Fashion Forecasting by Hsin Yee Wong

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CONTENTS Introduction

PEST Analysis

Current Trends Key Details Key Shapes Key Fabrics Key Colours

5 13 15 17 18

1980s Fashion

Spring/Summer 2010 Trends Key Details Key Shapes Key Fabrics Key Colours

20 26 27 28 29

Key Market Drivers

Fashion Life Cycle

Trend Forecast Autumn/Winter 2010/11

Heritage Inspiration Trend Development Customer

33 33 38 43

Sculptural Inspiration Trend Development Customer

47 47 52 57

Conclusion

Bibliography

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TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

E E < > E % 1 5 ' , = 5;:'<

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TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

' / , 5 ( 1 , B + ' L % K-1,5(G

j*'# 12# 0$'# 0.'*+/# "# ,.'+)40# 3)77# 41*0)*-'# 01# +.)&'# )*01# W@M# !A@!!# )/# 0$'# $'.)0%('# 0.'*+# 0$%0# )/# >'5# .)($0# *13:# B'.)0%('#/'0#)0/#<%.>#0$)/#/'%/1*#01#4'7'8.%0'#0$'#E`0$#%**)&'./%.5#12#i1*+1*#Y%/$)1*#3''>:#['/)(*'./#/$134%/'+# %77#0$)*(/#;.)0)/$#G#2.1<#2%8.)4#4$1)4'#01#(%.<'*0#/'7'40)1*:# "#,.'+)40#0$%0#$'.)0%('#3)77#8'#8%4>#21.#*'P0#W@M#!A@!!#3)0$#%#3$17'#*'3#03)/0:#B'.)0%('#)/#%#>'5#0.'*+#0$)/#/'%/1*=#%*+# 3)0$#47%//)4#,)'4'/#2.1<#0$'#,%/0=#0$'5#3)77#*10#+%0'#9-)4>75:#Q5#)*/,).%0)1*#%7/1#41<'/#2.1<#0$'#41*/)+'.%0)1*#12#'0$)4%7# 2%/$)1*#%*+#0$'#N<%>'#+1#%*+#<'*+C#<1001#/''*#)*#0$'#a1&'<8'.#)//-'#12#dj_kV:#Y%/$)1*#$%/#1*75#.'%775#41<'#01#0'.</# %81-0#0$'#)<,1.0%*4'#12#/-/0%)*%8)7)05=#%*+#%/#%#.'/-70#12#0$)/=#41*/-<'./#3)77#/0%.0#01#.-<<%('#0$.1-($#0$').#3%.+.18'/# 21.#3'%.%87'#2%/$)1*%87'#,)'4'/:#"#0$)*>#0$%0#0$'#0.'*+#3)77#+'&'71,#)*#0$'#3%5#0$%0#)0#3)77#<)P#3)0$#0$'#*'3#L@L#!A#0.'*+/# /-4$#%/#8.)($0#4171-./=#%*+#0%)71.)*(#)*#,%.0)4-7%.#21.#0$'#*'P0#>'5#711>/:#W0#0$'#i1*+1*#2%/$)1*#3''>#/$13/#0$)/#/'%/1*=# 0$'.'#3'.'#<%*5#+1**)*(#1*#&)*0%('#(%.<'*0/#0$%0#$%&'#%#8)0#12#$'.)0%('#8'$)*+#)0:#"0#4%*#1*75#('0#<1.'#,1,-7%.:

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TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

' / , 5 ( 1 , B + ' L % G K-1,5( Wii#DB"a_L#;g"D"LB

D$'.'C/# 8''*# %77# 0$%0# $5,'# %81-0# ;.)0)/$# 2%/$)1*# .'4'*075:# M)0$# %77# 0$)*(/# ;.)0)/$# '<'.()*(# 1*01# 0$'# <%.>'0# 01# <%.># 0$'# E`0$#8).0$+%5#12#i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d)&)'**'#M'/0311+#)/#%0#0$'#21.'2.1*0#12# 0$)/#'<'.()*(#0.'*+#%/#/$'#/0%0'/#N)0C/#+1# )0#51-./'72C:#M'/0311+#7)>'/#01#-/'#N8)0/#12# 4710$/C#%*+#$-.7)*(#0$'<#1&'.#0$'#81+5:# k/)*(#0$'#17+#/''</#01#8'#0$'#/0%0'<'*0#)*# 2%/$)1*#01+%5:

d)*0%('#;.)0)/$# 47%//)4/#1*#0$'# /0.''0/#12#i1*+1*

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

' / , 5 ( 1 , B + ' L % G K-1,5(

B13#0$'#$'.)0%('#0.'*+#)/#'&17&)*(:::

