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CONTENTS MAY 2014 * Preakness Update Page 79! *

From The Publisher

7 Page 7: Horses to Watch

Every day page updates with a live “BUZZ” play in-today. Bookmark!

50 Oaks-Derby Doubling Up

Nadeau strategizes a 2-day wager.

55 Betting the Big One

Multi-race and Intra-race attacks for the Kentucky Derby

9 The Teaser

57 Preakness Schedules

14 Back to Night School –

58 BRIS Handicapping Hints

Topics that titillate the racing mind.

Derby Handicapping

Top players from the best of Night School help your Derby decisions.

20 Questions for Caton

Bredar takes your Qs each issue!

22 Legends Gallery 23 Countdown to the Crown

Plonk analyzes all 20 Derby hopes.

44 Derby/Oaks Day Schedules 45 Victor Victorious?

Shottenkirk looks at the impact of early speed on the Derby.

DeRosa talks Churchill Downs.

60 AQHA Handicapping

Blake tackles the turn, 870-yard Quarter Horse races.

63 Harness Handicapping

Warkentin spotlights the Millers’ Orange Crush on Trotters.

67 Stakes Schedule/Key Dates 73 Playing on Paper

See our marked PPs and attack for maiden special weight races.

77 Galloping Out

“The Long Run” never gets here. 3

From the Publisher A lot may be broken in America, the world and particularly the horse racing industry. But exclude the Triple Crown from that list of woes. The Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes work – quite well, thank you. The tinkers in society, the academics and pundits alike, all want to do something to exhibit their intelligence. And while the intentions may be noble, here is one piece of advice you can bet on: Muster up all your energy and thoughts about how you would change the Triple Crown and put it to work in an area that needs it. The old line is “If it ain’t broke …” and we should understand to leave well enough alone the 3 weeks that work and focus on the 49 that may not work as well. The Triple Crown remains our crown jewel, and we begin that celebration on these pages to come...because it’s everything we love about the game we play – no matter what anyone does to try and change it.

– JP

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk Contributing Writers Caton Bredar Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau Denis Blake Ken Warkentin Ed DeRosa Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz.com) Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese / NYRA Benoit Photo / Santa Anita Reed Palmer / Churchill Coady Photography / Oaklawn Tom Baker / Horse Player NOW Jim McCue / Maryland Jockey Club Michael Lisa / Meadowlands 4

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We update this page of the digital magazine every racing day–keep coming back! Each day’s play derived directly from that day’s official…

THURSDAY, MAY 15, 2014 Race 3 - Santa Anita #4 Star Act Our Eyes: She broke from a tough outside post, for the mile distance on the turf, taken back to last and trailed early, out and forced seven wide on the far turn entering the stretch, gained her best stride late...strong gallop out. Jockey Gary Stevens back aboard for Tom Proctor barn and gets a much better post today. - Terry Turrell Terry's Playbook: Bet to win. Key in exotics. OUR EYES. YOUR PRIZE. Full Report $10 daily ($15 Sat.) Subscriptions $49.95 /month … AND $100 / 3 months

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Orb and Joel Rosario win 2013 Kentucky Derby. ©Horsephotos.com/NTRA

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THE TEASER:

From papal props to Kate Upton to an offer Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether you can’t refuse, a mare is ready to receive a stallion. Also, perhaps the eventually it will most unfulfilling occupation in the universe. all make sense. From Francis, With Love It may have slipped beneath your radar like a Malaysian airliner, but a disreputable source assures me that Pope Francis, progressive head of the Catholic Church – complete with a Twitter handle and a Facebook page – has formally blessed the New York Racing Association and state legislators for upholding the traditions of Christmas, Palm and Easter Sundays. The Empire State long has observed these holy days by turning out the lights on live Thoroughbred racing, including OTB and ADW online action on nationwide tracks. (Way) off the record and on the QT, one legislator explained the

need for the racing ban, ―As the recently released PETA video clearly illustrates, racing is a vile and corrupt pastime, pursued by heathens in desperate need of God‘s blessings. As stewards of the minds, bodies and, indeed, souls of the good citizenry of the state of New York, we feel it is our duty to attempt to rehabilitate these wretches…at least 3 times a year.‖ Horseplayers were not as open-minded on the issue. ―Albany A-holes,‖ cracked Louie Bongiornio of Brooklyn. ―Like me bettin‘ da ponies has anything to do wit the price of cheese. ‗Dose guys outta worry about keepin‘ 9

schools open instead of closin‘ tracks.‖ It should be noted that while horse racing donned purple veils on consecutive Sundays to conclude Lent, statewide lottery sales continued unabated and slots spun cherries, lemons, plums and other assorted fruits. Double Your Pleasure In December it was announced that Santa Anita would reduce takeout on its Daily Double wager from 22.68 percent to 18 percent during its upcoming historic winter season. The news was met with ‗hurrahs‘ from horseplayers nationwide. Then the other shoe dropped. With holes in it. Instead of offering ―rolling doubles‖ from race to race, the track opted to limit the wager‘s availability to just three times per card: races 1 & 2, 3 & 5, & the last pair of the day. Boos resonated nationwide. Racetrack operators often are criticized for not trying different things, but suits at the Great Race Place should have known that this move ultimately would result in

‗double-trouble.‘ What did they think would happen? That horseplayers would be so elated at reduced takeout that they wouldn‘t mind being unable to wheel that 20-1 shot they liked in the fourth to ‗all‘ in the fifth? Sheesh! In early April it was announced that Santa Anita would return to offering rolling doubles with an 18 percent takeout rate at the start of its spring-summer meeting, which opened last weekend (April 25). Now, that‘s what I‘m talkin‘ ‗bout! Low takeout AND rolling doubles! TOC head honcho Joe Morris was quoted in Daily Racing Form, ―We‘ll have two experiments to see what it will tell us.‖ Here‘s a wild guess at what you‘ll hear: Players like the 18-percent takeout reduction and also enjoy the versatility of rolling doubles. Is that so difficult to imagine? Bottom Line: It‘s good for tracks to think outside the box, but folks, let‘s complete the thought. Anyone sitting around a table that says, ‗Let‘s try it and see what happens‘ ought to be made to stand in the corner. 10

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Just Say ‘No?’ The Teaser‘s printable list of fantasies, which includes an enchanted evening with Kate Upton, is topped by the dream of owning a brilliant 3-year-old in March. Not May, mind you. March. That‘s where the Benjamins live. Reportedly, following an entry-level allowance race at Gulfstream Park in his second career start and win, an outrageous $8 million offer was proffered for Social Inclusion. Did you see that race? It was a fivehorse field with no speed and a favorite (Honor Code) returning from a layoff. What the heck was supposed to happen? Ron Sanchez, owner of Social Inclusion, reportedly declined the offer because he wanted the horse to remain with current 85-year-old trainer Manny Azpurua and the new owners had conflicting conditioner desires. That‘s nice, especially if it‘s true. It‘s also a bit insane.

At this writing, we‘ve seen two major 3-year-old players forced out of the Kentucky Derby due to injury—Constitution and Cairo Prince. More may follow. An old racetrack saw suggests that horses are like bananas—they spoil overnight. Wonder if Ron Sanchez has ever heard that one? Thankfully, Social Inclusion is healthy and probably headed to the Preakness. His most recent race was a game effort in the Wood, where he finished third, beaten three and onehalf lengths. No word on any subsequent offers. In fact, that sound you hear is $8 million circling the drain. Even if you‘ve got the favorite for the roses, if anyone ever offers The Teaser $8 million for a 3-yearold colt, he‘ll have one question and one question only, ―You need a lift to the bank?‖

The Teaser would like to tell the Pope this was all tongue in cheek – except the Kate Upton part. -HPN 12

This month’s topic of review:

DERBY HANDICAPPING Since 2011, Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races. Through live chats, videos and radio simulcasts, the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers. In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine, we go “Back to Night School” with a look at some of the high points of past lessons.

“Derby Handicapping” has been an annual topic in Night School since our 2011 debut, and we’ve had top racing analysts grace the stage to help fans find a winner in the game’s toughest puzzle. Past in-chat guests have included NBC analyst Randy Moss, Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman, former Churchill racecaller Mark Johnson, Ed DeRosa of BRIS and Gary West of ESPN.com. On video, our guests have included 3-time Derbywinning jockey Calvin Borel, speed figure guru Andy Beyer and DRF clocker to the stars Mike Welsch among others.

All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read, listen and view. In this “Back to Night School” edition, we’ll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping the Kentucky Derby. “Derby Handicapping” Archives: 2012 Video: Calvin Borel - link

2012 Video: Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video: Mike Welsch - link

CLICK THE VIDEOS TO WATCH!

What goes into Derby handicapping preparation? Randy Moss: It's watching replays, doing speed-figure study, figuring out which running styles will be benefitted, and monitoring who's healthy. Jeremy Plonk: Preparing for the Derby is about comparing where they were and where they are now. Having a sense of progress/regress is the key. And sometimes it's just crazy. I won't try to BS anyone into thinking you're coming up with Mine That Bird in any amount of study. How important are the pre-Derby workouts? Jay Privman: I think works are a guide in that you can tell who is doing well and who is not, but I don't think you can base a pick on who works best. There's more to it than that. Everybody loves how they are doing so you have to take comments with a grain of salt, unless you uncover a heretofore unknown nugget.

about 70% or so of Derby winners turned out to be the best horse in the race in hindsight. The best horse has an uncanny way of winning despite traffic. I'm not a big jockey guy, but I actually think jockey experience is more important than trainer experience. Some kids get rattled, move too early. Randy Moss: You need a reference point to judge horses in morning workouts. Some horses always look good, some always train with little enthusiasm … I don't pay that much attention to workouts, to be honest with you. Not as much as some others. It's hurt me some in past, but helped me, too ...Trainers don't tell you anything unless it's positive. Overblown Angles Handicapping the Derby? Randy Moss: Advice: other than its effect on pace, don't get caught up in worrying about traffic in a 20-horse field. Look at recent Derby history:

Gary West: I don't judge a (prep) race based on what some committee in Lexington said in December when they assigned Roman numerals. Races should be graded after, not before, they're run. Jay Privman: Dosage is as dead as Osama bin Laden. … foal date means nothing at this point. He's already run enough that you know what you've got. Wouldn't matter if he was born in January or June at this point. As a 2yo, maybe. But not now. There’s enough proven form to weigh other factors than his birthday, unless you believe in horoscopes.

What about the FAST track on Derby Day?

Bottom-Line Advice for Betting the Derby?

Randy Moss: Churchill Downsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; surface is always hard and fast on Derby day, primarily as precaution because it dries faster that way.

Mark Johnson: â&#x20AC;Ś If you fancy two horses the same you have to back the bigger price (in any race from the Derby to a five-grand claimer).

Host - Jeremy Plonk: The Derby Day track will be as fast as it possibly can be. If that's souped, then yes. But the fastest souped track ever produced a winner from the clouds, Monarchos, so don't mistake fast with speed style.

Jay Privman: You take your swing, and if you are wrong, there's plenty more somewhere else on Sunday.

