy Goer were dominant. However, we are in a different era, with different results. A personal study of the past 20 years of the Belmont Stakes has revealed these patterns:  You don’t want to lead at the start, or shortly thereafter the break. Only Da’ Tara in 2008 led from basically flagfall to finish. He led by three lengths early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths ahead. He is the exception.  Deep closers have about as much success as frontrunners. Rip-roaring, closing bids from 20 lengths out of it just don’t happen in the Belmont, mainly due to the slower pace and the distance. Jazil was far back in 2006, dropping a dozen lengths back at one point. But he did his running on the far turn, was in front in the stretch and rode the momentum to a 1 1/4-length win.  No winning horse in the past 20 years has been worse than fourth upon entering the stretch. It was Summer Bird in 2009 that was fourth at the furlong grounds, and he rallied for a 2 3/4-length win.  The most dominant performance during this period came from Point Given in a 12 1/4-length romp in 2001. Never more than two lengths behind early, Point

Given took Gary Stevens’ cue when called upon and grabbed the lead with a halfmile to go. He wasn’t in the neighborhood of “tremendous machine,” but he was in a race by himself in the stretch.  Going around seems to work. Union Rags won the 2012 edition with an inside run to nip Paynter, but the vast majority of winning moves have come from the outside, sometimes with awful trips. It has been proven in the Belmont that risking a loss of ground is better than risking momentum. After a mile or so, horses just can’t slow down and then restart a rally with any kind of effectiveness.

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be watching Victor Espinoza map out California Chrome’s quest for racing immortality. Judging by the performances in his last four races, California Chrome has the preferred running style to win the Belmont Stakes. Whether his inner-pedigree reaches up and grabs him by the throat latch in stretch, that’s anyone’s guess. Pedigrees can make great horses, but great horses can also make pedigrees. The view of Chrome’s sire Lucky Pulpit could soar in a matter of 2.5 minutes. Handicappers want to be right, and the percentages say there’s a better chance for California Chrome’s failure than success. The proof is in the numbers. No Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. The safe pick is to go against. However, safe picks go against our inner handicapper.

Espinoza will have the option to be anywhere he wants. California Chrome has the tactical speed to adjust. He could probably send and be well in front during the early going, but the percentages indicate heâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d be better off in a tracking position. Why mess up a good thing? That has been the modus operandi in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and any of several horses could fall in and take on the pacesetting chores. Thanks to Tonalist, Samraat or possibly Commissioner, California Chrome has the opportunity to get the trip Espinoza wants. Will California Chrome get the Point Given trip with an effortless acceleration to scintillating victory? The guess here is no. Looking at his running style, Chrome has the opportunity for an Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st, held on in 2003), Commendable (2nd to 1st, winning by 1 1/2 lengths in 2000), Thunder Gulch (4th to 1st, winning by 2 in 1995) or Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st, winning by 2 in 1994).

No Excuses for the Right One Perhaps no Belmont winner had more roadblocks than the filly Rags to Riches in 2007. Some say being a filly was the obvious strike against her. And it got worse once they rang the bell. She stumbled out of the gate and went wide into the first turn and was in the five-path through much of her run. She engaged the leader, the mighty Curlin, at the quarter pole and was head and head with him the rest of the way and won by that margin. Despite the bad journey, she looked him in the eye and beat him. â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Jerry Shottenkirk

Three of the four listed there were trained by D. Wayne Lukas. Chrome is trained by Art Sherman, but look for a Lukas trip and a trek to that place that is just a few rungs higher than most. - HPN

Week 23, June 6, 2014 By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note: The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-yearold scene. Countdowntothecrown.com is the home each Friday from Jan. 3 through the Belmont Stakes, and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes. This week’s fearless forecast More than 100,000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history. The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor, with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston. In the pantheon of New York sports, it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim, “fuhgeddaboutit!” But we racing diehards dig deeper. The challenge for us remains not to coronate, but rather to canvass our options, and let no jewel unturned.

We‟ll go horse-by-horse, as is our Triple Crown race-week custom, to give you a direct take on each of the 11 official Belmont entrants. Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario SPEED: Samraat PRESS: California Chrome General a Rod Tonalist MIDPACK: Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER: Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin Matuszak Commanding Curve

Not On My Tickets MATUSZAK (pictured): There‟s not a proverbial “quitter” in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop, and then assume the caboose through the wire. So while Matuszak‟s running style and distancespecialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last, he‟s still my first toss-out in the field. Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta. He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him, and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear. He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations. Mike Smith will guide him wide, try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared. That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could.

