The Basketball Stats Survival Guide

Basketball Stats Survival Guide

We’ve officially reached the peak of the stats revolution in basketball.

There is a number to quantify nearly every aspect of the game, and coaches are using these insights more and more in an effort to glean any edge that can help their team.

But with so many new stats popping up, it can be easy to get lost in a wave of numbers. How is the Value Point System calculated? What are the Four Factors? Why does plus-minus matter?

This book is intended to answer those questions and break down the walls separating you from some great statistics that could really help your team. We took a look at some of the hottest trending stats from the basketball community and broke down what they are, how they’re measured and why they matter. We also talked with coaches from across the country about how and why they use the data.

Read it. Use it. Keep this stat book on you at all times, ever ready to provide a new insight.

The Value Point System The one-stop stat to define effectiveness The basketball landscape is littered with hundreds of different stats, all of which are valued differently by each coach. Wouldn’t it be nice if there was simply one allencompassing number to determine a player’s value?

That’s where VPS comes in.

What it is: A statistic that factors in a number of traditional counting stats to provide a number that gives a more well-rounded indication of overall performance.

How it helps: VPS provides an all-encompassing look at how players and teams perform by weighing positive contributions against the negative. The resulting number shows how effective the player is. A VPS of 1 is considered average, while anything north of 2 is elite. Unlike counting stats, VPS isn’t affected by minutes. It takes into account how valuable a player or lineup was when on the court.

VPS = Points + REB + 2 * (AST + CHG + STL + BLK) FT Misses + 2 * (Misses + FOUL + TO)

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Because of how it’s formulated, it really gives an accurate depiction of how efficient a player is. For us, it’s next-level.

It breaks it down so quickly for us. We don’t have to look for anything. We don’t have to compute anything. We don’t have to really do anything except look at that VPS. Rob Brost, Bolingbrook High (Ill.) men’s coach

Lineup Data The definitive answer to who plays well together Few sports require as much chemistry as basketball.

Miscommunication can result in defensive lapses or turnovers, while some teammates are so in tune with one another they appear to have precognition. For whatever reason, certain groups of players perform better with one another, and your five most talented athletes may not be your most lethal combination. This is why lineup data is such an important statistic. Sometimes chemistry is easy to spot from the sidelines, but it’s always useful to have the data to back up your hypothesis.

What it is: A way to gauge how certain players perform when on the court together. Lineup data provides both traditional and advanced statistics for group performance.

How it helps: Lineup data helps coaches realize their most effective combinations. It is also useful in determining rotations for certain situations. For example, if a stop is needed late in the game, it would be wise to employ the lineup with the strongest defensive numbers.

eFG%

TO%

#1 J.Y #3 K.T. #30 M.B. #23 S.C. #4 I.C.

“

OREB

DREB

I rotate in a lot and I like that it shows me a pattern. If I’m in a situation where I need steals, I can know what group is best for that. If I need us to protect the ball and shoot free throws, I can see which group is best for that.

Since we rotate so much, it lets me know — depending on what situation I need — what grouping I can put in.

Chris Horton, Lone Oak High (Texas) women’s coach

Shot Charts When, where and how to find your hot spots The best way to craft an effective offense is to get your best shooters launching from where they’re most efficient.

Chasing that data led to the creation of the shot chart, as coaches often had assistants charting makes and misses from the bench or while watching the video afterward. But relegating a shot chart to a piece of paper is exercising only a fraction of its ability. Hudl allows you to craft nearly any shot chart —either for your team or an individual player— based on shot type, quarter/half and zone. You can call up your own shot chart or see how opponents have done against you, exposing holes in your defense.

What it is: A graphic that shows how often players or teams shoot from designated areas on the court and how accurate they are from those spots.

How it helps: Connected with video, shot charts show not only where a player is surging or struggling, but also why. Calling up the video allows coaches to truly decipher where their team has the most success. And the opposing team’s shot charts will reveal areas from where they are proficient, allowing for defensive adjustments.

00% 100%

0/1

50%

57%

1/2

4/7

0% 0/1

20%

1/1

1/5

50% 1/2

50%

83%

4/8

5/6

0% 0/1

33% 25% 1/4

1/3

0%

14% 1/7

0/2

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We really used to preach the in-between game, the pull-up jumper. Now I’ll let kids do it, but the percentages show that it’s just not a good shot.

So we do a five-out offense and spread the floor. We have a big man who can get doubled. We obviously don’t tell them to spot up at the elbow. We tell them to spot up at the 3. The trends in basketball are changing because of the analytics.