-HPN

Each issue, weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll take your questions for Caton Bredar, Horse Player NOW analyst, Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV. WHAT MAKES A GOOD DERBY PICK? When I was growing up, I'd spend hours going through the Daily Racing Form to come up with a horse on which my parents would place a $2 show bet for me (the only annual "vacation" they ever took was to Lexington and Louisville for the first weekend in May as guests of Preston and Anita Madden). I set up a grid of various criteria, ranking each Derby runner on pedigree, connections, running style, recent form including workouts and class, with each category equal in importance as every other category. Those categories then and now remain the things I look at when selecting my Derby horse--and I still feel each of those categories is equal in importance. Back then, you didn't have 20horse fields and I didn't really look at post position; to a certain

extent, that remains true today as luck at the start is indeterminate and something that can't be controlled or predicted with any degree of certainty. The only change now, with the abundance of immediate and easily accessible information, is the opportunity to know a bit more about how a horse is doing and how his connections are feeling. For my wagering dollar ($2 to show or otherwise) a good Derby pick is a horse who has the pedigree, running style, recent form and class to compete well at a mile and one-quarter, whose connections seem to know what to do to bring out the best in their

Pose your questions each week in Night School â&#x20AC;&#x201C; or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com! 20

horse, and who isn't coming into the race with major questions looming, such as: why didn't he work well, will his form carry over to dirt, or should we really be running in the Derby? Rule of thumb, if you have to ask whether you should run, you probably don't have a good Derby horse. WHAT’S YOUR FAVORITE DERBY/DERBY HORSE EVER? While my first Derby favorite was Affirmed (probably as much for Steve Cauthen as for the horse), the first Derby winner I correctly selected on the air was Real Quiet (and I bet a few dollars, too), so that's one that will always have a soft spot in my heart. The first Derby I watched in person was with my parents and future husband, Doug, in 1988, when the filly Winning Colors and Gary Stevens made history – I'll always remember the way she looked as she was led back past the stands after the winner’s circle – the crowd applauding and the filly seemingly recognizing the cheering was for her. Finally, Doug paid off a large portion of our mortgage on Animal Kingdom, who I got to ride

next to and cover later, in victory, in the Dubai World Cup, so that's another that I'll always have extremely fond memories of. HOW IMPORTANT ARE FINAL WORKOUTS FOR THE DERBY? It's a little like asking how important are the final few training sessions for an Olympic runner or swimmer prior to the games. On the one hand, in terms of conditioning, mental and physical preparation, overall well-being going into competition they are extremely important. On the other hand, the exact time or timing of the work isn't nearly as important as the execution and whether or not the work helps the athlete move forward positively toward the competition. Many horses have worked well and run poorly; very few horses have worked poorly and run well, especially in the Kentucky Derby. I watch to see if the horse seems comfortable, achieves the pre-stated goals of the trainer, and most importantly, seems as comfortable and happy in the days following the work as he did prior. Works are an important factor– one of many. Follow me @CBredar.

Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com! 21

This week’s fearless forecast

Week 18, May 2, 2014 By Jeremy Plonk

Our weekly scouting report hits its annual crescendo with Derby 140 upon us this week. Each horse undergoes close scrutiny for past performances, current career arc and historical comparables that might tip us toward success or failure under the Twin Spires on Saturday.

Countdown has

penned more than a million words covering nearly 200 weeks of action the past 9 years. The mission has been Can anyone take the shine off California Chrome? to be thorough, while pulling no punches. That‟s Editor‟s Note: The ninth season of why the Triple Crown picks editions Countdown to the Crown offers the spell out very clearly the wagering most comprehensive scouting intentions for each horse – “Not on report of the 3-year-old scene. My Tickets,” “Exotic Inclusions,” Countdowntothecrown.com is the and “Win Contenders.”

home each Friday from Jan. 3 through the Belmont Stakes, and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes.

Tough decisions are part of the equation when dealing with 20 horses who all have earned their way via some accomplishment. Let‟s count them down! 23

Not On My Tickets HARRY’S HOLIDAY: If not for a 2nd in a historically slow edition of the G3 Spiral, he‟d not be here or beeping on any radar screens. No horse has rebounded from such a wretched final prep (13th by 28-1/4 lengths in the G1 Blue Grass) to wear the roses, nor will he. The running style and pedigree don‟t suggest he can pass horses, and hence holds no hope in even a meltdown Derby pace ala Mine That Bird or Giacomo, recent 50-1 stunners in this race. „Harry‟ looks 300-1 in fair odds and I‟d still pass. VINCEREMOS: Last of 14 in the G1 Blue Grass, beaten 28-1/2 lengths, makes even a surface apologist pause. Even if he loathed the Polytrack at Keeneland, which appears pretty obvious after going 4: 2-2-0 prior, there are no results or common opponents in his past performances that add up to him belonging in the top 4 of any ticket, much less the top half of this field without a major step-up. His sire was 2nd in the Derby and his damsire 4th for the roses, and you have superb connections with Todd Pletcher, WinStar and Twin Creeks Racing all sharing success at the highest levels. On pedigree

and people you can make some case, but on the PPs that matter most – the ones we read – Vinceremos looks destined for a mid-pack finish at best to this eye.

WE MISS ARTIE (above): If you were making a yearbook, he‟d be voted most likely to succeed. The reigning Eclipse Award champion owner (Ken & Sarah Ramsey), trainer (Todd Pletcher) and jockey (Javier Castellano) all team up for a historic Derby entrant. Since the awards were first given in 1971, no Derby entrant has ever been rep‟d by the sport‟s 3 reigning honorees. That said, you‟re still likely looking at a 20-1 shot. The surface police have thoroughly dismissed We Miss Artie as a Polytrack/turf specialist, while summary dismissals have been hot and cold in the synthetic era. Such things were said about Dullahan, Paddy O‟ Prado and Animal Kingdom, who were critical 24

to cashing a Derby trifecta in 2010, 2011 and 2012. I promise you he looked like a possible winner of the Breeders‟ Cup Juvenile inside the last 200 yards in the autumn – go watch the replay again – as hard as it is to believe. So I think he‟s better on dirt than he‟s given credit for, but there does not appear the necessary late oomph to me to push home at this classic distance against this quality of competition. And his final workout over the weekend left him in the dust of Intense Holiday. We Miss Artie will fit better against Queen‟s Plate competition when things are restricted to Ontario-breds in July.

If you‟re blind to the news and strictly look at him on paper, he‟s not easily dismissed whatsoever. His strength of competition has been solid even if half his races were vs. state-breds. I don‟t think you can knock the 2014 Wood Memorial – it feels more legitimate to me than many recent renewals of that race. The Wood hasn‟t produced a Top 3 Derby finisher since Funny Cide and Empire Maker in 2003, and that‟s because the Florida and Louisiana Derby dates have moved closer to the big dance and drained the Wood of its feeder races of the past. I won‟t argue with you if you play Samraat, but I‟m reluctantly off after the post-Wood news.

SAMRAAT (right): He‟s won 5 of 6, including the Gotham. So what‟s wrong with this guy? His trip to Fair Hill and visit to the hyperbaric chamber sends out a negative signal following an otherwise admirable runner-up in the G1 Wood. You go there to rejuvenate or speed up the healing process. Then he gets holed up at Belmont Park to train out of the spotlight because of a quarantine threat at his Aqueduct base. It just feels a bit off to someone who has followed this pursuit so closely for so many years. 25

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VICAR’S IN TROUBLE: His 3 wins have come when able to dictate the pace and his 2 losses by 5-plus lengths resulted in his inability to make the front. This Louisiana-bred isn‟t cheap speed, per se, but it appears he‟ll pay an expensive price trying to wire this group. A rail draw turns up the heat.

plan work out in the Louisiana Derby. That was the best thing to happen to the Mike Maker barn in the past 2 months as he and Ramsey went inexplicably cold as ice at Keeneland by their standards. My faith in the Vicar waking up this barn in the Derby ranks somewhere near a Hail Mary.

Value bettors will find none in the win pool with Derby darling Rosie Napravnik (below right) worth 5-10 points in the casual bettors‟ marketplace. If you like Vicar‟s in Trouble, look to get to him with daily doubles from Wise Dan in the Turf Classic, or your choice in the Oaks-Derby Double. Serious bettors will have him the legitimate 20 or 30-1 he belongs in relative terms in those pools – whereas the casual winpool crowd might pound Vicar‟s in Trouble nearly half that offering.

CHITU: We talk about how horses are built and what they‟re meant to do from a physical standpoint. Chitu looks like a quintessential sprinter, with that big Quarter Horse chest and rump, providing power, but not exactly the fluidity of a gazelle to last long distances. While not a total need-the-lead type, he‟s never been more than a length off the engine and jockey Martin Garcia‟s style certainly has been to put most of his charges right into the race. Even with the A.P. Indy on the damside of the pedigree, the Henny Hughes up top and his running style and body build make me think that 10 furlongs simply takes him too far. Baffert deliberated the 1-mile Derby Trial a week ago, which ought to say something.

He popped an abscess after the Risen Star and missed the Sunland Derby, only to have a re-routed

UNCLE SIGH: The New York sidekick of Samraat was unable to overcome a bad start in the G1 Wood, which doesn‟t bode well for 27

a 20-horse cavalry charge. We all thought he was gritty in defeat in the Withers and Gotham, but they were defeats, after all. Then his lack of strong resolve to overcome trouble in the Wood makes you wonder if he‟s just not up to the test. Add in a young rider making his Derby debut and it starts to look like Uncle Sigh just might need everything to go his way to wear the roses. Dream trips do come true, even in Louisville, so it‟s not out of the question. Blinkers-on for Derby traditionally has been bad business, and trainer Gary Contessa makes the big move without a sense of how this son of Indian Charlie might react. In a crapshoot of a race, that‟s a roll of the dice that even scares the gambler in me. I like the horse, but I‟ll pass with the blinkers & 3-draw. RIDE ON CURLIN: Yes, I love Calvin Borel in the Derby as much as the next player. Yes, the Arkansas Derby has been a key race for me for the past decade in the Triple Crown. And, yes, this is the kind of battle-tested horse I usually warm up to around this time of year vs. the Johnny-ComeLately crew. But sometimes the noggin tells you something simple

and you go ahead and listen. Mine says he simply can‟t run this far. Sure, his daddy, Curlin, gets him the trip, but that damside, brilliant speed is just too hard to overlook for me. And the bottom is where the stamina most often lies. He‟s either lost lengths or position late in all 6 career races at a mile or more. That‟s a half-dozen chances to prove a handicapper wrong. In this age of playing the ponies, when you see something 6 times, it‟s almost a lifetime. You can‟t help but root for Bronco Billy Gowan, he of the 2-horse stable. And like we mentioned with Vicar‟s in Trouble, if you do want to play this horse, Borel will hurt the win-pool casual odds. Look to the daily doubles to get what would be fair odds – and I‟d want something in the 40-1 range before I played him on top. On the bottom of the tri or super might be a more logical discussion, and one I‟d listen to – but in the spirit of having to eliminate somewhere, he‟s off of my gimmicks altogether. WILDCAT RED: With all 7 races on the speed-friendly strip at Gulfstream Park, this was a key workout to watch at Churchill Downs and Wildcat Red simply did 29

not deliver confidence in that a.m. move. We can over-blow workouts on horses who impress us often, but rarely does an unimpressive worker show you to be wrong. I‟ve been waiting since February for distances to trip up this tough, little sucker, but he keeps outrunning his pedigree and my expectations. While it might sound snobbish for a handicapper to doubt his chances, throw jockeys and agents into that mix as well. He hasn‟t been able to keep a pilot as the trail proceeds – because the big-timers simply prefer others. If Wildcat Red can do it one more time, the country of Venezuela will be rocking like it‟s 1971 and Canonero II all over again. He might be the pacesetter in the Derby, but I‟m not sure he‟s a pure blazer capable of wrestling it from others who are intent. This could be a real “no lead, no pass” situation if he‟s not hard-used early. Either way, a bad recipe. COMMANDING CURVE: Nearly everyone I know and respect has this as the price inclusion to fear. So it‟s with great trepidation that I leave him off my tickets. My pace evaluation is that the Derby won‟t be a total meltdown like some

project and that won‟t help a horse like Commanding Curve, who would seem to need that kind of “come back to me” situation that bode so well for his stablemate Golden Soul a year ago. Trip handicappers know he hasn‟t shown his best because of bad circumstances, but if you‟re hoping for a clean trip from the back of the Derby, it‟s likely to come with a wide sweep that gives away ground. To do that, you either need to be best or have a lot of tired hitchhikers with their thumbs out at the quarter-pole. UPDATE: inclusion of Pablo Del Monte makes 'Curve' bigger exotics threat.