D$)/#5'%.#4'7'8.%0'/#0$'#E`0$#5'%.#12#i1*+1*#Y%/$)1*#M''>: D$'#$'.)0%('#0.'*+#)/#&'.5#<-4$#214-/'+#1*#03''+#%*+#17+#2%/$)1*# /057'/#0$)/#/'%/1*:# "0#+'&'71,/#)*01#0$'#41-*05#().7#0.'*+=#3)0$#<1.'#*'-0.%7#%*+#&)*0%('# 4171-./: a'P0# /'%/1*=# 0$'# $'.)0%('# 0.'*+# )/# <1.'# /-)0%87'# 01# 0$'# 51-*('.# <%.>'0=#3)0$#i1-)/#d-)001*==#Q%.4#85#Q%.4#c%418/#-/)*(#0$'#>'5# ,%00'.*/#3)0$#<1.'#4-/01<)/'+=#.'0.1#%*+#&)*0%('#711>/:#D$)/#)/#3$%0#"# 8'7)'&'#01#8'#%#>'5#+.)&'.#21.#W@M#!A@!!:# D$'#0.'*+#.'<%)*/#)*/,).'+#85#0$'#HA/=#8-0#)/#8%/'+#1*#0$'#51-0$# .'8'77)1*#12#0$%0#+'4%+':#M'#/''#0$'#7)>'/#12#.')*&'*0)*(#0$'#17+#%*+# -/)*(#3$%0#3'#%7.'%+5#13*:#D$)/#3%/#%7.'%+5#'<'.()*(#1*#0$'#/0.''0/# 12#i1*+1*:# D$'#'41*1<5#$%/#$%+#%*#%22'40#01#0$)/#2%/$)1*#0.'*+=#%/#41*/-<'./# 8.)*(#1-0#0$'#&)*0%('#01#/%&'#0$').#<1*'5:#

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

' / , 5 ( 1 , B + ' L % G K-1,5(

g-7'#;.)0%**)% D$'#0)<'7'//#47%//)4/#%.'#%77#1&'.#0$'#$)($#/0.''0#%*+#/1#.)($0# %.'#M_La#01#$)($7)($0#0$)/#%/#0$'#>'5#0.'*+/#)*#2%/$)1*# 01+%5:# _%.<'*0/# $%&'# %*# 17+# /057'=# 3)0$# 41-*0.5/)+'# 4171-./#>'5#01#0$'#0.'*+#%0#0$'#<1<'*0:#B13'&'.=#3'#/''# %*#'<'.('*4'#12#51-*(#$'.)0%('=#3)0$#8.)($0'.#%*+#817+# 4171-./#/4%00'.'+#1&'.#0$'#4%03%7>/:#

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

' / , 5 ( 1 , B + ' L % K-1,5(G

Q%>'#[1#%*+#Q'*+

M$'*#4%..5)*(#1-0#<5#,.)<%.5#%*+#/'41*+%.5#.'/'%.4$=# "#21-*+#0$%0#0$'#N<%>'#<'*+#%*+#+1C#<1001#3%/#<1.'#1.# 7'//#'&'.53$'.':#W70$1-($#*10#5'0#%#>'5#0.'*+#0$)/#/'%/1*=# )0#/''</#%/#)2#)0#)/#'<'.()*(#1*01#0$'#<%.>'0:#d)*0%('#)/# '&'.53$'.'#%*+#+'/)(*'./#%.'#711>)*(#)*01#4-/01<)/)*(# (%.<'*0/:#D$)/#3%/#,.'/'*0#)*#0$'#,%/0#dj_kV#)//-'/=#/''*# $'.': D$'5#'<,$%/)X'+#1*#-/)*(#3$%0C/#%&%)7%87'#01#-/#%*+# <%>)*(# -/'# 12# )0:# D$'.'# )/# *1# *''+# 01# /,'*+# <%//'/# %<1-*0# 1*# <1*'5=# 3$'*# 51-# 4%*# 4.'%0'# /1<'0$)*(# -*)9-'#%0#%#2.%40)1*#12#0$'#,.)4':# D$)/# )/# 3$'.'# &)*0%('# 41<'/# )*:# j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