MATTERHORN: The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter, opening 250-1 & dropping to 75-1 before returning to action at age 3. But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree. It may have come from the Coolmore/Tabor crew, and even if so, they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse Thoroughbreds. While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year, a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher. The Eclipse/TAP/Joe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza, but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain, his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying, “I had that one.”

SAMRAAT: The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch, but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail. It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early; jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires – he‟s the quickest horse in the field who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion). But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to “It‟s the End of the World as We Know It” from REM. It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882, but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar. He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial, and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade: Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since Empire Maker-Funny Cide Year Horse Wood Bel „13 Vyjack 3rd 8th „13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rd/dh ’06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th TONALIST: If not for one very key reason, this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes. A romping Peter Pan win over an „off‟ track cannot be trusted at face value, yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds. But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and onehalf, and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip. Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial, and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) – reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes. Nonetheless, these are hiccups, and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08. Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye, mind you; and he has my total respect. He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the “Test of the Champion.” But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory. Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plusses/minuses of nearly every horse in the field. The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb. 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs. Constitution and Wicked Strong. But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago. I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets, but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk.

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN: My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness, I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career. He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop, only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring. So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics, to relegate him once again to a nonexotics contender would be risky business. And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount, I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing “Old Time Rock n‟ Roll.” Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers; he‟s earned the perch. Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-„round vs. the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn.

COMMISSIONER: Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class. A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth, there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company. He‟s been even, and disappointing, to this eye with such high expectations. But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree – sire A.P. Indy, grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold. He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes, negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either. When you get the nation‟s leading jockey, Javier Castellano, aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late, you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price. Pletcher’s Belmont Highlights Year Horse Odds Finish „13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st „11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE: While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results, the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold. One, does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids? Two, does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors? Derby 2nd, Awaiting Belmont Year Horse Odds Finish „13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th „10 Ice Box 9-5* 8th The bottom line: Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts. Many deep closers, dependent on pace and traffic, can‟t rattle off such consistent placings. Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career, while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12. Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts. I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables. Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots. Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance, and one that can put him squarely in the mix late.

GENERAL A ROD: No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness, and while such measures do little for some handicappers, a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use. Two items I use to gauge a stretchout in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree. And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas. While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire, don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011. And, damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look. His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 8.4 furlongs, best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist, 8.2). General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont; now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals. Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount, and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace. He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore, and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix. It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California Chrome are not intent on the spot. With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going, don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway on the turn. He was 30-1 in the Derby, 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise.

Win Contenders: To lend perspective, in our Derby edition of Countdown, only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 – California Chrome and Candy Boy, the best of the west. For the Preakness, when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome, Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race.

But the Belmont can be a different beast, and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason. While the New York series finale runs through California, figuratively, 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged. WICKED STRONG: Often, folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished. As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1, there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville. But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot, and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont. If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes, and I do, it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything. In fact, he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them. That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact. The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go. He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer, and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day. He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker, who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide. A freshened Wicked Strong, who has been working well (click video below to play), should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone.

MEDAL COUNT: The more I watch the Derby replay, the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference. Again it comes down to your starting point for many horseplayers. Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player. Great debates to have, and in some cases, you don‟t have to…thanks to the world of exotics wagering. So now the question becomes: Can he

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont? Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby. His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland, and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 271/2 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval. Trainer Dale Romans, champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago, did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness. He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day, and then put him to the morning test a week later. Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in :59-2/5 breezing, a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April. Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races, and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time. If he had finished third in the Derby, you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont. Now, you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May. Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected.