Exotics Inclusions TAPITURE (above): He‟s an Arkansas Derby win away from being the clear-cut second choice in the betting to California Chrome. 30

But a listless fourth in Hot Springs has cooled his momentum. The hullabaloo with the Steve Asmussen stable has no impact on his chances, but I do think it will impact the toteboard. There‟s a real root-against factor with this horse that will trickle into the parimutuel process. Don‟t think it‟s true? Look no further than yours truly. I will admit today that I let my disdain for the Big Brown camp trickle into my wagering on his races in 2008. I have to think that I‟m not alone, and I‟m a serious player who takes such things seriously. Imagine how many others might slip into that mindset. It was not right as a horseplayer in 2008 to let those emotions creep into the nuts and bolts of decision-making, and I‟ve learned my lesson (as all players do the longer we‟re in this game). Tapiture is no less a Kentucky Derby win contender with Steve Asmussen (right) training than any of the publicly fancied barns out there. So let‟s talk Tapiture. Two things stand out from his Arkansas Derby fourth, easily the

dullest effort of his career. First, he did not need to run well; he securely had the points pursuit in place. Second, big-name rider Joel Rosario came to Oaklawn for the mount – jumping off Strong Mandate – and calling a spade a spade, he has not been riding with the kind of repute you expect from him like we saw a year ago. Rosario‟s term on Tapiture was one-and-done, and going back to the barn‟s regional A-rider Ricardo Santana will look like a step back to most horseplayers. But given the Asmussen situation and the 4th-place run by Tapiture last out, it logically would have been a tough “get” for them to reach out to a big-name rider and join this team. Santana, the house rider, and himself part of the video probe that has rocked horse racing‟s outward image, might be just what is needed at this time for Tapiture, the horse. Forget what you think of the human players involved, no matter which side of the situation you lean. The 15-hole is a great spot to leave from in the gate. 31

Tapiture does come up a bit short on stamina and pedigree for me to win the Derby. But his chances of continuing his perfect record in the superfecta (7-for-7) remain strong in my eyes despite the result in Arkansas last time out. DANCE WITH FATE: On one hand, he beat California Chrome in last summer‟s Del Mar Futurity when 2nd to his more bally-hooed pal‟s 6th. On the other hand, he since has been typecast as a synthetic and turf specialist. Dance With Fate (top-right) might be as tough of a read as any horse in this year‟s Derby field. On pedigree, he‟s equipped to run not only 1 ¼ miles, but to have some effectiveness on dirt. This is not a mish-mosh of European turf influences. He‟s a grandson of Petionville and Saint Ballado. He was the 2-1 favorite to win the G1 FrontRunner on dirt at Santa Anita, the big local prep for the Breeders‟ Cup – and didn‟t disappoint with a solid 2nd in which he led late and was overtaken in his 2-turn debut. He certainly didn‟t get beat by the dirt that day. Shoestring pundits

want to tie him to his 8th in the Juvenile, but he had a troubled start, wide trip and speed held exceptionally well. Toss him a mulligan there, and Dance With Fate has rattled off a 6: 3-3-0 mark since August while doing so on dirt, turf, synthetic and the kitchen sink. He came home sharply in the Blue Grass, a race that has done as well as many in the Triple Crown in recent years despite a public outcry that it hasn‟t. This one could add his name to that forgotten list – which is a good thing for value bettors seeking an overlay. Dance With Fate might be the biggest win pool overlay of the legit players. And he looks awesome in the flesh. INTENSE HOLIDAY: Welcome to your Derby Week steam of 2014. 32

No horse has attracted more attention from a.m. onlookers as we hit midweek than the Risen Star winner seeking to rebound from his Louisiana Derby runner-up.

The resume offers less shine than his works and gallops to be fair. The best horses he‟s beaten are Vicar‟s in Trouble & Commanding Curve, both of which rate in the 20-1 to 30-1 range for me in fair He‟s got a couple of beaten odds for the Derby. Each time Kentucky Derby favorites on the matched against what we thought first line of his pedigree with sire were the better horses of his crop, Harlan‟s Holiday and damsire he‟s come up short, while never Unbridled‟s Song, so he should be embarrassed. So, it‟s reasonable no stranger to attention this time that a horse who does not need to of year. make up that many lengths can do so if the light bulb has switched on. This wouldn‟t the Bettors must now first 2-for-8 horse determine to be draped in whether he‟s a roses, lest we 40-watt or a 100forget horses like watt illuminator. Alysheba weren‟t This horse has exactly win grown on me machines going throughout the into the first spring, but you Saturday in May. can‟t help but feel Alysheba was 2that Mike Smith‟s for-10 across the big-race presence wire prior, DQ‟d may be lost on in the Blue Grass, this colt as he so really eligible leaves for for a N1X Hoppertunity. Mike Smith's big-race penchant allowance. The John Velazquez is included last year's Oaks stunner a Hall of Famer and a point is that on Pletcher’s Princess of Sylmar. great rider, but Intense Holiday could progress into Smith‟s big-race being something very good as penchant of late seems to raise morning raves possibly tip toward, him to another league vs. all but now he must deliver. jockeys not named Stevens. 33

Intense Holiday very well could win the Kentucky Derby. But I feel more comfortable slotting him underneath without Smith, and will use him in a vast amount of exotic wagers in that fashion. DANZA (right): By any indication, the Arkansas Derby‟s out-ofnowhere performance has not zapped this colt heading into the big one. He continues to train to rave reviews and would have to be considered more likely blossoming than bouncing. So, if Danza is for real, then what in the heck do we do with him on Saturday? He‟s still lightly raced even by today‟s standards with 4 career starts. Big Brown had just 3 outings prior and Animal Kingdom 4, so it‟s not without recent precedence. But common sense also tells you that it‟s not the best course of action. The brilliant risers short on foundation also have found some Derby exotics love. Think horses like Bodemeister and Curlin, not coincidentally also dominant winners of the Arkansas Derby. Both ran tremendous races against the obstacles of foundation in Louisville and went on to validate that form at Pimlico. If that history and common sense collide again, it would stand to reason that Danza

very well could be your early bird Preakness look-see. His daddy (Street Boss) was a sprinter and his damsire a miler (French Deputy), and a slow pace in the Arkansas Derby allowed him to rocket home late like a good thing. Can he muster that same kind of late pizzazz on this pedigree if he has to chase a faster pace? Answer that question and you determine Danza‟s starring or supporting role in Derby 140. I respect how he‟s training and think he‟s going to run even better than he did in the Arkansas Derby; the arc is forward. But this could be a brilliant middle-distance horse who hits the wall in deep stretch and pleads to hold on for a minor share this time around at Churchill. MEDAL COUNT: I dig Dale Romans; I won‟t lie. For many years, I‟ve been assigned to him as the daily notes writer for the Derby 34

and Oaks. I‟ve learned a lot by chit-chatting with him in the clocker‟s stand and at his barn and get the feeling he‟s got a real grasp on these big races. He‟s learned what works, what doesn‟t, which times owners pushed him toward races and which times he pushed the right horse to the right spot. When Dale (right) says Medal Count is his best chance ever to win the Derby, friends, it‟s worth a listen. He‟s not a bulletin-board filler. And he‟s had a penchant for the Derby super in recent years with Shackleford, Paddy O‟ Prado and Dullahan. I picked Medal Count to win last year‟s Breeders‟ Cup Juvenile to no avail, but I like the fact that a strong 2YO on my radar in November not only still rates a puncher‟s chance in May, but has blossomed since then. His oldschool run through Keeneland with 2 stakes in 8 days harkens back to a tougher time in racing. I‟m no vet or breed expert, but my intuition

tells me market forces have as much to do with today‟s horses not running as often as they once did as much as anything physical. Can horses like Medal Count keep pounding out races every 8 days? Of course not. That‟s the definition of form cycle – they‟ll need time in and out of their best form and he‟ll have a wellearned vacation to recuperate when the time is right. But right now, he‟s running exceptionally well and training in a manner that has an Eclipse Award-winning trainer very pleased. That counts for something in my book of tough decisions. Medal Count sits very close to my cusp of win contenders, and, at the right price, might get there on a value play. UPDATE: With scratch of Hoppertunity & more pace likely now with Pablo Del Monte in, I've slid Medal Count to win contender. 35

WICKED STRONG (above): The Wood champ figures to be the second choice in the wagering from the drumbeats I hear among public handicappers all pushing him as the best closer in a pace many are projecting to collapse. New Yorkers always take more than their fair share of the pools – given local horseplayers‟ vast pride and dollars that permeate the circuit. As silly as it sounds, he‟s got a great Derby name and story – named for victims of the Boston Marathon bombing, and that gets bet in the win pool by the casual masses. Whether this all adds up to an underlay or fair odds on Wicked Strong remains to be seen.

Based on past performances and race shape, I would slot him about 3rd or 4th wagering choice in the race if ranking them straight up. That would project out to 8-1 in a 20horse field with a standout favorite based on history. I don‟t think you‟ll see that in the win pool, so he‟s a horse you‟ll want to watch the exotics will-pays and consider daily doubles from the Oaks or Turf Classic. I like most everything about him other than the expected price. At 2, he grabbed my attention in the Remsen when I thought he may have been best in a race shape that didn‟t work for him. And I‟ve learned to excuse horses who don‟t handle the speedway at Gulfstream when they come north and have success, ala Sea Hero in 1993. As I‟ve written before, Wicked Strong reminds me a lot of that past colt blanketed in roses. He‟s deserving of “Win Contenders” inclusion on most any list, including mine – but you can't have 'em all! 37

GENERAL A ROD: I‟ve wanted to pull the trigger on this horse all year, but his tendency to pull himself up in races and not fight through the wire worries me that he can‟t get the big prize. On pedigree, there‟s no reason he can‟t get 10 furlongs and he ran well over the Churchill track in the fall – though close CD followers know the cuppy, loose footing in the fall meet differs greatly from the tight, watered, hard-packed track we get Derby Week and during the spring-summer meet. Still, it can‟t hurt to have had some positive experience over the oval. General a Rod never runs a bad race and will keep soldiering when others are retreating. That‟s a wonderful recipe to get a pretty big slice of the pie, but I have to lean to others who‟ve shown more will to win. And while jockey Joel Rosario is the defending Derby champ, he hasn‟t looked the same since coming back from injury last year and we‟ve already chronicled trainer Maker‟s recent struggles as a thorny handicapping hurdle. Even though I want to pick him on top and press the hero button, those factors are enough to make my sensibilities drop him a notch and instead use underneath in the exotics.

Win Contenders: UPDATE: SCRATCHED HOPPERTUNITY (above): News broke Thursday morning of his scratch due to a reported foot bruise. Trainer Bob Baffert remains hopeful he still can make the Preakness. Hoppertunity was my original third choice in Countdown for Derby 140. The scratch draws in from the alsoeligible list PABLO DEL MONTE (not on my tickets), perhaps the most blazing sprint speed of this field and really changes the pace. As we wrote in Week 4 of the Countdown season: While it is productive to scout in January, it is March that matters. Derby / Preakness winners since 2003 are 5-for-8 combined in Jan., 7-for-11 in Feb., an astounding 17-for23 in March and 9-for-17 in April. 38

So who were March‟s big winners? 2014 March Winners of Note California Chrome, San Felipe Hoppertunity, Rebel (OUT) Vicar‟s in Trouble, Louisiana Derby Samraat, Gotham We Miss Artie, Spiral Chitu, Sunland Derby Looking at that table, things tilt to California Chrome as the most likely Derby and/or Preakness winner from my eye. From the pace dynamic of the Derby, Pablo Del Monte would make it tougher on any horse who wants to be near the lead. That makes California Chrome's trip potentially quicker early on, and should be music to the ears of folks backing closers like Medal Count, Dance With Fate and Commanding Curve. Where Danza, Wicked Strong and Candy Boy find themselves in the pace mix is a bit more unclear than some of those defined closers listed above. But the scratch of Hoppertunity as a leading, viable contender may have even a bigger impact on how the Derby plays out if Pablo Del Monte assumes his spot in the lineup because of the pace dynamic.

