Projection of the future electricity demands 2021 2041 for rajasthan india and a sustainable develop

Projection of the Future Electricity Demands (2021-2041) for Rajasthan, India and a Sustainable Development Energy Model for Developing States Namrata Sengar1, Manpreet Kaur2, Kanwardeep Singh3 1

Department of Pure & Applied Physics, University of Kota, Kota, Rajasthan (India) Department of Renewable Energy, Rajasthan Technical University, Kota, Rajasthan (India) 3 Department of Civil Engineering, Rajasthan Technical University, Kota, Rajasthan (India)

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Abstract— Rajasthan is the largest state in India with per capita electricity consumption around 900 units per annum. It is moving ahead with electrification of villages but still struggling to provide power to all households. Present work addresses the issue of future electricity demands of Rajasthan with increase in population and per capita electricity consumption. The population projections have been done for year 2021, 2031 and 2041 through arithmetical increase, geometrical increase, incremental increase, uniform method and logistic curve methods. The electricity requirements have been calculated on the basis of population projections and assumed per capita electricity consumption. The projected electricity demands provide the base for the estimation of the required installation capacity of the power systems in future. The study indicates that if population and demands keep on increasing then by 2041, the installed capacity as large as 90 GW may be required.

A subcritical coal based thermal power plant of capacity 500MW produces carbon emissions of around 900g/kWh. Presently, 57% of the installed power plant capacity is from thermal power plants, which directly are source of carbon emissions and as installations need to be increased in future the carbon emission burden may become crucial. So with concerns for environment, carbon emissions and socio-economic developments it is essential to frame proper energy policies and start with measures right now to be able to cope with the future situations effectively. Thus to address this issue a model has been suggested which focuses on controlling population, increasing availability of electricity and managing demands. In order to make this model successful it is important that government, energy sector and academic institutions work in close collaboration.

Keywords—population projection; electricity demands; installed capacity; electricity generation; performance factor.

I. INTRODUCTION Rajasthan is the largest state of India with a wide spread area of 3,42,239 km2 which is almost 11% of the total geographical area of India. Population of Rajasthan is more than 74 millions with around 75% of the population residing in rural areas [1]. The density of population in Rajasthan by residence is 200 persons per square kilometers as per Census 2011 [2].

The total installed capacity of Rajasthan as on May 31, 2016 is 17924.27 MW and the generation during the year 2015-16 has been 67,205 MU. Out of the total installed capacity of 17924.27 MW, the share of renewable is 30% and the share of thermal power plants is 57% [3]. Presently the per capita electricity consumption in Rajasthan is around 900 units per year per person, this value is quite low looking at the world’s average and the per capita electricity consumption of the developed countries.

Though the situation of village and household electrification has improved during last decade still it is far from being satisfactory. In 2007 the percentage of villages electrified was 67%. Due to various schemes and programmes the situation in January 2016 was that almost 99% of the villages in Rajasthan have been electrified [4]. The villages are being connected with electric supply but still @IJRTER-2016, All Rights Reserved

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only around 71% of the total households in the state were electrified in 2014 with around 95% electrification of urban households and 63% electrification of rural households. As per the target of the State Government power shall be made available to all by 2019 [5].

For Rajasthan to move ahead with development process and to provide good living standards to its residents, it is essential to make a long term plan and policy to address the issues of energy considering environment at the same time. It is important to formulate an image plan of Rajasthan with comfortable living conditions for its residents with basic facilities of water and electricity conveniently available to all. For this, a perception for future demands is required and to attain the desired targets of developments in sustainable manner, proper routes need to be identified. The work presented here in this paper deals with the determination of the demands for electricity on the basis of projected population and assumed per capita electricity consumption for years 2021, 2031 and 2041. Thereafter possible routes are suggested and a model is presented to address the anticipated electricity demands in a clean, sustainable and economical manner with adequate utilization of the available resources.

II. POPULATION PROJECTIONS Electricity demands are directly affected by the population in that area and its living conditions therefore in order to develop a perception of the electricity demands for the years 2021, 2031 and 2041, the population of Rajasthan has been projected using arithmetical increase, geometrical increase, incremental increase, uniform method and logistic curve methods [6,7]. The basis of the calculations has been taken as the Census reported values of population from 1951 to 2011 shown in Table 1 and the population projections based on calculations have been presented in Table 2.

Arithmetical, geometrical, incremental increase and uniform methods are all based on the continuous increase in population whereas the logistic curve method assumes that population should saturate at a value. Here in this case the saturation is achieved in between years 2021 and 2031 and the value is 105713174, which is shown in table 2 for 2031 and 2041.

Table 1: Population of Rajasthan as per Census from 1951 to 2011.

Year 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Population 15971000 20156000 25765810 34361860 44005990 56473000 68548437

Increment 4185000 5609810 8596050 9644130 12467010 12075437

Table 2: Population projections for Rajasthan through different methods for year 2021, 2031 and 2041.

