Electrical Load Forecasting Between 2015 and 2035 for Turkey Using Mathematical Modeling and Dynamic

IJSTE - International Journal of Science Technology & Engineering | Volume 2 | Issue 08 | February 2016 ISSN (online): 2349-784X

Electrical Load Forecasting between 2015 and 2035 for Turkey using Mathematical Modelling and Dynamic Programming Hayri Oğurlu Corresponding Author Department of Electrical Engineering Regional Directorate of Turkish Electricity Transmission Company, Konya, TURKEY

Nurettin Çetinkaya Assistant Professor Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering Selcuk University, Konya, TURKEY

Abstract This study, tried to explain the importance of planning studies about providing electrical energy to consumers with high quality, constantly and economic. The most important aspect of the planning, it is known that the load forecast. Up to now, many different load forecasting methods have been used. Some of these can be listed as Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Nonlinear Regression (NLR) and Optimized Grey Method (OGM). In this article; proposed model for load forecasting was created using Mathematical Model (MM) and Special Coefficients Dynamic Programming (SCDP). The data obtained by these two models are compared with other models. Accordingly, using energy consumption data for the past year, MM and SCDP models are created and energy forecast is made for next year.

Keywords: Electric Load Forecasting, Non Linear Regression, Particle Swarm Optimization, Artificial Neural Network, Ant Colony Optimization, Special Coefficients Dynamic Programming, Mathematical Model ________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I. INTRODUCTION Energy production, transmission and distribution planning are critical elements in developing countries. Therefore, a study about effective and efficient use of electrical energy has been one of the most important items on the agenda today. Total energy consumption has getting an important level of economic development of countries. Therefore, the relationship of economic development with electric energy is increasing.

Electricity demand in Turkey continues to increase, in parallel with urbanization, population, industrialization and wealth.

Electricity consumption in Turkey for last 40 years has grown at a rate of mean 10% per year. Last 20 years, this growth rate declined to approximately 8.5%.

With the understanding of the importance of the issue of planning, significant developments in this area has started to experience. Various studies used different methods in this area were tried to be explained. There are many methods for making forecast. This method can be categorized in to two main parts: parametric methods and artificial intelligence methods. The artificial intelligence methods are further classified in to neural networks [1, 2, 3], genetic algorithms [4], wavelet networks [5], fuzzy logics [6], ANFIS [7], expert system [8]. The parametric methods are based on connections of the load demand to its affecting factors like population and income by a mathematical model [9, 10]. Parametric load forecasting methods can be generally categorized by regression methods and time series prediction methods [11].

II. LOAD FORECASTING STUDIES APPLIED IN TURKEY Especially in recent years, many different methods were used for “electrical load forecasting". These methods are mostly made by linear and nonlinear regression analysis, genetic algorithm, artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic method. A list of the studies on load forecasting in Turkey is given in Table 1.

Ref. [13] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19]

Table - 1 Load Forecasting Studis Method Forecasting For Genetic Algorithm Energy Demand Artificial Neural Networks Net Energy Consumption Linear Mathematical Model Electric Energy Demand Artificial Neural Networks Energy Demand Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model Electric Energy Demand Grey Prediction With Rolling Mechanism Approach Electric Energy Demand

Data 1970-2001 1975-2003 1980-2001 1975-2003 1984-2004

Forecasted Year 2002-2025 2004-2020 2004-2020 2005-2014

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Electrical Load Forecasting between 2015 and 2035 for Turkey using Mathematical Modelling and Dynamic Programming (IJSTE/ Volume 2 / Issue 08 / 053)

[20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

(Total and Industrial) Energy Demand Net Energy Consumption Energy Demand Energy Consumption Annual Energy Demand

Ant Colony Optimization Artificial Neural Network Particle Swarm Optimization Artificial Neural Networks Fuzzy Logic Method

1979-2005 1968-2005 1979-2005 1975-2006 1975-2007

2006-2025 2006-2025 2007-2025 2008-2020

Genetic algorithm model has been used for "forecasting energy consumptions" by Canyurt [12]. Ozturk estimated electric energy demand by using genetic algorithm using GNP, population and import-export data [13]. Sozen forecast the total energy consumption by using ANN model [14]. Tunc created "a linear mathematical model" to predict future electric demand of Turkey [15]. Sozen and Arcaklioglu developed equations for forecasting consumption of electric energy until 2020 by using ANN technique [16]. Erdogdu illustrated and used an ARIMA model for predict net electricity consumption [17]. Akay and Atak developed a grey prediction (GP) approach for forecast Turkey’s total electric consumption [18]. Toksari modeled an ant colony optimization model (ACO) to forecast energy load of Turkey [19]. ANN was used to predict net energy consumption of Turkey

by Sozen and Arcaklioglu [20]. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was proposed by Unler [21]. Kavaklioglu performed a study; to develop ANN models by using economic indicators for forecast electricity consumption [22]. Turkey’s short term annual electricity demand was predicted by applying fuzzy logic methodology [23].

III. ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTING The first and most important step of the power system planning is “load forecasting”. The prediction of electricity demand studies assessed in three classes; short-term forecast: hourly, daily or weekly, medium-term forecast: a monthly, quarterly, annual and long-term forecast: more than one year periods [24]. For an effective system planning, estimating the peak load and the total energy requirement is needed. This is also very important for planning the production system.

For short-term load forecasting; time factor, electrical data and other factors such as customer classes, come to the fore. Medium and long-term forecasts; take into historical data, electrical data, different customers, application area, economic data and forecasts of their future. The factors influence on load forecasting are social development plan, past years' data, industrial plans, population and demographic changes, urban and rural area rates technological developments, electricity price, climate and seasonal changes and time.

Some of these factors have directly and significantly impact on the estimates. Some of them have indirect and weaker effect on the estimates. In addition, the above factors are interactions between each other. This situation leads to the emergence of more complex equations for the estimates.

IV. PROPOSED LOAD FORECASTING MODELS Two methods are proposed for load forecasting in this paper. Firstly mathematical modeling and lastly special coefficients dynamic programming are explained. There are many different ways as mentioned above. However, MM and SCDP provides a practical way to obtain highly realistic results. A plurality of data must be used to obtain accurate results. However, this data is not always easy to obtain. The reliability of data to be used is another problem. Therefore, using the most reliable data should be trying to achieve the most accurate results.

Variables to be used for the applications are given below. Independent variables are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population data. Dependent variables are the last 15 years the value of the total energy consumption and peak energy values. For GDP data; Turkey's economic growth on average of 3%, 7% and 10% will be assumed. Coefficients on the independent variables will be calculated with the formula in the multivariate regression model. These are: (2) y  n bˆ  x bˆ  x bˆ

  yx  yx

1

2

3



2

3

3

x 2 bˆ1   x 2 bˆ2   x 2 x 3 bˆ3

(3)

x 3 bˆ2   x 3 bˆ3

(4)

   x bˆ   x 



2

3 1

2

2

2

To calculate the accuracy of the results of the estimate, Main Absolute Error (MAE) and Main Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) equations are used.

1 MAE = ∑ni=1|ei | (5) n

1

e

n

yi

MAPE = ∑ni=1 | i | 100

(6)

The used data are peak energy consumption, total energy consumption, GDP and population data between 1999 and 2014 years. Obtained values are GDP projections and population projections between 2015 and 2035 years.

Values between the dates indicated, GDP and population data from 1999-2014 year are used as independent variables.

Mathematical models has been formed and tried to predict two different types of data. These data are Peak Load Demand (PLD) and Total Energy Demand (TED). Table 2 shows the dependent and independent variables.

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Electrical Load Forecasting between 2015 and 2035 for Turkey using Mathematical Modelling and Dynamic Programming (IJSTE/ Volume 2 / Issue 08 / 053)

Years 1999 2005 2010 2014

Table - 2 The data used for forecasting PED TED GDP POP [MW] [GWh] [TL] (x1000) 18.938 118.485 1.071 63.366 25.174 160.794 1.320 68.582 33.392 210.434 1.448 73.723 41.003 254.278 1.640 77.323

Table 3 shows the population estimates for the years 2015-2035. In addition, estimates of GDP in the same year are also can be seen. These estimates are presented in three different scenarios.

Years 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Table - 3 2015-2035 Projection data (POP & GDP) GDP [TL] POP (x1000) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 1.689 1.755 1.804 78.152 1.958 2.461 2.905 82.077 2.270 3.452 4.679 85.569 2.632 4.842 7.536 88.428 3.051 6.346 12.136 90.680

Peak Load Demand Forecast (PLD): The mathematical model will be created by the linear regression equation. Here b2 shows the population, b3 represents the value of GDP. Mathematical model according to the data available are given below: f(x)  (b )  0,768  (b )  14,629  46.074,7 (7) 2 3 Values written in the above equation and the results obtained are given in Table 4. These results are compared with the actual values. Calculated MAPE value shows that equation gives results close to real values.