CALIFORNIA CHROME: We were the first ones to unveil that this historic Derby favorite carries arguably the most dominant streak ever to hit Louisville. No horse since at least 1906 – maybe ever – has come into the Kentucky Derby off of 4 straight wins by 5 or more lengths. That‟s worth pausing and thinking about, folks. As a serious horseplayer, of course you‟re not playing him to win at 52 or 3-1 odds and feeling good about things in a 20-horse field. No horse is worth less than 5-1 to win when facing 19 rivals in this crazy environment. But to flippantly toss California Chrome or any Derby favorite just because of price fails to recognize the importance of exotic wagers. Remember, Orb won last year‟s Derby and keyed a trifecta that paid $3500 for a buck. Ashado and Smarty Jones returned $60.20 on a 2004 Oaks-Derby double that you wouldn‟t believe if you didn‟t go back and look it up. Even Wise Dan to Orb last year turned that 5-1 shot into a $19.80 double. There are ways to use favorites if you feel they are best. The Derby chalk is 5-for-14 since 2000, a win % right on cue with 39

any racing meet in the country. Finding flaws with California Chrome (right) because you remember a 21-year drought between Spectacular Bid and Fusaichi Pegasus is living in the past. By all means, attack with someone else in the win pool; but dismiss the favorite from your exotic wagers at your own peril. He will heavily weighted on top in a large amount of my exotic tickets. I‟ve spent much of the space here on wagering strategies and little on the horse, California Chrome. That‟s because I simply don‟t see any remarkable flaws. You might knock his pedigree if not for the fact he‟s already run 10 times and won 4 straight route stakes in blowout fashion in fast times. You might think he‟ll be softened up by a fast pace, if not for a proven set of running lines that have shown he‟s won from off-the-pace, too. You might think he‟s vulnerable because he‟s from the west coast, until you remember the west ran 12 in the Derby just 2 years ago and then 1-2-3 in the Preakness 2

weeks after that. For every stereotypical flaw, there‟s a reasonable response that tells you he‟s answered that question. Victor Espinoza might succumb to the pressure, except that he‟s 1 of 5 jockeys in the last 50 years to win the Derby the hardest way possible – wire to wire. And, true, Art Sherman is 77 with no Derby training experience. Then again, 7 of 10 trainers to open the decade of the 2000s had never raced for the roses prior either. California Chrome is going to run his race Saturday. Your job is to figure out if anyone can top that, or whom you want to use along with him. I‟ve got 1 to consider… 40

CANDY BOY: Countdown regulars this season know what I think of this horse, who leaped high into my consideration off his maiden win in late fall at Hollywood Park. Following his Lewis Memorial win in February, he rose to No. 1 in my rankings and held that spot for 8 weeks until California Chrome wrestled it away with undeniable force. The question with Candy Boy coming out of the Santa Anita Derby third was pretty simple: Is he heading the wrong way? Most on-track observers have lauded the training of Candy Boy

since arriving in Louisville, and he got to town a week before California Chrome to acclimate to the surroundings. Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens flew in for a workout Saturday, back out Sunday to ride at Santa Anita and showed the kind of commitment you love to see this time of year. Stevens admits heâ&#x20AC;&#x;s blown the ride twice on Candy Boy, moving too soon in the Hollywood Futurity when storming to the front on the backstretch â&#x20AC;&#x201C; only to be overtaken by 2YO champ Shared Belief. And, in the Santa Anita Derby, Stevens 41

and trainer John Sadler both have surmised that chasing close to the pace and keeping California Chrome in his early crosshairs left him gassed late in his first start in 2 months. The tactics will be to take back early – especially from post 18 – and time the move so Candy Boy gets the late candy. That could prove a challenge as all 3 of Stevens‟ Kentucky Derby wins were with horses within early touch – Winning Colors on the engine, Thunder Gulch about 4 lengths off it, and Silver Charm, who was in the mix throughout. And Stevens‟ most self-criticized ride came aboard the closer Point Given, who moved too soon in 2001 in the Derby and came up empty late. It may have cost him the Triple Crown as he never lost again. The lessons learned by Stevens and the patient training of Sadler

need to conspire to give Candy Boy his best chance to make a winning run from the turn to the eighthpole, where California Chrome won‟t be waiting for competition. Candy Boy will need to keep driving late like he did in the Lewis back in January if he wants to collar this deserving favorite. Jeremy Plonk’s 2014 Kentucky Derby Selections

WIN: CALIFORNIA CHROME PLACE: CANDY BOY SHOW: MEDAL COUNT For Jeremy’s wagering strategies see Saturday’s HP NOW BUZZ!

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VICTOR VICTORIOUS ON THE LEAD AGAIN? By Jerry Shottenkirk Easy game . . . 6 or 7 horses go out for the lead like thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s no tomorrow and fall apart just as you drew it up on paper. To be sure, that happens more times than not in the Kentucky Derby, which marks the first time 3-year-olds attempt 1 1/4 miles. But over the past few decades, some of the finest performances have been on the front end, most notably Spend a Buck in 1985, Winning Colors in 1988 and War Emblem (pictured) in â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;02. There have been others, but these firmly have been planted in our memory. 45

ANATOMY OF A HEIST Each had a jockey committed to the lead. There was no other option. Angel Cordero, Jr. and Spend a Buck had the lead at once, and a reserved-in-hand journey is not what either had in mind. Spend a Buck was basically five lengths in front all the way around the track.

However, should others balk at taking an early lead, Espinoza has the horse beneath him that would oblige.

War Emblem won the first two legs of the Triple Crown and then broke poorly and failed to take up an interest in the Belmont. He proved one dimensional. This time around, more than just a few observers Winning Colors’ wire-to-wire win – believe Espinoza has the chance to at least in be close up Wire-to-Wire Derby Winners (Last 50 Years) style – was with less than Year Horse Choice Field Half California surprising. 2002 War Emblem 9th 18 47 Chrome, 2nd 17 46 4/5 Jockey Gary 1988 Winning Colors 1985 Spend a Buck 2nd 13 45 4/5 but instead Stevens 1976 Bold Forbes 2nd 9 45 4/5 may take a 1972 Riva Ridge 1st 16 47 3/5 gave the bit off the 1st 15 46 1/5 filly the go- 1966 Kauai King ahead to move into her mostearly leader, but not more than a comfortable way of going, cruised length or two. with a clear lead and then held off There’s speed, and then there’s the late charge of Forty Niner. lone speed. Spend a Buck, Winning Colors and War Emblem were the Victor Espinoza rode War Emblem latter. Unless many horses are – and will have the opportunity to taken back early, that won’t be the record something similar when he case this year. While speed can is aboard favored California mean death to chances in a 10Chrome on Saturday. Like War furlong race, it does have some Emblem, California Chrome has Derby advantage. In a 20-horse speed, but appears to be in such a field, being on the front end means groove that he likely will be able to an avoidance of traffic problems. set off the pace if needed. 46

KENTUCKY DERBY 140 PACE According to the BRIS numbers, California Chrome (pictured prior to his final workout 4-25 at Los Al) had the best overall speed in his last race and has the most back speed from other races, but it’s not a given that he’ll be in front. He battled on the front end and drew off in the Santa Anita Derby and was in front from the start in the San Felipe. However, there were three occasions when he stalked and then drew off. Those were in California-bred races, and there’s a chance open company would not as readily come back to him. Samraat and jockey Jose Ortiz would not be a surprise in front. Ortiz has kept him a length or two

off the pace in his last two. Samraat was second behind Wicked Strong in the Wood and had won all five races leading up to that. He was a clear early leader in his first three, so speed is available if Ortiz asks the question.

In early pace numbers, Samraat, Pablo Del Monte and California Chrome had the top BRIS figs, but translated to what could happen out on the track, 9 of them were about 2 lengths apart. Post will have a lot to do with it, but California Chrome’s best chance might not be on the front 47

end, or at least not more than a been go, go, go in Florida, and the length or so off the lead. His Santa results have been good. He won Anita Derby performance was his the Fountain Of Youth after best. It was at the battling for the lead longest distance throughout and he’s faced, and lost the Florida it was, indeed, a Derby by a neck. standout on Gulfstream paper. He put played to speed, away a and we’ll have to challenger after see how that three-quarters in translates at 1:10 4/5 and Churchill. But the went the last 3 distance, not the Gary Stevens won on the front furlongs in :36 pace, could be his with Winning Colors, but 3/5 after the biggest battle. hopes Candy Boy can rally. early test. We won’t see a Many do their best out front. Spend a Buck, but we could see a Vicar’s in Trouble won the Winning Colors or War Emblem in Louisiana Derby in wire-to-wire style. With so much speed, some fashion. Samraat was no more jockeys will take back – hoping to than 2 lengths behind early when not fry their chances in a speed he was 2nd behind Wicked Strong battle. If that’s the case, one may in the Wood; Danza was 2 lengths not have to go so fast to get there. off the early lead before charging If the pace is too fast, many wait in through for his surprisingly the wings to pick up the pieces. authoritative Arkansas Derby win. That’s your hope if you are leaning Wildcat Red appears committed toward Dance With Fate, to going for the early lead, Wicked Strong, Intense although he passed a horse in 2 Holiday, Hoppertunity, Candy sprints. His modus operandi has Bay or even Tapiture. 48

It's Friday afternoon, May 2, and all your heavy lifting is done. You've finished handicapping, have your Kentucky Derby pick and just want to sit back and relax with friends, watch the Oaks and talk some Derby shop. As the afternoon unfolds you see, for the first time, the current odds for the Derby—and you're stunned. That seemingly live longshot you liked so much, the one who was going to shock the world at 30-1, is sitting at a laughable 14-1. As an experienced gambler, you know you shouldn't take 14-1 when your horse is a deserved 301 who needs to run the race of his life to compete, let alone win the world’s most famous race. Hopes dashed, drawing board out, you

wonder what you're going to do. But worry not, all is not lost. There’s a bet for you, one that can still turn your horse into the 30-1 you seek. Actually, the Oaks-Derby Double can turn him into an even bigger price. Originated in 2001, the Oaks-Derby Double caught fire quickly and now routinely has a pool in excess of $2 million. It’s become popular among savvy players looking for an edge for many reasons, and at the top of the list is the fact that you can see the projected payoffs as the day progresses, which gives you ample opportunity to wager accordingly. How to Play I like to attack the Oaks-Derby Double under a few different scenarios. First, when there’s a strong favorite in the Oaks who 50

is likely to win about 80% of the time. I like to link that horse with my top few selections in the Derby, usually staggering my bets in terms of preference. Second, I like to play aggressively when the Oaks is wide open and I have the Derby narrowed down to a scant, few horses. And again, I’m looking to stagger my bets in terms of preference. Basically, what I’m trying to do is two-fold. First and foremost, I’m trying to maximize an opinion I have in the Derby because the days of getting fair value on deserving longshots are long gone. Mine That Bird won the Derby in 2009 and was 50-1. On paper, he was 250-1. But with so much money spread out in the pools and with your Sunday school teacher, grandmother and next door neighbor all jumping in and playing the longshots, you’re just not going to get the price you should in what is a 20-horse crapshoot. Second, I’m trying to take the strain off my Saturday

Derby bet. If I’m live in the double going into the Derby, I don’t have to make a win bet on my horse (s). I can focus my attention on other bets, or even play some backups, depending on how much of a payoff I’m alive to. While some might play a 10x10 block double and hope for chaos, that’s not for me. That’s giving away too much leverage and not trusting your opinion. A handicapper should be confident in his or her abilities and should play accordingly. If I love a longshot in the Derby, I might hit the ―all-ball‖ in the Oaks into my horse, but I’ll never play a block double with both races. There are better ways to spend.