Methods Arithmetical increase method (M1) Geometrical increase method (M2) Incremental increase method (M3) Logistic curve method (M4) Uniform method (M5)

2021 77311343 86987966 78889430 100421712 87312133

Population projection 2031 86074249 110387729 90808511 105713174 111217688

2041 94837155 140082028 104305679 105713174 141668446

III. ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTION @IJRTER-2016, All Rights Reserved

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The electricity demands have been projected considering the projections for the population for year 2021, 2031 and 2041 and the assumed per capita electricity consumption as 1500, 2000, 2500 and 3000 units per annum. The electricity requirement has been calculated by taking product of the population projection and the assumed per capita electricity consumption. The results are presented in Table 3 in million units (MU) where one unit (U) is one kWh. Presently the per capita electricity consumption in Rajasthan is around 900 units per annum. The projections for electricity requirement corresponding to the assumed values of 1500, 2000, 2500 and 3000 units have been done to create a picture of the variations in demand. This is helpful in deciding suitable routes and planning a model.

Table 3: Electricity requirements per annum for different assumed values of per capita electricity consumption for projected population

Assumed per capita electricity consumption For 1500 units

For 2000 units

For 2500 units

For 3000 units

Population projection method M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5

Electricity requirements per annum (MU) 2021 2031 2041 115967 129111.4 142255.7 130481.9 165581.6 210123 118334.1 136212.8 156458.5 150632.6 158569.8 158569.8 130968.2 166826.5 212502.7 154622.68 172148.49 189674.31 173975.93 220775.45 280164.05 157778.86 181617.02 208611.35 200843.42 211426.35 211426.35 174624.26 222435.37 283336.89 193278.35 215185.62 237092.88 217469.91 275969.32 350205.07 197223.57 227021.27 260764.19 251054.28 264282.94 264282.94 218280.33 278044.22 354171.11 231934 258222.74 284511.46 260963.89 331163.18 420246.08 236668.29 272425.53 312917.03 301265.13 317139.52 317139.52 261936.4 333653.06 425005.33

IV. DEFINING K-FACTOR AND ESTIMATING REQUIRED INSTALLATION CAPACITY Due to various factors such as losses at different levels, dysfunction, non-operation, unavailability of resources etc., the increase in installed capacity may not show an equal increase in generation. In order to determine the required installation capacity from the projected electricity demands it is important to know the ratio of actual generation to the maximum possible generation for an installed capacity. Therefore, it becomes important to observe the trend of generation from the installed capacity in past years and to determine the overall performance. The installed capacity and actual generation annually for years 2012-15 have been presented in Table 4 [5,8]. In order to assess the performance, a dimensionless factor has been defined here in the present work and named as overall annual performance factor (K). This factor is a ratio of the electricity available in a particular year (MU) to the maximum possible generation that can be achieved from the total installed capacity (MU). The maximum possible generation (MU) that can be achieved in a year from the total installed capacity has been calculated as

Maximum possible generation (MU) = Installed capacity (MW) x365x24/1000 @IJRTER-2016, All Rights Reserved

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It is presented in Table 4 along with the value of K-factor for years 2012-15.

Table 4: Estimation of overall annual performance factor K on basis of total actual generation and maximum possible generation for a particular installed capacity of Rajasthan.

Year

2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Installed Total actual Maximum capacity generation generation (MW) (MU) possible (MU) 10308.45 53868 90302.02 12276.76 58042 107533.82 15229.55 65325 1258953.03 15926.87 67205 139519.38

Overall annual Average K-factor performance factor K 0.60 0.54 0.52 0.48

0.53

From the table it can be seen that K-factor lies between 0.6 and 0.48 for the years 2012-15. There is continuous decrease in K-factor indicating that with the increase in installed capacity the generation is not increasing proportionally. Thus there is a strong need for performance assessment of power plants, identification of losses and factors responsible for affecting performance and observing power generation situation as a whole in Rajasthan. One of the reasons for this variation may be attributed to the fact that in past years renewable energy power plants have added to installed capacity but their installed capacity is for peak (MWp) and generation is dependent on availability of required solar radiation/wind etc. Other reasons may be losses, dysfunction, non-operation etc.

For the present work in order to estimate the required installation capacity the average of K-factor has been used, assuming it to be constant at 0.53 for 2021-41. The required capacity to be installed (MW) as per the population and electricity demand projections has been calculated as Required installation (MW)= projected electricity requirement (MU)/(K-factorx365x24) The results are presented in Table 5.

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Table 5: Required installation capacity for year 2021, 2031 and 2041 for different population projections and assumed per capita electricity consumption.