CALIFORNIA CHROME: Nothing in horse racing rates as fact. But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process. In other words: He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses. California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt, a complete sweep, in our weekly Countdown evaluations. Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers, but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness. If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal, note that quartet has been swept only twice in history…by Affirmed and Sunday Silence. If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel, the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history. At some point, fatigue will catch up with California Chrome; it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever. He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break. But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

surface will be any concern, much less that his needle is straddling „E.‟ Look for Victor Espinoza, the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown, to employ the utmost patience. Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza. Even if Chrome goes straight to the front – which is conceivable – expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo. It‟s simply „what he do,‟ as the kids say these days. The misstated “long” Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome. In reality, it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire. This race will be won or lost on the turns, and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate. In the US, horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways. In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead – if they are swapping leads correctly – than the Belmont Stakes. Two turns, around the massive sweeps, provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention. Which horse, California

Chrome or otherwise, can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead? Looking at a track diagram of Belmont, the horses will run about 6 furlongs – about half the race – on the turns. Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight, and utilization of the right lead. This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn – not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals. And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint. It‟s the great unknown with all involved, regardless of price. And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated. Jeremy Plonk’s 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN: MEDAL COUNT PLACE: CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW: WICKED STRONG

For Jeremy’s wagering strategies see Saturday’s HP NOW BUZZ!

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When it comes to talking great racing in New York, Belmont Park is generally overshadowed by its Upstate cousin in the New York Racing Association family, Saratoga Race Course, but it is absolutely some of the best day-in-dayout racing the country has to offer with none better than the Belmont Stakes card on June 7. We’ll discuss some of that daily racing later, but with nearly $3million in guaranteed multi-race wagering pools and more than $100-million in handle expected on the day, we want to make sure you’re ready, and ALLWAYS software from Brisnet.com can help. 

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa Because the racing is so great at Belmont throughout the year, we have a good sample size of quality races to dissect. Looking at allowance and stakes races only from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up, we have 94 dirt sprints, 74 dirt routes, 41 turf sprints, and 57 turf routes in our database. Looking at all 266 of these higher-class races doesn’t yield many surprises. Brisnet.com’s top Prime Power figure has an Impact Value of 2.22 and outperforms the takeout with an ROI of just -7.5%. Breaking the races out by distance and surface helps more, though.

In dirt sprints at these levels (we define sprint as any distance up to—but not including—1 mile), the top last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating is a huge factor with an Impact Value of 2.36 and an ROI of +13%. Prime Power is especially effective with these variables as well with the top figure netting a 2.73 Impact Value and a +29% ROI!

ROI is -36%. However, looking at the best recent performance ON TURF has an impact value of 1.70 and ROI of +4%. Turf routes are similar with the best last-out Speed Rating having an Impact Value of 1.39 and straight bet ROI of -48%. Zeroing in on recent turf success, though, has an Impact Value of 1.64 and a +2% ROI.

Dirt routes are This seems to This seems to trickier, as the support somewhat support somebest last-out the cliché that Speed Rating what the cliché speed figures does OK from a that speed figures matter less on turf. predictive I wouldn’t go so far standpoint with a matter less on as to say they don’t 1.70 Impact matter, but they’re turf. Value, but the clearly overvalued. ROI is -39%. Look for strong turf However, form when playing turf races at expanding your handicapping to Belmont. the horse with the two best Speed Looking at the last 13 fast-track Ratings from its last three starts Belmont Stakes, specifically, it’s ups the Impact Value slightly to easy to see the role pace plays in 1.72 and nets a +5% ROI. the race because the most Turf sprints rely less on speed and powerful indicators of success are more on surface performance. The the E1 Pace Rating and the best last-out Speed Rating has an relationship between a horse’s OK Impact Value of 1.53, but the typical E1 pace rating and its final-

fraction rating (this is a calculation the ALL-WAYS software performs and is not available in standard Past Performances).

meeting with less turf (whereas the allowance, and especially stakes types, typically are more proven over turf).

I.e. one strong move isn’t usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes, but rather a sustained run from the gate carried all 12 furlongs is …one preferred. When playing Belmont generally, last-out speed is still very much king in dirt sprints and less so in routes, but still strong.

All these good horses start somewhere, and Belmont has its share of loaded maiden races— even if that aforementioned strong cousin Upstate gets move isn’t most of the usually good attention with its two-year-old racing. enough to win

the Belmont Stakes, but rather a sustained run…

The turf races don’t favor turf form as much overall, but this makes sense – because among all races you’re more likely to get horses trying turf for the first time or coming from an Aqueduct

In looking at maiden races with first-time starters in them, the horsemen associated with starters is a bigger angle in these types of races than any other. I.e., jockey and trainer matter more in maiden races at Belmont than any other class—and even more so on – HPN turf.

