Issues of peace, stability, sovereignty & territorial integrity part of China factor in Australia-India relations’, says Prof Kondapalli

Australia India News Newsdesk

Eminent person's oration was organized by the Institute for Australia-India Engagement in Brisbane, recently. Prof Kondapalli Kondapalli was in Australia to attend the Indian Ocean Conference at Perth. Prof Kondapalli Kondapalli from Jawaharlal University, New Delhi was invited to deliver his speech on the issue of the impact of the Chinese factor on Australia-India relations. Kondapalli Kondapalli is Professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He wrote two books (China’s Military: The PLA in Transition in 1999 & China’s Naval Power in 2001), two monographs, co-edited five volumes (Asian Security & China in 2004; China and its neighbours in 2010; China’s Military and India in 2012, China and the BRICS: Setting up a Different Kitchen in 2016, and One Belt One Road- China’s Global Outreach in 2017) and a number of articles in journals and edited volumes – all on China. He received the K.Subramanyam Award in 2010 for Excellence in Research in Strategic and Security Studies. Calling himself a student of China, Prof Kondapalli said that his presentation would be focused on China, because the China factor figures in AustraliaIndia relations. “This has become not really central in nature for the bilateral relations between Australia and India, but it has become one of the main forces.

For example, China is the largest trading partner for Australia at around $267 billion, and about $136 billion with India. So it has become the largest trading partner, which means basically China has the leverage to control various aspects of the bilateral relations. Once you become the largest trading partner, there are many ways that you can fiddle with the bilateral equations. For instance, in relation to Australia, there is the weaponization of trade, weaponization of tourism, weaponization of FDI”, Prof Kondapalli said in his speech. He went on to elaborate further on how China uses ‘weaponization’ technique in its relations with Australia.

Highlighting how China ‘coerces’ nations when its policies or acts of omissions or commissions are questioned, Prof Kondapalli said, “In many areas, China started doing this. For example, Australia raised the genuine issue of the origins of the virus. We all suffered from the virus, right? Many of our dear ones have passed away or had a very tough time between 2020 and 2022. So Australian leaders asked the Chinese to investigate, which is a very genuine concern, which is expressed in the international forum. Soon after Australia raised this issue on where the virus originated, China began restricting trade. Some 73% tariff increases took place on various products, and this resulted in the reduction in trade between Australia and China. Even today, Australian trade has not been restored to the previous levels when China used to trade. So China weaponized trade between the two countries.”

However, he said that this has not happened between China and India so far in terms of the weaponization. “That is partly because India-China trade is just about 1% for the Chinese, so it's not really much for the Chinese. Second, there is a huge trade deficit in favor of China in the India-China trade. Out of $136 billion, some $89 billion is the trade deficit that India has towards China. In the past 15 years, India has lost about $1.4 trillion in trade deficits to China. So there is no reason for China to weaponize trade because they were having surplus trade with India. India is exporting iron ore. 60% of the entire Indian exports is composed of iron ore, and the Chinese were exporting all the manufactured goods and the power equipment and various other goods and services. So they were earning a lot of money out of the India trade, and this has happened compared to what East India Company used to trade in the 19th century. East India Company used to export a lot of opium to Burma when Burma was part of the British Indian domains. And they had a surplus at the time, but now it is reversed. For the past, say, 20 years, India has run into huge trade deficits. Trade is one area where they have been able to really put pressure on various countries.”

But he cautioned that China can adopt similar tactics of ‘weaponization’ with India also. “Supposing if China weaponizes trade with India, we import something like 360 items which are high-valued, and if China blockades the API (application programming interface), the pharmaceutical ingredients, essential ingredients, then most of the generic drugs that Ranbaxy or other companies are producing, we will go into huge problems because the essential ingredients are coming from China at a very cheaper rate. Because it is coming at a cheaper rate, India has shut down many of these companies and given these contracts to China. But if China does the same thing as it did to Australia, there will be a tough time for the Indian economy because during COVID, China exported a lot of these oxygen concentrators because we were running out of oxygen in many hospitals during the peak time of COVID. So we imported some $82 billion worth of oxygen concentrator machines that were imported by India at that time during the COVID pandemic.