Assumed per capita electricity consumption (units per annum) For 1500

For 2000

For 2500

Population projection method M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5

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Required installation capacity (MW) 2021 24977.815 28104.14 25487.658 32444.344 28208.883 33303.76 37472.2 33983.56 43259.12 37611.84 41629.7 46840.25 42479.45 54073.9 47014.8

2031 27808.95 35664.17 29338.49 34153.92 35932.31 37078.59 47552.22 39117.99 45538.54 47909.75 46348.24 59440.28 48897.49 56923.18 59887.18

2041 30640.07 45257.83 33699.17 34153.92 45770.37 40853.43 60343.77 44932.23 45538.54 61027.16 51066.79 75429.71 56165.29 56923.18 76283.95 223

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For 3000

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5

49955.63 56208.3 50975.34 64888.67 56417.77

55617.89 71328.33 58676.99 68307.81 71864.62

61280.15 90515.65 67398.34 68307.81 91540.74

Thus depending on the population and per capita electricity consumption the requirement of installation may vary from around 25 GW to 65 GW for year 2021, 27 GW to 72 GW for 2031 and around 30 GW to 92 GW for year 2041, though the lower values seem feasible for 2021 as per capita electricity consumption cannot increase drastically so soon.

V. MODEL TO ADDRESS THE ELECTRICITY DEMAND From the present installed capacity of 17.9 GW in 2016 it is required to move to around 92 GW for a population of around 140 million with per capita electricity consumption of 3000 units per annum, which is almost five times the present capacity. Proper plans and policies are required to address the future electricity demand and for this various factors need to be considered. A sustainable development model has been presented here considering various aspects and mainly focusing on three important steps- controlling population increase, increasing availability of electricity and managing demands as shown in Figure 1.

VI. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION From table 2 it can be seen that through different methods the population projections seem to vary from 77 million to 110 million for year 2021 and for year 2041 the highest value is around 140 million. The logistic curve method is based on saturation approach and therefore according to it saturation shall be achieved at a value of around 106 million in between years 2021 and 2031. Table 3 shows the electricity demands or requirement in million units per annum which may be as high as 425 thousand million units in 2041. Corresponding to the electricity requirements presented in table 3, the required installation capacity has been calculated considering K-factor as shown in table 5 which may be more than 90 GW in 2041.

Looking at the figures mentioned above, it becomes a matter of concern to address the problem of adequate electricity availability to all in sufficient manner to sustain growth and development of Rajasthan in next 25 years. It is not possible and also not feasible to increase the installed capacity without proper planning as electricity generation has major implications on environment too. A subcritical coal based thermal power plant of capacity 500MW produces carbon emissions of around 900g/kWh [9]. The emissions tend to reduce for supercritical coal based plants but that result in increased cost. Further coal based power plants have dependence on availability of suitable coal also.

Hydro, nuclear, solar and wind power plants do not cause carbon emissions and may be promoted but Rajasthan does not have much water bodies to harness hydro power and nuclear fuel availability is also a matter of concern. Rajasthan has good solar and wind potential- around 142 GWp of solar and around 5000 MW of wind potential [10]. Thus the need is to consider various aspects and make a plan for next 25 years to be in a comfortable situation in 2041.

Another matter of concern is that though the installed capacity is increasing, the increase in generation is not proportionate. Presently there is no separate body to monitor the performance of the decentralized and stand alone systems. Monitoring mechanism needs to be developed for performance assessment of renewable energy plants which are getting installed and will be installed in future. With increased targets of 175 GW of renewable energy till 2022, it becomes important to focus attention on developing monitoring mechanism and suitable policies.

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Fig. 1 Model to address future electricity demands

For sustainable development of Rajasthan the model presented in Figure 1 may be adopted for policy formulation. Work is required to be carried out in three major directions of controlling population, increasing availability of electricity and controlling and managing demands. It may be feasible to limit the population to saturation level of 106 million and to keep the per capita electricity consumption per annum at 2500 units, which is almost three times the present. Energy auditing should be made mandatory at various levels, energy efficiency and conservation should be aggressively promoted, losses should be reduced, attention should be paid to energy efficient building design and solar based technologies should be promoted. These measures may help in keeping the per capita electricity consumption low even with desired living standards and development levels and installation of many power plants can be avoided.

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The implementation of these steps require increase in awareness level, enhancement in related skills, suitable policy formulations and research and development as per local conditions and issues of Rajasthan. For this close collaboration between government, energy sector and academic institutions like universities will be required. Universities can be equipped with facilities for imparting skills in energy auditing, solar, wind, energy, efficient building designs, power plant technologies etc. and post graduate and PhD students may be assigned tasks for auditing and monitoring in a planned manner, which will provide students with practical experience and generate useful data for policy framing and future actions.

VII. CONCLUSIONS This study based on population projection and projection of electricity demands for 2021-2041 indicates that in order to cope with the electricity requirements in future it is important to control population, increase availability of electricity and to manage the demands. Energy auditing and implementation of energy conservation and efficiency measures need to be promoted with top priority at both generation end and consumer end. Losses, thefts and dysfunctional units should be paid attention and rectified. Proper monitoring mechanism should be developed for renewable energy power plants, including the decentralized systems. Buildings should be designed for maximizing thermal comfort and lowering energy consumption. Rajasthan has large solar potential which should be effectively tapped for residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural purposes wherever possible. For successfully implementing this model it is important to increase awareness level, promote indigenous research and development, skill development and favourable policies, this requires close collaboration between government, energy sector and academic institutions.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT -Authors gratefully acknowledge the support and suggestions of Prof. K.V. S. Rao, Rajasthan Technical University, Kota, India in this work.

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