Cat Manzi

Cool Name – Hall of Fame Career By Ken Warkentin If you were to build the ultimate catch driver, you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands, along with tremendous horse sense, a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic. Don’t forget steely determination, resiliency and professionalism. Oh, and give him a cool name, the coolest ever, call him Cat Manzi. Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man, Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racing’s top catch drivers, piling up drives, wins, money, accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hardworking athlete, a gentleman and a family man. Cat is the man you can still count on – on and off the track.

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career, and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sport’s dash title with 727 wins. Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost 15,000 wins, he’s the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million, among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands, and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races – 91,345. Manzi’s best money season was $8.65 million in 2005, and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700,000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect, second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1:50.1. With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

a new horse, Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1:48.2. Later in that Summer of 2005, Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300,000 Nat Ray, the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 1:51. Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals, and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with. Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time, dominated the Big M’s signature event in 1:48.4, and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy. Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1:51.2. Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend, trainer Larry Rathbone. Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business, and the native of

Monticello, NY earned titles at Monticello, Liberty Bell, Garden State Park and Freehold. The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races, win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace, Dan Patch Award winner Winky’s Goal, millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella, and world champion Beat The Wheel. But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winner’s circle. Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape, which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road. He has also thrived in something he loved to do, dayafter-day and night-after-night. He painted a masterpiece career, and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow. The other night at the Big M, his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer, brothers John and Tom Cancelliere, who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield, NJ. It’s only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together. We salute The Cat Man.

– HPN

Join Horse Player NOW’s Tom Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday, June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as they host a Night School Tour fan education experience during the prestigious Pepsi North America Cup Card, Canada’s richest day of harness racing all year.

The featured 31st North America Cup, with a purse of $1 million, will bring together the best 3-yearold pacers in North America and rates as one of harness racing’s premier events, while highlighting a stakes-filled card that will be long on depth and talent.

Both will lend their extensive knowledge throughout the day to help fans learn the nuances of the game, formulate wagering strategies, as well as give how-to seminars ranging from how to read past performance lines to understanding how a race may unfold.

Several of North America’s top 3-year-old pacers are scheduled to compete, including early North America Cup favorite Hes Watching, who won a division of the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes May 31 at Mohawk to move his lifetime record to 9-for-10. -more-

JK Endofanera and Always B Miki won the other two divisions and also rate major contenders. Doo Wop Hanover and Western Vintage (pictured right), the 1-2 finishers in the New Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at Meadowlands, are also expected to compete, as well as All Bets Off, who won the Art Rooney the same night at the Meadowlands. All told, 10 will start, with the final field to be determined by the eliminations to be held at Mohawk June 7. The North America Cup is one of several lucrative stakes on the card, which will draw some of the top drivers in the sport to Mohawk, including the likes of Brian Sears, Corey Callahan, John Campbell and Tim Tetrick, among others. The $400,000 Fan Hanover, the sister race to the North America Cup, will pit the best 3-year-old filly pacers around, while the $250,000 Roses are Red will bring together some of the best filly and mare pacers, while the $225,000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-yearold trotters in action. Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand from 4 p.m. until the end of the Mohawk card to continue a successful run of fan education events on the Night School Tour that have included stops at the Preakness, Belmont, Hambletonian, Queen's Plate and Breedersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Cup et al in recent seasons. CLICK FOR PREVIEW

Who’s Your Daddy?

By Jennifer K. Hancock As a member of the Racing Aces handicapping team, I’m asked to travel around the country sharing handicapping techniques and advice at seminars. Prior to traveling to a track, I’ll handicap the card for the day of races and nothing makes my heart sink like seeing a maiden claiming race filled with first-time starters. While I’m tempted to turn the page to the next race, I instead turn to one of my favorite pieces of information – pedigrees. When is the last time you walked up to a slot machine at a casino and had it give you insight into its past performances, pedigree and other vital information about how it might perform before you place your bet? Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective work and reap big rewards. While there always are exceptions to every rule – modestly bred California Chrome’s destruction of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness fields against some blue-bloods comes to mind – handicapping is about improving your odds by analyzing information. When looking at a field of first-time starters, I check out the trainer / jockey connections, look at the horses’ recent works and then dig into the pedigrees. If you are new to Quarter Horse racing and don’t recognize prominent names of the sires, where can you quickly find

information to help you make some intelligent choices?

