SUDEEPMAHESHWARI

WINNING IN INDIA’S PETROCHEMICAL MARKET

The market is projected to grow at around 8 per cent CAGR over the next 15 years and India will need more than 15 world-scale petrochemicals assets by 2035 to meet its domestic demand

SUDEEP MAHESHWARI

SR. PRINCIPAL, KEARNEY, (MANAN SHAH AND NEIL MERCHANT)

TThe petrochemicals sector is projected to emerge as the primary driver of growth for the global oil and gas sector, accounting for more than a third of incremental oil and gas demand by 2030. This trend is being driven by the overall growth and profitability of petrochemical products and stagnating global demand for fuel. The global petrochemicals landscape has been facing significant uncertainties and volatility in the recent past — including the recent wave of global trade restrictions, growing environmental headwinds emerging from the circular economy mega trend and rising ban on single-use plastic as well as COVID-19 led demand shock. Over the next decade, growing Asian capacity, coupled with the significant expansion plans of select players in the US and the Middle East, is projected to create excess supply across select key petrochemical chains. This evolving supply-demand landscape could potentially disrupt traditional petrochemicals trade routes and market setups.

Amid this growing global volatility, India has emerged as an island of hope for petrochemicals. With significant

“M&A activity among complementary players can help create world-scale businesses that are greater than the sum of their parts”

“A robust portfolio strategy for the Indian petrochemicals sector needs to build in flexibility for product evolution over time”

import dependence and high-demand growth, India is one of the world’s most attractive markets for new petrochemicals. COVID-19 resulted in a short term demand shock but the market has recovered sharply since October 2020. The sector has shown significant resilience and the long-term growth story remains intact. The market is projected to grow at around 8 per cent CAGR over the next 15 years (see figure 1), and India will need more than 15 world-scale petrochemicals assets by 2035 to meet its domestic demand. Given this, India’s petrochemical sector is now witnessing a significant investment boom, attracting capital from both domestic and international players, to set up several multibillion-dollar assets.

Six trends will shape the Indian petrochemicals landscape over the next decade. Gold rush for petrochemicals: India’s petrochemicals capacity is projected to grow by more than 30 per cent between 2017–2025. The number of domestic refinery-linked petrochemical assets is expected to grow from 12 in 2010 to 19 in 2030. Also, new refinery expansion projects and greenfield refineries are being built with an integrated petrochemical configuration, with HRRL, HMEL, and the West Coast refinery being notable examples. Availability of these petrochemical building blocks will create a snowball effect for downstream setups in India.

The dichotomy of oversupply and defi-

cit: At an industry level, petrochemical demand is expected to outpace supply, leading to a continued net deficit across most molecular chains. However, this demand-supply picture is more nuanced for several key products. For example, India is a net exporter of benzene and butadiene. However, it continues to have a significant deficit in downstream products such as styrene, polycarbonates, and butyl rubber. Similarly, India is balanced to slightly surplus in polypropylene but the rest of the C3 chain (e.g. acrylics, oxoalcohols, etc.) are largely absent. Even for products that are in surplus, select grades continue to be imported in significant quantities.

Choice of feedstock platform: Historically, naphtha has been the dominant feedstock in India. However, improving the availability of alternate feedstocks like shale gas is likely to challenge this status quo. Globally, several established players in the western world have upgraded their assets to increase flexibility in their production to improve long-term competitiveness. In India, Reliance has already installed an off-gas cracker complex of about 1.5 MMT with the capability to use both propane and ethane as feedstock. Going forward, Indian petrochemical players will need to carefully assess the Capex versus Opex implications of building feedstock flexibility in their existing and upcoming petrochemical assets to mitigate risks and build a long-term competitive advantage.

Partnerships to go far and fast: Indian petrochemicals industry has primarily grown through organic expansions. However, the industry is increasingly opening to mergers and acquisitions

(M&A). First, global oil and gas, and chemical giants are targeting big-ticket investments in established domestic companies to pave their entry into India. Second, strategic partnerships are emerging between global and domestic players to leverage the former’s technological expertise and the latter’s understanding of the Indian market. For example, Indian public sector undertakings (PSUs), Saudi Aramco, and ADNOC are evaluating setting up a West Coast refinery/petrochemicals complex with a total investment of US $ 45 billion and a petrochemical capacity of 18 MMT. Finally, global players are also targeting niche manufacturers to diversify downstream, like DSM India acquiring SRF’s engineering plastics business. The enhanced pace of M&A opportunities in the Indian petrochemicals market can potentially shift competition dynamics, with India emerging as the next frontier for growth.

The massive push to go green: The global sustainability megatrend, driven by changing consumer preferences, nongovernmental organization (NGO) activism, and a push from regulators, is driving petrochemical producers to focus substantially on embedding sustainable practices across their business.

