INDIA NEWS
Apr 1-15, 2022 - Vol 2, Issue 18
WORLD THIS WEEK A publication of the National Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru
Compiled by Avishka Ashok, D Suba Chandran, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, Angkuran Dey and Meghna Manoj
China: A careful strategy on Russia and Ukraine
What happened? On 18 March, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a video conference to discuss the crisis in Eastern Europe and other bilateral issues between the countries. Xi encouraged the US and NATO to engage with Russia directly to resolve the Ukraine issues. President Xi referred to the situation and said: “Let whoever tied the bell on the tiger’s neck take it off.” He used the wellknown Chinese proverb to imply that the US and NATO must undo their actions to bring peace in the region. A senior official from the US referred to the call and said: “The president really laid out in a lot of detail the unified response from not only governments around the world, but also the private sector to Russia’s brutal aggression in Ukraine.” Xi Jinping also spoke of the Taiwan issue and said: “If the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, it will have a subversive impact on the relationship between the two.” On 16 March, Global Times reported that Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian addressed a press briefing and warned the US against sanctioning China. He reprimanded the US for its double standards where it threatened to impose sanctions and aimed at better trade and cooperation. On the same day, the Guardian reported that the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison had confirmed the decision to support its allies and partners in imposing sanctions on China if Beijing decides to supply weapons to Russia. On 17 March, Zhao Lijian in a press briefing responded to Japan’s remarks urging China to be responsible for Ukraine’s crisis. Japan also imposed sanctions on Russia and the US, and other countries for its actions in Ukraine. On 14 March, the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and China’s top diplomat and member of the Political Bureau Yang Jiechi held a seven hourlong meeting in Rome to discuss China’s military aid to Russia and its consequences to Ukraine. The Whitehouse readout said:
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“Sullivan raised a range of issues in US-China relations, with substantial discussion of Russia’s war against Ukraine. They also underscored the importance of maintaining open lines of communication between the United States and China.” On 15 March, Xinhua Net reported on the meeting in Rome and said that the officials discussed bilateral issues and other issues of international and regional importance. The report mentioned the discussion on the cooperation over the Taiwan issue, Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, Iran nuclear issue and the Afghanistan issue. The Chinese media barely mentioned the discussion on Ukraine. What does this mean?
China’s response is measured. It has economic interests in Russia and is keen to prevent any fallouts to its investments due to sanctions on Russia. On the other hand, China also has an economic interest in Ukraine, through the BRI. The Chinese media and other research institutes believe that the meeting in Rome aimed to force China to pick a side on the issue. However, the outcome of the meeting did not change China’s neutral stance as it continues to portray the issue as a grey area. Although the US placed heightened emphasis on the crisis in Eastern Europe, China seems to have downplayed the urgency of the issue during the meeting in Rome. The threat of sanctions and the economic implications on its domestic economy are major contributors to China’s mild approach to the issue. China wishes to remain uninvolved in the war. However, given its relations with Russia and Ukraine and the role played by China as a major superpower, remaining neutral may not be an option in this war. Second, the North Korean upper hand. Pyongyang has been pushing for the development of nuclear weapons with ICBMs as its priority. The North here gains supremacy over South Korea, paralyzing Seoul's defense posture and strategic planning. In a broader aperture, South Korea walks on a tightrope and questions the sustainability of South Korea's strategic ambiguity.