Horse’s public demand based off of the highest stud fees.

The American Quarter Horse Association is the equivalent to the Thoroughbred industry’s Jockey Club. AQHA keeps records for every official Quarter Horse race as well as registration records on all American Quarter Horses. The American Quarter Horse Association offers free information at www.aqharacing.com. You don’t need a password or sign-up to gain access to long lists of data.

Researching the leading stallions lists will help you pick out top performing stallions, and hopefully you will be able to catch a stallion’s prodigy before the other bettors become wise to his runners. You can even research past years to look for trends.

Near the top of the AQHA Racing home page is a button that says “leaders.” Clicking the link will give you access to 20 free lists that are updated regularly with the latest racing statistics. While you can usually track Thoroughbred stud fees as a measure ofa stallion’s success, many American Quarter Horse stallions are syndicated when they head to the breeding farm, and their stud fees are traded through private treaties with the syndication members. Therefore it’s harder to gauge a Quarter

As of May 19, PYC Paint Your Wagon is the leading sire of 2year-old winners. The 11-year-old stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds in 2014 from 97 starts. His 2012 foal crop had 179 foals. Last year, PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the year on top of the list, too. In 2013, the stallion had 46 winners from 104 starts. As with any statistics, digging deeper can alert you to other potential nuggets of useful information. In 2013, freshman sire Foose landed at the No. 2 spot on the leading sire of 2-year-old winners list. He had 45 winning 2-year-olds, one less than PYC Paint Your Wagon, but Foose’s 2011 foal crop

had 50 less foals compared to PYC Paint Your Wagon. Foose’s starters had 70 wins from 75 starts. A wise handicapper that picked up early on this hot freshman sire’s runners making their way to the starting gate for the first time could cash in at the window. Some tracks begin running 2-yearolds earlier in the year such as Louisiana Downs’ Mardi Gras Futurity, which had trials in February. By the end of May and the opening of Ruidoso Downs, 2year-olds are racing across the country and most are setting their sights on Quarter Horse racing’s All American Futurity, which is run on Labor Day at Ruidoso. Be aware of the different racing calendars because the leaders lists might show an early bias to certain regions and stallions. Also, keep an eye on the freshmen sires because a hotshot like Foose can pop up and reward those that are paying attention to the trends. AQHA breaks down the numbers in several different ways. You can see leading sire information that

includes all of the sire’s runners and 2-year-old specific stats. For example, you can see top stallions for 2-year-old winners, 2-year-old money earners and 2-year-old graded stakes winners. Depending on the type of race I am handicapping, I will look at the different charts. While handicapping a maiden claiming race, I’m more interested in the sire’s total winners versus the sire’s ability with his runners in a stakes race. An example would be Stel Corona, who sired Old Girl, the winner of the May 18 Kindergarten Futurity at Los Alamitos. Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the 2-year-old money earners list with the boost of Old Girl’s $109,704 Kindergarten payday, but the stallion is ranked 28th on the list of 2-year-old winners with four winners from 15 starts. Utilizing the free information available on Quarter Horse stallions will hopefully have you sprinting to the window to cash your winning tickets!

The following are examples of the statistical information available at www.aqharacing.com. While it is logical that the stallions with the largest foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given that they have more starters), taking a look at the percentage of winners compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might not land them at the top of the leader board. Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20) Rank

Sire

Crop Size

Starts

Winners

Pyc Paint Your Wagon

179

Ivory James

177

Heza Fast Dash

Corona Cartel

Walk Thru Fire

122

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20) Rank

Sire

Crop Size

Starts

Winners

Earnings

Pyc Paint Your Wagon

179

$1,058,763

Corona Cartel

$371,526

Tempting Dash

$367,215

Ivory James

177

$280,304

Heza Fast Dash

$253,449

Jennifer K. Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Racing Aces Fan Education team. Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom, the press box coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park, the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing.