So if there is a weaponization that China does, which is quite possible because the Chinese Communist Party decides when to switch off the tap and when to switch on the tap. And so there is a concern that India had in relation to the China trade.”

“As far as Australia is concerned, $120 billion worth of goods and services like wine, beef, timber, lobsters, many of these were banned by China or tariff rates have been increased substantially. Anti-dumping duties were imposed on Australian products.

So Australia suffered in the immediate aftermath of the ban in April 2020. So China became a kind of central piece here. For both Australia and India, peace and stability are major areas of concern. If there is uncertainty, the stability issues are problematic because Australian and Indian economies are dependent on how much peace, how stability issues can be furthered. So that is the primary goal for both Australia and India,” Prof Kondapalli said.

Referring to the pressing issues in India’s relations with China, Prof Kondapalli said, “Peace and stability are essential for maintaining the economic growth rates. Second area more concerned with India is sovereignty and territorial integrity. We have the Doklam incident in 2017, which is actually a Bhutanese land but chased by the Chinese in Chumbi Valley, which is closer to the West Bengal, Nepal, Bhutan border areas.

And this has become a concern in 2017. Now in 2020 there was a clash between Indian soldiers and Chinese soldiers and 20 Indian soldiers were killed by the Chinese. The Chinese never gave accurate figures of how many of them were killed. But incidentally, the TASS news agency, which used to be the KGB, Russian KGB publication, gave a figure of 45 Chinese soldiers killed. The official figure that the Chinese gave was only four soldiers killed. So there is the obfuscation here on the figures.

But most importantly, since June 2020 when the incident took place, till now we have had no bilateral relations between India and China. So this has become a very major problematic area. Sovereignty and territorial integrity issues meant there are no bilateral relations.”

He highlighted the extent to which India’s relations with China have deteriorated. “We (India and China) used to have about 30 dialogue processes between India and China, including strategic dialogue between two foreign ministries, strategic and economic dialogue between NITI AAYOG and NDRC, (National Development Reform Council ) in Beijing. There is also the youth dialogue, there is the financial dialogue, there is the steel dialogue, iron and steel dialogue. We used to have about 30 dialogue processes. So these were all shut down and as of now, we have had a stalemate between India and China in the last three and a half years since June 2020. So sovereignty and territorial integrity issues are very important.”

Talking about an aspect of Australia-China relations, Prof Kondapalli said, “But I also wanted to connect here with Australia. Some of you may have gone to the Australian War Memorial. You may have come across a Chinese publication there, which says that Chinese started coming to Australia in 1788. There is no evidence to show that. Yet the book which is placed in the Australian War Memorial mentions this. But most importantly, Hu Jintao, the former president of China, addressed the Australian Parliament in Canberra, where he said that the Ming dynasty expeditions have come to Australia. This is 1327-28-29 during that time. So what the Chinese were driving at and what President Hu Jintao, although he did not use the word that the Chinese have discovered Australia, like Vasco da Gama did of India or Columbus did to South America or other islands, other areas, the tone that Hu Jintao had was, we were the ones who first discovered Australia. And this has become a discourse within the Chinese-Australian community in Australia.”

Talking about the basic contours of China’s foreign policy, Prof Kondapalli said, “ So what it basically means is that the Chinese have a five-pillar foreign policy strategy. First is relations with major powers, with neighbouring countries, developing countries, multilateral forums, and soft power. So the second one, relations with the neighbouring countries. Australia is a neighbour for China. They have considered, they have in their classified documents, considered Australia as a neighbour. By being a neighbour, probably here maritime neighbour, by being a neighbour, they wanted to also control the narrative in Australia.

So this is the agenda that China had, which affects the sovereignty and territorial integrity issues in relation to Australia as well.

In other words, China is trying to say that we are the original, not the British, not the other settlers that came during the James Cook, or others, during several centuries ago, but we are the ones, the Chinese are the ones who discovered you. Which means that we (the Chinese) have, even compared to the Europeans, European settlers, we have more right here in controlling resources, land, and other issues.