The US and Europe: Isolate Moscow, without a direct military engagement
published by the White House referred to the telephone conversation between the American and Chinese Presidents. It said: “(The telephone conversation) was substantive and it was detailed. The two leaders spent the preponderance of their time discussing Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine, as well as the implications of the crisis for U.S.-China relations and the international order.” The media note also referred to President Biden’s message to President Xi on China’s Russia support. According to the statement, “President Biden made clear the implication and consequences of China providing material support — if China were to provide material support — to Russia as it prosecutes its brutal war in Ukraine, not just for China’s relationship with the United States but for the wider world.” On 16 March, President Biden said, “We are crippling Putin’s economy with punishing sanctions that’s going to only grow more painful over time with the entire NATO and EU behind us, and many other countries.” On 16 March, President Biden also said, “The American people are answering President Zelenskyy’s call for more help, more weapons for Ukraine to defend itself, more tools to fight Russian aggression. And that’s what we’re doing… On Saturday, my administration authorized another $200 million to keep a steady flow of weapons and ammunition moving to Ukraine. Now I’m once again using my presidential authority to activate additional security assistance to continue to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s assault — an additional $800 million in assistance. That brings the total of new U.S. security assistance to Ukraine to $1 billion just this week. These are direct transfers of equipment from our Department of Defense to the Ukrainian military to help them as they fight against this invasion.” On 17 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the German Parliament; in his message, he said: “This is the wall now, and it will grow ever taller. Chancellor Scholz, tear down this wall.” Earlier, on 16 March, he also addressed the US Congress. He reminded the Americans of the Pearl Harbour attack in 1941 and the 9/11 attack.
What happened?
What does this mean? As the War in Ukraine enters into the fourth week, the strategy of the West is getting clearer. First, the US and Europe do not want to engage Russia militarily in Ukraine. The objective of this strategy is to prevent a direct military engagement that could escalate into a larger regional war. The West aims to keep the war localized and limited to Ukraine. Second, though the West does not want to fight the Russian troops in Ukraine, it does not want Russia to expand its political and military footprint. The West aims to achieve this by arming Ukraine with advanced weapons. Third, the US and Europe want to pin down Russia by isolating Moscow politically and economically at the global level. The sanctions and phone calls are a part of this.
ALSO IN NEWS
India: Second security dialogue with Indonesia
On 18 March, Indonesia’s Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs of Indonesia, Mohammad Mahfud MD, met India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval in Jakarta. A statement by India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated: “the importance of traditional friendly relationship and Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the two countries and expressed confidence that the IISD would strengthen the cooperation between them to overcome common challenges and identified opportunities for further close collaboration in the field of political and security issues.” Both signed an MoU for security dialogue. Sri Lanka: India extends USD one billion line of credit
On 17 March, India and Sri Lanka signed an agreement in New Delhi to extend a “short term concessional loan facility” to Colombo. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said: “Neighborhood first. India stands with Sri Lanka. US$ 1 billion credit line signed for the supply of essential commodities. Key elements of the package of support extended by India.” The current assistance would help Sri Lanka import necessities like food and medicine. India till now has extended USD 2.4 billion to assist Colombo in its economic crisis. Russia: Kremlin warns against panic buying OOn 18 March, the Kremlin warned its citizens not to panic-
On 18 March, a media note
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WORLD THIS WEEK buy as a few regions reported shortages of staple goods across the country. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “Russians have absolutely no need to run to the shops and buy-up buckwheat, sugar and toilet paper.” However, at the same time, prices of food items have risen in Russia, and the economic implications of war were being felt on the ground. Moreover, the ruble also fell drastically due to Western sanctions and the disruption in the supply of imported food and goods. Russia: Western businesses unable to withdraw from Moscow due to legal complications On 18 March, the BBC reported about a few Western firms which could not withdraw from Russia due to legal arrangements. For example, Burger King stated that it would not be able to close its 800 stores as the franchise partners refused their closure. Restaurant Brands International president David Shear said: “We contacted the main operator of the business and demanded the suspension of Burger King restaurant operations in Russia. He has refused to do so.” Similarly, many other firms like Marks and Spencer (M&S) have not been able to shut down due to complex legal contracts. Russia: President Putin celebrates Crimea’s reunification
On 18 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin attended a concert that marked eight years of Crimea’s reunification with Russia. At the concert, Putin also said: “On our land, united by a common fate. This is what the people of Crimea and Sevastopol must have been thinking as they went to the referendum on 18 March 2014…Happy anniversary!” Putin further talked about how the people of Donbas and Ukraine felt the same way and added: “The main goal and motive of the military operation that we launched in Donbas and Ukraine is to relieve these people of suffering, of this genocide.” About the authors Avishka Ashok is a Research Associate at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. D Suba Chandran is a Professor and Dean at the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan is a Project Associate at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Angkuran Dey and Meghna Manoj are Postgraduate scholars at the Center for South Asian Studies at Pondicherry University.
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