In India, environmental action has taken the form of state governments enacting stricter regulations to ban single-use plastics. A much-discussed nationwide ban on single-use plastics is projected to impact plastic consumption by 10 per cent. In the coming decade, we expect sustainability and the circular economy to drive steady disruption across the petrochemicals landscape, leading to the emergence of new stakeholders (for example, recyclers) and new partnership models in the value chain.

Dynamic regulatory environment for

trade: We expect the evolving regulatory environment for trade to continue to be a significant driver of market dynamics in the Indian petrochemical industry. As the demand-supply situation continues to evolve across product categories, we expect the regulatory framework to also evolve in terms of change in tariff structures or other non-tariff mechanisms – e.g. recent increase in PVC duties from 7.5 per cent to 10 per cent in 2019. This could change the competitiveness of global imports vis-à-vis domestic players. Overall, incumbents and new entrants will need to factor in a dynamic regulatory environment as they prepare their business plans for India.

Five imperatives for riding the petro-

chemicals wave: The coming decade in India’s petrochemical opportunity is likely to be characterised by substantial opportunities and disruptions. We see five key imperatives for players going forward.

Place the right portfolio bets: Investing in the right molecular chains and evolving a robust product portfolio will differentiate players in the long-term. A robust portfolio strategy for the Indian petrochemicals sector needs to build flexibility for product evolution over time, product switches for netback optimization, and synergistic offerings for high-value propositions. Incumbents focusing on commodity products will need to identify downstream derivatives for their next wave of growth while ensuring healthy returns and synergies from existing portfolios. New entrants can enter one of the white spaces in downstream petrochemicals products or expand into competitive segments with a better value proposition. Finally, niche petrochemicals and speciality players that depend on large petrochemical facilities for feedstock need to re-evaluate the availability of intermediates and building blocks amid rising domestic petrochemical capacities.

Adopt differentiated go-to-market mod-

els: Indian GTM models have seen limited differentiation, and most channel partners have often added limited value beyond expanding customer reach and extending credit to customers. While these models have served well so far, we expect a significant evolution driven by three fundamental shifts.

First, with surging competition from export-oriented global capacities, margins in commodity products will increasingly be under pressure. As a result, Indian players will need to start moving towards low-overhead, no-frills, digital-first models.

Second, as end applications become more sophisticated, customers will demand more from suppliers. Petro-

chemical producers will need to invest in developing tailored offerings, such as joint application development, product testing, or other services that have a significant bearing on customer buying decisions. This will require building strong in-house technical capabilities and reorienting the salesforce towards value-based selling.

Third, while channel partners will remain important, the channel mix will need to evolve with market changes. Partners will need to evolve as digital adoption, improved supply chain infrastructure, and increased availability of formal credit make the traditional intermediaries business model redundant. Going forward, producers will need to rethink the channel structure and strike the right mix of small versus large channel partners as they diversify their product portfolio, grow volumes, and cater to evolving customer needs.

Undertake digital-enabled P&L RESET:

Operational excellence will remain a key success driver for Indian petrochemical players. Given legacy cost structures associated with some incumbents’ older assets, a focused enterprise-wide P&L RESET might be warranted. A successful P&L RESET begins with a bold, nonnegotiable target (for example, 2x EBIT within 18 months). Senior leadership needs to energize the program through their total commitment and support it with the right capabilities, processes, and enablers.

Companies can leverage six levers as they embark on a P&L transformation journey. 1. Pricing excellence can provide 2 to 5 per cent improvement in the topline and profitability: For chemical commodities, it is critical to identify a comprehensive set of price drivers, not just market-related, but also customer- and order-specific.

Players need to move away from subjective “gut” calls to more analytics-driven processes to arrive at customer-specific target pricing. For speciality chemicals, it is critical to establish transparent costs and margins for stock-keeping units, and a value-based pricing approach to extract maximum value. 2. A zero-based approach is highly effective to drive leaner organizational costs. Starting from a zero-base challenges legacy costs, ties costs to specific functions and activities and establishes transparency to avoid blanket changes. Such an approach can drive 10 to 15 per cent improvement in sales, general, and administrative costs. 3. External spend on materials and services often represents more than 70 per cent of the total costs. Strategic sourcing levers combined with analytical enablers can unlock tremendous value within this spend. Players must take a business-driven approach and prioritize the right analytical enablers as they extract maximum value from their suppliers. 4. Digital-led efficiency improvements in manufacturing and supply chain operations present the biggest area of opportunity, which was not traditionally available. For example, petrochemical plants generate vast amounts of data, which can now be processed using machine learningbased advanced algorithms to drive yield improvements without Capex investments. Overall, players can reduce conversion costs by 5 to 10 per cent by embracing digital operations. 5. Working capital optimization represents another opportunity to derive value. Scientific inventory norms based on factors such as safety stock, cycle stock, and service level can help optimize raw material and finished goods inventory. Smart management of accounts receivables and payables is another area that can free up cash from the balance sheet. 6. With the upcoming wave of investment in petrochemicals, players