Greg Miller Robinsdale-Armstrong High School (Minn.) men’s coach

The Four Factors Get beyond the traditional counting stats.

In his 2004 book, Basketball on Paper, Dean Oliver unveiled the Four Factors, the four main traits that he believed help define winning teams – accurate shooting, strong rebounding, being turnover-averse and getting to the free-throw line. He then created statistics that show teams how they’re doing in these areas.

What it is: Effective field goal percentage factors in the added value of a made 3-pointer versus a 2-pointer; turnover percentage accounts for pace of play with typical turnover stats; offensive rebound percentage adjusts rebounding rate with pace; free throw factor measures how often a team or player gets to the foul line.

How it helps: Accounting for pace is very important in today’s game— the stats sheets of a walk-it-up team versus one that lives on fast breaks will look very different, but these numbers take that out of the equation. And while field goal percentage is useful, there’s no reason to value a 3-pointer and 2-pointer the same. One is more valuable, and effective field goal percentage provides that increased weight.

TO%

OREB%

eFG%

FTF

4 “

There are certain opponents that we know shoot well from a certain spot and this is a spot that we don’t defend well, maybe we’ll spend some extra time in practice defending this area so we’re not giving up points.

Greg Miller Robinsdale-Armstrong High School (Minn.) men’s coach

Plus-Minus The true evaluation of how a team performs with certain players on the court Plus-minus has become a favored stat among coaches because it shows how a team actually performed with a specific player on the floor. It goes beyond points, rebounds and other traditional stats, painting a more complete picture of that player’s contributions.

What it is: A statistic that monitors how the score changed when a player or lineup was on the floor. The higher the plus-minus, the better the team performed with that player in action.

How it helps: Plus-minus exposes empty stats. If a player put up 20 points but his team was outscored by 15 in the same window, he probably didn’t have a very effective game.

Plus-minus helps prop up the value of those who don’t stuff the stat sheet, such as rugged defenders or hustle players. It’s also a great way to find your most effective lineups. If a certain group is routinely outscoring the opposition when they’re on the court together, maybe that unit deserves more playing time.

Athlete Gabriela Webber Kadja Williams Nicole Sweet Corvette Ariza Rachel Fox

+/ 3.1 7.9 -5.4 8.8 -3.8

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When it comes down to it, numbers don’t lie. We’re up front about it. We’ll show (the players) the numbers. If you want more playing time, you’ve got to progress here. It gets us looking at the numbers outside of points, rebounds and assists.

Ryan Fretz, Clyde High School (Ohio) men’s coach

Advanced Stats Glossary Acronym

Full Name

Formula

A/TO

Assist/ turnover ratio

Assists/turnovers

DEFL

Deflections

Number of times a defensive player makes contact and redirects the ball

DREB%

Defensive rebound percentage

DREB

FTF

Free throw factor

FTA/FGA

eFG%

Effective field goal percentage

(FG + 0.5 * 3P)

OREB%

Offensive rebound percentage

OREB / (OREB + opponent DREB)

PiP

Points in the paint

Points scored inside the free-throw lane

(DREB + opponent OREB)

FGA

Acronym

Full Name

Formula

PoT

Points off turnovers

Points scored on the possession immediately following an opponent turnover

PPP

Points per possession

Points/possessions

SCP

Second chance points

Any points scored on a possession that included an offensive rebound

TO%

Turnover percentage

100 * TOV

TP

Transition points

Points scored on fast breaks

VPS

Value Point System

Points + REB + 2 * (AST + CHG + STL + BLK)

(FGA + 0.475 * FTA + TOV

FT Misses + 2 * (Misses + FOUL + TO)

Three Ways to Track Stats Tag Your Stats at the Game Have an assistant coach, injured player or parent use the Hudl iOS app to track team stats live at the game.

Tag After the Game Track team and player stats after the game as you rewatch it on an iPad or computer.

Visit hudl.com/support to learn how.

Leave it to us Send us your video through Hudl Assist and you’ll receive team and player stats in under 24 hours.

Visit hudlassist.com to get started.

However you get your breakdown, this is when the fun begins.

Each stat and shot chart is linked to video, allowing you to immediately call up playlists of clips pertaining to any number. Want to see why your team struggled with turnovers? One click pulls up video of each miscue.

Curious as to why your sharpshooter had an off game?

Take a look at the shot chart and click the cold areas to see how the defensive scheme affected her.

The stats revolution is here.