The Stats Don’t Lie This will be the 14th Oaks-Derby Double, and in 11 of the previous 13 years, the payoff exceeded the $2 win parlay. You don’t have to worry about being cheated at the window. 51

ALL-TIME OAKS-DERBY DOUBLE PAYOFFS Oaks Winner

$2 win

Derby Winner

$2 win

$2 DD

’13 Princess of Sylmar

$79.60

Orb *

$12.80

$621.40

’12 Believe You Can

$29.60

I’ll Have Another

$32.60

$731.20

’11 Plum Pretty

$14.60

Animal Kingdom

$43.80

$345.60

’10 Blind Luck

$4.60 *

Super Saver

$18.00

$56.60

’09 Rachel Alexandra

$2.60 *

Mine That Bird

$103.20 $237.40

’08 Proud Spell

$8.80 *

Big Brown *

$6.80

$37.80

’07 Rags to Riches

$5.00 *

Street Sense *

$11.80

$23.80

’06 Lemons Forever

$96.20

Barbaro

$14.20

$890.20

’05 Summerly

$11.20

Giacomo

$102.60 $595.20

’04 Ashado

$6.60 *

Smarty Jones *

$10.20

$60.20

’03 Bird Town

$38.40

Funny Cide

$27.60

$421.80

’02 Farda Amiga

$42.00

War Emblem

$43.00

$1395.40

’01 Flute

$8.80

Monarchos

$23.00

$79.20

I made my biggest Oaks-Derby bet in 2007. Sadly, it wasn’t a winning one, but it opened my eyes to the power of the bet. I fancied Any Given Saturday in the Derby for Todd Pletcher, who had a solid, if unspectacular, campaign and was coming off a flat 3rd-place finish in the Wood Memorial.

In a 20-horse Derby field that included Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin, I thought it was reasonable to expect 25-1. So you can imagine my disgust when I saw the early odds Friday and Any Given Saturday was merely a 14-1 proposition. 52

So I researched the OaksDerby Double probables, mostly because I thought Rags To Riches (pictured right) could not lose. Linked to Any Given Saturday, the double was approaching $80. Essentially I was turning 14-1 into 39-1. Sure, there’s risk when you have to win the first leg to be alive to the second, but that’s why they call it gambling, folks. I hammered the double and patted myself on the back when Rags To Riches won like she was 1-5 and not the 3-2 she offered. As for Any Given Saturday...well...he didn’t win the Derby, but I had found my wager.

When to Fire If I can dip into my former, semiprofessional poker playing mindset, we should only be betting when we get the best of it and passing when we get the worst of it. The results almost don’t even matter as long as we continually play when the odds are stacked in our favor. If

you believe in your ability, the money will always come your way in the long run when you take the best of it and pass on the worst of it. Any Given Saturday ended up going off at 13-1 in the Derby and was 8th. I got him at close to 40-1. Another great example came in 2010, when Super Saver won the Derby under Calvin Borel. The newly minted Hall of Fame jockey has become a legend in the Derby, and rightfully so, as he’s won it three times. In 2010, he picked up the mount on Super Saver after winning on Mine That Bird at 50-1 the year before. Super Saver was one of the Winter Book Derby 53

favorites, but failed at short prices vs. historically weak opposition in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby and G1 Arkansas Derby.

won’t get fair value on the two longshots I like in the Derby – Medal Count and Candy Boy. Both hail from high-powered barns that garner a lot of attention, but are, If you still were a believer, you on paper, simply not good or fast probably wanted 15-1 or higher on enough to win this year. I think Super Saver. But with Pletcher and they do have some things in their Borel, you had to settle for a vastly favor, so I’m willing to overlook underlaid 8-1. Super Saver was, in how ―slow‖ they are on paper. But fact, the second if I were to bet them choice in a field Betting the Kentucky Derby is solo Saturday, I’d of 20 – yet hard enough, but if you go in want in excess of 25hadn’t won a without a solid plan of attack, 1 in the win pool. I race since you’re going to be that much can’t see that November. But if more behind the eight-ball. happening in a Derby you did a little that has a solid homework Friday favorite and then afternoon, with potential Oaks lock basically 19 others who are similar Blind Luck a huge 6-5 favorite in a on paper. 14-filly field, you would have seen I’ll be playing a heavy double with that the double into Super Saver Untapable into Medal Count (my was paying in the area of $56, essentially 27-1 (the actual winning top choice) and a lighter one into Candy Boy. I also will wheel the payoff was $56.60). Instead of 8-1 rest of the Oaks fillies for the you could have gotten a much minimum with my two longshots in more appetizing 27-1 by scouring the Oaks-Derby Double pool. the Derby. Again, this is a scenario where I’ll be getting all the best of What it Means This Year it. If heavy chalk Untapable goes Untapable is a deserving 2014 down, then I’ll be alive to a pair of Oaks favorite who is a very likely huge payoffs into the Derby. winner. On the back end, I fear I - HPN 54

BETTING THE BIG ONE Jeremy Plonk & Brian Nadeau offer intra-race and multi-race plans of attack for the Derby.

in a 20-horse field (vs. just 720 in what we commonly call a “full” 10horse field in our daily betting).

or many, the first Saturday in May offers a chest-thumping chance to say, “I picked the Derby winner.” And while that’s swell and all, the average winning payoff since 1995 has been $32.30 – juicy, but not an-entire-roll-ofpaper-towels juicy.

Orb scored at 5-1, and well-backed Revolutionary ran third at 6-1. The tri-maker was Golden Soul at 34-1 in second – and he was rather easy to get. You need not memorize Ainsley’s Guide to Handicapping to use an “all” button. You simply need an opinion on a few horses you care to back, and a modest budget. Find 4 horses you like in the Derby – 2 who can win, and 2 that look more like bottom-feeders for the exotics.

The trifecta was introduced to the menu in 1995, and has provided an average payoff of $13,100 for a deuce. To borrow a phrase, it’s the “quicker-picker-upper.” Giacomo’s 50-1 stunner and $133k resulting tri skews those averages, so discounting his contribution, the tri still has averaged $6432 for $2. Looking at the “rather average” 2013 Derby trifecta return of $6925 with the FAVORITE winning, a quizzical horseplayer soon realizes that it only takes one to make this three-horse wager sing. That’s because 6,840 unique combos exist

This table offers some affordable ticket structures that can land you that Derby trifecta. – Jeremy Plonk

$.50 min/ based on 20 starters. 1,2 with ALL with 1,2 = $18 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL = $18 1 with ALL with 2,3,4 = $27 1 with 2,3,4 with ALL = $27 1,2 with ALL with 1,2,3 = $36 1,2 with 1,2,3 with ALL = $36 1,2 with ALL with 1,2,3,4 = $54 1,2 with ALL with 1,2,3,4 = $54 55

xotics bets often change lives in the Derby. But maybe you’re also a bit intimidated by them and aren’t sure just what or how to play.

Obviously it depends on your working budget. But when you’re dealing with 20 horses, you must identify a few key ones with which you’re willing to go to war. The Derby, more than any other race during the year, is a spot where you need to draw a line in the sand and simply say to yourself, “I’m OK with being wrong because I know I can’t use them all.” Simple math says the more horses you use, the more it’s going to cost. So what I like to do is start by identifying who can win – and who can’t – when I’m playing horizontal exotics (pick 3s, pick 4s, etc.). Sticking with personal preference, I like to play the pick 4 that ends with the Derby. Consistently the pool tops $2 million, and it gives you the most bang for your buck since you can play it for $0.50. So for me, I’ll be looking at the horses that fit my criteria and can win the Derby. The neat thing about the

horizontal exotics is you need not worry about the 60-1 who could muck up 3rd and ruin it all. If they can’t win, they are easily tossed. I like to narrow the Derby and use only a select few, so I’ll take the same plan of attack into the pick 4. I’ll identify who I like and then try and get alive to them. As for the other 3 races, I’m not going to break the bank just to ensure I’m alive, but with $2M-plus in the pool, I’ll leave more margin for error than normal – while also using some backup tickets. The beauty of the pick 4 is that if your horse is 22-1 on the board for the Derby, he could be 2-3 times that figure by comparison in his impact on the pick 4 pools. Below are affordable 50-cent pick 4 tickets under $40, based on at least 1 single somewhere. You can mix and match the scenarios based on your opinions on the legs of the wagers. – Brian Nadeau 5x4x2x1 6x4x2x1 8x4x2x1 4x4x4x1

= = = =

$20 $24 $32 $32

8x3x3x1 = $36 6x6x2x1 = $36 10x4x2x1 = $40 10x8x1x1 = $40 56

Black-Eyed Susan Day (May 16, Pimlico)

Preakness Day (May 17, Pimlico)

R1-noon ET

R1-10:45 am ET

R2-12:30

R2-11:18

R3-1:00

R3-11:53

R4-1:30

R4-12:30

R5-2:01

R5-1:09 ($350k Pk4)

R6-2:34

R6-1:50

R7-3:05

R7-2:33

R8-3:36 (Pk 5 begins)

R8-3:14

R9-4:16 ($250k Pk4)

R9-4:00 ($1.5m Pk4)

R10-4:47 Blk-Eyed Sn

R10-4:42

R11-5:21

R11-5:24 Dixie Stakes

R12-5:52 Pim Special

R12-6:18 Preakness

R13-6:22

R13-7:08

NBC Sports coverage for Preakness 139 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; all times eastern Preakness Classics: Fri, 3-4p, NBCSN Black-Eyed Susan: Fri, 4-5p, NBCSN Preakness Undercard: Sat, 1-4:30p, NBCSN Preakness & Dixie: Sat, 4:30-6:30p, NBC Post-Race Show: Sat, 6:30-7:30p, NBCSN 57

HANDICAPPING HINTS By Ed DeRosa, BRIS

As you might expect, the handicapping factors that are the best indicator of success also happen to be the ones that get bet the most—especially at an “A-list” track such as Churchill Downs. Prime Power is Brisnet.com’s single-best indicator of success in an upcoming race. This proprietary number blends handicapping factors to rank horses in a particular race. It’s good at picking winners at a rate a little better than the wagering public (i.e., its win percentage is higher than the favorites percentage), but Prime Power alone is not enough for profit.

The top Prime Power figure in 492 races at Churchill Downs in 20122013 (maiden races & other races with first-time starters not included) had an Impact Value of 2.2, meaning it wins more than twice what you would expect, but the ROI is a dreadful -19% or about the same as takeout. So if you want to find value, consider the 2nd and 3rd-ranked Prime Power horses, which have an IV of 1.5 and an ROI of just -5%. As a Churchill player, this gives me the confidence to want to use longer-priced horses ranked in the top 3 in multi-race wagers and not necessarily feel like I have to use the favorite. Speed Ratings follow a similar track with a 1.70 Impact Value on the best last-out Speed Rating but an ROI of just -27.5% A horse who towers in Prime Power and/or Speed Ratings might make a good single or key on top of an exotic bet but otherwise rarely offers value at Churchill. The good news is that Prime Power works just as well on off tracks as it does on fast dirt or turf and maybe even a little better because the ROI on the top Prime Power pick on an off track is just -3%. 58

There’s more good news on fast dirt races: If the top Prime Power horse has at least a 5-point then s/he wins 40% of the time with a +1% ROI.A 40% win rate and +ROI makes these horses MUST USES in all exotics even if you’re not thrilled with the win price because of other factors. One fun thing we can do with the ALL-Ways database is limit the output to winners of a certain price. Looking at ONLY non-maiden races with $20+ winners in 20122013, we’re left with 69 races, and neither Prime Power nor Brisnet

Speed are solid indicators, meaning if you want prices at Churchill you definitely have to look beyond these traditional factors, and one powerful variable is back speed, meaning the top Brisnet.com Speed Rating in the past 10 starts. So if you see a horse rounding back into form at a nice price at CD, you can play with confidence. BRIS is the official past performance provider to Night School!