Table - 4 Error rate of the PED forecast results Years

Real Values

MM

Relative Error

MAPE (%)

1999 2005 2010 2014

18.938 25.174 33.392 41.003

18.258 25.907 31.727 37.301

680 733 1.665 -3.702

3,658

As can be seen in Table 5, when GDP and population data used in estimating equations; results are very close to the MAED results. If the number of energy-related data will be used to estimate increases, estimated results will be closer to the real value.

However, to be more useful equation, these two variables are suitable for use as the main input variable. If different reliable data obtained with; it can be used in the equation as independent variables.

Table - 5 Forecasted values for PED PED TEIAS Year [MW] [MW] 2015 39.617 41.850 2018 47.237 49.290 2020 52.965 55.060 2023 62.735 64.040 2025 70.141 70.120 2030 92.665 2035 122.906

Total Energy Demand Forecast (TED): The second kind of data will be estimated using a mathematical model, the annual total energy demand. Up to 2014 GDP, population, energy data has been used to create a mathematical model. This equation is given below. f(x)  (b 2 )  7,676  (b 3 )  61,608  439.586,38 (8) The results obtained with this equation is compared with values for the past years. MAPE values were calculated for each model are given in Table 6. GDP and population projection data are used in the MM above. These values are compared with the results of different models in the literature Figure 1 is obtained.

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Electrical Load Forecasting between 2015 and 2035 for Turkey using Mathematical Modelling and Dynamic Programming (IJSTE/ Volume 2 / Issue 08 / 053)

Table - 6 MAPE values for TED Time Interval MM 2000-2014 SCDP 2000-2014 TEÄ°AĹž MAED 2007-2014 Hamzacebi OGM 2010-2014 Kavaklioglu ANN 2007-2014 Bilgili NLR 2004-2014 Toksari ACO 2000-2006

MAPE 2,1 2,5 13,2 19,1 16,9 15,5 1,6

Fig. 1: 2015-2035 TED forecasted values

Dynamic programming with respect to time can be performed forecasting problem solving. The coefficients proposed new algorithm makes it possible to intervene following are available to improve the accuracy of these solutions. This coefficient should be able to estimate the socio-economic situation of the region made a very good level of analysis. Proposed dynamic programming algorithm with special coefficients solution method was developed. Load forecasting problem is solved with SCDP given below.

1) Step 1 Start, read time-dependent variables (population, income, etc.)

2) Step 2 Calculate the rate of change of variable 3) Step 3 Determining the amount of activity 4) Step 4 Take the weight coefficients 5) Step 5 Calculate the energy consumption 6) Step 6 If n=last number then go to step 9, 7) Step 7 n=n+1, g oto step 2 8) Step 8 Compose consumption, stop.

The results obtained from a mathematical model for the years 2015-2035 are shown in Table 7. According to this table SCDP and MM gives results very close to MAED results. MAPE values were calculated for the forecast results and these values are shown in Table 8. Results of MAED model is taken as the base value for the MAPE value calculation.

Table - 7 Forecasted values for TED [GWh] Year MM SCDP MAED 2015 268.478 268.312 271.450 2018 311.228 310.716 319.980 2020 342.129 341.678 357.430 2023 392.913 390.843 415.680 2025 429.978 427.575 455.960 2030 537.531 535.128 2035 674.897 670.522

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Electrical Load Forecasting between 2015 and 2035 for Turkey using Mathematical Modelling and Dynamic Programming (IJSTE/ Volume 2 / Issue 08 / 053)

Table - 8 MAPE values comparison for 2015-2035 years. (Base value = MAED) Method MM SCDP OGM ANN PSO MAPE 3,82 2,87 17,8 32,2 20,5

V. CONCLUSION In this study; between 2015 and 2035 years, amount of the total annual energy consumed and the amount of energy consumed in peak days were forecasted. TEIAS and TSI data are used between the years 1999-2014. The data obtained from the estimates is compared with the other studies which have done using different methods. Comparison is made with many previous studies such as ANN, OGM, PSO and MAED. When examined the error rates of the proposed mathematical modeling, it’s clearly seen that it can be used in practice. According to these results, the GDP and population data revealed quite realistic results when used for mathematical models. The MAPE ratio of the MM and SCDP compared with other methods; MM gave a lower error value. MM and SCDP models, both in terms of practicality and to obtain more accurate results can be considered more advantageous.

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