So this is the narrative that the Chinese have built up over a period of time. And this is where the major concern for Australia has been. So issues of peace and stability, issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity, are also part of the China factor in Australia India relations.”

Then Prof Kondapalli talks about other issues in bilateral relations with China, which are important for both Australia and India. “There are issues of trade. There are issues of FDI, foreign direct investment. There are also issues of tourism, people-topeople contacts, which in recent times have become problematic in relation to China. Then there is also the issue of the broader developments that are coming up in recent times. For instance, there is a Taiwan invasion scenario. I do not know how many of you are aware of this. In 2027, the Chinese military will celebrate its 100th anniversary. They were established in 1927.

So as a part of this, there is the reunification or unification with Taiwan. And every day, if you look at the newspapers, they are sending these balloons, which act as cyber attack devices or snooping onto the island in Taiwan. The Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-Wen was calling up her troops. She is the commanderin-chief of our troops, like in every other system, the president.

So the Chinese intercepted and said, we are listening to you.

That is the kind of sophistication the Chinese have now in the Taiwanese armed forces. And since Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. leader, the Senate leader, had gone to Taiwan in August 2022, there has been a major People's Liberation Army (PLA), exercises just about a few kilometers away from Taiwan, six to seven nautical miles away from Taiwan. They have been conducting these exercises. Very intensive, very intimidating exercises have been conducted. And hundreds of fighter aircraft, transports, electronic warfare and ships, they have two aircraft carriers now, which have surrounded the entire island of Taiwan. So there are the intimidatory tactics that the PLA has. So the speculation is that by the 100th anniversary of the PLA, they will be able to invade Taiwan.”

Prof Kondapalli also talked about the economic prowess of China and its defence budget. “And as you know, China is now a $17.8 trillion GDP country. India is about $3.9 trillion. So you can imagine the economic prowess of China. China spends nearly $300 billion on its defense budget. India spends about $72 billion. And Australia, I think in just double digits, has a very low defense budget, because Australia doesn't find the kind of threats that most other countries find in terms of invasion. And Australia being an alliance partner with the United States, much of this is taken care of by the United States.”

“For India, for instance, 45% of India's trade is passing through the South China Sea. So something happens in the South China Sea, it means India's rise is going to be problematic. And this is one reason why India joined the quagmire. India joined the bilateral equations with several countries, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and other countries. So there is the issue of sea lanes of communications, and the South China Sea broadly impacts on this. This is one of the reasons why QUAD has been formed. It is not to contain China, but it is to gather together and protect each other's rights, each other's maritime commerce. So that is the key feature of the QUAD, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India, “Prof Kondapalli said.

Talking about other alliances, he said, “In between, we also have the AUKUS, Australia, U.K., U.S. security arrangement, which basically means that the Americans are going to supply Australia with about eight submarines, nuclear submarines, nuclear power submarines. These are not nuclear missile submarines. There is a difference between SSN and an SLBM. So China started criticizing this AUKUS deal, even though China has more nuclear submarines than anybody in this region. So what the Chinese are saying is, we will have those submarines, but Australia should not have those submarines. So that is the key problem in terms of the AUKUS for the Chinese. So they have been very critical and trying to influence the narrative in terms of what is happening in the maritime zones here.”

Talking about China’s Belt and Road initiative, Prof Kondapalli said, “There is also the larger issue of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Now China spent about $956 billion in terms of the road, railway, energy pipelines, fiber optics, shipyard construction, or other infrastructure projects. They have held three Belt and Road Forum meetings, and one of them is to influence the global community through these infrastructure projects. Now Victoria State has concluded an MOU. Australia as a whole did not conclude an MOU on the Belt and Road Initiative. The reason being that 93% of the projects in BRI are handled by the state-owned enterprises in China.”