Around the Turn: Handicapping 870-Yard Races By Denis Blake Even though American Quarter Horse racing is similar in many ways to Thoroughbred racing, some handicappers are thrown off by the biggest and most obvious difference â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quarter Horses run down the straightaway, most commonly at distances from 250 to 440 yards, while Thoroughbreds go around at least one turn. There is a bit of common and familiar ground, however, in the 870-yard Quarter Horse race, a contest just short of four furlongs that is run around the turn. While the typical Quarter Horse card might only have one or two â&#x20AC;&#x153;hookâ&#x20AC;? races, these events can offer great betting opportunities by following some basic principles. The most important aspects of handicapping an 870-yard race are post position and track configuration. For an 870-yard race on a one-mile oval, such as Remington Park or the three major Texas tracks, Lone Star Park, Sam Houston Race Park and Retama Park, the starting gate is set very

close to the turn, so horses breaking from posts 6, 7 and 8 are at a distinct disadvantage because they are likely to get hung wide (eight horses is generally the maximum field size at 870 yards for competitive reasons). Horses coming from posts 1, 2 and 3 on a one-mile oval always have a big advantage because they are apt to save ground along or near the rail. At tracks that are less than a mile around, the distance from the gate to the turn is greater, giving the outside horses more distance to either flash speed and get over toward the rail or tuck in just behind horses before hitting the turn. Post position is less important at those tracks. 60

The recent expansion of Los you will see horses come from off Alamitos includes a one-mile oval the pace, particularly if they can to accommodate Thoroughbred save ground along the rail and racing and training, but currently make a run in the stretch, you will the 870-yard races at that track find that the winner most often are run on the original 5/8th-mile shows speed right out of the gate. configuration. Ruidoso Downs, home of the All American Futurity, Many Thoroughbred handicappers has a 7/8th-mile oval. Delta Downs are hesitant to play a horse has a 6-furlong oval, while the stretching out around two turns for other Louisiana tracks -the first time, such as six furlongs Evangeline Downs, Fair Grounds to a mile, as those horses often and Louisiana Downs -- are all one need a route race before showing mile. Knowing the circumference of their best at a new distance, even the track you are when they are bred for playing, and the it. But in Quarter tracks in the past Horse racing, it is not performances of uncommon to see a the entrants, is horse succeed in his important. Many first 870-yard race. tracks offer 870yard post position Check the work tab stats in the for a horse making his Click to watch video! program or online 870-yard debut. A that can be very helpful. workout around the turn, often at 660 yards (three furlongs), is At one-mile tracks, watch for generally required before a horse is horses that struggled in their last allowed to race 870 yards for the start or two from an outside post first time. Anything under 36 that are moving to the 1, 2 or 3 seconds for 660 yards is pretty post. Replays, which can be found quick and could indicate the horse for free at www.qracingvideo.com, can succeed at 870, especially if he can also be an invaluable tool to has shown early speed on the look for wide or troubled trips. straightaway. Horses often get â&#x20AC;&#x153;braveâ&#x20AC;? in their first 870-yard race Early speed is another key to after making the lead and forget to success in distance races. While stop. On the flip side, you will 61

sometimes see horses regress in their second 870-yard start after making a big splash in their debut around the turn. Just as you would with Thoroughbreds, check the trainer’s win percentage at 870 yards and with horses racing at the distance for the first time. At some tracks, Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses compete against each other in 870-yard (and occasionally 1,000-yard) races, which can be tricky to handicap. It might be tempting to look at the half-mile (880-yard) fractional time for a Thoroughbred to approximate his time at 870 yards, but it must be noted that the two breeds are timed differently. In a Thoroughbred race, there is a “run-up” before the timer starts, meaning that the starting gate is placed behind the actual point where the timer starts. The length of the run-up varies by track and distance, but Thoroughbreds are often at full speed when the timer starts, which obviously is going to make their half-mile clocking time appear quicker compared to a Quarter Horse coming out of an 870-yard race, in which the timer starts the moment the gates open.

AQHA Racing Oval Sizes Track Delta Downs Evangeline Fair Grounds Hialeah Louisiana Downs Los Alamitos Prairie Meadows Remington Park Retama Park Ruidoso Downs Sam Houston Zia Park

Oval 6 furlongs 1 mile 1 mile 1 1/8 miles 1 mile 5 furlongs 1 mile 1 mile 1 mile 7 furlongs 1 mile 1 mile

Quarter Horses are generally faster than Thoroughbreds out of the gate, but in deep stretch the stamina edge of the Thoroughbred breed will sometimes kick in. You might only get a few chances each week to bet on an 870-yard Quarter Horse race, but you can make the most of those opportunities by studying the post position, track configuration and replays while also looking for horses that can win at first asking around the turn.

Denis Blake is one of the American Quarter Horse Association’s Racing Aces and is also editor of Southern Racehorse and The Horsemen’s Journal magazines. He formerly worked as a handicapper for Daily Racing Form. 62

By Ken Warkentin

Yes, it was a harsh winter. But the next time you’re looking to get hot – going for some green betting the trotters at the Meadowlands – just think orange, as in Team Orange Crush.

Since arriving from Chicago in 2006, the husband and wife team of Andy and Julie Miller have made a major impact at the Big M with a steady influx of talented trotters flying their orange, white and black colors.

Firmly established as top catch driver, Andy completed his eighth full season at the Meadowlands in 2013, finishing third in the standings. He’s the sport’s newest member of the 8,000 wins and $100 million clubs. Julie and her husband posted their second consecutive thirdplace finish in the trainer standings, and it was the fifth straight year their stable won over 100 races and $2 million overall. In 2013, they sent out their third Hambletonian finalist in Money On My Mind. Their stable star is Sevruga, Free For All winner of the Arthur J. Cutler Memorial and John Simpson Memorial. Other major wins came in the Super Bowl with Windsun Galliano and a New Jersey Sires Stakes Final with the Muscles Yankee filly Cee Bee Yes. Sevruga already has launched his 2014 campaign, winning his first start of the season in 1:52.1 on April 2 at Harrah’s Philadelphia, putting his career earnings at $891,066.

The Millers’ biggest claim to fame is Lucky Jim, the 2009 Older Trotter of the Year, who won 17 of 18 that season, including a world record of 1:50.1. He had a $1,930,402 career. One of Andy’s biggest career wins came with a trotting filly in the $750,000 Hambletonian Oaks when Creamy Mimi paid $27.60 in 2008. While the stakes season is dominated by names like Jimmy Takter, Jonas Czeryson and Trond Smedshammer, the Millers’ success with trotters has been season-long. They kicked off 2014 on a serious roll with Perfect Alliance, a revived four-year-old mare by prominent 64

New York sire Credit Winner. Coowned by Meadowlands Chairman Jeff Gural and CEO/General Manager Jason Settlemoir, Perfect Alliance romped in her first seven starts this season (through April 2), including a three-ply sweep of the Charles Singer Memorial Series. She set a stakes record of 1:52.2 in that final and was named the USTA’s February Horse of the Month. Perfect Alliance also was favored to win the Bobby Weiss Series at Pocono Downs. Gural’s Helios has won a couple races this season against C-level trotters at the Meadowlands for the Millers. With their special knack with trotters, the Orange Crush combo has made a specialty out of turning other people’s projects into winners. Temple Of Doom, Coraggioso (coowned by famed thoroughbred announcer Tom Durkin), Drift Away and Investor Volo are a few examples of

Miller successes this past winter. What’s more?  Bambino Glide won two divisions of the Horse and Groom Series and took a mark of 1:52.2.  Take The Money, a threeyear-old sister to their $625,250 winner Money On My Mind, was 4-for-4 in 2014 through the start of April. Now you get the drift. So, the next time you eye a trotting race at the Meadowlands, you likely will find a Team Orange Crush student fit, well-classified and ready for a winning effort.

- HPN

MORE WITH OUR TEAM Watch our Pimlico Weekend Previews during Preakness Week! Videos will be posted this month for racing May 16 and 17. And join us in the Preakness infield for Wagering 101! The Countdown to the Queen’s Plate weekly scouting report rolls on this month – accompanying Jeremy Plonk’s ninth season of Countdown to the Crown every Friday! Follow it through July 6, when HP NOW will be on-hand teaching the fans! Check out Night School co-host Steve Byk’s superlative daily magazine show for the news/newsmakers. Horse Player NOW’s Jeremy Plonk joins At The Races every Tuesday during the Night School season to preview the evening’s lesson. Capitol OTB handicapper Seth Merrow, founder of Equidaily.com, interviews HPN’s Brian Nadeau and Jeremy Plonk during regular weekly visits to this upstate New York and web-streamed telecast. Catch Night School co-host and HPN handicapper Caton Bredar as she covers the action coast-to-coast for HRTV.

Desert Code (SA), 3yo, 6.5F-T G3 Beaugay (Bel), f/m, 8.5F-T G3 Fort Marcy (Bel), 4&up, 9F-T Sir Bear (GP), 3yo, 8F Ballade (WO), f/m, 6F 4 G2 Honeymoon (SA), 3yof, 9F-T Drosselmeyer (Bel), 4&up, 10F Gold Fever (Bel), 3yo, 6F 6 Hasta La Vista (TuP), 3&up, 15F Point Given / Photos By Z

MAY 2014 1 Elusive Quality (Bel), 4&up, 7F 2 G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD), 3yof, 9F G1 La Troienne (CD), f/m, 8.5F G2 Alysheba (CD), 4&up, 8.5F G3 Eight Belles (CD), 3yof, 7F G3 CD Turf Spr (CD), 4&up, 5F-T Edgewood (CD), 3yof, 8.5F-T Affirmed Success (Bel), 3&up, 6F Tellike (Evd), f/m, 5F Golden Circle (PrM), 3yo, 6F 3 G1 G1 G1 G2

Kentucky Derby (CD), 3yo, 10F Turf Classic (CD), 4&up, 9FT Humana Distaff (CD), f/m, 7F American Turf (CD), 3yo, 8.5F-T

G2 CD Dst Turf Mile (CD), f/m, 8F-T

9 Eisenhower (PrM), 4&up, 6F 10 G2 Peter Pan (Bel), 3yo, 9F Diablo (Bel), 4&up, 6F G3 Laz Barrera (SA), 3yo, 7F Fury (WO), 3yof, 7F Texas Glitter (Crc), 3&up, 5F-T Unbridled Sydney (CD), f/m, 5F-T Golden Poppy (GG), f/m, 8.5F Big Drama (GP), 3&up, 6.5F Honey Ryder (GP), 3yof, 8F-T

Texas Stallion (LS), 3yof, 8F Texas Stallion (LS), 3yo, 8F Decathlon (Mth), 3&up, 6F John Wayne (PrM), 4&up, 6F -more-

G2 CD Handicap (CD), 4&up, 7F G2 Precisionist (SA), 3&up, 8.5F Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

11 G1 Man o’ War (Bel), 4&up, 11F-T G2 Ruffian (Bel), f/m, 8F G3 Westchester (Bel), 4&up, 8F License Fee (Bel), f/m, 6F G3 Vigil (WO), 4&up, 7F Alcatraz (GG), 3yo, 8F Inaugural (PID), 3yof, 6F Hastings (Emd), f/m, 6F