W7'P%*+'.#M%*(C/#/4.-225# 711>/#1*#0$'#4%03%7>

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

5 ' : B / ) I A % $1-'0 M_La#21.'4%/0/#'41G2%/$)1*#/057'/#21.#L@L#!A:#D$)/#)/#%7/1#'&17&'/#2.1<#0$'#$'.)0%('#711>/#%*+#0$'#&)*0%(':#D$)/# /$13/#0$%0#/-/0%)*%87'#2%/$)1*#)/#(%)*)*(#<1.'#'P,1/-.'#%*+#41*/-<'./#%.'#0%>)*(#0$'/'#)//-'/#)*01#41*/)+'.%0)1*:# ['/)(*'./#%.'#8')*(#'0$)4%7=#%*+#0$)/#3)77#2)70'.#0$.1-($#01#0$'#<%//#<%.>'0:#D$)/#$%/#)*/,).'+#<'#21.#<5#0.'*+# ,.'+)40)1*=#3$'.'#"#,.'+)40#$'.)0%('#3)77#8'41<'#<1.'#&)*0%('#%*+#4-/01<)/'+:

"0#711>/#7)>'#'41#2%/$)1*#3)77#8'#0$'#2-0-.'/#2%/$)1*:#"0#$%/# ,.1&'+#01#8'#%#/-44'//#%<1*(#0$'#+'/)(*/#85#/1<'#12#0$'# 01,#7%8'7/: W70$1-($#"#+1*C0#21.'4%/0#0$'#'41#4$)4#+'/4.)8'+#$'.'=#"# 8'7)'&'#41*/-<'./#3)77#0%>'#0$'#/-/0%)*%8)705#)//-'#)*01# 41*/)+'.%0)1*#85#-/)*(#3$%0C/#%7.'%+5#0$'.':

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

5 ' : B / ) I A % $1-'0

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i11>/#%.'#8'41<)*(#51-0$2-7#%*+#.'0.1=#%/#$'.)0%('#,%00'.*/#.'<%)*:

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TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

5 ' : B / ) I A % $1-'0

B'.)0%('#$%/#+'&'71,'+#)*#0$'#3%5#0$%0#)0#)/#(1)*(#2.1<#/<%.0#01#51-*(#%*+#2-*:#^171-./# %.'#<-4$#<1.'#&)8.%*0#%*+#/057'/#%.'#,7%52-7#%*+#3)0$#%#/'72G4-/01<)/'+#'7'<'*0:#U)'4'/# 711>#&)*0%('#%*+#1*'/#0$%0#4%*#8'#,-77'+#1-0#12#0$'#3%.+.18'#1*4'#%(%)*:#D$'#$'.)0%('# 0.'*+#/''</#01#8'#+'&'71,)*(#)*01#*'P0#/'%/1*=#%*+#/)(*/#12#N17+#/4$117C#2%/$)1*#)/# '<'.()*(=#3)0$#41*/-<'./#3'%.)*(#4$-*>5#>*)0/#3)0$#8.)($0#.'0.1#4171-./:##

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TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

5 ' : B / ) I A % $1-'0 <*-,"#:-,$$*' L@L#4%03%7>/#41*0)*-'#01#)*41.,1.%0'#'7'<'*0/#12#0$'#$'.)0%('#0.'*+#%/#i1-)/#d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j*#0$'#/0.''0/#12#i1*+1*=#"#4%*#/''#,'1,7'#3%*0)*(# 01#.'G)*&'*0#0$').#17+#(%.<'*0/#01#,.1+-4'#/1<'0$)*(#<1.'#2%/$)1*%87':#"2#4-00)*(#/4.%,/#12#+'*)<#)*01#/<%77#,)'4'/# %*+#/'3)*(#0$'<#01('0$'.#01#<%>'#%#2%/$)1*%87'#Z%4>'0=#0$'*#3'#4%*#%77#+1#Z-/0#0$%0:#"2#*10=#&)*0%('#/$1,/=#4$%.)05#/$1,/# %*+#<%.>'0/#3)77#$'7,#-/#3)0$#0$'#0.'*+:

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TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11 :,:&''&#/&"$/**( d)&'**'# M'/0311+C/# 4177'40)1*# 21.# L@L# EA!A# 41*/)/0/# 12# 4-/01<)/'+# 711>/# %/# 3'77# &)*0%('# 711>/:# L$'# 41<8)*'/# $'.)0%('#2%8.)4/#%*+#%#<)P0-.'#12#&17-<'#%*+#0%)71.)*(=#/)<)7%.#01#Q%.4#85#Q%.4#c%418C/#4177'40)1*#8-0#-/)*(#%# <1.'#4%7<'.#,%7'00'#12#4171-./:#L$'#<)P'/#&17-<'#%*+#0)($0#2)00)*(#(%.<'*0/:#U.'/'*0%0)1*#)/#.'7%P'+#%*+#4%/-%7#%/# M'/0311+#-/'/#0$'#N<%>'#+1#%*+#<'*+C#<1001=#9-)0'#7)0'.%775#0$.13)*(#4710$'/#1&'.#81+)'/:#

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!F:#M$5#31-7+#51-#8-5#&)*0%('h D$'/'#%.'#/1<'#12#0$'#9-10'/#0$%0#4%<'#2.1<#0$'#&)*0%('#41*/-<'.#%/#01#3$5#0$'5#8-5#)*01#&)*0%('#G

!"#$%&#$'()*+,(-$."(,$#/&$01,$%&#$2"(3$*,$ 4*,21+($)"/5)6 71)"*/,$*)$188$1%/&2$-(*,4(,2*/,$1,'$-(0#08*,+9 :2)$;&)2$1)$+//'$<&18*2#$1)$"*+"$)2-((2$-(21*8(-)=$*>$ ,/2$%(22(-? @"($+1-3(,2)$1-($-1-($1,'$5-()2*+(=$)/$#/&$./,A2$ )(($(4(-#/,($.(1-*,+$."12$#/&$"14(? B*,21+($*)$'*>>(-(,29$C(/58($18.1#)$2"*,D$1%/&2$2"($ ,(.$08/2"()$%&2$2"($E/8'A$*)$3/-($418&1%8(9 :$0&)2/3*)($3#$4*,21+($5&-0"1)()=$:$8*D($2"($ <&*-D#=$3*F$1,'$3120"$)2#8(9$