RAINBOW 6 WAGER’S INTEGRITY UPHELD BY GULFSTREAM By Brian W. Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend crunching numbers, watching replays, and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Park's holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6. The wager, which requires that bettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision, had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan. 10 and was rolling along with a carryover pool of better than $6 million. The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars, but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $6.6 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket …a day before the anticipated “Everything Must Go!” bonanza. Borislow covered a large number of the 142,560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15,000. Good luck also played in Borislow's favor, as more than 1.76 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day, and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg. Callana ($12.80) won the finale by a nose and a head, and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket. Much has been made about the size of Borislow's ticket, which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers. He bought nearly every race, a tactic

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs. The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Monday's guaranteed payday.

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times.

breaks along the way – and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers.

the takeout from such a massive pool, the thing I find most comforting about Borislow's Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track. I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal, but if not, it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation.

It does seem a little curious to me, but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically, by proxy) did not Despite the fact that such a play is purchase a pair of tickets at that simply not possible for a player like same cost to ensure the carryover, me, credit should be given where and thus the rewards from takeout credit is due as he picked his spot, that would have come from thought he may be able Monday's expected …it proved to take advantage of record pool. without a doubt the situation before the that such stealth mandatory payout, had While there is no denying techniques were the bankroll for that the real benefits that not being used by kind of play, and caught could have come to the host track… a handful of very lucky purse accounts by way of

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using “ALL” in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday. Such a play would have totaled $28,512. Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

Sunday's payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager, and massive jackpot wagers

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered, at least partly, to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score. While it is easy, and perhaps even natural, to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man, imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smallertime player investing $200 in Sunday's wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out.

wager in the first place.

What you don't know can't hurt you, or so the saying goes, right? But in this case, what we do know is what matters. In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side, we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players.

Wagers like the Rainbow Imagine if this player There is a time and 6 are devised for some combination of horsehad, through some place for cynicism combination of in this game – I'm players and dreamers. Borislow and his $15,000 handicapping skill and not immune … ticket may not fit your luck, managed to get definition of a dreamer; but if it to the finale with a ticket live to hadn't been him, it just as well Callana. After a string of prices and could have been someone with a beaten favorites, this player would small bankroll and a big dream. have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there Suggesting Gulfstream should have were two other tickets live to the guaranteed the carryover plays to same horse, ensuring a carryover the most cynical side of our into Monday's card. The payoff horseplaying mentality. There is a would have still been generous, time and place for cynicism in this and we very likely would have game – I'm not immune – but the never known that the track fact that the wager paid out a day ensured a Monday carryover. prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game: This imaginary player in this when all parties play by the rules. fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of This time, it benefited Borislow. a lifetime – and been robbed of it – Next time, it might be you. - HPN by the host property providing the

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Horse Player NOW takes you inside the past performances – the GPS of nearly every player – and dissects a specific race for what to look for within the lines – and between them. We advance up the class ladder this month from the maiden ranks to the bottom end of the claiming ladder – the “non-winners of 2 lifetime” condition. By definition, these horses have only 1 win lifetime at most, and these races – when offered for a low claiming tag – often gather some “lifers” in the condition as they struggle to break through again and find the right bunch. Occasionally you’ll find a N2L claimer in which 1 or a few of the runners have decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms of class than the others. When you do, give a long look at such runners. It’s all about finding the easiest and right bunch when competing at this lower level. Also consider fitness and horses deeper into their form cycles. When none of the runners are particularly brilliant on talent, fitness can be what makes the difference late in the race -- even among horses who haven’t shown great desire to win. When horses drop in class from a higher claiming category (open, non-winners of 3 lifetime, etc.), you should consider it a class drop even if the claiming price of the previous race was lower than today’s N2L claiming price. PPs courtesy BRIS, chart LINK courtesy Equibase.