Angels Flight (SA), 3yof, 7F G3 Vagrancy (Bel), f/m, 6.5F Paradise Creek (Bel), 3yo, 7F-T G3 Red Bank (Mth), 3&up, 8F-T Keertana (CD), f/m, 11F-T Flying Pidgeon (GP), 3&up, 8F-T Queenston (WO), 3yof, 7F Lady Slipper (Cby), f/m, 6F Susan B Anthony (FL), f/m, 6F

12 Tom Ridge (PID), 3yo, 6F

18 G2 Adoration (SA), f/m, 8.5F G3 Selene (WO), 3yof, 8.5F Wait A While (Bel), 3yof, 7F-T Governor’s Hcp (Emd), 3&up, 6.5F

16 – HPNOW live at Pimlico G2 Black-Eyed Ssn (Pim), 3yof, 9F G3 Pimlico Spcl (Pim), 4&up, 9.5F Hilltop (Pim), 3yof, 8.5F-T McKay Turf Spr Pim), 3&up, 5F-T Miss Preakness (Pim), 3yof, 6F Skipat (Pim), f/m, 6F Rollicking (Pim), 2yo, 5F Kattegat’s Pride (Pim), f/m, 8.5F 10,000 Lakes (Cby), 3&up, 6F Bob Bryant (Prm), 3yof, 6F 17 – HPNOW live at Pimlico G1 Preakness (Pim), 3yo, 9.5F G2 Dixie (Pim), 3&up, 9F-T G3 Md Sprint (Pim), 3&up, 6F G3 Gallorette (Pim), f/m, 8.5F-T Sir Barton (Pim), 3yo, 8.5F The Very One (Pim), f/m, 5F-T Jimmy Murphy (Pim), 3yo, 8F-T Chick Lang (Pim), 3yo, 6F Dptd Testamony (Pim), 3&up, 8.5F G2 American (SA), 3&up, 8F-T

19 New Providence (WO), 3&up, 6F 21 Winter Melody (Del), f/m, 8.5F 24 G2 Whittingham (SA), 3&up, 10F-T G3 Arl Classic (AP), 3yo, 8.5F-T G3 Arl Matron (AP), f/m, 9F-T G3 Hanshin Cup (AP), 3&up, 8F-T G2 Sheepshd Bay (Bel), f/m, 11F-T G3 Louisville (CD), 3&up, 12F-T G3 Hendrie (WO), f/m, 6F Louisiana Legends Night (Evd) Memorial Hcp (Crc), 3&up, 8.5F Anka Germania (GP), f/m, 8F-T -more-

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

24 (continued) My Juliet (Prx), f/m, 6F Majestic Light (Mth), 3&up, 1m70y Prairie Express (Prm), 3&up, 6F Prairie Rose (Prm), f/m, 6F It’s Binn Too Long (CT), 3yof, 4.5F 25 G2 Nassau (WO), f/m, 8F-T Marine (WO), 3yo, 8.5F Wonder Again (Bel), 3yof, 9F-T Mizdirection (SA), f/m, 6.5F-T Mnmth Beach (Mth), f/m, 1m70y Auburn (Emd), 3yo, 6.5F 26 G1 Gamely (SA), f/m, 9F-T G3 Los Angeles (SA), 3&up, 6F G3 Lone Star Hcp (LS), 3&up, 8.5F G3 Winning Colors (CD), f/m, 6F G3 Poker (Bel), 4&up, 8F-T Jersey Girl (Bel) 3yof, 6F Pennine Ridge (Bel), 3yo, 9F G3 All American (GG), 3&up, 8F-T Miss Liberty (Mth), f/m, 8.5F-T Honor The Hero (Cby), 3&up, 5F-T Rasmussen (Prm), 3&up, 8.5F Wild Rose (Prim), f/m, 8.5F 28 Buddy Delp (Del), 3yo, 6.5F 30 Lyphard (Pen), f/m, 8.5F

31 G1 American Oaks (SA), 3yf, 10F-T G2 Californian (SA), 3&up, 9F Penn Mile (Pen), 3yo, 8F-T PA Gov’s Cup (Pen), 3&up, 5F-T Mountainview (Pen), 3&up, 9F Penn Oaks (Pen), 3yof, 8F Penn Dash (Pen), 3&up, 5F G3 Aristides (CD), 3&up, 6F Opening Verse (CD), f/m, 8.5F G2 Connaught Cup (WO), 3&up, 7F New York Showcase Day (Bel) Point of Entry (GP), 3&up, 12F-T Springfield (AP), 3yo, 8F Leave Me Alone (Crc), 3yof, 6F Ponche (Crc), 3&up, 6F U Can Do It (Crc), f/m, 6F Unbridled (Crc), 3yo, 6F John J. Reilly (Mth), 3&up, 6F Prairie Mile (Prm), 3yo, 8F Panthers (Prm), 3yof, 8F

Read Jeremy Plonk’s Countdown to the Crown every Friday – all the way through the Queen’s Plate on July 6 this year! Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian Triple Crown pursuits! Countdowntothecrown.com

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

May 17 – Preakness Day May 17 – Delaware Park opens May 17 – Will Rogers Downs closes May 20 – Online: Night School May 22 – Ruidoso Downs opens May 24 – Arapahoe Park opens May 27 – Online: Night School May 27 – Fort Erie opens June 4 – June HPN Mag release (Belmont draw day with latest information for the big day!)

May May May May May May May May May May May May May

1 – Belmont Park opens 2 – Kentucky Oaks Day 2 – Arlington Park opens 2 – Louisiana Downs opens 3 – Kentucky Derby Day 3 – Suffolk Downs opens 4 – Tampa Bay Downs closes 6 – Online: Night School 6 – Indiana Downs opens 6 – Turf Paradise closes 10 – Monmouth Park opens 11 – Presque Isle opens 13 – Online: Night School

May May May May May May

14 14 16 16 16 17

– – – – – –

Preakness Draw HPN Mag Preak Update Wagering 101 at Pimlico Black-Eyed Susan Day Canterbury Park opens Wagering 101 at Pimlico

Horse Player NOW hosts free, live Preakness.com chats May 16 and 17! OR Visit us in the Pimlico infield both days teaching in the Wagering 101 Tent! PLAY WITH OUR PROS.

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

G2 $400,000 DIXIE STAKES May 17, 2014

MAY RACE OF THE MONTH

Skyring upsets the ’13 Dixie under Gary Stevens. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE DIXIE STAKES: The last 2 winners of the Dixie stretched out from a 1-mile prep. Note that winners in 2001, 2006, 2010 and 2011 were making their first starts of the year, so don’t fear a layoff from a classy performer at this middle distance. Only 3 of the last 10 winners exited a victory – 2 of those in the local Henry S. Clark. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Skyring, with Gary Stevens up for D. Wayne Lukas, pulled a wire-towire upset in the race before the Preakness. That proved quite telling as the same golden duo pulled the trick with front-running Oxbow in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown an hour later.

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES: Last 10 Winners – Full History ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04

Skyring Hudson Steele Paddy O’ Prado Strike a Deal Parading Pays to Dream Remarkable News Better Talk Now Cool Conductor Mr. O’Brien

G. Stevens J. Castellano K. Desormeaux R. Dominguez K. Desormeaux J. Castellano R. Dominguez R. Dominguez C. Velasquez R. Dominguez

D. Wayne Lukas Todd Pletcher Dale Romans Alan Goldberg S. McGaughey David Donk Angel Penna Jr. Graham Motion Ralph Nicks Robin Graham

Last 10 Winners’ Preps ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04

Skyring Hudson Steele Paddy O’ Prado Strike a Deal Parading Pays to Dream Remarkable News Better Talk Now Cool Conductor Mr. O’Brien

4th 1st 5th 7th 1st 7th 6th 12th 3rd 1st

G1 Maker’s Mile (Kee) Henry S. Clark (Pim) G1 Br. Cup Classic (CD) G1 United Nations (Mth) G3 Ben Ali (Kee) G3 Fort Marcy (Aqu) G2 Maker’s Mile (Kee) G1 Japan Cup (Tok) allowance (CD) Henry S. Clark (Pim)

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School! 71

New 10¢ Minimum Bet! PLAYERS’ JACKPOT

April 3 through May 3: Any single, unique 10¢ winning ticketholder will receive a minimum of $50,000, plus a trip for two to the 2014 Preakness*! *Roundtrip airfare (from any major North American city), hotel accommodations for May 16 & 17, ground transportation and tickets to Turfside Terrace for Black-Eyed Susan Day (May 16) & Preakness Day (May 17). Turfside Terrace offers magnificent views of Pimlico’s home stretch and finish line from your table. This all-inclusive premium seating area includes a gourmet luncheon buffet, beer & fine wines, souvenir program, entertainment, plus access to private comfort stations and mutuel windows. Two large, state-ofthe- art Jumboscreens allow fans to follow the continuous racing action throughout the day.

The Pimlico Jackpot Pick 5 is a jackpot wager that pays any carryover to a single, unique winning ticket. • 60% of the daily pool is paid to multiple winners or “best of fives” • 40% of the daily pool builds a jackpot carryover payable to a single, unique winning 10¢ ticket. • Low 18% Takeout • 10¢ minimum bet and ticket value. • Late scratches are awarded post time favorites. • A move from turf to dirt results in an “all”; a surface change in more than one leg results in a refund. • Mandatory payout on Preakness Day (May 17, 2014) 72

Horse Player NOW takes you inside the past performances – the GPS of nearly every player – and dissects a specific race for what to look for within the lines – and between them. Maiden Special Weight races are allowance races for those who have yet to win a race. Horses entered cannot be claimed, and, thus, these attract top prospects from each barn early in their careers. For that reason, it’s important to consider trainers in MSWs. These rarely go to low-profile (%) outfits. Pedigrees will be important in MSWs because of limited career starts and excessive purses offered. For most, a MSW race will be the biggest chance to recoup a large sum of an auction purchase price. Tracks inflate MSW purses for this reason; to help the game’s owners try and help the re-investment process in bloodstock. Familiarize yourself with sires and dams known for producing at today’s situation: distance, surface, age, etc. Also use items like AWD (average winning distance) in BRIS past performances and any pedigree notes you can glean from PPs & track analysts. Expect improvements in the 2nd and/or 3rd starts. A little education goes a long way with a talented animal. Trainer stats and improved workouts since the last start can help you identify who is ready to move forward today. PPs courtesy BRIS, chart LINK courtesy Equibase.

The Long Run. How many times have you heard that threeword trifecta when talking to fellow players? Its basis seems justifiable: to look at the big picture and how things evolve. Don’t get caught

up in assumptions and shorttruths. Let the record play out.

But it’s also a broken record, not to mention a terrible crutch. “The Long Run” has been bastardized to mean, “I have not yet been proven right, but I will eventually – you’ll see.” That is, of course, if you can afford to arrive at the city limits of “The Long Run” with more than lint in your Levis. “The Long Run” has a long-running problem – 99.9 percent of us will never get there, come close to it, or really even know where it begins and ends. If you play 20 races per week for a year, you’re at 1,040 annually – is that “The Long Run” when you filter bet types, results, surfaces et al?

When does your statistical perception come to fruition? Is it when your ROI goes in the black … when the calendar year arbitrarily ends and renews … when your local race meet starts and stops, if you’re fortunate enough to play tracks that actually have meets? Playing the races is as much feel as anything statistical. I love numbers and I trust them, but I realize they are fluid. Hot barns go cold, and frigid ROIs turn sizzling as we play through our streaks. Our ability to sense that feel and its upcoming twists – good and bad – is something we do every day when being honest with ourselves. “The Long Run” can be a convenient excuse for some players’ inability to sense momentum – which is the true difference between winning and losing TODAY. 77

Week 20, May 16, 2014 By Jeremy Plonk

Editor’s Note: The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene. Countdowntothecrown.com is the home each Friday from Jan. 3 through the Belmont Stakes, and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes. This week’s fearless forecast The 2014 Preakness appears to be all about the pace that the Kentucky Derby lacked. How the race is run will determine how the race is won. Three horses we deemed this spring in Countdown to be the most serious threats to the Derby engine–Social Inclusion, Bayern and Pablo Del Monte–all board the Triple Crown express for the middle jewel after skipping the festivities 2 weeks ago in Louisville.

