Figure 1: Population pyramids for South Africa showing demographic transition

As of the most recent mid-year population estimates for 2021, South Africa’s population is currently estimated to be around 60.1 million people.11 This is almost 1.6 million higher than the 2012 National Development Plan (NDP)’s – somewhat ambitious –projections for 2030.12 In a more conservative projection, The 2019 United Nations World Population Prospectus estimated that South Africa’s population would be closer to 66 million by 2030.13 How should we read these demographic changes?

2.1 The ‘demographic transition’

South Africa is currently undergoing a (much awaited) ‘demographic transition’. As fertility rates decline and life is extended, the ratio of working-age people to ‘dependents’ is shifting, producing a swell in the economically productive youth population and associated hopes for an economic boom. Already 34% of the population are between the ages of 14 and 34 years,14 with the dependency ratio set to drop by a further 14% by 2050.13 This is often described as a demographic or youth ‘dividend’.

South Africa’s demographic transition is illustrated in the three population pyramids shown below in Figure 1.15 Lower fertility rates are depicted by the shrinking of the base of the pyramid (the under-15 population) and the widening of the middle of the pyramid (the working-age population aged 15 to 65).16,17

Figure 1: Population pyramids for South Africa showing demographic transition

South Africa is currently experiencing a bulge in its working-age population and can expect to see growing elderly and shrinking child populations as it approaches 2050. Source: PopulationPyramid.net, 2021