Point Given / Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del), 3yo f, 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind), 3yo, 6F Swifty Sired (Ind), 3yo f, 6F 5 Justakiss (Del), f/m, 8.5F 6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel), 4&up, 16F-T True North (Bel), 4&up, 6F Hawkeyes (PrM), f/m, 8.5F 7 Belmont Stakes (Bel), 3yo, 12F Met Mile (Bel), 3&up, 8F Manhattan (Bel), 4&up, 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel), 4&up, 12F Just A Game (Bel), f/m, 8F-T Phipps (Bel), f/m, 8.5F Acorn (Bel), 3yo f, 8F

Stephens (Bel), 3yo, 7F Easy Goer (Bel), 3yo, 8.5F Jaipur (Bel), 4&up, 6F-T Affirmed (SA), 3yo, 8.5F Mint Julep (CD), f/m, 8.5F-T Lady Angela (WO), 3yo f, 7F Crank It Up (Mth), 3yo f, 5.5F-T Jostle (Prx), 3yo f, 6.5F Purple Violet (AP), 3yo f, 8F Brooks Fields (Cby), 3&up, 7.5F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby), f/m, 7.5F-T Cyclones (PrM), 3&up, 8.5F Mackey Memorial (Tdn), f/m, 6F Emerald Downs (Hst), 3y f, 6.5F River Rock Casino (Hst), 3yo, 6.5F 8 Crystal Water (SA), 4&up, 8F-T Steady Growth (WO), 3&up, 8.5F Intercontinental (Bel), f/m, 7F-T. Silky Sullivan (GG), 3yo, 8F Campanile (GG), 3yo f, 8F WA Legislators (Emd), f/m, 6.5F Vancouver Sun (Hst), f/m, 8.5F Sir Winston Câ&#x20AC;&#x2122;hill (Hst), 3&up, 8.5F Monmouth (Mth), 3&up, 9F-T McSorley (Mth), 3&up, 5.5F-T Satin and Lace (PID), f/m, 5.5F 9 Boyles Memorial (PID), 3&up, 5.5F 12 Dashing Beauty (Del), f/m, 6F

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14 Stephen Foster (CD), 3&up, 9F Fleur de Lis (CD), f/m, 9F Matt Winn (CD), 3yo, 8.5F Regret (CD), 3yo f, 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA), 3&up, 8F-T Vanity (SA), f/m, 9F Bold Ruckus (WO), 3yo, 6F Trillium (WO), f/m, 8.5F-T English Channel (GP), 3yo, 8.5F-T Starfish Bay (GP), 3yo f, 8.5F-T Obeah (Del), f/m, 9F Isaac Murphy (AP), 3&up, 6F Astoria (Bel), 2yo f, 5.5F Little Silver (Mth), 3yo f, 8F-T Nancy’s Glitter (Crc), f/m, 8F Albany (GG), 3&up, 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT), f/m, 4.5F Danzig (Pen), 3yo, 6F New Star (Pen), 3yo f, 6F Scholarship (LS), f/m, 7.5F-T 15 Woodbine Oaks (WO), 3yo f, 9F Plate Trial (WO), 3yo, 9F Alywow (WO), 3yo f, 6.5F Pegasus (Mth), 3yo, 8.5F Dan Horn (Mth), 3&up, 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA), f/m, 6F Tremont (Bel), 2yo, 5.5F Budweiser (Emd), 3&up, 8F Gendelman (BTP), 3&up, 8.5F Dark Star Cup (Cby), 3&up, 6.5F Northbound Pride (Cby), 3yo f, 8F

18 Centaur (Ind), 3yo, 8F-T Boys/Girls Club (Ind), 4&up, 8.5F Hockessin (Del), 4&up, 6F 21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd), 3&up, 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd), 3&up, 8F Acadiana (Evd), 3yo f, 7F Lafayette (Evd), 3yo, 7F Opelousas (Evd), f/m, 8.5F S’time Oaks (SA), 3yo f, 8.5F-T Singletary (SA), 3yo, 8F-T Eatontown (Mth), f/m, 8.5F-T Bed o’ Roses (Bel), f/m, 7F Wild Applause (Bel), 3yo f, 8F-T Debutante (CD), 2yo f, 6F Hilda’s Passion (GP), 3yo f, 8F Black Tie Affair (AP), 3&up, 8.5F Victoria (WO), 2yo, 5F Oak Tree (Pln), 3&up, 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx), 3&up, 7F Rise Jim (Suf), 3&up, 6F 22 King Edward (WO), 3&up, 8F-T Victoria Park (WO), 3yo, 9F Landaluce (SA), 2yo f, 5.5F SA Juvenile (SA), 2yo, 5.5F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln), 3yo f, 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel), 3yo f, 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel), 3yo, 7F Red Cross (Mth), f/m, 6F Coca-Cola (Emd), 3yo, 8F Windward (PID), f/m, 8F