H O 多 R U 3 U H P R W V &X 0,""#:,'$!;&

"0C/#*10#%73%5/#%81-0#0$'#*'3:#L1<'0)<'/#0$'#*'3# 41-7+# 8'# 0$'# 17+:# Q)//# d)*0%('# )/# %77# %81-0# 0$'# 4-/01<)/'+=#0$'#)*+)&)+-%7#%*+#0$'#-*)9-'#/057':# D$'.'C/#*1#*''+#01#/,7%/$#%77#0$%0#4%/$#1*#+'/)(*'.# 3'%.#1.#0$'#$)($#/0.''0#7%8'7/:#U1,#)*01#%#4$%.)05#/$1,=# %#<%.>'0#/0%77#%*+#(.%8#%*50$)*(#%0#%#8%.(%)*#,.)4'# 0$%0# 41<'/# 3)0$# /1<'# /'*0)<'*0%7# &%7-':# "0# 41-7+# 8'# 0$'# ^$%*'7# $%*+8%(=# 0$'# d)&)'**'# M'/0311+# *'4>7%4'#1.#0$'#i'&)C/#Z'%*/:#^7%//)4#)0'</#%0#%#2.%40)1*# 12# 0$'# 1.)()*%7# ,.)4':# O'/=# )0# <)($0# $%&'# 0$'# <-/05# /<'77=#8-0#0$%0#/''</#01#)*$%8)0#%*5#&)*0%('G4710$)*(# /01.':# Q)//# d)*0%('# >*13/# 'P%4075# 3$'.'# 01# (1# 21.# $'.#8'/0#8-5/:# D$'.'C/#*1#*''+#01#8-5#0$'#03''+/=#4$'4>/=#&'7&'0=# 2-.#0$%0C/#)*#0.'*+#0$)/#/'%/1*#G#)0C/#%77#%7.'%+5#)*#0$'# 3%.+.18':# g%.'# $'.)0%('# ,)'4'/# 2.1<# ,%/0# +'4%+'/=# /1<'# 8.1-($0# +13*# 2.1<# 0$'# 2%<)75:# "2# 51-# +1*C0# 13*# 0$'# <-/0# $%&'# &)*0%('# ,)'4'/6# 0$'# /3''0# 7)007'# 271.%7#+.'//=#0$'#17+#2%/$)1*'+#41411*)*(#>*)0/=#0$'# 4%,'/#%*+#0$'#4$'4>#/$).0/=#0$'*#0%>'#%#/0.177#+13*# ;.)4>#i%*'=#^%<+'*#D13*=#1.#U1.0%8'771#Q%.>'0:#"0# +'2)*)0'75#31*C0#,-0#%#$17'#)*#51-.#8%*>m#Q)//#d)*0%('# 71&'/#01#4-/01<)/'#$'.#711>/=#%70'.)*(#$'.#,-.4$%/'/# 01#<%>'#0$'<#'P47-/)&'#%*+#1*G0.'*+:#j20'*#<)P)*(# %*+# <%04$)*(# 3)0$# $)($# /0.''0# ,-.4$%/'/# 2.1<# D1,/$1,=#BlQ#%*+#k.8%*#j-02)00'./:# d)*0%('#3)77#%73%5/#8'#3)0$#-/#)*#2%/$)1*:#Q%*5#12# 0$'# 'P,'*/)&'# 4710$'/# 1*# 0$'# 4%03%7># $%&'# %# (.%/,# 12#0$'#2%/$)1*#$)/01.5:#V&'*#$)($#/0.''0#.'0%)7'./#122'.# &)*0%('#)*/,).'+#(%.<'*0/#8-0#3$%0C/#+)22'.'*0#)/#0$%0# Q)//#d)*0%('#$%/#0$'#.%.'=#,.'/0)('=#0.'*+5#,)'4'/#0$%0# '&'.51*'#3%*0/#%*+#4%*C0#2)*+m#NY%/$)1*#)/#%77#%81-0# .')*&'*0)1*#%*+#.'4547)*(:C

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

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

+-%%&'$#<**1"

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

+ ' / , 5 ( 1 , B + ' L % ) ( 1 ; 5 B ) #.;

D$'# /4-7,0-.%7# /)7$1-'00'# $%/# %7.'%+5# 8''*# %+1,0'+# 85# 4'7'8.)0)'/:# M)0$# 0)($0# 2)00)*(# 1-07)*'/# %*+# &17-<)*1-/# +'0%)7=#0$'#0.'*+#)/#+'&'71,)*(#9-)4>75:#^1*/-<'./#%.'#<%)*75#%+1,0)*(#0$'#/$1-7+'.#,%++'+#(%.<'*0/=#3)0$#0$'# '%.75#%+1,0'./#<1&)*(#1*01#/$%.,#/$1-7+'./:# D$'#%.4$)0'40-.%7#0.'*+#)/#*10#%77#%81-0#0$'#/$1-7+'./#%/#2%8.)4/#%.'#4.'%0)&'75#41*/0.-40'+#01#21.<#810$#$%.+#%*+# .1-*+#7)*'/:#j&'./)X'#,.1,1.0)1*/=#'P%(('.%0'+#%*(7'/#%*+#/311/$5#7%5'./:#L0.1*(#/)7$1-'00'/#3)0$#'<,$%/)/#1*# /0.-40-.'=# /$%,'# %*+# 21.<:# M'# '*0'.# 0$'# *'3# 2-0-.)/0)4# 2%/$)1*:# Q%Z1.# ,7'%0/=# 217+/=# ,)**)*(=# 7%5'.)*(=# /-.2%4'# 0'P0-.'#%*+#0$.''G+)<'*/)1*%7#+'/)(*/#21.<#2-0-.)/0)4#2%/$)1*:

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

+ ' / , 5 ( 1 , B + ' L % ) ( 1 ; 5 B ) #.; =!<0!,'

W.4$)0'40-.%7#/$%,'/#3'.'#,.'/'*0#1*#0$'#%@3#Ab#4%03%7>/=#%*+#1*#0$'#/0.''0/=#3'#%.'#/'')*(#%/,'40/#1*#0$)/#0.'*+# 8')*(#<%+'#41<<'.4)%7#G#,%.0)4-7%.75#0$'#214-/#1*#0$'#/$1-7+'./: D$'#0.'*+#%77#/0%.0'+#3$'*#^$.)/01,$'#['4%.*)*#%0#;%7<%)*#,-0#0$'<#1*#$)/#4%03%7>#21.#L@L#EAAb:#B)/#W@M#Ab#4177'40)1*# /$134%/'+#/4-7,0'+#/$1-7+'./#)*41.,1.%0)*(#0$'<#)*01#87%X'./=#/0.),'+#DG/$).0/#%*+#/-,'.G0)($0#+)/41#+.'//'/=#<%>)*(# 0$'#0.'*+#<-4$#<1.'#41<<'.4)%7#)*#+)22'.'*0#(%.<'*0/#,)'4'/:#L%//5#1*'G/$1-7+'.'+#+.'//'/#81%/0'+#2.)77/#%*+#271-*4'/# )*#-*+-7%0)*(#3%&'/#%4.1//#4177%.81*'/#12#0$'#<1+'7/:#B'<7)*'/#3'.'#/$1.0=#%/#+.'//'/#)*41.,1.%0'+#F@T#7'*(0$#/7''&'/# %*+#4.'3#*'4>/:#

Q,<#"!'(&% c)7#L%*+'.C/#4177'40)1*#21.#W@M#Ab#'P,71.'+#47'%*#7)*'/#%*+#)<,'44%87'#0%)71.)*(:#U%.0#12#$'.#4177'40)1*#3%/#N)*/,).'+# 85#03'*0)'0$#4'*0-.5#4'.%<)/0#U17#^$%<81/0#%*+#,.1&)+'+#/1<'#12#0$'#<1/0#8'%-0)2-7#+.'//'/#3'C.'#7)>'75#01#/''#0$)/# /'%/1*:#^.'%0'+#2.1<#0$'#/%<'#(1.('1-/#2%8.)4/=#0$'5#$%+#/,%3*'+#%#/'41*+#7%5'.#0$%0#$%+#,''7'+#122#Z-/0#'*1-($#01# 27%/$#%#8.)($0#2-4$/)%#1.#8-00'.4-,#5'7713#7)*)*(=#')0$'.#%0#0$'#*'4>#1.#+%*4)*(#)*#%#/,).%7#+13*#0$'#81+5:C#d1(-'#REAAbS# Nj*'#0.-<,'0#7)75#4177%.=#1*#%#87%4>#4%/$<'.'#/$)20=#4-.&'+#8%4>#1&'.#0$'#+.'//#01#7)($0#-,#0$'#<1+'7C/#2%4'#)*#(17+'*# /-*/$)*'=#3$)7'#10$'./#4%<'#3)0$#(71&'/#3$1/'#'7813G7'*(0$#/7''&'/#2713'.'+#01#1.%*('#%0#0$'#'7813:#N _.%,$)4#/$%,'/#(%&'#0$'#/$13#0$'#2-0-.)/<#0$'#/'%/1*#/''</#01#8'#711>)*(#21.#r#8-0#+'/,)0'#8')*(#/1#-*)9-'=#)0#3%/# 3'%.%87':#d1(-'#REAAbS

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

+ ' / , 5 ( 1 , B + ' L % ) ( 1 ; 5 B ) #.;

Q)*)<%7#/4-7,0-.'#3%/#,.'+)40'+#%/#%#>'5#711>#85#M_La# 21.#0$)/#W@M#Ab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