Preakness 139 Pace Scenario SPEED: Social Inclusion Pablo Del Monte PRESS: California Chrome (pic above) Bayern Ring Weekend MIDPACK: General a Rod Ride On Curlin Dynamic Impact CLOSER: Ria Antonia Kid Cruz We’ll go horse-by-horse, as is our Triple Crown race-week custom, to give you a direct take on each of the 10 official Preakness entrants. Can anymore remove California Chrome from the map? 79

Not On My Tickets RIA ANTONIA: When an owner places horses in races and not trainers, it’s your first sign to look elsewhere. Ria Antonia moves to the Tom Amoss barn after her connections failed to find success this year with Jeremiah Englehart or Bob Baffert. The DQ winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has a single true win on her resume, a maiden sprint at Woodbine last July 21 before she was privately purchased by the current tandem of Ron Paolucci and Chris Dunn. While the connections are open gamblers and have publicly boasted of a $700,000 wagering coup at Santa Anita last fall, this would be an even higher-raised

eyebrow if she can pull the Preakness heist. Rachel Alexandra is the only filly to win the middle jewel of the Triple Crown in the last 90 years. Ria Antonia and Rachel Alexandra share little in common – other than their initials. RING WEEKEND: As much as I root for the connections and want to see the Tampa Bay Derby winner do well on Saturday, he appears to be against a daunting pace dilemma. His best race was taking the race to his rivals at Tampa, but that style would be implosive against this particular field in the Preakness. The amount of brilliant early gas in the starting gate puts Ring Weekend (pictured) in a very tough-torecommend “no lead, no pass” situation. As poorly as Our Caravan ran in Saturday’s G2 Peter Pan coming out of the Calder Derby, and how weak Vinceremos performed in the Kentucky Derby, the company lines for Ring Weekend don’t send out warm and fuzzies. 80

PABLO DEL MONTE: Scratching from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby certainly can’t be considered a bad move. His assignment Derby Day would have been too tall and likely set him back a long way. Many a chewed-up Derby speed horse has been stunted in their future success. That said, the way the Derby played out, there’s no doubt in my mind this horse would have been on top and setting the tone. He’s got a lot of natural speed, and that should be on display in the Preakness where he comes in fresh and “breathing fire” as trainer Wesley Ward has joked. How much fire will he be breathing out of his nostrils if the pace is too quick Saturday? That may be an unenviable question to ask postrace. Ward’s 2 career Preakness starters have combined to beat 1 horse, though Pablo Del Monte certainly has some talent. He ran much faster than par on the Poly at Keeneland, pace-wise, when lasting a long ways in the 9-furlong Blue Grass. The solid, but unspectacular, performances by Dance With Fate and Medal Count in the Kentucky Derby don’t move the needle on what you should think of Pablo Del Monte at this point. His mama was a worldrecord setter at 4-1/2 furlongs and it just reasons to me that the

Preakness is too far under too much pace pressure for him to succeed. He might be a Haskell horse on a speed track at 1-1/8 miles; he’s no cheap speed player. But Saturday’s set-up feels wrong. DYNAMIC IMPACT: After 4 losses to open his career, a couple of fortuitous photos have gone his way by a neck and then a nose in the Illinois Derby. He was able to collar the speedy, but distancechallenged, Midnight Hawk last time in Hawthorne’s long stretch. For his Preakness credentials, I wanted to see how Illinois Derby third-place finisher Irish You Well fared back last Saturday in the G2 Peter Pan. He was a well-beaten third behind Tonalist and Commissioner, and didn’t flatter the form of the IL Derby cast to any degree. Everything was going right for the Casse barn during the Keeneland meet in April, and while he’s hit on a similar note north of the border in Canada in recent weeks, his US success has waned: Casse’s Kentucky Shift 2014 Keeneland 11-for-42 (26%) 2014 Churchill (into this week) 1-for-15 (7%)

Dynamic Impact by no means is a deep closer, but almost has to fall a few lengths farther behind this group than has been his comfort zone in past races. His late pace numbers from BRIS aren’t bad and could put him in contention from the second flight if the speed comes back to him some. He wouldn’t shock to be third or fourth, but won’t be adorning my tickets outside of an “all-button.” RIDE ON CURLIN: I don’t like the karma here, admittedly, but I also don’t like the more concrete things I’ve seen from Ride On Curlin when it comes to pace. He had either lost position or lengths in the stretch in all 6 career route races until Calvin Borel took him far off the pace in the Derby and he passed runners for the first time. I am not nearly as certain as some – including trainer Bronco Billy Gowan – that this horse can sit near a realistic pace and kick home past others. The Preakness pace projects to be far hotter than realistic, so if new pilot Joel Rosario rides to the trainer’s instructions and keeps somewhat close to the pace, I don’t see how Ride On Curlin finds more when he hadn’t in a halfdozen rehearsals prior with that style. Yes, his papa Curlin won this race in 2007 and upended

Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, but this is no Curlin. My only cause for pause is the incredible success Rebel Stakes alumni have had in the Preakness in recent years. Rebel Stakes Alumni to Win Preakness Last Decade Smarty Jones 2004 Afleet Alex 2005 Curlin 2007 Lookin At Lucky 2010 Oxbow 2013 Ride On Curlin is not an easy read and value-based players have to examine his tote action with fair scrutiny. Where do you put him in fair odds if you like him to upset California Chrome? He looks at least 15-1 to me to pull that off, though more widespread exotics players in multi-race or intrawagers will find some use for him.

Exotics Inclusions SOCIAL INCLUSION: The most respected member of the pace brigade in my estimation, this talented up-and-comer has the best chance to live for a share. I’ll be surprised if it’s a 1-2 finish and tip my visor. But for the bottom of tris and superfectas, it’s never easy to say “all closers” and not expect 82

one from the front force to show just enough staying power to stain a ticket. Horses this lightly raced must be exceptional to win a race like the Preakness, names like Bernardini and Curlin come to mind. That’s pretty rare air in recent history. I’m not sure I trust the foot bruise story why Social Inclusion (pictured above) entered and scratched out of the Sir Bear Stakes at Calder on Derby Day, but if you had some doubts about this horse, his 47-flat, half-mile workout at Pimlico earlier this week should negate that. It’s just a matter of how much more he can put up AFTER that 47-flat in the 51/2 furlongs that still will remain in the Preakness. Even with all the apparent speed, he looks clearly fastest of those if jockey Luis Contreras sets his mind on the engine. Let’s say that he’s simply too fast for Pablo Del Monte and Ring Weekend, while the connections of Bayern and California Chrome don’t want to mix it up early as they’ve noted. If that happens, Social Inclusion

could run a long way before pressured, and even if he were to succumb to the favorite, it’s his best recipe for running second (if not the full upset). Let’s be honest: there aren’t any highquality closers in this field. Kid Cruz has the best late lick, no doubt, but his merit vs. this level is untested.

KID CRUZ (above): Purely a pace play, he’s most likely overmatched on talent, but will be running on late when others aren’t. Closers like Macho Again and 83

Icabad Crane picked up the pace pieces in Big Brown’s runaway in 2008; Magic Weisner came from 11th to 2nd behind War Emblem’s swift set-up. I wouldn’t go ga-ga punching exactas California Chrome to Kid Cruz, but it’s certainly a plausible outcome if the pace percolates as much as it should this time around Old Hilltop. He’s got experience over the track, which doesn’t always help, but never hurts. And pace makes the race aficionados can’t help but think he’ll get every chance to do something late if he fires at all. Linda Rice conservatively handled him by bypassing the Wood Memorial, but has seemed all-in to give him a shot at the big one now. BAYERN: The Arkansas Derby has produced a Preakness 1-2 finisher the past 2 years with Bodemeister 2nd in 2012 and Oxbow (pictured right) a rebound winner here in 2013. Bob Baffert’s mantel already boasts 5 Woodlawn vase replicas, including Lookin At Lucky in 2010, his only Triple Crown race winner since War Emblem’s 2002 Preakness – almost impossible to believe. This colt played catch-up much of the spring and showed both his inexperience and weakness late in the Derby Trial when drifting and tiring to be DQ’d.

Gary Stevens didn’t hang for the Derby Trial mount, and Rosie Napravnik kept it despite getting a 4-day vacation for her ride that was served last week. That doesn’t sound like a rousing endorsement, yet I’m still intrigued enough by this horse’s first 2 starts to not let go. The west proved best in the Derby with California Chrome, and this horse was considered perhaps the most exciting prospect in the region before missing the San Felipe. Lest we forget, Bayern was the morning line favorite for the San Felipe before a foot bruise kept him away from what turned out to be California Chrome’s coming out party. Baffert takes the blinkers off in hopes Bayern avoids a face-melting pace scenario. GENERAL A ROD: A Mike Maker barn that could do no right at Keeneland suddenly has found its swagger at Churchill with an 8-for34 start heading into this week. Now he’s willing to step forward to the Preakness with a horse 11th in the Derby after an even trip. Maker’s Back on the Mark 2014 Keeneland 4-for-56 (7%) 2014 Churchill (into this week) 8-for-34 (24%) 84

Win Contenders:

Read into it what you want, but without that recent turnaround at CD, I’d be much colder on General a Rod (pictured above from Tuesday at Pimlico) – even if I’ve liked this horse since last Fall. I’ve always been intrigued by his speed-top, stamina-bottom pedigree and a versatile running style that’s seen him rally 9th to 1st or battle on the front end to the wire. That adaptability sets him apart from most of this year’s Preakness field. As I wrote in last week’s column, given the new owners, I’d expect this horse to move to trainer Todd Pletcher’s care in the near future, so this could be one last Maker swansong for a colt that’s been pretty good to him – one he called the best Kentucky Derby prospect of his career just a few weeks ago.

CALIFORNIA CHROME: Only 2 horses in the history of the Derby’s in-race charts ever had a larger lead at the stretch call than his 5-length bulge under the spires. So if anyone is going to beat California Chrome at a sixteenth of a mile shorter distance in the Preakness, it’s going to take a Herculean bid or a noticeable regression from the champ. Yes, the Derby was slow. But the figure makers don’t agree on just what it means or how the numbers jive. BRIS gave a 103, the slowest since Giacomo’s 100 in 2005; Beyer deemed it a 97, the slowest Derby since the figures first were published. California Chrome supplanted Giacomo (100), Sunday Silence (101) and I’ll Have Another (100) as the lowest Beyer of its era – though it’s noteworthy the latter pair both went on to win the Preakness. Numbers never lie; the Derby was slow. But numbers are like husbands – they only tell what they want to tell, and you only hear what you want to hear anyway. If you are a speed figure or sheets player on a consistent basis, the cause for pause ought to be real. At what figures to be 3-5 85

odds, consider alternatives. I’m not a speed figure or numbers player on any card; so I’m indifferent. California Chrome has posted the top 3 stakes performances by a 3year-old colt in 2014. His ability to set the tone, press the pace or stalk-and-pounce make him a difficult out for any of his rivals if he brings his B+ game to Baltimore. Countdown’s Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014 1. California Chrome – KY Derby 2. California Chrome – SA Derby 3. California Chrome – San Felipe 4. Candy Boy – Lewis Memorial 5. Hoppertunity – Rebel

Jeremy Plonk’s 2014 Preakness Selections

WIN: CALIFORNIA CHROME PLACE: GENERAL A ROD SHOW: SOCIAL INCLUSION For Jeremy’s wagering strategies see Saturday’s HP NOW BUZZ! Photo credits: Photos By Z, Jim McCue (Maryland Jockey Club), Adam Coglianese (NYRA) 86