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25 Shelby County (Ind), f/m, 6F Harrison (Ind), 3&up, 6F 26 Stanton (Del), 3yo, 8.5F-T

29 San Juan Cap’no (SA), 3&up, 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel), 3yo f, 6.5F Mr. Prospector (Mth), 3&up, 6F Petro (Tdn), f/m, 8.5F Irish Day (Emd), 3yo f, 8F

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM), f/m, 8.5F Iowa Sprint (PrM), 3&up, 6F Saylorville (PrM), f/m, 6F 28 SA Gold Cup (SA), 3&up, 10F Triple Bend (SA), 3&up, 7F Royal Heroine (SA), f/m, 8F-T Senorita (SA), 3yo f, 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel), 3yo f, 8.5F New York (Bel), f/m, 10F-T Manila (Bel), 3yo, 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM), 3yo, 8.5F Iowa Oaks (PrM), 3yo f, 8.5F Cornhusker (PrM), 3&up, 9F Chicago (AP), f/m, 7F Firecracker (CD), 3&up, 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD), 2yo, 6F Quality Road (GP), 3yo, 8.5F Lighthouse (Mth), f/m, 8.5F-T My Dear (WO), 2yo f, 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln), f/m, 6F Isadorable (Suf), f/m, 6F

Read Jeremy Plonk’s Countdown to the Crown every Friday – all the way through the Queen’s Plate on July 6 this year! Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian Triple Crown pursuits! Countdowntothecrown.com

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING GUIDES ON THE HORIZON! June 15 – Woodbine Oaks June 21 – Evangeline Turf Sprint

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June 3 – Online: Night School June 4 – Online: Woodbine chat June 7 – Belmont Stakes Day June 7 – Pimlico closes June 8 – Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 – Online: Night School June 11 – Online: Woodbine chat June 14 – Night School Tour at Mohawk’s Pepsi North America Cup June 17 – Online: Night School June 17 – Royal Ascot opens June 18 – Online: Woodbine chat June 19 – Pleasanton opens June 21 – Royal Ascot closes June 21 – Wyoming Downs opens June 24 – Online: Night School June 25 – Online: Woodbine chat June 28 – TV: NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 – Churchill Downs closes June 29 – Santa Anita closes July 1 – July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau & Tom Kelley Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14! PLAY WITH OUR PROS.

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WOODBINE OAKS June 15, 2014

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her ’13 score. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS: Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies, keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group. The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canada’s champion 3YO filly historically–and a major springboard to the Queen’s Plate where the gals have had much success. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Nipissing, who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return, rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice. She would go on to run 8th in the Queen’s Plate vs. the boys.

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES: Last 10 Winners – Full History ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04

Nipissing Irish Mission Inglorious Roan Inish Milwaukee Apeal Ginger Brew Sealy Hill Kimchi Gold Strike Eye of the Sphynx

S. Bahen A. Solis L. Contreras D. Moran S. Elliott J. Castellano P. Husbands P. Husbands J. McAleney T. Kabel

Rachel Halden Mark Frostad Josie Carroll Carolyn Costigan

Scott Fairlie Brian Lynch Mark Casse Mark Casse Reade Baker Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winners’ Preps ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04

Nipissing Irish Mission Inglorious Roan Inish Milwaukee Apeal Ginger Brew Sealy Hill Kimchi Gold Strike Eye of the Sphynx

2nd 1st 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 12th 2nd 1st 1st

G3 Selene Stakes (WO) maiden (Kee) La Lorgnette (WO) Fury (WO) La Lorgnette (WO) Calder Oaks (Crc) G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD) allowance (WO) G3 Selene Stakes (WO) G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

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When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown, not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media. Unable to punch holes in his resume, his trainer or his owner on oxygen, the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott. I call it the “Stewie Pool Cue Moment” – when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor. In the shadow of the Belmont, the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend. A decade later, Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick. So much for that “story” actually being a story. It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul. “Bigness”

gets to the media, which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes. Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories, as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed. Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem „fame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont, much like his horse – and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question. The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont, and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track, says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy. That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome, and worry about the heroic beat-down later.

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