D$)/#0.'*+#3)77#41<8)*'#3)0$#10$'.#>'5#0.'*+/#21.'4%/0'+# 21.#L@L#!A:#L-4$#%/#0$'#-/'#12#817+#4171-./:#"0#3)77#.'<%)*# 2-0-.)/0)4# 8-0# +'/)(*/# 3)77# 8'# >',0# <)*)<%76# /$1-7+'./# 3)77#41*0)*-'#3)0$#-/)*(#*'3#41<,1*'*0/=#10$'.#0$%*# /'9-)*/:# i13# $'<7)*'/# 3)77# 8'# 0$'# >'5# 01# 0$)/# 0.'*+# 41<8)*'+#3)0$#4.'3=#4137#1.#4177%.#*'4>/:#

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

+ ' / , 5 ( 1 , B + ' L % ) ( 1 ; 5 B ) #.;

W/#,%.0#12#0.'*+#21.'4%/0)*(=#"#&)/)0'+#%*#'P$)8)0)1*#%0#0$'#dlW:#W*#'P$)8)0)1*#/$134%/)*(#NY%/$)1*#Y-0-.'#a13C#85# i1*+1*C/#g15%7#^177'('#12#W.0#/0-+'*0:#D$)/#3%/#%#(.'%0#)*/,).%0)1*#%/#"#3%/#%87'#01#/''#3$%0C/#(1)*(#01#'<'.('#1*01#0$'# <%.>'0#%*+#/''#$13#2%/$)1*#)/#4$%*()*(:# M)0$#0.'*+/#/-4$#%/#0$'#/$1-7+'./#8')*(#%#>'5#<%.>'0#+.)&'.=#)0#3%/#18&)1-/#0$%0#2%/$)1*#)/#8'()**)*(#01#('0#<1.'# 0'4$*171()4%7#%*+#41*0'<,1.%.5:#D$)/#3%/#/''*#)*#0$'#4177'40)1*/#85#/1<'#12#0$'#/0-+'*0/#%0#g^W=#%/#0$'5#-/'+#*'3# 0'4$*)9-'/#)*#0$').#4177'40)1*/:#

D$'#4177'40)1*/#/$134%/'+#3'.'#<1+'.*=#%*+#)*41.,1.%0'+#%#710#12#/4-7,0-.%7@%.4$)0'40-.%7#/$%,'/:#?*)0/#3'.'# <-4$# <1.'# 41<,7'P=# 3)0$# %.0# +'41# /057'# +'/)(*/# %*+# %7/1# 817+# 4171-./:# _%.<'*0/# 3'.'# <-4$# <1.'# 2%/$)1*# 21.3%.+=#%/#+'/)(*/#3'.'#<1.'#4.'%0)&':#D$)/#/-(('/0/#0$%0#2%/$)1*#1&'.#0$'#*'P0#5'%./#3)77#8'41<'#<1.'#)*&'*0)&':

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

5 ' : B / ) I A % $1-'0

B13#0$'#/$1-7+'.#41*4',0#)/#'&17&)*(:::

D$'#/$1-7+'.#214-/#1*#0%)71.'+#Z%4>'0/#$%/#8''*#%#>'5#<%.>'0#+.)&'.:#D$'#,%++'+#/$1-7+'.#$%/#+'&'71,'+#&'.5# 9-)4>75#%/#*'3#/$1-7+'.#+'/)(*/#'<'.('=#%/#/''*#1*#0$'#4%03%7>/: a10#1*75#)/#0$'#/057'#12#0$'#/$1-7+'.#4$%*()*(#+.%<%0)4%775:::

:::8-0#%7/1#0$'#3$17'#/)7$1-'00'#%/#3'#/''#0)($0#2)0/#3)0$#&17-<)*1-/#/$%,'/:

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

5 ' : B / ) I A % $1-'0

"0C/#*10#Z-/0#%77#%81-0#0$'#,%++'+# %*+#/$%.,#/$1-7+'./6#0)($0#3%)/0/=# 81+5#41*#2)0/=#/$1.0#$'<7)*'/=#4.'3# *'4>/=# %*+# 1.)(%<)# /$%,'/# <%>'# %.4$)0'40-.'#%#+'&'71,)*(#0.'*+:#

d17-<)*1-/#3%)/0

L$%.,#1-07)*'/ Y-0-.)/0)4#Z'./'5#+.'//

-% $ + & .,$

!%+

L4-7,0-.%7#/7''&'/ j.)(%<)#L$1-7+'./

L$%.,#/$1-7+'./

L'9-)*#0)($0#2)0#+.'//#3)0$# /$1-7+'.#,%+/

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

5 ' : B / ) I A % $1-'0 D$'#%.4$)0'40-.%7#0.'*+#41*0)*-'/#)*01#L@L#!A#/'%/1*=#3)0$#0$'#214-/#1*#/$1-7+'./#+'47)*)*(:#['/)(*'./#%.'#'P,71.)*(#0$'# 3$17'#/)7$1-'00'=#41<8)*)*(#/$%.,#/$%,'/:#c)7#L%*+'.#3%/#1*'#12#0$'#2)./0#01#+)&'#)*01#0$)/#)+'%=#%/#/''*#)*#$'.#4177'40)1*# 21.#0$)/#/'%/1*:#W/#<1.'#%*+#<1.'#+'/)(*'./#<%>'#0$)/#0$').#>'5#/057'=#)0#/$13/#0$%0#0$'#0.'*+#)/#+'&'71,)*(#9-)4>75:# ['/)(*/#%.'#2-0-.)/0)4=#%/#+'/)(*'./#<)P#817+#8.)($0/#3)0$#*'-0.%7#/%0)*#4171-./:#L$%,'/#%.'#&17-<)*1-/#%/#4-.&'/#%*+# 7)*'/#%.'#47'%*#5'0#/$%.,:#

/,<<,!0#$&0B&"$ M)77)%<#D'<,'/0=#0$'#2%/0#+'&'71,)*(#+'/)(*'.#$%/#8%/'+#$)/#4177'40)1*#1*#%.4$)0'40-.%7#/$%,'/#21.#L@L#EA!A:#B'#>',0# $)/#+'/)(*/#/)<,7'=#8-0#<%+'#0$'<#-*)9-'#3)0$#-*-/-%7#/$%.,#/$%,'/#%*+#217+/=#4.'%0)*(#%#0$.''#+)<'*/)1*%7#(%.<'*0:# D$'#(%.<'*0/#%.'#0)($075#2)00'+#%.1-*+#0$'#81+5=#+'&'71,)*(#2.1<#0$'#81+5#41*/:#D$)/#0)<'#0$'#!bHA/#/$1-7+'./#$%&'# 0.%*/21.<'+#)*#%#+)22'.'*0#3%5:#W70$1-($#0$'5#+1#('0#3)+'.=#0$'5#%7/1#('0#<1.'#2-0-.)/0)4:#D$'#)*27-'*4'#12#F[#0'4$*171(5# )/#)*+)4%0'+#$'.':#

Q-<,&'#0!+(*'!<( c-7)'*#Q%4[1*%7+#%7/1#41<8)*'+#/4-7,0-.%7#/$%,'/#3)0$#2-0-.)/0)4#711>/:#M$%0C/#8'41<)*(#%#0.'*+#%.'#+.'//'/#3)0$# /$1.0#$'<7)*'/=#%#4.'3#*'4>#%*+#<)+#01#71*(#/7''&'/:#D$'#+.'//'/#%.'#81+5#$-(()*(#%*+#0$'5#2)0#0)($075#%.1-*+#0$'# /)7$1-'00':#;714>)*(#4171-./#/''</#01#8'#>'5#)*#0$)/#0.'*+=#%/#3'77#%/#0$'#-/'#12#('1<'0.)4#/$%,'/#01#2)0#)*#3)0$#0$'#0.'*+:# L$1-7+'.#%.'#/0)77#%#214%7#,1)*0=#8-0#0$'#3$17'#81+5#/)7$1-'00'#4.'%0'#%#>'5#711>#21.#0$'#*'P0#/'%/1*/#01#41<':#

TREND FORECASTING A/W 10/11

5 ' : B / ) I A % $1-'0 1&>#",<*-&$$&"

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