Explaining the Chinese economic model, Prof Kondapalli said, “These are not by the private sector. There is no private sector in China. Even under Chinese law, if there is a firm which employs more than seven people, it should have a Communist Party cell. In 1992, they passed this law. So even if you have a small restaurant which employs more than seven people, it will have a Communist Party cell. Communist Party cell provides for what is happening in the restaurant area and beyond because they can listen to a lot of conversations. So all this goes to the central committee of the Communist Party, and that is how the so-called private enterprises in China operate. It doesn't happen in Australia like this. They don't belong to the Liberal Party, and they don't belong to the Labour Party. Any one of those private enterprises that are present in Australia, it doesn't happen in India. If there is the Adani Group, Adani Group is not responsible for the BJP or the Congress or the ARC or other political parties. Under the Constitution, their rights are protected, their investments are protected. Under law, they are protected, the constitutional guarantees that are provided. In the case of China, this is problematic. You may have heard about Jack Ma, the Alibaba chief. He is now living in Japan. He ran first to Thailand. What he did was he said the Chinese banks are not providing enough credit to the private sector. This is what he said. And there is a lot of pressure on him, and his IPOs were cancelled. He is on the run now. So you can imagine. By the way, Jack Ma is a Communist Party member. Still, he has to run from his own country. That is what happens to those who have an independent view. But what he actually was suggesting is true, because much of the state-owned banks in China were giving credit to the state-owned enterprises, not to the private sector. And 52% of the GDP of China is run by the private sector, private entrepreneurs. Although they have party companies, etc., they are the ones who are generating so much of GDP.”

“ So the Belt and Road Initiative has also come to Australia. What has happened in the aftermath of the BRI announcement is that many Chinese-Australian community leaders started giving political donations to both the Labour Party and the Liberal Party. And this has become a key issue, and you have many scandals that I will just mention in a while in this. So China has become central to the domestic politics of Australia, and this is a major issue that is of significance. India never joined the Belt and Road Initiative, because BRI is passing through the Kashmir regions, the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir regions. So as a result, the Indian government, Prime Minister Modi himself had raised this issue whenever there was a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or any time where the Chinese leader was also present. He himself had raised this at the highest level on India's opposition to the BRI projects. So this is one issue as well,” he said.

Prof Kondapalli also talks about the historical position of Australia vis-à-vis India and China conflicts. “There is also, Australia has taken a position whenever a territorial dispute has occurred between India and China. For example, in 1962, when India and China fought, Australia took the position which is pro-India. Australia criticized the Chinese government for the kind of clashes that happened in 1962. Likewise, in the Doklam incident, also Galwan incident in 2020, the Australian foreign minister made a statement which basically mentioned that there should be stability in relations, which then meant it is an indirect criticism of the Chinese role in this borderrelated issue, sovereignty-related issues. I wanted to focus on Australia-China relations. So, as I was mentioning, since 1788, they (the Chinese) started saying that they were present in Australia, and so they should be given a special role, like the indigenous communities, or like the settlers who came to Australia four or five centuries ago. So this is one where we find a political problem between Australia and India.

Who is going to seize history?

That is the key factor here. It is sometimes like the Pakistanis claiming the Mughal dynasty as theirs, although Pakistan did not exist before 1947. So it is something of that sort that we hear in this. So we have Australia having diplomatic relations with Taiwan before, and subsequently a normalization after Henry Kissinger's visit to China in 72, 71, and then the Australians agree that Taiwan is part of China, but they have non-diplomatic relations such as commerce, investments, and various other areas. Australia and China were in different camps. There was a Korean War between 1951 to 1953, and Australia joined the United Nations forces led by the U.S. during the Korean War. During the Vietnam War as well, there was the, and recently the Australian army was present in the ISAF in Afghanistan. The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, put up on Twitter saying that the Australian soldiers were maltreating the Afghans.”

Prof Kondapalli also talked about China’s ambition to become a hegemon replacing the US, though China’s President Xi Jinping had denied any such intention of the Chinese, in his talks with American President Biden.

Prof Kondapalli also said that Australia and India relations are improving and strong. This is owing to the fact that both Australia and India are democracies, so they understand how the systems work in their respective countries.

In reply to a question asked during the question and answer session, whether there is truth in the news making rounds on social media that China is getting weaker in terms of its trade, investment, etc, Prof Kondapalli said that though there is an economic slowdown in China, they are still strong in terms of trade, investment, and other areas.